2019 trading, drafting and list management: players and personnel

[Aprilbr]

I agree with Ludwig that 9 and 25 is a very fair offer. If anything, bordering on too generous. Yet I doubt Essendon will take that, even at the 11th hour so I think the trade will collapse unless the Swans cave in.

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[Steve]

I agree that the compensation pick is a key element in how these RFA deals go down. But there are many other factors as well.

Firstly, I think the Dangerfield deal was an accommodation by Geelong to come to something fairer for Adelaide in the transaction. In the end, they only gave up picks 9 and 28. I think we'd do picks 9 and 25 for Daniher. Geelong are both fair and astute traders and enjoy having that reputation.

That's how I would see it going down next year with Daniher, if it gets to that stage. If their first pick was in the 12-15 range, for example (which could become 20-something after Academy and NGA picks), Essendon would most likely do what Adelaide did and say that range compensation pick isn't enough and they will push for a trade by matching our FA offer.

Then we would have to offer something better than that, but not as much as Daniher would be worth on the open market - as Geelong did with Adelaide - and that is enough of a compromise.

Of all the restricted FA moves, I think the main reason for the lack of matching bids is that they were good but not star players, so the compensation offered by the AFL was close enough. The better players on that list were 1st round or end of 1st round compensation, which in some cases might have been slight unders, but not enough to think you'd get much more via a trade.

Lynch to Richmond (IMO would have been matched if their compo wasn't as high as pick 3)
Lycett to Port Adelaide
Trengove to W.Bulldogs
Rockliff to Port Adelaide
Motlop to Port Adelaide
N.Brown to St Kilda
S.Selwood to Geelong
Leuenberger to Essendon
Higgins to Nth Melb
Betts to Adelaide
Franklin to Hawthorn (weren't prepared to match the contract - but would have otherwise matched due to the poor compensation)
Thomas to Carlton
Pearce to Fremantle
Goddard to Essendon
Chaplin to Richmond
Moloney to Brisbane

The real issue is where it is a star player, and their club is well up the ladder - so getting the '1st round' compensation is only one pick, possibly as bad as 15-20. So unless they just can't or don't think it's safe to match the bid financially, those circumstances are where clubs would most likely match. I definitely see Essendon doing that next year if it gets that far.

[Ludwig]

Of all the restricted FA moves, I think the main reason for the lack of matching bids is that they were good but not star players, so the compensation offered by the AFL was close enough. The better players on that list were 1st round or end of 1st round compensation, which in some cases might have been slight unders, but not enough to think you'd get much more via a trade.

Lynch to Richmond (IMO would have been matched if their compo wasn't as high as pick 3)

This is interesting in that the value points of picks 9 + 25 is equivalent to pick 3. If Lynch is worth pick 3 then surely Daniher is worth no more.

As you showed, Daniher would be the 3rd biggest value trade if he went to free agency, so not many data points. The Lynch deal seems the most relevant for comparison, as well as the Dangerfield deal, and confirms that handing over picks 9 and 25 would be a more than fair compensation for Daniher.

I would imagine all the list managers would be reviewing these past deals. Even Dodo knows that 9 + 25 would be a good offer.

As Barry and Liz commented, they could use pick 25 to land either Patton or Bruce and still have pick 9 to use in the draft. We would probably get pick 25 back again for Jones, so we would effectiively be swapping Papley and Jones for Daniher, all three players wanting to change cities.

[707]

Very sensible Ludwig, sense unfortunately in very short supply at Essendon.

Walk away Swans

[barry]

The Patton deal (to hawthorn) seems a steel for a third round pick, and it was odd that GWS didn't play him later in the year.
Could be two things:
1) he really is shot, and hawthorn are returning a favour for the scully trade to give the. Cap relief.
Or
2) hawthorn are not only paying the salary of Patton, but are paying someone else's salary at GWS as they battle the cap. Essentially GWS are trading out players for cap relief. The pick is just a decoy.

I reacon number 2. Is there a law against it?

[Auntie.Gerald]

I wonder if Essendon will go for Josh Bruce now that the doggies maybe seriously struggling to make it work with the Saints ?

[MattW]

I agree with Ludwig that 9 and 25 is a very fair offer. If anything, bordering on too generous. Yet I doubt Essendon will take that, even at the 11th hour so I think the trade will collapse unless the Swans cave in.

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This sums it up well.

