2016 trading and drafting (merged thread)

[S.S. Bleeder]

Does anyone know what the current situation with Alex Villis is? He was touted as top 20 but has fallen right down since his health problems. As a running outside mid, I'd be willing to take a punt on him with our 3rd or 4th pick.

[caj23]

Does anyone know what the current situation with Alex Villis is? He was touted as top 20 but has fallen right down since his health problems. As a running outside mid, I'd be willing to take a punt on him with our 3rd or 4th pick.

Someone on the other site suggested that his heart condition is serious enough to prevent him from playing sport at elite levels, thus he won't be drafted

[Auntie.Gerald]

Given that a lot of supporters didn't think AA would so easily replace Ted in 2016 as a key defender..........

Is it possible that between Talia and AJ and Melican etc that we will have a certain replacement for Grundy in a season or two if Grundy retires etc hence this may influence our decision making around pick 9 ?

[Markwebbos]

Given that a lot of supporters didn't think AA would so easily replace Ted in 2016 as a key defender..........

Is it possible that between Talia and AJ and Melican etc that we will have a certain replacement for Grundy in a season or two if Grundy retires etc hence this may influence our decision making around pick 9 ?

Both Beatson and Harley have said we'll draft best available at 9 and 19 and talls after that

[rb4x]

Not sure about the obsession with Logue. He does look a very good player but we have Grundy, Aliir, Talia, Rampe, Laidler, Johnson(hopefully) and if necessary Reid and Rohan who play tall in defence plus Mills, Newman, Marsh, Jones, Smith, Lloyd, Cunningham and if necessary McVeigh to fill out the back six. Our defence depth looks good with those 14 names and I can not see Logue making the back six ahead of nine of those names. Our key forward and ruck depth though is very shallow. Key forwards are Franklin, Tippett (part time as he rucks 50%) and Reid who has been AWOL for one year. Next in line are Towers, Rohan and Dawson if he can get fit and make the grade. Equally our rucks are down to three Naismith(undergoing rehab from a shoulder reconstruction) Tippett (part time) and Sinclair returning from injury followed by no one. I see English who could in two years be the replacement for Tippett as just an important target as Logue who in two years could replace Grundy. We certainly will not be able to get both and possibly neither will be available at pick 9 but if either were there I would be taking them in preference to a midfielder. There will be good mid fielders available at pick 19 but no KPP player of the promise of either English or Logue. If both English and Logue are gone by pick 9 then one of the very highly rated mids must be there as there are at least seven that look the goods outside of Setterfield.

[bloodspirit]

I don't subscribe to that if you analyse the pick swap with Port. We moved from 14 to 9 but slipped from 17 to 19 and 31 to 49. That's a lot of slippage if we didn't have a target in mind for pick 9, someone we knew wouldn't get through to 14.

You might be right but I'm not convinced. I think it was a pretty even swap of picks and reflects the fact that we have a stronger list than Port. They need quantity of fresh talent whereas we can afford to focus more on quality and pay more (in terms of pick value). However it does suggest that we think there is a significant difference in quality between pick 9 and 14 and we must intend picking a different, better player than we expected to get if we had stuck with pick 14. But I still take KB at face value. I reckon we have rated our top 40 in the draft in order and whichever is the player that is ranked highest on our list who is still available when it gets to our turn will be our choice.

rb4x, I agree with your analysis of our list needs (although perhaps you've overstated the case by counting Reid and Rohan as tall defenders but not counting them as forwards). Still I don't think that will or should dictate our selections, with pick 9 in particular.

Anyway, I give our recruiters pretty much a blank cheque. I trust them to choose and will back them in almost irrespective of their choices (for now - I would be prepared to judge them with the benefit of hindsight in years to come, allowing of course for the fact that they won't have the benefit of hindsight themselves when they make the selections). This is all just fun guessing.

On a marginally related note, I was perusing the afl.com.au article about 2015 draftees and was pleased to see that it looks like the Queensland clubs have been drafting well. They desperately need good talent coming through and I hope they get it.

[Ludwig]

Given that a lot of supporters didn't think AA would so easily replace Ted in 2016 as a key defender..........

