2016 trading and drafting (merged thread)

[707]

I can't find anything on the TV broadcast guide whether the draft will be televised (Foxtel of free to air). Anyone know? I assume it will be.

According to AFL.com.au it is to be on Fox Footy Friday at 6.30pm.

Still hadn't appeared on the TV guide when I looked yesterday. The AFL however doesn't miss a chance to get these things on air so it will be telecast for certain. First time for three years we have something to get excited about after the certainty of Mills & Heeney in previous drafts took the surprise factor out although certainly not the excitement of those two players!

Last years draft was a bit of a @@@@ up presentation wise with the glitches and long delays so reckon the AFL will tighten it up this year to make it quicker and slicker.

[dimelb]

Emma Quayle's take on the top candidates:

All shapes and sizes, the best 30 in the draft

[Mug Punter]

Emma Quayle's take on the top candidates:

All shapes and sizes, the best 30 in the draft

I see Emma has Brodie slipping to 10 which is the lowest I've seen him predicted.

I would think we'd find it extremely hard to pass on him if he was still available.

My predictions

Pick 9 - Logue,Scrimshaw or Taranto
Pick 19 - Battle, Berry, Galluci or Florent

I like the look of the Fijian kid Esava Ratugolea should he be available for our fourth pick

[Ludwig]

Emma has the rankings around where I see it, although it doesn't mean the draft will follow the rankings. It's very hard to call where English and Marshall will be taken and so many players are so close in talent.

I see that Will Hayward has moved into her top 10 and I can understand why. He plays a lot like Gary Rohan. I was wondering if he should come into our 1st pick calculations as well, but can't decide.

We have to hope that someone bids on Jack Bowes before we do, so GC are forced to use their pick 8 on him.

I agree with MP, that it will be hard to pass on Brodie if he is there at our pick. He has all the attributes of a big inside mid, but with some decent pace to go with it. I really rate Taranto. He could end up the pick of the draft. I doubt he will be the one that slips on draft night.

That little group of players that Emma has around our 2nd pick, Berry, Gallucci and SPP are all quick and strong and very competitive. Any of them would be a good pick. She has Shai Bolton a little further down. He's like Jetta, but gets more involved in the action and is more evasive too. He's probably the best run and carry player in the draft.

Cedric Cox at Emma's rank 30 is a player with so much upside. It's hard to know how good he could be once he's in a professional environment. He has great skills and natural ability.

I worry that Josh Battle will be too easy to cover as a forward at AFL level, but he's a good user of the ball and has good game sense. I'm more inclined to go with a zippy forward at our 2nd pick.

Unless we take him at our 1st pick, it appears Jy Simpkin will go somewhere between our first 2 picks.

Names to look for at pick 46 are Bailey Morrish, Harry Morrison and Tom Williamson. All are very quick, good marks and good with ball in hand.

I still hope we pick Olango with 49, although Esava Ratugolea would be an interesting one. It's a very poor draft for ruckmen.

It will be interesting to see if we really gained anything by trading up to pick 9. I would be inclined to take Logue if available as we can get a quick midfielder at our second pick for draft balance.

[707]

To make the pick swap we must have our sights firmly on a player that should be there at pick 9 but we thought would be gone by pick 14. That means we thought GC, NM, WCE or Adel were into him.

Logue is the one that probably fits that profile.

[Auntie.Gerald]

New model to boost future recruiting strategies - AFL.com.au

[bloodspirit]

Personally, I am inclined to take KB at face value and believe that they don't have someone in particular in mind for pick 9 and they will wait and see who is available. I think Taranto will be gone by then. I am crossing my fingers for Scrimshaw - he excites me. I think there is a very real chance that Brodie will slip to us and we would have to consider him very strongly as a possible heir to JPK as our big mid. SPS might slip to pick 9 but I'll be pretty surprised if he slips to 19. I think if neither Scrimshow nor Brodie are available we should consider a bid on Perryman - at least forcing GWS to match if we can't get him. He seems to be rated top 10 on just about every list I have seen.