[giant]

For what it’s worth:

Last night in the foyer of Hoyts cinema at the Entertainment Quarter at Moore Park while waiting for The Joker, Buddy and Jesinta walked in and sat next to us. (For a moment the four of us sat there, peacefully a long way outside the Melbourne fishbowl). Jesinta was radiantly beautiful, Buddy was chilled, I was visibly jumping out of my skin thinking holy @@@@@@ here’s my chance to get the inside scoop on Daniher and Papley. My GF who doesn’t know the difference between Buddy Franklyn and Buddy Guy was like ‘WTF is wrong with you? Why are you suddenly acting like a complete d**ckhead?’ Having spent the last few weeks pouring over the pages of RWO trying to get my head around what is happening with Daniher and Papley and Jones and Harley and KB and the Swans management and Dodoro et al and coming away from each session feeling in turns frustrated, angry, deeply saddened, elated, perplexed to the point of insanity, mystified and/or stupefied or all of the above simultaneously I decided to do a very rash thing (and yes I felt bad because I knew by taking this action I would create a Sydney fishbowl – albeit a very small one containing only four fish, well three really as my GF is devoid of any AFL content or intent), and ask Buddy.
‘Hi Buddy’ I said as he walked by with something to eat.
‘Uh, hi’ said Buddy visibly shocked and surprised that someone in Sydney recognised him.
‘I’m Ajax’ I said. ‘So,’ it’ll be sad to see Papley go’.
‘Yeah’ said Buddy.
‘And how will it feel having Daniher playing with you?’ I ventured.
‘That’d be awesome’ replied Buddy suddenly a notch more excited.
‘Well, good luck next year’ I added.
‘Thanks’ said Buddy.
‘Wow’ I thought, that was awesome. I wish I was a Melbourne journalist so I could happily and truthfully (truthfully according to my mind) deduce from my in-depth conversation with Buddy that:

1. Papley is leaving because he’s terminally depressed from living in a hovel barely one step up from a Mumbai pig-sty and everyone here hates him and the Swans have gone out of their way to make his life miserable and unbearable and it will take the better part of $900k per annum to pay for his psychological rehabilitation.

2. Daniher is being traded for picks 5, and 9 and all our first-round picks for the next decade plus we’re throwing in Buddy, Heeney, Mills, Blakey and Horse plus we’re being banned from trading for 5 years.

3. Jones, although his name wasn’t mentioned, is being given to St Kilda along with a butcher’s block and a kilo of horsemeat.

Sadly I’m not a Melbourne journalist and for the most part am reduced to relying on facts to get by. What I deduced from my encounter was this:

1. Buddy would be sad to see Papley go.
2. Buddy thinks it would be awesome to play in the same team as Daniher.
3. Jesinta is radiantly pregnant.
4. It’s hard to find a GF in Sydney wo is obsessed with the Swans.
5. Jones could get a job in any butcher’s shop in the world.

Brilliant, classic Sydney Swans fan moment, thanks for sharing.

- - - Updated - - -

It was at Harley's house, or at least it started or ended there, which is a point I think we were happy to be misreported at the time.

Having said that, very stiff to be caught out anywhere - even if they went to Martin Place with a couple of bean bags and chatted there, the majority of people walking past wouldn't have had any idea who they were.

There was a story on trade radio that Tomlinson from the Giants drove past Harley's house and saw Daniher in Harley's car...gotta be unlucky.

[Mel_C]

It was at Harley's house, or at least it started or ended there, which is a point I think we were happy to be misreported at the time.

Having said that, very stiff to be caught out anywhere - even if they went to Martin Place with a couple of bean bags and chatted there, the majority of people walking past wouldn't have had any idea who they were.

I don't know if it's true but I read that Tomlinson saw them outside Harley's house.

[MattW]

Jon Ralph reckons Essendon might not even accept 5 and 9, and that Papley won't be traded out unless Daniher is traded in.

Category: | Herald Sun

[Aprilbr]

Yes, and I also note from that article that Carlton is considering splitting their number 9 pick. That would seemly scuttle any chance of a Papley deal proceeding.

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[Blood Fever]

Yes, and I also note from that article that Carlton is considering splitting their number 9 pick. That would seemly scuttle any chance of a Papley deal proceeding.

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If this is so, wonder if we have time to and a midfielder

[Thunder Shaker]

The AFL website floated a possible Jones trade involving four clubs:

Trade Wrap: Dogs won't budge on Bruce, Blues could pay up for Sun
"THE WESTERN Bulldogs remain unwilling to include their top draft selection – No.13 – in any negotiations for potential incoming bookends Josh Bruce and Alex Keath.

Bruce's worth is a polarising discussion, and St Kilda football boss Simon Lethlean told reporters on the opening day of the Telstra AFL Trade Period that pick 32 was not "appropriate" for him.



The article I linked also had some discussion on Cameron to Collingwood. That trade is likely to go ahead in exchange for late picks.

[Markwebbos]

The AFL website floated a possible Jones trade involving four clubs:

Trade Wrap: Dogs won't budge on Bruce, Blues could pay up for Sun
"THE WESTERN Bulldogs remain unwilling to include their top draft selection – No.13 – in any negotiations for potential incoming bookends Josh Bruce and Alex Keath.

Bruce's worth is a polarising discussion, and St Kilda football boss Simon Lethlean told reporters on the opening day of the Telstra AFL Trade Period that pick 32 was not "appropriate" for him.



The article I linked also had some discussion on Cameron to Collingwood. That trade is likely to go ahead in exchange for late picks.

Would we rather have Rupert Wills, James Aish or Matt Scharenberg from Collingwood than some late draft picks?

[111431]

Would we rather have Rupert Wills or James Aish from Collingwood than some late draft picks?

Yes