Is it possible that between Talia and AJ and Melican etc that we will have a certain replacement for Grundy in a season or two if Grundy retires etc hence this may influence our decision making around pick 9 ?

It's hard to say what will happen with Melican. He hasn't had a great run with injuries, but has looked good at times. Apparently we thought highly enough of him to give him a third year on the rookie list. It's great to see AJ progressing so well, but no one will be making any prognostications at this stage. We can only be hopeful.

I'm still optimistic that Talia will eventually take over at FB from Reg. He has the right profile for a modern day KPD and is willing to take the game on. I think he could fit in this season along with Reg and AA.

Due to kinds of players available in this draft, I think Logue is still a prime prospect despite playing mostly as a KPD. He also played in the midfield and forward as well. It's rare to find someone of his size and athleticism who can also play the game at a high level.

It's good to see Nic Newman pushing hard for a starting spot. He must have gone into a panic when he heard we were interested in Luke Ryan. It's also exciting to see how far COR can go this year. He's shown that he's got endurance with his 3km run today.

The reason I don't want Brodie is that Hewett needs to play in the midfield. He's a great kick for goal, but he doesn't have the pace to be a true forward. I'm not worried about Heeney, Mills or Jones, who can all play just about anywhere. We effectively lost Tom Mitchell for pick 9. I think we need to use it to change the balance of the list in favour of speed and kicking skills. We have loads of contested ball winners.

Tim English would be the last player I would take. I know he is rated highly by many, but it is worth watching the under 18 all star game. English dropped every ball that came his way. He was also outplayed in the ruck. I though it was Kyle Galloway for a moment there. He probably just had an off day, but it wasn't pretty to watch. I honestly think Tony Olango is a better ruck prospect. In any case, Naismith has a lot of years ahead of him and he looks to be our starting ruckman this year. Sinclair will struggle to get out of the NEAFL.

Both Beatson and Harley have said we'll draft best available at 9 and 19 and talls after that

How would it sound if they said they were planning to take the 2nd best player available? No one is giving away any secrets.

[rb4x]

Hi bloodspirit. I did count Reid and Rohan as forwards as well as defenders though I am not sure if Reid can be counted as anything and I am very disappointed with Rohan after a second Grand Final where he had no impact when needed. Our shortage of tall forwards saw the Swans trying to convert the Richards brothers into tall forwards with little success and they are now both gone along with Nankervis and Davis which leaves us very short in more ways than one. English and Logue are the only two talls who I rate as reasonably early prospects in the draft this year and I think either would take two years before contributing much. We probably will look for a couple of talls in the rookie draft but they will be longer term prospects. Max Lynch who is GWS academy but not nominated by GWS was the Allies number one ruckman might be a rookie prospect. Ned Reinhard is the only tall in our academy nominations and he would be fortunate in my opinion if we took him in the rookie draft.

[Cosmic Wizard]

Ok people, time to put money down on the table!

Let see who can get as close as possible to who we actually pick

For each pick, 9,19,46,49, you can have three choices: your first pick gets 5 points if correct, second 3 points and third 1 point.

Biggest score get bragging rights for the year!

Here goes my picks!

Pick 9: 1) Logue 2) Brodie 3) Tarranto

Pick 19: 1) Venables 2) Bolton 3) Witherden

Pick 46: 1) Drew 2) Mitch McCarthy 3) Brennan Cox

Pick 49: 1) Mitch McCarthy 2) Morrison 3) Ratugolea

The Swans traded up for a reason.

Mills and Heeney are literally top 1-3 recruits, both midfielders so that that covered.

But Logue is also a midfielder, coming from a backline position.

But we have been missing a Lewis-Thompson swing player, and that where Logue fits in.

He can do many things, even pinch hit in the ruck.

It will be interesting come Friday night!

[Ludwig]

Pick 9: 1) Simpkin 2) Logue 3) Berry

Pick 19: 1) Gallucci 2) Bolton 3) SPP

Pick 46: 1) Morrish 2) Morrison 3) Williamson

Pick 49: 1) Olango 2) Lyons 3) Poholke

[bloodspirit]

Hi bloodspirit. I did count Reid and Rohan as forwards as well as defenders

Right you are! My apologies. Also agree with your main point that our KPFs and rucks need bolstering. Problem is this is not a great draft for KPFs. So we should certainly consider English/Marshall/Battle at 19 if they are available.

