2018 trading, drafting and list management: players and personnel

[Mr Magoo]

12 months ago - no one was spruiking Collingwoods depth and talent and they didnt really do much during the trade period from what I recall.

A year prior to that , Richmond wasnt really the name on anyones lips for premiership chances.

Both teams essentially just developed their games and the list improved overall within.

No big trades and teams that at the time were not viewed that highly and with coaches who were precariously placed in their roles.

I still remember AFL 360 almost laughing at Hardwicke expressing pure faith in his list as the guys gave it to him over his poor recruitment. 12 months later it all cam together and suddenly they are the team that everyone wants to mimic.

I have faith in the talent at hand and if they develop further it doesnt need some big shot from another team to lift it to the next level. In fact the addition of a couple of depth players into our bottom 6 is probably more important.

[Flying South]

I don't think there's any singular way to building a winning list. Just because we or another club in the past built a list by recruiting big name players during trade period and was successful, doesn't mean that's the only road to success.

Agreed. After all lists are just a piece of paper. They don't win premierships. Teams made up of committed individuals , great leaders and powerful cultures achieve the ultimate success. Bulldogs, Richmond and West Coast are testament to that.

[longmile]

Agreed. After all lists are just a piece of paper. They don't win premierships. Teams made up of committed individuals , great leaders and powerful cultures achieve the ultimate success. Richmond and West Coast are testament to that.

Fixed

[Blue Sun]

Status quo for Swans, but 2019 raid looms

Status quo for Swans, but 2019 raid looms - AFL.com.au

Thats a fantastic article.

The big question is whether we can stay healthy and injury-free. Important for any club of course, but more important for the current Swans list - we lack depth as young players are still maturing. He also makes a valid point about the future of our young bloods, Longmire seems to be forming the core of a Swans team built for the next decade. Kind of reminds me of the Hawthorn core from 2008-2015 - heres hoping we're just as successful!

[Ruck'n'Roll]

I don't think there's any singular way to building a winning list. Just because we or another club in the past built a list by recruiting big name players during trade period and was successful, doesn't mean that's the only road to success.

Indeed, our recent history suggests it's not a great route for us.

Agreed. After all lists are just a piece of paper. They don't win premierships. Teams made up of committed individuals , great leaders and powerful cultures achieve the ultimate success. Bulldogs, Richmond and West Coast are testament to that.

I hope that is still true of the Swans, it certainly was in the past) - but I think we can only assume/hope it still applies today (actual evidence will only emerge with the passage of time).

Status quo for Swans, but 2019 raid looms
Status quo for Swans, but 2019 raid looms - AFL.com.au

A good positive piece, although the publication date makes it look a little post-facto.



On a less sombre note, regarding the midfield, I sometimes think there's a self fulfilling meme that anyone good should end up in the midfield. There's been lots of talk about freeing up Jones and Mills for the midfield.

I love the way Jones plays the wing, and hope he is released from the backline permanently. He reminds me so much of Stewie Maxfield. The both play/ed with such fury and vigour, even the same excessive-enthusiasm-induced-clangers. If only he wasn't bald, tattooed and lacking an exaggerated ball drop . . . it'd be uncanny.

On the other hand, from his very first season, I have always thought Mills bore an remarkable resemblance to Johnny Rantall in the way he plays, do any other old timers see it?
If the midfield thing doesn't work out, perhaps the coaches should consider him as backline general/quarterback and think of moving Lloyed upfield.

[Blood Fever]

Indeed, our recent history suggests it's not a great route for us.


I hope that is still true of the Swans, it certainly was in the past) - but I think we can only assume/hope it still applies today (actual evidence will only emerge with the passage of time).


A good positive piece, although the publication date makes it look a little post-facto.



On a less sombre note, regarding the midfield, I sometimes think there's a self fulfilling meme that anyone good should end up in the midfield. There's been lots of talk about freeing up Jones and Mills for the midfield.

I love the way Jones plays the wing, and hope he is released from the backline permanently. He reminds me so much of Stewie Maxfield. The both play/ed with such fury and vigour, even the same excessive-enthusiasm-induced-clangers. If only he wasn't bald, tattooed and lacking an exaggerated ball drop . . . it'd be uncanny.

On the other hand, from his very first season, I have always thought Mills bore an remarkable resemblance to Johnny Rantall in the way he plays, do any other old timers see it?
If the midfield thing doesn't work out, perhaps the coaches should consider him as backline general/quarterback and think of moving Lloyed upfield.

Do see the resemblance RR and what a champ he was. IIRC, he played midfield at North times to great effect before he came back to us and again played HBF.

[Auntie.Gerald]

Trade Wrap - Kinnear Beatson - sydneyswans.com.au

I think most of us saw Kinnears chat last week

He was strong that given we have a fair mix of this year & next year picks, we may aim to move up in our picks this season, via our mix 2018 and our mix 2019:

Next year -
1st round x 1
2nd round x 2
3rd round x 1
4th round x 2

Plus our spread this season of -
26
33
38
39
40
88

So who can we help and who can help us ?

