2019 trading, drafting and list management: players and personnel

[Mountain Man]

I like the economic argument made by Ludwig for delaying any offer for one year - another year off Buddy's payment, and another (?$800,00 saved in the meantime.

I also like the on-field look of a Buddy who played the last match this year, and who presumably will move through a full pre-season; with Reid, McCartin, Blakey and Dawson as further "talls" who have pretty fair talent.

The loss of Papley seems to me more significant as to forward line balance (Ronke still a bit of a question mark), rather than a shortage of "talls"

Franklin is contracted for 2021.

[waswan]

Only get rid of Papley if it lands Joe D but priority should be keeping this years Pick 5 and next years 1st Round pick

[Ajax]

For what it’s worth:

Last night in the foyer of Hoyts cinema at the Entertainment Quarter at Moore Park while waiting for The Joker, Buddy and Jesinta walked in and sat next to us. (For a moment the four of us sat there, peacefully a long way outside the Melbourne fishbowl). Jesinta was radiantly beautiful, Buddy was chilled, I was visibly jumping out of my skin thinking holy @@@@@@ here’s my chance to get the inside scoop on Daniher and Papley. My GF who doesn’t know the difference between Buddy Franklyn and Buddy Guy was like ‘WTF is wrong with you? Why are you suddenly acting like a complete d**ckhead?’ Having spent the last few weeks pouring over the pages of RWO trying to get my head around what is happening with Daniher and Papley and Jones and Harley and KB and the Swans management and Dodoro et al and coming away from each session feeling in turns frustrated, angry, deeply saddened, elated, perplexed to the point of insanity, mystified and/or stupefied or all of the above simultaneously I decided to do a very rash thing (and yes I felt bad because I knew by taking this action I would create a Sydney fishbowl – albeit a very small one containing only four fish, well three really as my GF is devoid of any AFL content or intent), and ask Buddy.
‘Hi Buddy’ I said as he walked by with something to eat.
‘Uh, hi’ said Buddy visibly shocked and surprised that someone in Sydney recognised him.
‘I’m Ajax’ I said. ‘So,’ it’ll be sad to see Papley go’.
‘Yeah’ said Buddy.
‘And how will it feel having Daniher playing with you?’ I ventured.
‘That’d be awesome’ replied Buddy suddenly a notch more excited.
‘Well, good luck next year’ I added.
‘Thanks’ said Buddy.
‘Wow’ I thought, that was awesome. I wish I was a Melbourne journalist so I could happily and truthfully (truthfully according to my mind) deduce from my in-depth conversation with Buddy that:

1. Papley is leaving because he’s terminally depressed from living in a hovel barely one step up from a Mumbai pig-sty and everyone here hates him and the Swans have gone out of their way to make his life miserable and unbearable and it will take the better part of $900k per annum to pay for his psychological rehabilitation.

2. Daniher is being traded for picks 5, and 9 and all our first-round picks for the next decade plus we’re throwing in Buddy, Heeney, Mills, Blakey and Horse plus we’re being banned from trading for 5 years.

3. Jones, although his name wasn’t mentioned, is being given to St Kilda along with a butcher’s block and a kilo of horsemeat.

Sadly I’m not a Melbourne journalist and for the most part am reduced to relying on facts to get by. What I deduced from my encounter was this:

1. Buddy would be sad to see Papley go.
2. Buddy thinks it would be awesome to play in the same team as Daniher.
3. Jesinta is radiantly pregnant.
4. It’s hard to find a GF in Sydney wo is obsessed with the Swans.
5. Jones could get a job in any butcher’s shop in the world.

[waswan]

Or give them Papley and 25, tell Paps its his only chance to get to Melbourne

[rb4x]

Bombers are now happy with 5, 9 and one of Parker, Mills or Florent for Daniher. LOL

[Steve]

I wouldn't think so. Tom Lynch would be worth at least 2 top 10 picks in the open market. No team would want to lose a Tom Lynch, but Lynch wanted to go, so he went for a compo pick.

