2019 trading, drafting and list management: players and personnel

[troyjones2525]

From what I’ve read about previous trades recently I’d say a 1st & 2nd will do it. Pretty similar to Hogan.

I’d offer next years first & this years 2nd. Essendon will counter with 2 firsts then it’ll probably end up with this years first and 2nd.

That would be the ideal scenario however more realistically I would think it would be this year's first rounder, not next year's due to needing plenty to draft likely 2 first rounders next year in Gulden and Campbell.

Pick 9 and 25 would be an excellent result if we could get Joe but I have my doubts that the notoriously difficult traders Essendon will except that.

Maybe it could end up trading 5 and 9 for Joe and their pick 31? I wouldn't be completely disappointed with that is we at least have two 2nd round picks to use, and possibly 3 if Jones goes for a 2nd rounder.

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[Ludwig]

I will be absolutely amazed if we dont split the pick 5 into pick 7 and pick 26 with Freeo (equal value and Freeo will jump at it I think)

That is the fairest solution to this jigsaw and has a good precedent

The way kinnear beatson discussed the draft keeping our pick 25 could be golden and could be Just as fruitful as a pick 6-15 given the drop off in talent after picks 1-4

Then the bombers get our pick 7 and pick 26

Could you explain what the difference would be between:

1. We split pick 5 for picks 7 and 26 and give those 2 picks to Essendon, and
2. We send pick 5 to Essendon, which they send to Freo for picks 7 and 26

[Blood Fever]

We shouldn't make any offer for Daniher. Period. I wouldn't even offer pick 60 for him. He will do more damage than good to the team next year regardless of fitness. We now know he wants come to Sydney. OK. Let's talk next year when you're a free agent. That's the only way we win in this deal.

We have plenty of young key KPPs that need senior playing time. And we need to find a mix of players and positions that works for us. There will be a fair bit of experimenting to do. Daniher locks down and limits our options in this regard. We are likely to lose Papley and Jones. We should focus on recruiting midfielders.

Daniher will create a Nankervis/Cameron type situation, where quality players will seek opportunities elsewhere for lack of opportunity.

Understand your fears about quality players. McCartin is one that springs to mind but he may be earmarked for Centre Half Back where he could be a star. Reid may be a casualty but he has teased for most of his career to a fair degree.

[Boddo]

Yeah ok . So your plan requires us to swap out our virtually all our third and fourth round picks this year for next years ? I suppose that might work but there is still a risk it wouldn’t be enough ( depending of course on how high the bids come in for Campbell and gulden )


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Academy players always get talked up. Happens every year. From what I’ve read and heard Gulden is possible top 5 and Campbell late first early 2nd.

It’s a strategy used by every club with academies & F/S, get in before the bid(finish in the cellar or trade down), split your high end pick or use later picks.

You can do this due to the discount, finishing next year from what I’ve been told. So next year most Iikely will be the last time using this loop hole. Use it while you can I’d say.

And like I’ve said those picks next year still carry the same points as last year and this year but due to quality of the draft next year your not getting the same quality of talent.

This is what I’d be trying to achieve. Next years first & pick 25 for Daniher. Similar to Hogan.

[Auntie.Gerald]

Ludwig
Thank u so much
What an idiot I am lol

I just came out of the garden for the last 8hrs and my brain wasn’t working

I meant give Freeo picks 7 and 42 and maybe pick 58

We keep the pick 26 plus we will have our pick 25

They ain’t going to get a better offer me thinks and it is still better then next year at this stage plus they have $900k free this season a year early which is significant

[Ludwig]

Understand your fears about quality players. McCartin is one that springs to mind but he may be earmarked for Centre Half Back where he could be a star. Reid may be a casualty but he has teased for most of his career to a fair degree.

There are plenty of other players in the mix, like Amartey, McLean, Maibaum and Pink. I don't think we are looking at superstars here, but any one of them could emerge as solid, first class players. We are also adding Barry O'Connor. I think Melican will make a good fullback in due course (maybe next year).

I am not so much against recruiting Daniher per se, as I am recruiting Daniher this year. It just seems disruptive, risky, costly and unnecessary. We will have to give up something for him. Maybe a lot.

Imagine looking back on a scenario where we give up pick 5, who Essendon use for Jacob Serong, who goes on to win a Brownlow medal, while Daniher is forced into retirement due to OP. It's an unlikely scenario, but why would we put ourselves into that position in any case.

It's not that I don't see a scenario where there's a big reward in the end, but evaluating this trade, at this time, under these circumstances, it seems a bad move, regardless of the results in the end. It's simply a risk management issue.

[Ludwig]

I just came out of the garden for the last 8hrs and my brain wasn’t working

Have you been trade talking with the garden gnomes again?

