2018 trading, drafting and list management: players and personnel

[waswan]

I actually see a lot of merit in this argument.
Of course having a team of stars provides a different dynamic and will allow for success even without a solid game plan.

Another way to look at it would be there are no teams in the comp or during trade period looking at WB, Coll or Eagles with too much list envy or trying to copy what they have.
GWS is the only side loaded top to bottom

Last 3 years proves everyone (bar about 4-5 teams) is a chance

[sprite]

Which is what I was hoping for this season with our own injection of new assistants.....but it didn't seem to happen.....and now our future coach in waiting has gone to North. Yes, open your mind to other ideas Horse! Why do you have assistants if you're not going to listen to them?

The other one went to GCS.

Hope Horse, realises that Kirk is a dud, did nothing at Freo comes back and our mids start playing rubbish football. He was, as Jack Dyer would say a good average footballer but I don't think he is a line coach. Player welfare maybe - kumbaya

[liz]

Isn't that the rub for the Swans: we have no decent trade currency? If we use our picks 1 and 3 to pay for Blakey, our only currency is our 2nd pick (around 33) and whatever bits and pieces we get for Hannebery and Rohan - less what we use on Duryea or van den Berg. Most of the unrestricted free agents are spoken for, and we simply don't have any draft points to play with to trade for a top player, whatever the $ involved.

I wonder if there are any Academy smokies coming through next year?

We do have currency though. We have pick 13. The Cats don't want to lose Kelly but say if they do trade him, they'll be looking for a top 10 pick. They know they probably won't get that but it's a public starting point. Pick 13 is close (and probably reasonable value for Kelly, given we got pick 14 in a less-hyped draft for an (albeit uncontracted) Mitchell who, even in his time with us, had more runs on the board than Kelly currently has.

Whether we can afford to just given away pick 13 depends on where they think a bid will come for Blakey. If it is from pick 9 onwards, we will actually leave a bit of the value of the discount on the table if we hold onto pick 13. If it comes at, say, pick 8 it will cost 1,241 points. If it comes at pick 13 it will cost that pick if we still hold it (nominally worth 1,212 points gross of the discount). If we don't have that pick anymore, we'd have to find 970 points to match a bid at 13.

We currently hold our and Collingwood's second round picks. It's hard to know exactly where they'll land up but factoring in compensation picks in the late teens and mid 20s for Lycett and Dalhaus (as well as the Lynch pick), I think they'll land up around 33 and 38, worth 563 + 465 points = 1,028 points. That would cover a bid for Blakey at 12 or 13 with loose change left over, and would leave a deficit if a bid comes earlier. A bid at 8 would leave a deficit of 213 points, effectively wiping our 4th round pick too. But we might get another pick somewhere as part of one of the other trades in progress.

All this is assuming Sheed were available and wanted to come to the Swans, but it comes down to a choice of Sheed, still getting Blakey but losing the chance to draft two teenagers in the second half of the second round, or getting Blakey and those two teenagers. I wouldn't have thought that's a hard choice.

We'd still have to draft at least one player with a very late pick in the draft to fill the minimum quota of 3 draftees - the upgrade of Ronke can count as one of this quota.

All this ignores the need for currency for any other trades. Duryea wouldn't cost anything as he's a free agent and maybe Clarke for Newman as a straight swap might happen. It's just Vandenburg who would need something, though I can't imagine very much. Certainly a lot less than we should be getting for Hannebery. And there are always future picks to dip into if necessary.

[ISIBIDBI]

+1 I did mention getting Dom Tyson on 7th October:

Still think we need to urgently recruit an A grade midfielder to replace Hannebery (assuming he'll get to Saints). Despite his past 2 seasons performances hampered by interrupted pre-seasons, I still class Hanners as an A grader overall. I rate Dom Tyson who I think can easily become an A grader who is linked to Essendon.

Yep my apologies I didn't notice that, probably should have said barely any mention of Tyson especially over the last few days! He definitely fills a need of ours.

[stevoswan]

Never. You are projecting your own misplaced loyalties again.

Give me a M, give me a C, give me a G.....

.....and I'll give you a misguided soul....aimlessly lost somewhere betweem Melbourne and West Sydney.

[stevoswan]

Shiel off to Essendon according to latest reports.....wow. Good get for them.

