2019 trading, drafting and list management: players and personnel

[rb4x]

The Lions did not get Elliott who has re-signed with the Pies.

[Auntie.Gerald]

Third party payments work so well for the pies

[bloodspirit]

I'd prefer if we went for Knight over Taylor. Taylor couldn't make the Lions best 22 over Cam Rayner when he was stinking it up, which is a worry.

I reckon he will end up being a Rose 2.0. Will kill it in the NEAFL side, but won't translate that form at AFL level. Pass.

First, Taylor and Knight aren't alternatives. I don't know much about Knight but I gather they are different types of players.

Second, the Lions may have chosen to invest in Rayner because he was a #1 draft pick with more upside and a bigger part of their future which might partially account for them selecting him ahead of Taylor. However, I agree it is concerning that Taylor was not selected.

Third, Taylor is no Rose. He was talked about as a first round draft pick pre-draft, unlike Rose. He won the NAB Rising Star in his first year of AFL footy (ahead of no less than Marcus Bontempelli), unlike Rose. He has played over 100 senior AFL games, unlike Rose. Not a fair comparison.

[bloodspirit]

AFL Draft Central have published their October 'draft power rankings': Draft Central Power Rankings: October 2019 - Aussie Rules Draft Central. Serong rated #3, Young #4, Ash #5. No change in the top 14 but Will Day and Finn Maguiness have risen beyond that.

[bloodspirit]

ESPN has published a list of clubs' list needs. Here is what they think we need - interesting 1st, 2nd and 3rd greatest needs according to them all involve midfielders: Trade, free agency, draft: Your club's list needs

List needs

1. General forward/midfielder
2. Midfield pace
3. Big bodied ball-winning midfielder


Draft picks: 5, 25, 42, 51, 59, 60, 78
Who should they target? Needing more potency up forward and through the midfield, Sam Flanders would fit Sydney's front half and give the Swans greater opportunity to play Isaac Heeney more often through the midfield.
For midfield pace, ex-West Coast midfielder Luke Partington, who won this year's Magarey Medal as the SANFL's best and fairest, would be a plug and play addition who likely can be selected late in the draft.
With Aiden Bonar unable to earn regular selection and Greater Western Sydney's midfield, he would ideally fit Sydney's list as an underutilised midfielder who can succeed Josh Kennedy.

So another source suggesting Partington might be worth a look. Seems like a reasonable potential use of a late draft pick, or rookie draft if he's still there - as another poster said earlier.

They have suggested Bonar is a target worth considering and I agree, even if he hasn't set the world on fire, hopefully he wouldn't cost too much. In general think that Demons and Giants deep midfield stocks are ripe for the picking and we should be targetting one of them (although Bonar would probably be about my 10th choice).

[Jimitron5000]

I read somewhere that Richmond were interested in Jones. What about Jones + pick 25 for their pick 19? That could satisfy Essendon's (in my opinion ridiculous) demand for two first rounders.

[Markwebbos]

I read somewhere that Richmond were interested in Jones. What about Jones + pick 25 for their pick 19? That could satisfy Essendon's (in my opinion ridiculous) demand for two first rounders.

I thought they might be thinking of using the Ellis compensation pick on Jones, until they found out it was a second rounder and then Jones announced he was going to the Saints. I presume they'll try and pass on what they get for Bruce, which they've said needs to be better than the Dogs pick 32. But Dogs only have 13, 32, 45... So might need to use a future pick or split their pick 13.

[bloodspirit]

I read somewhere that Richmond were interested in Jones. What about Jones + pick 25 for their pick 19? That could satisfy Essendon's (in my opinion ridiculous) demand for two first rounders.

1. Jones is worth more to us than the 6 places between pick 19 and pick 25.

2. Jones isn't going to Richmond. They can't afford to pay him.

[Ludwig]

I read somewhere that Richmond were interested in Jones. What about Jones + pick 25 for their pick 19? That could satisfy Essendon's (in my opinion ridiculous) demand for two first rounders.

If Jones goes to Richmond it will be for pick 19. We won't have to give back a pick.

I heard someone from the St Kilda, maybe their list manager, mention Blake Acres in a way that suggested to me that he might be available for trade. I think the Saints will have trouble trading picks for Jones, in that they won't have any left this year. It would probably have to be a 2020 2nd rounder and either a 2020 3rd rounder or the pick they get for Steven. I think a swap for Acres wouldn't be all that bad.