Yeah, but in the same circumstances Dangerfield wanted to leave Adelaide, who didn't want to lose him, yet a trade was done to the club of his choice who made the FA offer.

The difference between scenarios is where the club losing the player was on the ladder, hence where the compensation pick would be.

Clubs, like Gold Coast with Lynch, basically have the choice to take AFL compensation, or force a trade with the same club offering the FA contract. Matching a bid in the hope to orchestrate a trade to another club who the player doesn't want to go to doesn't make any sense, particularly in the short time frames between FA window opening and trade period closing.

So when I said Gold Coast couldn't get a better trade than pick 3, I think that was right in the context it was Richmond they would have been negotiating that trade with. What 'the open market' would value a FA at is somewhat irrelevant as you are only choosing between the AFL's compensation or what the club the player has agreed a contract with is willing to trade for.

We would have had to do a trade with Hawthorn if it were not for offering such a massive long-term contract, that they were not prepared to match on that basis. Otherwise they would have matched our bid on the basis the compensation they got was paltry compared to what a trade would have been.

[Aprilbr]

I think the Swans have privately resigned themselves to the likelihood that Daniher will not be coming to them this year due to Essendon's total refusal to be reasonable. Their focus will now turn to the Papley and Jones situations. It's probably not worth them making this public in case Essendon miraculously relent at the 11th hour. I think the Swans will deal Papley if it's for Number 9 but not if they have to give back some other major pick. I'm sure that Number 32 for Jones is not to their liking so they will be hoping to bring someone else into the trade to get a better pick.

Sent from my SM-G965F using Tapatalk

[Ralph Dawg]

Or give them Papley and 25, tell Paps its his only chance to get to Melbourne

The main thing stopping this is that they have Fantasia and MTW already. If Fantasia had gone, this might have been a possibility and, as sad as it would be for us to lose Paps, something most could live with (but still overs IMO).

[Legs Akimbo]

For what it’s worth:

Last night in the foyer of Hoyts cinema at the Entertainment Quarter at Moore Park while waiting for The Joker, Buddy and Jesinta walked in and sat next to us. (For a moment the four of us sat there, peacefully a long way outside the Melbourne fishbowl). Jesinta was radiantly beautiful, Buddy was chilled, I was visibly jumping out of my skin thinking holy @@@@@@ here’s my chance to get the inside scoop on Daniher and Papley. My GF who doesn’t know the difference between Buddy Franklyn and Buddy Guy was like ‘WTF is wrong with you? Why are you suddenly acting like a complete d**ckhead?’ Having spent the last few weeks pouring over the pages of RWO trying to get my head around what is happening with Daniher and Papley and Jones and Harley and KB and the Swans management and Dodoro et al and coming away from each session feeling in turns frustrated, angry, deeply saddened, elated, perplexed to the point of insanity, mystified and/or stupefied or all of the above simultaneously I decided to do a very rash thing (and yes I felt bad because I knew by taking this action I would create a Sydney fishbowl – albeit a very small one containing only four fish, well three really as my GF is devoid of any AFL content or intent), and ask Buddy.
‘Hi Buddy’ I said as he walked by with something to eat.
‘Uh, hi’ said Buddy visibly shocked and surprised that someone in Sydney recognised him.
‘I’m Ajax’ I said. ‘So,’ it’ll be sad to see Papley go’.
‘Yeah’ said Buddy.
‘And how will it feel having Daniher playing with you?’ I ventured.
‘That’d be awesome’ replied Buddy suddenly a notch more excited.
‘Well, good luck next year’ I added.
‘Thanks’ said Buddy.
‘Wow’ I thought, that was awesome. I wish I was a Melbourne journalist so I could happily and truthfully (truthfully according to my mind) deduce from my in-depth conversation with Buddy that:

1. Papley is leaving because he’s terminally depressed from living in a hovel barely one step up from a Mumbai pig-sty and everyone here hates him and the Swans have gone out of their way to make his life miserable and unbearable and it will take the better part of $900k per annum to pay for his psychological rehabilitation.