I also agree with Ludwig that a pacy midfielder would be suit our needs but these are a less rare commodity. That's why someone like Florent, Berry, Gallucci or even Bolton at 19 is a good choice.

So my preferences for who we take in order are (for players who might be available at that pick):

At pick 9: SPS, Scrimshaw, Perryman, Logue, Taranto, Brodie, Simpkin. Because SPS, Taranto and Scrimshaw are quite likely to be gone and GWS will probably hang on to Perryman I think it could come down to a choice between Logue and Brodie and that is a tough choice. I'll tip Logue but I'll be happy with either and delighted if we get SPS or Scrimshaw.

At pick 19: Simpkin, Hayward, English, Florent, Berry, Marshall, Gallucci, Bolton, Battle. It's very difficult (for me, at least) to know who will still be available. I suspect at least 2 of the last three and at least 1 of the first 6 will be available. If we get one of those first 5 players, I'm very happy, and even if it's one of the last 4, I think it's still pretty good. I will be less excited about someone like Ryan or Ridley or Cox or Graham at that pick. Nor do I expect us to go for the worthy Venables or Witherden.

At our third pick, especially if we didn't get Logue, we should look at pouncing on a defender like Ridley, Brennan Cox, Rotham or Macreadie. If we are lucky one of them will slip through.

4th pick: grab a bargain. e.g. Someone like Graham or Ryan if they have slipped a long way. I also agree with whoever said we should be looking closely at the GWS academy players at our later picks because they can't take them all e.g. Mutch, Garthwaite, Sproule. We haven't had too much of a problem with players wanting to 'go home' (Jetta being the notable exception) but still is great if we can get NSW talent on our list and we would be better placed to assess them than most clubs given our involvement with the Allies team and the amount we play GWS at all levels. At those picks, I think it's pointless in me even hazarding a guess and I will back our recruiters to get it right.

As I have already posted, I expect us to seek a ruck in the rookie draft. There was one from SA (or was it WA? I can't remember his name) that I thought could be worth a go. Obviously Olango has been much talked about (mostly by Ludwig) but he might not be available when our pick comes around. Max Lynch is another possibility.

[undy]

Tim English would be the last player I would take. I know he is rated highly by many, but it is worth watching the under 18 all star game. English dropped every ball that came his way. He was also outplayed in the ruck. I though it was Kyle Galloway for a moment there. He probably just had an off day, but it wasn't pretty to watch. I honestly think Tony Olango is a better ruck prospect. In any case, Naismith has a lot of years ahead of him and he looks to be our starting ruckman this year. Sinclair will struggle to get out of the NEAFL.

Pretty sure that Sinclair will get game time, its not often that ruckmen go the whole season uninjured and because we like to play 2, whoever is 3rd cab should still clock up a fair number of games.

[S.S. Bleeder]

Not sure about the obsession with Logue. He does look a very good player but we have Grundy, Aliir, Talia, Rampe, Laidler, Johnson(hopefully) and if necessary Reid and Rohan who play tall in defence plus Mills, Newman, Marsh, Jones, Smith, Lloyd, Cunningham and if necessary McVeigh to fill out the back six. Our defence depth looks good with those 14 names and I can not see Logue making the back six ahead of nine of those names. Our key forward and ruck depth though is very shallow. Key forwards are Franklin, Tippett (part time as he rucks 50%) and Reid who has been AWOL for one year. Next in line are Towers, Rohan and Dawson if he can get fit and make the grade. Equally our rucks are down to three Naismith(undergoing rehab from a shoulder reconstruction) Tippett (part time) and Sinclair returning from injury followed by no one. I see English who could in two years be the replacement for Tippett as just an important target as Logue who in two years could replace Grundy. We certainly will not be able to get both and possibly neither will be available at pick 9 but if either were there I would be taking them in preference to a midfielder. There will be good mid fielders available at pick 19 but no KPP player of the promise of either English or Logue. If both English and Logue are gone by pick 9 then one of the very highly rated mids must be there as there are at least seven that look the goods outside of Setterfield.

