2018 trading, drafting and list management: players and personnel

[S.S. Bleeder]

[QUOTE=Blood Fever;759000]

Looks like Lloyd will be leaving then.


Not into rumours but believe Brisbane are into Lloyd

I've heard that too. They're looking for a half back possession winner to replace Hodge.

[Meg]

One thing that is going to complicate draft night and value of picks this year is that there will be a large number of priority academy and F/S picks this year (according to the May 2018 article attached possibly more than 20).

Every time a priority pick is used, every other pick gets pushed down one place with consequent decrease in points value.

Some of you who are on top of likely priority draft selections might be able to speculate whether this is likely to cause the Swans difficulty.

https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/afl-draft-pool-drained-by-academies-20180502-p4zcxn.html

[stevoswan]

So I'll take that as a resounding YES to Goddard!

I have to be honest- I didn't even think of position in team, and agree that Jarrad is currently filling the most logical role for Goddard (and assuming he plays another year there's probably little need, unless they take it in turns- great for team continuity!).

BJ is certainly playing great tonight.....putting in a good audition for some club out there!

[Markwebbos]

Didn't the Bombers try and offload Francis last year? Wonder if he's still available - reckon not

[stevoswan]

Didn't the Bombers try and offload Francis last year? Wonder if he's still available - reckon not

You reckon right. He's played great in these last few rounds and took a contender for mark of the year tonight.....the perfect ride and hang and landing. A beauty! He's a lock to stay at Essendon.

[707]

Didn't the Bombers try and offload Francis last year? Wonder if he's still available - reckon not

He wanted to go back to Adelaide but not enough interest from Crows & Power at Essendon's asking price. Looks like the Bombers have won that stand off.

[707]

One thing that is going to complicate draft night and value of picks this year is that there will be a large number of priority academy and F/S picks this year (according to the May 2018 article attached possibly more than 20).

Every time a priority pick is used, every other pick gets pushed down one place with consequent decrease in points value.

Some of you who are on top of likely priority draft selections might be able to speculate whether this is likely to cause the Swans difficulty.

https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/...02-p4zcxn.html

Really difficult to predict, assuming we don't trade our first rounder. Gold Coast will get pick three which will hurt us because our first pick goes out one meaning less points to pay for Blakey so we'll burn more of our highest ranked second pick to land him. Also depends which club bids on Blakey, North are looking to trade out their first and use later round picks for likely top dozen pick Tarryn Thomas. We may do the same with ours.

The possible/likely awarding of Priority Picks to Carlton and Gold Coast after the first round also cost us as our second rounders are pushed out and therefore worth less in points.

Picks also come in on draft night/day if clubs use multiple picks like two seconders to pay for a first round selection tied to them.

So Gold Coast Compo and two after first round PP cost us plenty of points. The claiming of players tied to clubs seems to have less effect. But as I said it's difficult for anyone to predict.

[KSAS]

You reckon right. He's played great in these last few rounds and took a contender for mark of the year tonight.....the perfect ride and hang and landing. A beauty! He's a lock to stay at Essendon.

Some commentators on the radio this morning think it is mark Of The Year because of the hang time, others think his perfect landing spoilt the look & just give it to Heeney's at this stage.

[Nico]

I think Swans biggest need by far is midfielders, even more so if Hanners +/- Lllooyyydddd leave. And I reckon the Moore thing is rubbish. I believe we’ve got plans for a Hanners replacement.

What do people thing of Jed Anderson. He’s not signed a new contract at NM

Resounding NO.

[stevoswan]

Stuart Dew was just interviewed on ABC Grandstand and said they are not going for Lloyd and that he really can't see Lloyd leaving the Swans.....good news but of course, we'll see how that plays out.