2. Daniher is being traded for picks 5, and 9 and all our first-round picks for the next decade plus we’re throwing in Buddy, Heeney, Mills, Blakey and Horse plus we’re being banned from trading for 5 years.

3. Jones, although his name wasn’t mentioned, is being given to St Kilda along with a butcher’s block and a kilo of horsemeat.

Sadly I’m not a Melbourne journalist and for the most part am reduced to relying on facts to get by. What I deduced from my encounter was this:

1. Buddy would be sad to see Papley go.
2. Buddy thinks it would be awesome to play in the same team as Daniher.
3. Jesinta is radiantly pregnant.
4. It’s hard to find a GF in Sydney wo is obsessed with the Swans.
5. Jones could get a job in any butcher’s shop in the world.

Thanks Ajax. I thoroughly enjoyed reading that. Buddy always seems like a big kid. The big alpha who rules the playground. I get a huge buzz from watching his face light up when he smiles, seemingly bouncing from foot to foot talking footy, something he clearly loves. Glad he's ours now. That trade worked out.

Who knows, maybe will work out again in about 18 years when we sign up an incredibly good looking smart kid with a strut. She'll be a ripper for us.

A final ponder. If JD had made a better call and signed with us in 2012 would we have traded in Buddy back in 2014?

[Ajax]

Thanks Ajax. I thoroughly enjoyed reading that. Buddy always seems like a big kid. The big alpha who rules the playground. I get a huge buzz from watching his face light up when he smiles, seemingly bouncing from foot to foot talking footy, something he clearly loves. Glad he's ours now. That trade worked out.

Who knows, maybe will work out again in about 18 years when we sign up an incredibly good looking smart kid with a strut. She'll be a ripper for us.

A final ponder. If JD had made a better call and signed with us in 2012 would we have traded in Buddy back in 2014?

Interesting ponder. We took a punt on the Twin Towers with Buddy and Tippet so it's conceivable we'd have done the same with Danhiher and Buddy. Sadly one of the towers collapsed and we ended up with the much-maligned Dean Towers and Buddy.

[Ludwig]

Yeah, but in the same circumstances Dangerfield wanted to leave Adelaide, who didn't want to lose him, yet a trade was done to the club of his choice who made the FA offer.

The difference between scenarios is where the club losing the player was on the ladder, hence where the compensation pick would be.

Clubs, like Gold Coast with Lynch, basically have the choice to take AFL compensation, or force a trade with the same club offering the FA contract. Matching a bid in the hope to orchestrate a trade to another club who the player doesn't want to go to doesn't make any sense, particularly in the short time frames between FA window opening and trade period closing.

So when I said Gold Coast couldn't get a better trade than pick 3, I think that was right in the context it was Richmond they would have been negotiating that trade with. What 'the open market' would value a FA at is somewhat irrelevant as you are only choosing between the AFL's compensation or what the club the player has agreed a contract with is willing to trade for.

We would have had to do a trade with Hawthorn if it were not for offering such a massive long-term contract, that they were not prepared to match on that basis. Otherwise they would have matched our bid on the basis the compensation they got was paltry compared to what a trade would have been.

I agree that the compensation pick is a key element in how these RFA deals go down. But there are many other factors as well.

Firstly, I think the Dangerfield deal was an accommodation by Geelong to come to something fairer for Adelaide in the transaction. In the end, they only gave up picks 9 and 28. I think we'd do picks 9 and 25 for Daniher. Geelong are both fair and astute traders and enjoy having that reputation.

The Giants forced Cam McCarthy to sit out a season, but they had to make a stand on players walking out, and he was a contracted player, not a FA.

I can't recall any other RFA contract matches (maybe someone can jolt the memory). I don't know what Essendon might do next year, but history says that the player goes free to the club of choice.

