2019 trading, drafting and list management: players and personnel

[bloodspirit]

Objectively, at first blush, I think pick 9/10 is quite fair for Papley. However the point is, we can and should demand more. And fairness has nothing to do with it - we trade based on practical realities and self-interest (for the most part).

Papley is worth more to us because we don't have to pay him as much has someone else will have to pay him to get him (because we signed him to a long term deal before he such good form on the board). I suspect we might be talking about as much as a $1m difference for him over the 4 years (no wonder he's keen). However $1m salary cap space (over 4 years) is worth a fair bit of draft currency - it's the same reason Hanners was traded cheap in terms of draft picks - because the Saints would pick up his wages that had become overinflated due to his injuries and this had the effect of discounting his draft value. This is why I say it is hard to see how he can be worth enough to another club to make it worth our while trading him. However, it's not impossible, if, for instance, Carlton believe that Papley plays exactly the right role they are missing and need, he has the right qualities (in terms of leadership etc.) and is the right age and their premiership/finals window is opening and that it is worth it to them to pay overs for him (in an 'objective' sense).

I will be surprised and potentially disappointed if the club are not thinking about getting at least one midfielder in the door via trade.

[SeanM]

My main concern with Daniher is that he will probably be on a large long term salary. Which might affect our ability to retain our best young players over the next few seasons if they start getting higher offers from other clubs .

Yes we had a few players retire this year. But that may already be factored in to the salary cap planning.

[Ludwig]

Tom Harley, KB and Longmire are all quite risk averse individuals. I can't see them rolling the dice on a risky acquisition that could cost the club dearly, even if the upside on Daniher is high if all goes well. They've stuck by the rebuild through the draft plan for six years and are finally at the point where we won't have any projected retiring players after next season, plus 2 hot academy prospects in the 2020 draft. We can pick up a good player with our pick 5: I would be happy with Serong, Flanders or Hayden Young, and one has to be available when our time comes. We can also get another solid player with our second round pick.

Barry is right in pointing out that this is a big year for Tom Harley. He needs to have solid post season. Not a speculative one or anything spectacular. We have a lot pieces in place. Let's not blow it.

[bloodspirit]

I still keeping hoping we'll get one of the Demons mids. Any of Brayshaw, Petracca or Harmes would be excellent. They've got Oliver, Viney, Jones on top of them plus players like Neal-Bullen and Stretch so they have plenty of depth in that area but lack in other areas and it makes sense for them to trade one of those players out who have good currency.

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My main concern with Daniher is that he will probably be on a large long term salary. Which might affect our ability to retain our best young players over the next few seasons if they start getting higher offers from other clubs .

Yes we had a few players retire this year. But that may already be factored in to the salary cap planning.

We don't have to pay Daniher what he's getting now. And, surely, any contract we offer will have to include significant components based on games played.

[Legs Akimbo]

If the club accepts a second round pick for Jones I'll be pretty disappointed in them.

[Blood Fever]

Doc Larkins on Trade Radio pretty much said Joe Daniher is a huge risk to play again at his former level, if at all, and wouldn't recommend any club trading for him. If his OP is still a problem after surgery, he's unlikely to gain full fitness. If he were okay, then Essendon would have a big contract extension in front him, but we don't see that, do we? I think they would love to offload him to any sucker that comes along, before everyone discovers next year that he can't play.

HPN says Daniher is worth a pick 27, or about our 2nd round pick. But after hearing Larkins, I wouldn't even give that for him. Let him play next year and prove what he can do. We are not in a position to give away top 10 picks for such a risky player acquisition. Harley Bennell sounds a better option and comes at a better price.

That should cancel the Papley hypothetical trade.

I wouldn't be giving away Cameron or Jones so fast either, but open to see the trade offer. Let's promise Cameron a half dozen games at the start of next season, fitness permitting. It's a better offer than competing with Maxon Cox for #2 ruckman.

Doc Larkins has a history of getting a lot of things wrong. Swans will have much better expert advice than the Doc.

[Ludwig]

Doc Larkins has a history of getting a lot of things wrong. Swans will have much better expert advice than the Doc.

I've been pretty critical of Doc Larkins as well, but the fact that Joe's OP has now been around for 2 years and there's no way of telling if the surgery will be a success until next season. The question is whether we should be the ones to take that risk, or should it be Essendon? The surgery may reduce the groin soreness somewhat, but not completely, restricting his mobility, which is his greatest asset.

If Daniher wants to get away from the spotlight in Melbourne, we can assure him that Sydney will still be on the map in October 2020.

An afterthought: We all know that Longmire's favourite word is consistency. How does that accord with a player like Daniher in his current uncertain state.

[Blood Fever]

I've been pretty critical of Doc Larkins as well, but the fact that Joe's OP has now been around for 2 years and there's no way of telling if the surgery will be a success until next season. The question is whether we should be the ones to take that risk, or should it be Essendon? The surgery may reduce the groin soreness somewhat, but not completely, restricting his mobility, which is his greatest asset.

If Daniher wants to get away from the spotlight in Melbourne, we can assure him that Sydney will still be on the map in October 2020.

Fair call but if he gets back to his best, he is a freak and we may not get another chance. I'm sure the decision can be worked through with expert medical input without the Doc. We'll soon know.

[Ruck'n'Roll]

Like Bell Shakespeare this thread seems to be doing "Much ado about nothing" - could someone pm me if something actually happens?

[stevoswan]

Doc Larkins has a history of getting a lot of things wrong. Swans will have much better expert advice than the Doc.

But we should still let him prove himself with one more year at Essendon (and keep Papley next year). If JD gets through and plays good footy, we can go for him as a cheaper RFA but if he fails, we can all smile smugly with relief.

If we trade for him this year.....MASSIVE risk.....and a potential MASSIVE waste of money and draft pick/picks.

I imagine the club has some common sense.....?

[Blood Fever]

But we should still let him prove himself with one more year at Essendon (and keep Papley next year). If JD gets through and plays good footy, we can go for him as a cheaper RFA but if he fails, we can all smile smugly with relief.

If we trade for him this year.....MASSIVE risk.....and a potential MASSIVE waste of money and draft pick/picks.

I imagine the club has some common sense.....?

Hard not to have all these thoughts on the issue but we don't really know what the club is thinking. And neither do most, if not all, the footy journos who are justifying their existence.

[stevoswan]

Swans apparently showing interest in Tom Green (GWS academy player), Caleb Serong and Hayden Young with their pick 5 in the draft.....Young looks like another Jordan Dawson or even Nick Malcheski, with a beautiful raking left foot. Watch the single highlight of this left foot from the U18 Championships at 2:52 in the video at the link below.....sublime. Would be a good get.

Swans eye rival's star, top-five pick weighs up future - AFL.com.au

[0918330512]

Crows Riley Knight to meet with the Swans?

[Foreign Legion]

Carlton supporter on Trade Radio says Carlton should offer pic 15 at best for Papley and say to the Swans that's our offer.

Methinks he has forgotten that Papley is contracted.

[707]

It's on!

Check out the 5 minute clip on the AFL website that interviews Simon Dalrymple, we are right into Tom Green, club is really impressed with him, been to visit him at home, we are bidding on him at pick 5 :-)

GWS need 1502 points (discounted) to match, burns their pick 12 (1268 points) and takes 234 off their pick 18 pushing it back to pick pick 26, just after our second. Fly in the oinment is a Freo NGA (I hate NGA's) which might push our 25 to 26 then GWS will still get pick 25 and pick in front of us :-(

So we'll have the third "live" pick as the GC twins and Green will go before our pick. Dees, Crows to select live before us, both looking for outside speed.