[AB Swannie]

One way or another, we are going to have a very interesting trade and draft period. Here is some maths to help analyse the situation we are in:

* Based on current position we have 2346 draft points (picks 14, 32, 34, 68).
* If Blakey gets bid on at pick 7 which is currently his perceived ranking, that would cost us 1315 points with the 20% discount.
* If we do not trade our first pick and our picks remain at status quo, we will get Blakey, lose our first pick of 14 and our second pick of 32 would move to approximately 40. 34 would move up to 33 though.
* If we trade our first pick for a player or as part of the Hannebery deal to move ahead of pick 7, we would be left with only 1185 points to match a Blakey bid forcing us to go into 2019 with a deficit of 130 points.

So a few scenarios:

1. No trading at all
In: Blakey, pick 33, 40, 68
Out: No one

2. We trade Hanners and pick 14 for pick 4
In: Bailey Smith, Blakey, rookies
Out: Hannebery + reduced 2019 draft position

3. We trade for Darcy Moore
In: Moore, Blakey, rookies
Out: No one + reduced 2019 draft position

Of course, there are a myriad of other scenarios possible when you consider future picks and other players like Lloyd or Newman. I've just chosen a few of the more discussed options and tried to relate it to the points we have for this draft.

[Markwebbos]

Wow! That’s really helpful. If we can upgrade our hand slightly it would potentially make all the difference.

Ditto Collingwood having a bad finals series.

Can see the appeal of free agents

[Ralph Dawg]

Of our current batch of academy players, other than Blakey, who are most likely to be drafted / rookie listed? Sam wicks is someone who has impressed me over then last two years and I was hoping he may have been rookie listed this year. Is he a chance for 2019? Bailey Stewart is another who could turn into a very handy mid for us in time.

[liz]

I think you can throw a blanket over Wicks, Stern and Stewart in terms of consistency of contribution to the NEAFL side. They're all small to medium sized players who work very hard and know the team structures but I am not sure whether any of them have stand-out qualities that suggest they might be able to take the next step to AFL level (rather than contribute to the NEAFL side for another season or two). I'd have Stewart with his nose in front (just) in terms of his performances this year, while Stern has a bit of pace that the other two don't have (but is also the smallest of the three).

I had high hopes for Joey Reinhardt at the start of the season but though he's had a decent year, he hasn't shown the big improvement over the course of the year that I'd hoped we might see. He's still very skinny so could take another couple of years before he really hits his straps (as big brother has started to do, playing with Sydney Uni).

Angus Baker is an ex-Academy boy who has had a pretty good season for Canberra as a medium sized defender who might come under consideration (not just by the Swans).

[crackedactor]

One way or another, we are going to have a very interesting trade and draft period. Here is some maths to help analyse the situation we are in:

* Based on current position we have 2346 draft points (picks 14, 32, 34, 68).
* If Blakey gets bid on at pick 7 which is currently his perceived ranking, that would cost us 1315 points with the 20% discount.
* If we do not trade our first pick and our picks remain at status quo, we will get Blakey, lose our first pick of 14 and our second pick of 32 would move to approximately 40. 34 would move up to 33 though.
* If we trade our first pick for a player or as part of the Hannebery deal to move ahead of pick 7, we would be left with only 1185 points to match a Blakey bid forcing us to go into 2019 with a deficit of 130 points.

So a few scenarios:

1. No trading at all
In: Blakey, pick 33, 40, 68
Out: No one

2. We trade Hanners and pick 14 for pick 4
In: Bailey Smith, Blakey, rookies
Out: Hannebery + reduced 2019 draft position

3. We trade for Darcy Moore
In: Moore, Blakey, rookies
Out: No one + reduced 2019 draft position

Of course, there are a myriad of other scenarios possible when you consider future picks and other players like Lloyd or Newman. I've just chosen a few of the more discussed options and tried to relate it to the points we have for this draft.

Just on Darcy Moore. According to the big roar footy site, Darcy Moore has requested to be traded. Obviously Swans are the front runners. Just a point on the NEAFL. One of our players was Dunkley, is he any relation to Andrew Dunkley?


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