It's not really a benefit for Essendon to have Daniher on their list next year, while it is a benefit for us, financially, developmentally and for medical risk assessment.

From Essendon's perspective, they should just take pick 9 and whatever else they can get. I think the Swans would throw in pick 25 or Zak Jones, as well as Hayden McLean, who at least plays the same position as Daniher and might have a future in the AFL. So we lose Papley, Jones (or equivalent picks) and McLean for Daniher. That sounds more than fair to me. It's better than keeping Joe on their list, destabilizing the club for the year and then losing him for a mid first round compo pick.

I hope someone from the list management team is reading this thread. I don't think we are saying anything they don't already know, but they can get a feel for where the fan sentiment lies.

[barry]

I'm surprised the Patton trade has not gone ahead. Maybe it's involved in a 3 way deal...

Sydney:
In: daniher. Out: pick 25 and 30 (Jones)

GWS:
In: pick 25 and 30. Out: Patton, pick 40-ish

Essendon:
In: Patton, pick 40. Out: daniher.

Suits everyone. We want daniher. GWS want draft points (picks), Essendon want a replacement key forward.

[Beerman]

I'm surprised the Patton trade has not gone ahead. Maybe it's involved in a 3 way deal...

Sydney:
In: daniher. Out: pick 25 and 30 (Jones)

GWS:
In: pick 25 and 30. Out: Patton, pick 40-ish

Essendon:
In: Patton, pick 40. Out: daniher.

Suits everyone. We want daniher. GWS want draft points (picks), Essendon want a replacement key forward.

That would be a steal for us - I don't think it will happen.

It's interesting to compare Patton and Daniher though. Both are incredibly talented key position players who have long and problematic injury records, especially in recent years. Yet somehow the press think that Patton is worth a second-rounder and Daniher is worth more than two top 10 picks. It makes no sense whatsoever.

I was glad to read on the AFL website that "Swans have shut down any discussion over the key duo [Heeney and Blakey]" as part of the deal. That would be madness.

Disappointingly though, I still hear that we might offer more than 5 and 25, which I think is more than a fair offer.

[Ludwig]

I'm surprised the Patton trade has not gone ahead. Maybe it's involved in a 3 way deal...

Sydney:
In: daniher. Out: pick 25 and 30 (Jones)

GWS:
In: pick 25 and 30. Out: Patton, pick 40-ish

Essendon:
In: Patton, pick 40. Out: daniher.

Suits everyone. We want daniher. GWS want draft points (picks), Essendon want a replacement key forward.

I think there's a question about Patton's fitness, but you can say the same about Daniher.

The general idea sounds good. Considering that we will probably be willing to give Essendon picks 9 (Papley trade) and 25, why wouldn't Essendon send pick 25 to the Giants. It's more than Hawthorn are offering.

[liz]

I think there's a question about Patton's fitness, but you can say the same about Daniher.

The general idea sounds good. Considering that we will probably be willing to give Essendon picks 9 (Papley trade) and 25, why wouldn't Essendon send pick 25 to the Giants. It's more than Hawthorn are offering.

Or they could have Josh Bruce. The Dogs have done a mini-St Kilda - chased two players (Bruce and Keath) only to find the draft currency they are willing to give up isn't good enough to get both (though they do have more currency that they could use, if they chose to). I think the Saints have to let Bruce go if they are any chance of bringing in all the players they've made promises to. So if Essendon come to terms with Bruce, they can have him, we send Jones to St Kilda, and (reluctantly) another pick to Essendon. Or if they don't fancy Bruce, how about Acres? I don't know whether he wants to move, but either the Saints or the media have raised his name as someone the Saints might be prepared to lose.

On one hand I get Essendon wanting a player back. But I don't recall them having to give anyone up when they went and got Stringer, Shiel, Saad and Smith in recent seasons. It's not like the Swans aren't already set to lose at least one, maybe two, best 22 players that they'd much rather keep than lose.