At 19 I am hopeful we can get one of the following: Simpkin, Hayward, Gallucci, English, Florent or Berry. I think it is very likely at least one of those will be available. I can't see SPS getting that far.

I think it is entirely possible, if not likely, that we will not use one of our 4 ND selections on a ruckman and we will wait for the rookie draft instead. I also reckon there is a great scope to get a quality KPD with our 3rd or 4th pick (if we want another one to join: Reg, AA, AJ, Talia, Melican and co.). Some candidates include: Rotham, Maibaum, Brennan Cox, Ridley, Macreadie, Sproule. While all of these have been rated well ahead of the 40s by some pundits they very likely won't all in fact be taken. I note that Declan Watson touted by Ludwig as a prospect for us at our 3rd/4th picks is tied to the Brisbane Lions academy and so is most unlikely to fall to us.

I was fascinated to hear KB say the recruiting team and coaches have reviewed all the prospects but only bothered to compile a list of their best 40, so sure are they that variations in people's preferences will mean that someone in their top 40 will still be available at pick 49. No wonder each year we hear them say "we think he's a bargain at pick X and had him rated much higher". No wonder every club is a winner on draft day.

[Ludwig]

There's not much incentive for Carlton and Freo to bid on Bowes, in fact not bidding on Bowes gives GC an extra pick before our first, which they may want to do anyway. It may not make any difference in the end. If Logue was our target player and he goes to GC at pick 8, then it would make a difference. We will still have a few good players to choose from at our pick, perhaps Brodie, Simpkin and Scrimshaw.

I don't know why so many pundits have us linked to Luke Ryan as our second pick when none of the draft experts even have him in their top 30. And he plays a position where we don't lack depth. I would be really annoyed if we picked him there. A pick in the 40s is more where he belongs.

There are also rumours that Oliver Florent may not want to leave Victoria for family reasons. I doubt he will get past WB's pick 18, unless they get a shot at Tim English.

I hope this year was just an aberration with our academy not producing anyone good. We really need to get a selection of local players like the other 3 academies seem to be doing.

[Billericay]

New model to boost future recruiting strategies - AFL.com.au

That's really interesting particularly why they rank players the way they do. I've got no idea who I want us to pick at 9 and 19, or who we will pick.

[707]

Personally, I am inclined to take KB at face value and believe that they don't have someone in particular in mind for pick 9

I don't subscribe to that if you analyse the pick swap with Port. We moved from 14 to 9 but slipped from 17 to 19 and 31 to 49. That's a lot of slippage if we didn't have a target in mind for pick 9, someone we knew wouldn't get through to 14.

I do like Pelchen's top 20 on the VFL website this morning, I don't like the guy but you have to admire his recruiting nous. This along with Emma Quayle's top 30 are the best guide IMO and both show we should get a very good player at 19.

Telecast of the draft still not on the Fox guide, what gives?

[707]

Emma Quayle's take on our draft position from this mornings Age, sums it up beautifully, highlights the problem at pick 9 and suggests why we did the pick upgrade. A bit of editing and highlighting by me

Depending on who is available, speed, skill and polish should be a priority ......... The one complication could be Will Brodie and his expected availability at pick 9. He would effectively take Tom Mitchell's spot, though he isn't necessarily what they need. The Swans' trade up to pick 9 got them inside West Coast and Adelaide as well as North Melbourne, the latter of whom are looking for players with similar attributes. Given Heeney and Mills are expected to start spending more time in the midfield, minimising the impact of Mitchell's departure, one other thing the club could look to do is find replacements for them on the half-forward and half-back lines. Jy Simpkin and Oliver Florent are two who should be around the mark; both hit the ball hard, create ways to goal and look like they will be able to play a part in both the forward line and midfield over time.They fit both bills. Will Hayward could be another possibility, and despite the emergence this year of Aliir Aliir Sydney could also look at bringing in another developing tall defender. It's difficult to see them doing that with their first pick unless Griffin Logue, who Gold Coast and Fremantle both have an interest in, makes it past those clubs to them.