Who may not need their picks due to minimal or nil use for their picks in 2018 ?

If we need 26 & 33 for Blakey how do we move 38,39,40 up to say 34 and 35 if we only need 2 players plus Nick Blakey in the draft?

Could we move up to picks 30 & 35 from brisvegas plus a player if we only need 3 players from the draft plus use 88 on an upgrade ?

Ie give them 38,39,40 plus a player ?

Current list:

Adelaide
Draft picks: 8, 13, 16, 21, 73, 83

Brisbane
Draft picks: 18, 30, 35, 56, 78

Carlton
Draft picks: 1, 69, 71, 77

Collingwood
Draft picks: 51, 57, 93

Essendon
Draft picks: 34, 66, 84

Fremantle
Draft picks: 14, 31, 43, 65, 81

Geelong
Draft picks: 12, 50, 59, 60, 70, 87

Gold Coast
Draft picks: 2, 3, 6, 24, 29, 80

GWS Giants
Draft picks: 9, 11, 19, 25, 52, 89

Hawthorn
Draft picks: 53, 90

Melbourne
Draft picks: 23, 28, 54, 62, 91

North Melbourne
Draft picks: 42, 47, 48, 49, 55, 58, 86

Port Adelaide
Draft picks: 5, 10, 15, 85

Richmond
Draft picks: 17, 37, 64, 68, 74, 92

St Kilda
Draft picks: 4, 36, 46, 67, 79

Sydney Swans
Draft picks: 26, 33, 38, 39, 40, 88

West Coast
Draft picks: 20, 22, 61, 72, 76, 94

Western Bulldogs
Draft picks: 7, 27, 32, 45, 63, 82

[stevoswan]

My issue is that the other teams competing for the 8 have improved vs our list significantly ie north, bombers, hawks etc

We were well off the pace of Richmond

GWS are in my opinion about to peak with such amazing talent at the right age. Their injury toll all season was worse then ours. We looked like a reserve grade team in the finals vs gws. We were completely dismantled

The pies depth and talent looks like it will be hitting its straps come 2019.......very very exciting list of players and had massive injury toll all season

So yes I will support our team all the way but I can’t see through rose coloured glasses. Our recruitment strategy concerns me a lot. Our outside run vs gws looked absolutely terrible in the finals. So does our backline outside run come down to Stoddart and or Ling ?

We know we need Jones in the midfield

We have fallen behind in my opinion and it could be a very very tough season

I can’t see our plan B for 2019

Most of the judgements on where we sit compared to the rest of the other 'contenders for the final 8' are based on how we performed throughout the 2018 season and the single final we played. Alas (or fortunately), this does not reflect the state of our list, which was fairly decimated through injuries to some key players.....our best Ruckman, our best 'swingman', two of our best defenders and more.

I believe our list, when fully fit, compares well to others and stands us in good stead. I think the fact that we made the finals with such a young group, who will continue to develop, was impressive and due to the same circumstance, we lacked consistency throughout the season and in the end, simply ran out of puff.

With Reid, Naismith, Mills and Melican added, the rest of the list fully fit, the young guns with a further season/pre-season under their belts and improved depth with Clarke and Thurlow added to those who make way for the returning injured guns, 2019 should see significant improvement. Hopefully game plan tweaks will help facilitate this.

Richmond? We thought they were hard to beat this year.....with Lynch, potentially frightening! But we weren't that far off them this season.

WC? Will take a lot of confidence into next year and have slightly strengthened list wise.

Collingwood? Stronger also.....at our best, we are better.

Hawthorn? Strengthened again and will be dangerous....I still think us at our strongest are better.

GWS? They still have an impressive list but it is now weaker than last season.... I think their premiership window is narrower now.

Melbourne? Stronger list plus confidence from this season.....but we still beat them late this season, when we were obviously tiring.

North? Definitely stronger and should make finals comfortably.....a potential thorn in our side.

Essendon and Port have also improved their lists and Adelaide can't/won't repeat this seasons disappointment, so there's indeed plenty of hurdles for us next season.

We have some work to do no doubt but our improvement lies in the players returning, Buddy being FULLY fit, the young guns improving and the recruitment of Blakey. If we get some luck on the injury front and the coaching group make the necessary tweaks, we can be top four and a definite chance for the flag IMO.

[liz]

^ We can only trade draft picks from now on. So offering Brisbane (or any other club) those picks "plus a player" is not an option.

[rb4x]

I think we will sit on our picks until draft day unless some other club does something daft. Picks 26 and 33 will cover us for Blakey if he goes at pick 7 plus. If he goes at pick 6 which I do not expect then our pick 38 will be needed which will drop to pick 45 but then 39, 40 and 45 would all move up two positions as we expended three higher picks so no real damage. Net result would be 40 would become 43, not a major issue. If Blakey goes as low as pick 12 which again I do not expect then our pick 36 would become pick 50 but then 38, 39, 40 and 50 would all move up one position due to two picks having been expended on Blakey. A great result as this pick could then be on traded to a club like Collingwood that is short of picks, very short if Quaynor and Kelly go higher than Twomey predicts for probably their 2019 third round pick. This would be our best result as if Blakey went as low as 13 then the Swans should have retained that pick and taken a pick before Blakey. If Blakey goes anywhere between 8 and 11 then the Swans will have a pick they can on trade for a clubs 2019 third or fourth round pick.

