2018 trading, drafting and list management: players and personnel

[Ludwig]

There were some further details on the Hannebery rumour. Hanners has 3 years left on his $800k pa contract. STK offer would be for 5 years. The Swans would pay around 200k of the 3 years left on his contract.

The attractive part from out perspective is that the trade would probably involve a 1st round pick swap plus a later pick to the Swans and would allow the Pick 5 + Blakey scenario, which should go a long way to securing our midfield future.

I'm not sure about the exact details of FA compensation, and it is somewhat arbitrary, but if we are interested in Luke Dahlhaus and the Bulldogs interested in Hanners there may be a nice deal that could help both teams:

• If we offer Dahlhaus around $700 for the 1st 2 years of a multi year contract, he could fall into the top compensation category, which would return a pick 7 to the Bulldogs.
• Paying overs to Dahlhaus moves the compensation up significantly for the Bulldogs.
• They can give us that compensation pick in exchange for Hanners and a 2nd round pick.
• The Bulldogs almost get Hanners for free, from a player/pick compensation perspective.
• The Swans get their 2 1st round picks and Dahlhaus, effectively getting a top 7 pick for a swap of players of roughly equal value.

I've updated my previous post on Hanners to include some more scenarios.

I too think that Hanners will get back to being a top quality player and don't really want to lose him. But there are circumstances this year which would allow us to get an extra top 10 pick in a strong draft which cannot be overlooked. Hanners could well have another good 5 years ahead of him, but a pick 5, 6 or 7 could add a top quality midfielder for another 10 to 15 years.

Getting Hanners' salary off the books allows us to pick up a quality FA midfielder so there is little loss of experience. I think Gaff would be too expensive and perhaps won't overcome the king hit incident. If Dahlhaus is part of the formula, it's like a Moneyball type of win.

[Aprilbr]

I find it hard to believe that another team would give up an early draft pick for Hanners given the question mark over his fitness/form. It’s been 2 seasons since he played well.


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[Markwebbos]

I find it hard to believe that another team would give up an early draft pick for Hanners given the question mark over his fitness/form. It’s been 2 seasons since he played well.

I agree. Last week a future second round draft pick was being bandied about. I can’t see us getting a first rounder for him in his current form. It would be a huge risk for whoever took him.

The main benefit to us would be from a salary cap POV, which only makes sense if we are in a squeeze (surely not with Tippos retirement) or need the money to spend elsewhere - a free agent and / or Lloyd, Aliir etc.

I’m mystified why he’d want to leave unless the changes in our coaching lineup are no longer to his liking. Perhaps a 5 year deal would, when we’ve allegedly refused to extend his current one.

Only a club awash with cash and no one to spend it on: North, Saints, Carlton, Gold Coast would entertain taking him on.

[Doctor]

#weneedcapspace

[Markwebbos]

#weneedcapspace

Yes but why? What are we up to?

[Ludwig]

I find it hard to believe that another team would give up an early draft pick for Hanners given the question mark over his fitness/form. It’s been 2 seasons since he played well.

There are 2 points here:

1. If you don't think Hanners can recover from his injury and regain the form he once had, you don't do the trade. It seems that at least one, if not several clubs, think he can. So then we can move on to what kind of deal can be made.
2. Let's say the clubs agree that Hanners is worth around 1000 points, equivalent to a pick 19. Assume we have pick 12 and St Kilda have pick 5. If you swap picks, that counts for 600 points, so then you can swap later picks to make up the remaining 400 points. We can use the points to draft Blakey, who will likely cost around the total of our 2 second round draft picks.

St Kilda would still have a good 1st round pick and also a player who they hope can galvanize their midfield. They are desperate to turn things around and I don't think they want to go into a full blown rebuild. They have to be competitive next year, even if they don't make the finals.

I listened to the AFL 360 interview with Richardson, and I got the feeling it was being considered. There seems to be some truth to the story. They've been trying to get a big name player to the club, but they just can't do it. So it makes sense to at least look into a Hannebery trade. You have to give the fans something to hope for.

That's the St Kilda perspective. From our perspective, I would think KB would be thinking (as we have on here) about how we can get Blakey and still have a 1st round pick in a strong draft. We have some history here. We did it 2 years ago when we traded Mitchell.

[Aprilbr]

I think some clubs might think that they can get Hanners out of theSwans for not much in return. Personally I would keep him if the offers are poor unless we really think that he is finished.

Please don’t remind me again that we traded Mitchell! Every time he dominates another match it’s like a dagger in the heart. Brownlow night will not be pleasant. The team that traded a future Brownlow Medalist away with years ahead of him for No 14.


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[liz]

That's the St Kilda perspective. From our perspective, I would think KB would be thinking (as we have on here) about how we can get Blakey and still have a 1st round pick in a strong draft. We have some history here. We did it 2 years ago when we traded Mitchell.

I don't really get the obsession with getting another high pick this year. We are already close to guaranteed getting one of the top echelon of draftees even if our first pick is no 19 (unlikely, I know). As you have commented already, our pipeline of young talent doesn't look too bad at all. Our issue this year is that too many of our "best 22" are young, and without the incredibly consistent performances that we got from our top dozen or so players in 2016 (and especially our top 5 - all All Australians), the team is looking tired and can't sustain their efforts over four quarters or from week to week.

