2016 trading and drafting (merged thread)

[Ludwig]

Part of me thinks that the club would be daft to use pick 9 on Brodie, if he's still there, because he's set to play the kind of role we already have players in abundance to fill. The other part of me thinks that you can never have enough tough, competitive ball winners and the club would be mad NOT to take him.

One of the things that turned me off Brodie, and perhaps the reason he seems to be dropping in many rankings, was the TAC championship game. Brodie, playing for the Bushrangers, didn't have much impact on the game. He seemed to let others on his own side do the work at the stoppages. He can take a strong mark. He took 2 with shots on goal dead centre from around 40 out and missed them both (no wind, the game was played under the roof at Etihad). He wasn't damaging with ball in hand.

Tim Taranto, playing for Sandringham, seemed to make things happen. He moved in and out of traffic, hit up targets. He missed a few shots on goal himself, but seemed to be in the play so often. Oliver Florent (Sandy) was also influential and looked a better player than Brodie as well.

Scrimshaw was dangerous when he was moved forward. He's very elusive for such a tall guy and is a good user of the ball by hand and foot. I doubt he will still be around at our pick though.

The Bulldogs are leading the way in the state of play. They have the players that can break the game open with hard running and contested ball winning. We've got the contested ball winning down okay. We need a bit more run and players that can hit targets in our forward line.

Brodie is a low risk player that will surely make the grade at AFL level and could well turn out to be one of the standouts in the next decade. He doesn't have to improve that much to become a damaging player. He could well turn into another Josh Kennedy, with a bit more pace. But right now, there are a few others that are having more impact on games and look to have more improvement left in them as well.

[liz]

I think it's dangerous to base assessments on a single game. Even JPK has played the odd stinker (very odd and I can't remember when the last one was) and plenty of long-term duds have had the odd super game. We have no idea of the impact of team instructions on any single game, nor do we know what injuries were affecting players. (It's been widely reported that Brodie had a few injuries throughout the last year).
'
I've seen none of these players actually play so all I can do is try to understand the kind of player someone is from descriptions. Even if I'd seen any of them, seasoned recruiters find it difficult to project underage attributes into senior ability and longevity (or they'd have fewer misses at the top of the draft). But I do think that recruiters tend to get swayed by the sexier attributes and factor in all sorts of blue sky into what players might deliver, and sometimes overlook a solid body of work a player has contributed throughout his junior career. I realise hindsight can be very dangerous, but even back in 2010 it was hard to understand how Luke Parker was still sitting on the board when pick 40 came around, given what he'd accomplished from age 11 or so onwards.

[Ludwig]

I think it's dangerous to base assessments on a single game. Even JPK has played the odd stinker (very odd and I can't remember when the last one was) and plenty of long-term duds have had the odd super game. We have no idea of the impact of team instructions on any single game, nor do we know what injuries were affecting players. (It's been widely reported that Brodie had a few injuries throughout the last year).
'

I realised how difficult it must be for list managers to have to work with so little material as the basis for important judgments. The all star game was a shocker for Tim English. The TAC cup championship may have been the biggest game the participants played in and we tend to judge players on how they perform on the big stage. Rohan, Tippett and Jetta have been lambasted for poor GF performances.

It's very easy to make mistakes based on 1 or a handful of games. Cedric Cox has an ordinary all star game, but there were a few moments when I you could see the kid has so much potential and took a real positive on him out of the game.

It's true what you've said about Brodie's injuries and he bloodied his nose when he whacked it into an umpire in the 1st quarter the cup final, and that alone could have affected his performance. Brodie's highlight reel looks great. He's able to get his long arms free to release the ball in traffic and he's got the frame to suggest that he will be a very strong player. He's obviously had a lot of very good performances to have been rated so highly.

There are so many top rated players who have had injury interrupted seasons, it really throws a spanner into the works. McGrath, Ainsworth, McCluggage and Taranto are the 4 that have stood out this year; you need a really big blanket to cover the next 20 and there surely will be many surprises in this group as their careers develop.

[707]

Don't think I've ever seen a draft where so many players are talked about so strongly or where there is such conjecture as to their likely draft range. For some reason I'm very comfortable that we will get two very good players at 9 and 19 with many more highly regarded players picked in the 20s.

Recruiting has advanced from the dark days of Lamb, Vespremi etc, I'm comforted by the thought of the KB team and our coaches recently spending several mornings looking at and rating a list of 40 players. They will make the right calls. we just need to be excited by the four names they call on Friday night and in a few years shake our heads at how a Luke Parker got through to us at 40 something.

It looks like those 40s picks will move up by 3 places with the collapse of GWS picks to make higher picks.

[YvonneH]

Being televised on Fox Footy at 6:30pm. Only 1/2 hour according to the TV guide.