[Markwebbos]

How much of a danger is there that Tim English will make it to pick 9... and that we'll pick him?

[Ludwig]

I'm becoming more to the belief that Brodie will be the big slider this year from early projections, and as EQ says, he's really not the kind of player we need. The top 5 are looking more settled to me (although not the exact order). Setterfield will probably get a bid from Carlton and GWS will match with their pick 15:

1. McGrath
2. Ainsworth
3. McCluggage
4. Taranto
5. SPS

So that leaves GC, Freo and GC again with the next 3 picks before us.

From GCs point of view, they will definitely come away with 3 good midifleder in Taranto (probably), Bowes and Brad Sheer, so they have another 2 picks to get some diversity. In the mix should be Tim English, Jack Scrimshaw, Will Hayward and Logue. Jarrod Berry and Jy Simpkin might also be in the mix.

GC will have to take English at 6 if the want him, else the risk is too great that he will be picked by Freo. If Freo want English but GC take him at pick 6, Freo are likely to be pissed off a bit and bid on Bowes, and then probably take Logue. That would leave Scrimshaw available to us. I'm warming to Scrimshaw and wouldn't mind him at pick 9.

The best case scenario, if we traded up for Logue, would be:

6. Bowes (matched Carlton bid)
7. Tim English
8. Scrimshaw

The worst case scenario would be:

6. Scrimshaw
7. Logue
8. Simpkin

My current rankings, subject to change, for our 1st pick are:

1. Logue
2. Scrimshaw
3. Simpkin
4. Berry
5. Hayward
6. Brodie

Brodie is a very good player and I'm sure he will develop into a solid midfielder, but we need outside pace and foot skills and Brodie is not in that kind of player.

When we traded up we probably figured that Brodie and Bowes would be taken in the top 8, but that's looking less likely. I hope Simpkin is still available as a choice for us.

So my worst case is that we take Jarrod Berry and I don't think that's all that bad. It's actually not at all evident how those 6 players in the mix for our 1st pick will rank in a few years time.

[707]

Carlton bid on a GWS academy player? Isn't that biting the hand that feeds you?

Big test here for Carlton (now known as GWS reserves) and SOS. By all rights Carlton at pick 5 SHOULD bid on Setterfield but I bet they don't, not wanting to annoy GWS, SOS will leave the dirty work up to Gold Coast at 6 or 8 or Freo at 7 - or god forbid that it gets as far out as us at 9 to keep GWS honest as that would make Setterfield a bargain, like Hopper was last year!

[Auntie.Gerald]

It is a great argument and like most times in life (except for the recent USA election and Trump winning) I'm sure the answer lies between all extremes

If Grundy was 28 yrs old right now we wouldn't even be talking about Logue but because Grundy only has one or two years more in him it is a massive factor from a risk management point of view re our backline KP players

.......

for me if the Swans believe they don't need Logue for a KP defender well they probably are right.............and for us punters if in doubt you can't go wrong with top level midfielders as along as they are staggered in annual wages vs sal cap.......there could be a $350k pa saving on Mitchell vs a Brodie as an example for the next 2 seasons.......and that makes all the difference right NOW

midfield dominance is the core of our strategy and we play on the SCG every other week which works best for a midfield contested battle style of footy hence we recruit for midfield dominance!!!!

Adding Taranto or Brodie etc to Mills and Heeney in the midfield plus Hannes, Jack, Kennedy, Jones, Hewett, Paps etc just makes us a pack that would be very very very hard to get on top of........one or two less midfielders and we can drop from a top 4 team to outside the top 8

2012 GF a great example of shear contested footy and tackling etc beating a superior team that usually kicked a lot straighter

The Swans year in year out are a great example with non elite players being recruited and then developed in to very competent back line players etc etc