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Why the dislike for a mid season draft. We picked up Dale Lewis mid season and he was a very good get.
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I don't know how trading on draft day will go in the AFL. It might have to be quite limited because of the way player contracts are structured.
I don't know all the details of the NBA draft, but it seems that players have less to say about where they get traded, so the clubs have a lot more flexibility. One thing I have noticed about the NBA is that a minority of players are with the club that drafted them after 2 years, many not even lasting till the first season.
Suppose we were really keen on Tom McCartin, but he was taken a pick or 2 before our second pick. Perhaps we might trade our current 2nd round pick plus a future pick, which might be enough to pull off the trade.
Suppose we get to our 1st round pick in this draft and no one has bid on Blakey. We might sell our first round pick for later or future draft picks, knowing we could draft him with 2nd round picks.Last edited by Ludwig; 19 April 2018, 02:48 PM.Comment
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Just to be clear, I'm pretty sure 'live trading' only includes picks - not players.All opinions are not equal. Some are a very great deal more robust, sophisticated, and well supported in logic and argument than others. -Douglas Adams, author (11 Mar 1952-2001)
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That's my understanding too. At present, AFL players have to consent to being traded. That's different to the NBA and maybe other US major leagues. Until the AFLPA is prepared to give this up, live trading of players on draft night isn't going to happen.
I can conjure up some scenarios where a mid draft pick trade might happen but they are few and far between and I doubt the competence of most clubs to execute them.
Say it's the 2017 draft and it gets to pick 14 - Sydney. The Swans had been hopeful ( but not optimistic that a particular player might slip to them but he's been taken a couple of picks earlier. Their next preferred player is Ling, but they think he is probably gettable with a pick in the early 20s. On the other hand, they have their eye on McCartin at pick 30 but they are worried he might go in the late 20s. There's another club with picks (say) 19 and 27 so they sound out that club about swapping 14 and 30 for 19 and 27. In practice, they'd probably have identified the scenario and possible trade partner before the draft started because otherwise the process would be impractical. But even if they had, they'd need to be pretty confident that a club wasn't going to snap up Ling in the next few picks.
As I've already said, I think such scenarios would be pretty rare. Plus executing them would depend on there being another club with the right combination of picks that sees value for them in doing the trade.
I see more value in allowing clubs to continue to trade picks after the end of the trade period, right up to the start of the draft. As the draft approaches, clubs will form better views on their targets and the likely draft ranges of those targets. I'm not convinced of the benefit of introducing a long, drawn out draft process to enable mid draft trading.Comment
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West Coast traded down their first and up their second with another club because they wanted local boy Duggan who was highly unlikely to go before the later first pick they traded in.
Crows did the same swapping picks with Geelong who took Cockatoo with pick 10 whilst the Crows moved out to pick 14 because they wanted Lever (coming off an ACL) and they knew he wasn't being picked before 14. The upside for the Crows was a healthy jump in their second pick from late 30s to mid 20s.
We of course moved up the draft to snare Florent whilst moving back our second pick where we fortunately snagged draft slider Hayward.
Whilst media and supporters do phantom drafts, I think the clubs are fairly spot on about where players will go, particularly first rounders.
I also like the idea of swapping picks after the trade period right up to a few days prior to the draft as players rise or fall in rankings.Last edited by 707; 19 April 2018, 04:17 PM.Comment
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Quite a bit of pick for pick trading has happened since the AFL abolished the requirement that at least one player was involved in any trade. But all those trades have taken place in October, during the trade period, and at that time out from the draft, clubs can't be sure who will be available at which pick. Things tend to become clearer, the closer you get to the draft, although only the top few picks seem to be predictable even a couple of days out from the draft. When Sydney traded with Port last year, I doubt they specifically had Florent in mind (particularly given they actually bid for Bowes with that pick). But Beatson stated that he thought there was a bit of a drop off in talent around the end of the top 10, which is why he was interested in trading up. Presumably Port thought there was a bit of a drop off in the late teens, which is why they were keen to trade down and up.
There'll always be some clubs - and even more so media pundits and amateur BF draft commentators - who obsess over the points values that the AFL has attributed to picks for the purposes of academy and FS bidding, and focus on those in evaluating the equity of a pick trade and determining "who won". But smart clubs - and I think most are probably smart - will focus more on their perception of the talent contours, mix/quantity of different types of player available, and their own specific list requirements to identify win/win trades with similarly focussed clubs.