[aardvark]

I'd be happy with Logue and Bolton. Can't see English going top 10.

[liz]

Being televised on Fox Footy at 6:30pm. Only 1/2 hour according to the TV guide.

According to the online guide I've just looked at, there is three hours of coverage, starting at 6.30pm EDST.

[CureTheSane]

I delete my Foxtel sport before the finals and make do with alternate sources for the last few F1 Grand Prix's
Every time I cancel sport I also delete HD and make a point of expressing amazement and disappointment that you have to pay $10 per month for what is pretty much the standard quality these days.
I'll rely on RWO for updates as to who is selected - I've seen the draft before and it's not exactly riveting stuff.

[Auntie.Gerald]

I like the online Live on the afl website

Or just go for a jog round the block and come back and review the swans website after the event

[crackedactor]

Yep - the need for speed...has seen us draft the likes of Hiscox, Jack and Towers. Admittedly none had (or has) "silky skills" but, more fundamentally, none has had the natural nous to know where the football is going that JPK, Hanners, Parker (and before them Kirk and Jude and Cressa and Schwatta) have in spades. Mitchell (the one we've lost) has it. Fortunately, so do Mills and Heeney, while Jones is showing reasonable signs.

Plus we already have Newman, COR and Leonardis developing nicely in the magoos. It's doubtful all three will "make it" but they've all shown enough to make us mildly optimistic.

One caveat to the above, especially in comparison to a Lamb or Vezspremi, is that several of this year's crop that will be in contention at picks 9 and 19 have demonstrated they do have good endurance to go with some pace and skills. Veszpremi was actually a natural footballer who could read the play. He was just never able to get himself close to fit enough to get to enough contests. And that was a decade ago, when the endurance demands on players weren't at the level they now are.

Part of me thinks that the club would be daft to use pick 9 on Brodie, if he's still there, because he's set to play the kind of role we already have players in abundance to fill. The other part of me thinks that you can never have enough tough, competitive ball winners and the club would be mad NOT to take him.

I thought Brodie's highlight reel was impressive and he would be a good get. Vezspremi could never get himself fit?? He had several years with the Swans and Bulldogs and I cannot recall any good games. Long time to get yourself fit!! I was thinking that Jordan Foote may make the grade, but not so sure now after he won the 3Km Time trial!! The last person to win that one was J Hiscox!! LOL.

[Ludwig]

I thought Brodie's highlight reel was impressive and he would be a good get. Vezspremi could never get himself fit?? He had several years with the Swans and Bulldogs and I cannot recall any good games. Long time to get yourself fit!! I was thinking that Jordan Foote may make the grade, but not so sure now after he won the 3Km Time trial!! The last person to win that one was J Hiscox!! LOL.

And to think that Freo bid pick 34 for him and we matched it. We let them off the hook with that one. But in fairness, the 2014 draft is looking to be one of the worst in recent years. It's a bit early to come to conclusions and a number of highly rated players have been injured, but so far not looking that great. Heeney will probably be the pick of draft and to think we got him at pick 18.

[Markwebbos]

Hiscox was a risk as he was a runner not an AFL player and it didn't work out. Surely you can look to draft a player that has the same attributes you look for in a player like Parker but also quick and can kick. No more soft players that can't tackle... or does that make them #1 draft pick?

[Nico]

There seems to be an assumption with some posters that a player like Logue will slot straight into the backline. He is only 18 and to expect him to come straight in is a big call. Callum Mills did but I doubt he is in his class.

[jono2707]

There seems to be an assumption with some posters that a player like Logue will slot straight into the backline. He is only 18 and to expect him to come straight in is a big call. Callum Mills did but I doubt he is in his class.

I'm in the camp of hoping we get Logue. However I don't think he needs to slot straight in next year, as our defence is looking pretty ok. Of course a top 10 pick is expected to get some game time but we'd be picking him with the idea that he'd hit his straps in year 3 or so when we'd probably need him to step up. A few games here and next year would be fine - unless of course he's another irresistible Mills type....

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I thought Brodie's highlight reel was impressive and he would be a good get. Vezspremi could never get himself fit?? He had several years with the Swans and Bulldogs and I cannot recall any good games. Long time to get yourself fit!! I was thinking that Jordan Foote may make the grade, but not so sure now after he won the 3Km Time trial!! The last person to win that one was J Hiscox!! LOL.

From memory Vespa had pretty nasty asthma that he couldn't seem to get over which held the poor bugger back in terms of his fitness and lung capacity. A shame really.

[YvonneH]

According to the online guide I've just looked at, there is three hours of coverage, starting at 6.30pm EDST.

I noticed that also (after I posted it was only 1/2 hour (which it was at the time)