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2018-10-09/giant-decision-shiel-says-its-the-bombers

[Auntie.Gerald]

Blakey plus mature ready to rock trades would be my objective plus our rookies this week

In:
1. Tom Langdon
2. Blakey
3. Vandenberg
4. R.clarke
5. D.clarke
6. Duryea
7. St Kilda player for hannes? Or second rd 2019
8. Rookie
9. Rookie

Out:
1. Hannes
2. Rohan
3. Newman
4. Towers
5. Tippett
6. Foote
7. Brown
8. Johnson
9. Styles


The trading strategy

These 3 guys seem likely

vandenberg - mid 30s to late pick
Duryea - out of contract
R.clarke - swap for Newman

Re the big “if” maybe?

Tom Langdon 500-600k pa not sure for me even if possible but supposedly we have made a formal offer. If we out bid the pies they will have to take whatever the AFL determined or they can take our pick 13 which I think is too high

I wonder then if we could split our draft picks ie two mid 20s for a pick 13 to a club who needs it badly due to a trade they need to happen???

Carlton have picks 24 and 25 from memory ?? So would they be open to swapping pick 13?
These two picks would give us 400plus more points then pick 13 and would mean Blakey could go as high as pick 5 with no deficit plus Carlton may seriously prefer pick 13

So then we would have picks 24/25/33/38/67 and probably a St Kilda ? player plus 2nd pick next year for hannes ?

Pick 24 to pies for Langdon trade

Picks 25 and 33 for Blakey in the draft

Pick 38 - Give to melb for vandenberg trade

Pick 67 - give to bombers for Dylan clarke trade

I’m not totally up to date with points for picks so let me know if I’m off the mark !!


Dylan clarke who is Ryan’s brother would also be an interesting opportunity also now that Dylan shiels has gone to the bombers. Minimal $ but could lock up for a few years and develop

http://m.essendonfc.com.au/player-profile/dylan-clarke

[Muttley]

Dom Tyson is very ordinary.

[Bloods05]

You support the MCG over your own team. may God have mercy on your soul.

You support the Grand Old Girl over your own team's home ground.

- - - Updated - - -

I actually see a lot of merit in this argument.
Of course having a team of stars provides a different dynamic and will allow for success even without a solid game plan.

Guru Bob has always said that a champion team will always beat a team of champions - unless the team of champions is really, really good.

[AB Swannie]

Dylan clarke who is Ryan’s brother would also be an interesting opportunity also now that Dylan shiels has gone to the bombers. Minimal $ but could lock up for a few years and develop

I agree that Dylan Clarke could be an interesting trade target now that Shiel has nominated the bombers. He must be significantly down the depth chart and likely to play 2s at Essendon. If we get his older brother, it might be enticing for Dylan to also join the Swans for more opportunities.

[barry]

You support the Grand Old Girl over your own team's home ground.

You are clutching at straws. The grand old lady of australian sport was one of sydney's home grounds. I have never advocated "selling a home game" or playing a final at the home of another club. That would be maximum disloyalty to the club, and I pity those who advocate it.

[Auntie.Gerald]

Dylan Clarke - essendonfc.com.au

[chammond]

We do have currency though. We have pick 13.

Thanks, Liz. You've brightened my day (it's pouring with rain here in Gippsland).

I guess I was being too pessimistic, and I was forgetting the 20% discount. I can easily see the Bulldogs (or any of the others) throwing in a bogus bid for Blakey - what have they got to lose? That means we'd need at least 1315 points to cover them. But as you pointed out, we should get enough for Hannabery to allow us to keep our first pick.

Can we promote more than one rookie to make up our draft obligations?

[Foreign Legion]

Does anyone think the Eagles might go for Darcy Cameron as a trade? He is ready to go - they like to play 2 rucks when they can. Now that they have lost Lycett and with Natanui injured their options are low.

[dimelb]

We didn't in 2018 but with some natural maturation and development from talented youngsters and a few returning injurees, we might have in 2019.

I also maintain that many on here confuse what they witnessed the Swans produce in 2018 with what they were trying to produce, which in part goes to your point about not having the list (at least in 2018) to execute the plan, but also clouds perceptions on how the Swans were/will be trying to play.

If the maturation and development include enabling 5 people to master accurate field kicking, we could roll over any other team in the comp. And I don't care much which 5, provided it includes Aliir and Hanners has moved on.