I just don't see how, in practice, they'll achieve this during the time constraints of the live draft, rather than during the lead up to the draft.Comment
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I should wind back my earlier statement. In my head I had extrapolated ?mid season draft? to include mid season trading of players. It was trading during the season that I am opposing.
So, how would a mid season draft work? Would all clubs take part or only those who want/need to? Presumably clubs could delist players mid season to create list space for new draftees? How would the salary cap be affected?
Swans/Kurt Tippett have been used as an example of where there could be an advantage to a club to be able to use a mid season draft. But I assume even had such a system been in place this year, for salary cap reasons we could not have used it.Comment
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Twomey is reporting that Sydney was interested in De Goey last year. Good player but must have failed the no dickheads test.Comment
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Not a current situation but a blast from the recent past. Interesting article on the Tom Mitchell to Hawthorn trade.
How Tom Mitchell became a trade bargain - AFL.com.au
It sounds like a pretty accurate summation of how it all unfolded. The last bit is quite well put.....
"As a footnote, it's worth noting Sydney received pick No.14 in the Mitchell trade, a selection they used as part of a subsequent trade that helped them secure Oliver Florent (No.11 overall) and Will Hayward (No.21) in that year's draft.
Anyone sense a win-win trade?" ........ at this point, the Hawks are ahead but we did well.
Plus there's an interesting bit on the Suns making a late play for him.......Last edited by stevoswan; 19 April 2018, 09:11 PM.Comment
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It was well known that the Suns made a play for him but reports were that he wasn't interested in going there (or maybe not interested in playing for a crap side). I was surprised that other Melbourne clubs didn't make a stronger pitch for him once it became apparent he wasn't a cert to re-sign with the Swans. It's not as if the Hawks financial offer was going to blow everyone else out of the market (suspected previously but confirmed by this article).
I don't think the article does much more than sum up how most of us (or many, at least) already thought about the trade but it is a good, balanced article. I find Bowen to be one of the more knowledgeable writers on AFL.com. He seems to realise there are clubs outside Melbourne and even knows a fair bit about them (unlike some others on there).Comment
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1. I saw an article the other day reporting that de Goey is out of contract this year and several clubs are interested.
2. There never was a 'no dickheads' policy: see Rise of the Swans or the recent Roos' memoir, Here it is!. The only basis for the assertion is the emphasis we put on 'character'. We don't expect all our recruits to be 'choirboys' or to come from private school backgrounds and we took chances on players like BBBH and Spida over the Roos era.
de Goey is a talented player and I wouldn't be against it if our recruiters decided to recruit him at the right price. At the moment it's looking like we need to bolster our onball department, after all these drafts going for outside mids and class (like Jones, Florent, Hayward, Ling etc). We could really use a player like Mitchell. Too bad he decided to leave.
Incidentally, on Mitchell, what I took from that recent article was that Hawthorn may have valued him more but we didn't tacitly decide to let him go in favour of our other players - we just couldn't afford him, especially given the timing of his contract coming up. Anyway, I'm sure he's not looking back. My main gripe is that we gave him away for pick 14 (less than he was worth when he was originally drafted from memory) and that felt like big time unders, even at the time.All opinions are not equal. Some are a very great deal more robust, sophisticated, and well supported in logic and argument than others. -Douglas Adams, author (11 Mar 1952-2001)Comment
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We traded Mitchell quickly so we didn't get caught up in the developing O'Meara trade quagmire. We probably couldn't see how Hawks could get a higher pick to trade to us for Mitchell and still get the O'Meara trade done, that was a trade the Hawks were committed to having lured him away from Gold Coast.
We just need to move on from an inside mid who is easily tagged out of games :-)Comment
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Exactly. There's no point holding out for more when the other club doesn't have any more to give unless what's available is manifestly unreasonable. And on exposed form with the Swans, his "fair" value wasn't a huge amount more than what we got. Dealing early enabled the club to then swap pick with Port, something they wouldn't have been able to do had they held out until the end of trade week, hoping (but probably not getting) something better for Mitchell.
And bear in mind that the Hawks traded out Kennedy to us with little fuss - I read somewhere that Chris Pelchen was intending to nitpick and demand more but that Dunstall (who I believe was football director at the time) just told him to get it done quickly.Comment
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