I don't especially care about rebuilding the team now. I want it to be ultra-competitive in 2019 and 2020 and 2021. Anyone we draft next year will be a few years off being a top contributor to the team. So will many of the current younger crop, but they'll be one, two or three years closer than anyone we draft at the end of this season. If we were completely bereft of young talent, things might look different. But we're not and I don't see the point of wanting to sacrifice a player who should be in his prime (and hopefully can get back to that level with an off-season of rest and a decent pre-season). If he has set his heart on leaving, that's another matter. Then it comes down to making the most of the situation. But I can't see why the club would actively want to get rid of him to draft another 18 year old.

The Mitchell situation was a bit different. He was out of contract, and by the time the trade period came along, he'd made up his mind he wanted to leave. A rebalance of our midfield away from five one paced plodders (however skilled) also made some sense. I don't think it makes as much sense now. We need strong bodies capable of winning contested ball. I think we have a decent amount of outside speed on the list. It just needs to mature.

[0918330512]

I think some clubs might think that they can get Hanners out of theSwans for not much in return. Personally I would keep him if the offers are poor unless we really think that he is finished.

Please don’t remind me again that we traded Mitchell! Every time he dominates another match it’s like a dagger in the heart. Brownlow night will not be pleasant. The team that traded a future Brownlow Medalist away with years ahead of him for No 14.


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Richmond traded Teasdale to us.
Geelong released Williams.
Melbourne similarly Healy.

[Aprilbr]

Yes we aren’t the first to do this and probably won’t be the last. But it still hurts!


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[0918330512]

Yes we aren’t the first to do this and probably won’t be the last. But it still hurts!


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LoL history is littered with them
Geelong Ablett
West Coast Judd
Sydney WillIams
Adelaide Dangerfield
Brisbane Buckley
Collingwood Moore
Footscray Round & Quinlan (in the same year!)
StKilda Stewart

[S.S. Bleeder]

A classic lose-lose trade....

How about we just offload Reid to a desperate club, like Carlton, get a decent pick and move on with the extra cap space.

I'm also in favour of moving Hannebery on. Gut running was his weapon... He's on big coin, but his best looks behind him...

We could do with a new gut running mid, preferably one who can hit a target.

+1. You have to make some tough decisions sometimes.

[S.S. Bleeder]

There were some further details on the Hannebery rumour. Hanners has 3 years left on his $800k pa contract. STK offer would be for 5 years. The Swans would pay around 200k of the 3 years left on his contract.

The attractive part from out perspective is that the trade would probably involve a 1st round pick swap plus a later pick to the Swans and would allow the Pick 5 + Blakey scenario, which should go a long way to securing our midfield future.

I'm not sure about the exact details of FA compensation, and it is somewhat arbitrary, but if we are interested in Luke Dahlhaus and the Bulldogs interested in Hanners there may be a nice deal that could help both teams:

• If we offer Dahlhaus around $700 for the 1st 2 years of a multi year contract, he could fall into the top compensation category, which would return a pick 7 to the Bulldogs.
• Paying overs to Dahlhaus moves the compensation up significantly for the Bulldogs.
• They can give us that compensation pick in exchange for Hanners and a 2nd round pick.
• The Bulldogs almost get Hanners for free, from a player/pick compensation perspective.
• The Swans get their 2 1st round picks and Dahlhaus, effectively getting a top 7 pick for a swap of players of roughly equal value.

Didn't Hawthorn and Melbourne get up to similar shenanigans in the Frawley FA move?

[waswan]

At his best hate to see him go but he isnt worth 800k now
He was a gut runner, for 800k you want pace, exquisite skills etc
There are 70+players id give 800k to before Hanners

I dont like the idea of paying any of his salary especially if a club wants to offer him 5 yrs

Id prefer Dalhaus over another top pick

[Markwebbos]

I don't really get the obsession with getting another high pick this year. We are already close to guaranteed getting one of the top echelon of draftees even if our first pick is no 19 (unlikely, I know). As you have commented already, our pipeline of young talent doesn't look too bad at all. Our issue this year is that too many of our "best 22" are young, and without the incredibly consistent performances that we got from our top dozen or so players in 2016 (and especially our top 5 - all All Australians), the team is looking tired and can't sustain their efforts over four quarters or from week to week.

I don't especially care about rebuilding the team now. I want it to be ultra-competitive in 2019 and 2020 and 2021. Anyone we draft next year will be a few years off being a top contributor to the team. So will many of the current younger crop, but they'll be one, two or three years closer than anyone we draft at the end of this season. If we were completely bereft of young talent, things might look different. But we're not and I don't see the point of wanting to sacrifice a player who should be in his prime (and hopefully can get back to that level with an off-season of rest and a decent pre-season). If he has set his heart on leaving, that's another matter. Then it comes down to making the most of the situation. But I can't see why the club would actively want to get rid of him to draft another 18 year old.

The Mitchell situation was a bit different. He was out of contract, and by the time the trade period came along, he'd made up his mind he wanted to leave. A rebalance of our midfield away from five one paced plodders (however skilled) also made some sense. I don't think it makes as much sense now. We need strong bodies capable of winning contested ball. I think we have a decent amount of outside speed on the list. It just needs to mature.

+1
It’s silly season already. If we are entertaining releasing Hanners I am praying it’s because we have a cunning plan to bring in mature players in the off-season, otherwise we’ll be looking at a couple of down / rebuilding years.

We need to stay up while we’ve got Buddy.