Tom Cutler is similar to Acres, around the same size and skill set, and both came from the same draft as Jones. I wouldn't mind getting 1 of the 2 as a Jones replacement, although they are different players from Jones. I would imagine that Cutler would go to Sydney for the right deal.

[Jimitron5000]

1. Jones is worth more to us than the 6 places between pick 19 and pick 25.

2. Jones isn't going to Richmond. They can't afford to pay him.

In isolation I agree, but it could be worthwhile if we need something more to get Daniher without trading away picks 5 and 9 (assuming we get it).

[bloodspirit]

Trade radio reporting that Essendon are inquiring about the availability of Mason Cox which is being interpreted as an indication that the are willing/resigned to trade Daniher and promising for our prospects of getting JD.

[Thunder Shaker]

I read somewhere that Richmond were interested in Jones. What about Jones + pick 25 for their pick 19? That could satisfy Essendon's (in my opinion ridiculous) demand for two first rounders.

Essendon are under some AFL pressure to use first-round picks.

First-round pick rule: How is your club placed?

"The Hawks and Demons would go into deficit for 2020 if they also trade their first-round picks this year – without adding another – with their two selections from 2015 dropping off for next year's Trade Period.

Neither club has drafted in the first round since.

Essendon will be in the same situation next year unless it can trade in an extra one, because it sent its 2018 and 2019 first-round picks to Greater Western Sydney as part of the Dylan Shiel swap.

The Bombers' two first-round selections in 2015 will also drop off the rolling four-year mandate."

Essendon's first-round picks: 2015: 2, 2016: 1, 2017: 0 2018: 0 2019: 0

Having used no first round picks in the last two drafts and possessing no first-round pick in this year's draft either, Essendon are under some pressure to acquire first-round picks. If Essendon do not acquire and use a first-round pick this year, they would have used only one first-round pick in four years and would be barred from trading their 2020 and 2021 first-round picks unless they can acquire and use another. This is probably why they are keen on receiving two first-round picks for Daniher.

We can give them two first-rounders, if we split our pick 5 with GWS. Give GWS 5 and 44 (2256 points) in exchange for their picks 12 and 18 (2253 points), on-trade 12 and 18 to Essendon for Daniher and then the clubs can haggle over later picks.

[Boddo]

Id imagine for anyone suggesting to draft Partington he’d be free as a delisted free agent or able to be selected as a supplemental selection after the draft.

[Ludwig]

There is no way Daniher can stay in Essendon next year. They are in a very weak position.

Joe will go through something similar to what Adam Goodes went through. He won't be racially abused, but he will be booed by his own fans. He will get niggled by opposition players all year. It will be a very painful sight for his family, especially his dying uncle. I wouldn't be surprised if Joe would get dropped from the team or had to take some time away from the game. The pain of the Danihers will be the lead subject for Tim Watson every day on SEN. And Mathew Lloyd will continue to pressure Joe to stay with Essendon.

If we had traded Hanners 2 years earlier, 2016, we would have gotten 2 first round picks. But we didn't and he went last year for a 2nd rounder. His first year hasn't been impressive, missing most of the season with lingering injuries incurred post 2016. One of the reasons we only got a 2nd round picks was that St Kilda assumed Hanners' injury risk, which has so far turned out to be very real.

The same holds true for Joe Daniher. If Essendon would have traded him 2 years ago, he easily would have garnered 2 first round picks, and more. But they didn't trade him and now things are different. The situation is not all that different than with Hanners, except Hanners wouldn't have been booed a deal couldn't be made. And Hanners was not going to be a free agent the following year.

I think Beatson should remind Dodoro the kind of future that looms if they push their weak hand too far.

I don't know why we should remotely consider giving Essendon 2 1st rounders. Just one is a gift. We can wait a year and give up any picks, plus we get to see it Joe is fit enough to play. We probably made a commitment to Joe to make the deal happen so he doesn't have to go through the scenario outlined, but everyone has to get realistic and examine the facts on the ground.

[Thunder Shaker]

If Jones goes to Richmond it will be for pick 19. We won't have to give back a pick.

In theory yes, but in practice the trading may be more complex.

We will want to nibble for late-round picks in next year's draft. If we gave Richmond pick 54 in exchange for their 2020 third-round pick, the trade may be Jones and pick 54 to Richmond for pick 19 and their 2020 third-round pick. Richmond will then own two picks in the second round and another two in the third round that they could use or trade.

A caveat is that 2020 picks are a bit more valuable than 2019 picks due to the relative quality of the drafts.