[Auntie.Gerald]

The mushrooms ???? ????

Ps - If Essendon are wanting to have Papley and we let paps go then everything changes again

[MattW]

There are plenty of other players in the mix, like Amartey, McLean, Maibaum and Pink. I don't think we are looking at superstars here, but any one of them could emerge as solid, first class players. We are also adding Barry O'Connor. I think Melican will make a good fullback in due course (maybe next year).

I am not so much against recruiting Daniher per se, as I am recruiting Daniher this year. It just seems disruptive, risky, costly and unnecessary. We will have to give up something for him. Maybe a lot.

Imagine looking back on a scenario where we give up pick 5, who Essendon use for Jacob Serong, who goes on to win a Brownlow medal, while Daniher is forced into retirement due to OP. It's an unlikely scenario, but why would we put ourselves into that position in any case.

It's not that I don't see a scenario where there's a big reward in the end, but evaluating this trade, at this time, under these circumstances, it seems a bad move, regardless of the results in the end. It's simply a risk management issue.

At this stage, the four you mentioned in the first sentence are unlikely to play 100 games between them, let alone spearhead a finals winning team, which Daniher has the ability to do.

Agree it seems better to wait a year, particularly if we lose pick 5. However, it seems there is an opportunity to call Essendon's bluff, because if he doesn't play much/well next year they will get nothing for him.

[Blood Fever]

There are plenty of other players in the mix, like Amartey, McLean, Maibaum and Pink. I don't think we are looking at superstars here, but any one of them could emerge as solid, first class players. We are also adding Barry O'Connor. I think Melican will make a good fullback in due course (maybe next year).

I am not so much against recruiting Daniher per se, as I am recruiting Daniher this year. It just seems disruptive, risky, costly and unnecessary. We will have to give up something for him. Maybe a lot.

Imagine looking back on a scenario where we give up pick 5, who Essendon use for Jacob Serong, who goes on to win a Brownlow medal, while Daniher is forced into retirement due to OP. It's an unlikely scenario, but why would we put ourselves into that position in any case.

It's not that I don't see a scenario where there's a big reward in the end, but evaluating this trade, at this time, under these circumstances, it seems a bad move, regardless of the results in the end. It's simply a risk management issue.

Lot of things to happen before anything is resolved. If Essendon are too unreasonable, we don't have to pull the trigger.

[Markwebbos]

I think there is a bit of a Catch-22 with Daniher. If we trade for him this year there’s a risk he won’t overcome his OP, but if we wait until 2020 and he does return to fitness he’ll want to stay with the Bombers.

So it’s a question of what we think his chances are of overcoming his OP and how much we are prepared to pay to take that risk.

The fact that the Bombers haven’t offered him a contract beyond 2020 makes me suspicious that they aren’t confident he’ll recover 100%, but they clearly have to make all the right noises to maximise his trade value.

Also reckon losing Daniher would be a PR disaster, so they have to be seen to be fighting to keep him, even if they are wanting to offload him.

[Aprilbr]

If Essendon loses him as a RFA next year they will pick up a compensation pick. Given the salary he is likely to attract this would most likely be a late first rounder. So it's not quite true to say they will get nothing for him If he leaves next year. Our deal needs to be materially better than that outcome in their eyes for a deal to be done this year.

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[Markwebbos]

I also wonder if the state of Buddy’s body is a factor in wanting JD at the Swans in 2020 rather than 2021?

[liz]

but if we wait until 2020 and he does return to fitness he’ll want to stay with the Bombers.

Not sure that follows. I hope his reasons for wanting a move are more than just frustration with injury. Of course, if he does play the majority of next year with the Bombers and they enjoy some success, there's a chance he could change his mind. If so, so be it. But there has to be something attractive to him about moving to Sydney (the city and the club).

[Ralph Dawg]

This is massive. If it comes off, we have a seamless transition from Buddy to Joey. Daniher will not only be a key target inside 50, but will also be our main man, from a marketing point of view.

If it flops, either because he can't regain form or fitness, then it sets our club back badly, both from the point of view of our rebuild and also salary cap. Trades aside, if we do sign him, I really hope it is a 2 year contract with a trigger for another 3 - 5 years based on how he goes (games played and goals kicked). Imagine if we sign him straight up to a 5 - 7 year contract and he just can't get on the park?

In terms of our list, it would suggest Papley has one foot out the door. Reid would be nervous and could either find himself playing down back or traded for peanuts.

Overall, I'm against bringing him in. But if the club is determined to get Daniher, then a best case, realistic, scenario would be pick 9 (essentially a straight swap for Paps). That would still leave us pick 5.