All this is predicated on the Swans following through on what Beatson said in that they will take Blakey plus three in the 2018 draft. Having 38, 39 and 40 which will become 37, 38 and 39 is nice as the club does not need to antagonise over what order they are taken which would be the situation if another club had an intervening pick. Blakey and the first three picks in in round three is quite a nice position.

[S.S. Bleeder]

This.

I think any club needs to be flexible in how it approaches recruitment, and look at all ways to improve the list. A club can draw up all the strategies and tactics it likes, but it has to respond to whatever opportunities present themselves and make the most of those. I doubt recruiting a Franklin was ever part of the Swans' list building strategy until his manager came knocking on the door one day.

I just had this funny vision appear in my mind. Imagine being a fly on the wall when Ireland took that phone call from Pickering telling him that Buddy wanted to come to us.

[Steve]

12 months ago - no one was spruiking Collingwoods depth and talent and they didnt really do much during the trade period from what I recall.

A year prior to that , Richmond wasnt really the name on anyones lips for premiership chances.

Both teams essentially just developed their games and the list improved overall within.

No big trades and teams that at the time were not viewed that highly and with coaches who were precariously placed in their roles.

That last part is a significant difference to us though - they were forced, to some extent, into change re: gameplan and other aspects. Which actually addressed their issues and they improved. For better or worse, I don't think we'll see any significant changes from Longmire.

Richmond and Collingwood also benefited from easier fixtures due to missing the finals the previous year - again another benefit we won't have in comparison.

However it's a fair comment that just because the 'experts' aren't raving about us, it doesn't mean we can't improve and be a contender if a lot of things go well.

Thats a fantastic article.

The big question is whether we can stay healthy and injury-free. Important for any club of course, but more important for the current Swans list - we lack depth as young players are still maturing.

Yep - we are stuffed if we have any reasonable number of injuries, and it could get ugly if there are a lot of injuries and our biggest names are among them. But with a decent run and more development from the younger players, it can be OK.

[S.S. Bleeder]

Fixed

Haha, you beat me to it. Bulldogs are the exception. They arsed it thanks to incompetent or corrupt umpiring.

[S.S. Bleeder]

Thats a fantastic article.

The big question is whether we can stay healthy and injury-free. Important for any club of course, but more important for the current Swans list - we lack depth as young players are still maturing. He also makes a valid point about the future of our young bloods, Longmire seems to be forming the core of a Swans team built for the next decade. Kind of reminds me of the Hawthorn core from 2008-2015 - heres hoping we're just as successful!

Except that Hawthorn had a team loaded with top 5 draft picks from a number of years of being terrible as well as tanking.

[Ludwig]

All this is predicated on the Swans following through on what Beatson said in that they will take Blakey plus three in the 2018 draft. Having 38, 39 and 40 which will become 37, 38 and 39 is nice as the club does not need to antagonise over what order they are taken which would be the situation if another club had an intervening pick. Blakey and the first three picks in in round three is quite a nice position.

A lot can happen with open slather on trading picks, but if things stand as it is now, and Blakey goes at pick 7 or later, then our 3 late picks will actually drop to at least 39-40-41, because Quaynor and Thomas will get matched by Collingwood and North, respectively, with picks after our pick 40, so everyone will drop down 2 slots. But we could move back up to our starting postion if Rhylee West goes to the Buildogs at higher than pick 18, which will be a close one.

Even if Blakey gets bid at pick 6 we should only drop back 3 spots at most with our current pick 40 as several Collingwood and North picks will have dropped out due to academy bid matching.

I initially feared that there might be some malicious bidding when the system was first introduced, because the introduction of the system came in a the toxic environment of punishing the Swans for getting Mils after getting Heeney the year before. But now I see that the list managers form a rather collegial group and are not out to hurt any of their mates, which could lead to retribution down the line. This is why I doubt Blakey will be bid before Pick 7, which is around the consensus of where he should go. If anything, he might drop a few spots. We have a good relationship with both Saint Kilda and GCS who haves picks 4 and 6, and Port is known to want to get a South Australian, which will probably be either Rankine or Rozee, so bidding on Blakey at pick 5 would look malicious.

Now that the Mills' draft is history, I hear there is pressure to change the value points curve to a flatten out the top, which would make it closer the HPN system. Now that Victorian clubs, like Collingwood and North also have academies, they may also get punished by a system designed just to punish the Swans, and we can't have that, can we now?

I probaby made some computation errors. There was too much calculating to work out everything in your head withoug making some mistakes, especially if you're stoned (just saying hypothetically, of course).