I Doubt take we would English. With Naismith our number 1 ruck position is set for the next several years. We also have Tippett as our 2nd ruck and Sinclair as back-up. We do need a ruckman for the NEAFL but surely we can find one of those in the rookie draft. In addition with English, he's going to take at least a few years to develop and I'm not keep on putting resources into an interstate player only to see him go home and for us to get no return on our investment.

I think that Logue would be a great addition for us. I can't see either of Laidler or AJ being in our seniors team if we have a fit squad in 2017. Logue would fit into our back half nicely with AA, Rampe, Grundy and Smith. Having such mobile and versatile defenders in Logue and AA rebounding off half back would add extra attack to the team. I'm hopeful that Talia can make it as a full back after Grundy but there is doubt about him. I'd like to see Mills, Jones and even Rampe spending more time in the midfield next year.

Ideally, I would like to see us take Logue with our first pick and then an outsider with excellent foot skills with pick 19. In the event that Logue is gone before pick 9 I'd like to see us go for someone like Simpkin or Florent with that pick and take a KPD such as Cox with pick 19.

I do think we need a KPF and Marshall being home grown would suit this. He's an unknown quantity but with a very high ceiling if he succeeds.

[Steve]

I think realistically, the other consideration we need to give is the likelihood of some of these 'attribute' players actually breaking into what is a very good team within 2-3 years.

It's fine to say we need speed, a creative half-forward type etc etc - but you easily can end up with a Jed Lamb, Pat Veszpremi type who might have done OK if they went to a poor club and got chances early, but can't impact games enough to hold a spot in a good team like Sydney.

Equally we've had a few picks over the years in the 10-20 range who have had good skills, but just couldn't find enough of the footy - hence also unable to break into a good team.

Even Rohan and Jetta, who have had success in playing plenty of footy, have been very inconsistent and generally played poorly in big games.

IMO it's fine to go with one of the x-factor types with pick 19, but if Brodie is there at pick 9, it would seem to be a mistake to pass him over.

[liz]

I think realistically, the other consideration we need to give is the likelihood of some of these 'attribute' players actually breaking into what is a very good team within 2-3 years.

It's fine to say we need speed, a creative half-forward type etc etc - but you easily can end up with a Jed Lamb, Pat Veszpremi type who might have done OK if they went to a poor club and got chances early, but can't impact games enough to hold a spot in a good team like Sydney.

Equally we've had a few picks over the years in the 10-20 range who have had good skills, but just couldn't find enough of the footy - hence also unable to break into a good team.

Even Rohan and Jetta, who have had success in playing plenty of footy, have been very inconsistent and generally played poorly in big games.

IMO it's fine to go with one of the x-factor types with pick 19, but if Brodie is there at pick 9, it would seem to be a mistake to pass him over.

Yep - the need for speed...has seen us draft the likes of Hiscox, Jack and Towers. Admittedly none had (or has) "silky skills" but, more fundamentally, none has had the natural nous to know where the football is going that JPK, Hanners, Parker (and before them Kirk and Jude and Cressa and Schwatta) have in spades. Mitchell (the one we've lost) has it. Fortunately, so do Mills and Heeney, while Jones is showing reasonable signs.

Plus we already have Newman, COR and Leonardis developing nicely in the magoos. It's doubtful all three will "make it" but they've all shown enough to make us mildly optimistic.

One caveat to the above, especially in comparison to a Lamb or Vezspremi, is that several of this year's crop that will be in contention at picks 9 and 19 have demonstrated they do have good endurance to go with some pace and skills. Veszpremi was actually a natural footballer who could read the play. He was just never able to get himself close to fit enough to get to enough contests. And that was a decade ago, when the endurance demands on players weren't at the level they now are.

Part of me thinks that the club would be daft to use pick 9 on Brodie, if he's still there, because he's set to play the kind of role we already have players in abundance to fill. The other part of me thinks that you can never have enough tough, competitive ball winners and the club would be mad NOT to take him.