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None of those players I listed was a zone selection nor a FS (*). Current day FS and academy selections are bid upon where other clubs feel they sit in the pecking order, so if they're taken after wherever the "useful cut-off" is, they're still taken with later picks. And since the rookie draft comes at the end of the national draft, any player taken in the rookie draft is, by definition, a late draft pick.
The reason why the hit rate looks a bit higher from the rookie draft than the later rounds of the ND is purely a numbers game - ie clubs will typically take two or three players in the 3rd or later rounds of the national draft, but then might load up half a dozen or more rookies. Clubs need to churn through a fair number of players to find those who have what it takes to play senior AFL, so if you're churning through twice as many players via the rookie system as you are the later picks in the ND, in pure number terms you may uncover more rookies who last.
But clubs also have to churn through players taken earlier in the draft. There's no threshold where the likelihood of finding a good player suddenly drops off - or if there is, it's somewhere well within the top 10 picks. Johnston, DOK, Willougby, Towers, Lamb, Vezspremi and hosts of others taken by other clubs are testament to that.
In terms of clubs needing points, those who expect to have players bid upon in the first 20 or so picks have already shuffled their picks and points around. North and the Pies look a bit light on for points (but only marginally so) but neither holds a pick in the 20s. The one exception is the Bulldogs, who currently hold pick 27, likely to be pick 29-30 after earlier academy bids. They may see an advantage in trading that pick for a couple of ours that give them more points to match a bid on West. But I suspect a number of clubs will have their eye on that pick, and the Dogs may land up trading it down before draft night. As the Mase pointed out a week or so ago, the biggest value to the Swans comes in waiting until after Blakey has been drafted before trading up.
The cost of matching bids later in the draft isn't that high, and I reckon most, if not all, clubs will reckon they can easily match with what they have and won't see the need to trade down any picks in the 20s or 30s.
(*) One did slip onto my list, Naismith. But he's the only one.
The reason why the hit rate looks a bit higher from the rookie draft than the later rounds of the ND is purely a numbers game - ie clubs will typically take two or three players in the 3rd or later rounds of the national draft, but then might load up half a dozen or more rookies. Clubs need to churn through a fair number of players to find those who have what it takes to play senior AFL, so if you're churning through twice as many players via the rookie system as you are the later picks in the ND, in pure number terms you may uncover more rookies who last.
But clubs also have to churn through players taken earlier in the draft. There's no threshold where the likelihood of finding a good player suddenly drops off - or if there is, it's somewhere well within the top 10 picks. Johnston, DOK, Willougby, Towers, Lamb, Vezspremi and hosts of others taken by other clubs are testament to that.
In terms of clubs needing points, those who expect to have players bid upon in the first 20 or so picks have already shuffled their picks and points around. North and the Pies look a bit light on for points (but only marginally so) but neither holds a pick in the 20s. The one exception is the Bulldogs, who currently hold pick 27, likely to be pick 29-30 after earlier academy bids. They may see an advantage in trading that pick for a couple of ours that give them more points to match a bid on West. But I suspect a number of clubs will have their eye on that pick, and the Dogs may land up trading it down before draft night. As the Mase pointed out a week or so ago, the biggest value to the Swans comes in waiting until after Blakey has been drafted before trading up.
The cost of matching bids later in the draft isn't that high, and I reckon most, if not all, clubs will reckon they can easily match with what they have and won't see the need to trade down any picks in the 20s or 30s.
(*) One did slip onto my list, Naismith. But he's the only one.
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