2019 trading, drafting and list management: players and personnel

[Markwebbos]

What about offering Melbourne picks 5 and 25 for pick 3? It would allow us to get Green (possibly) and not mess up Melbourne's drafting of Jackson (probably)

I’d love to find a way to get pick 3 off Melbourne, and i don’t think this wouldn’t stop them getting Jackson, assuming they want to draft him. They may be into Green, Young or someone else.

[Mr Magoo]

I think a Recruiting Manager is in charge of recruitment (new players), so the buck stops with them as far as recruiting goes. BUT they work under the list manager, who is in charge of the bigger picture... So KB says he wants a tall forward, it's SD's job (and responsibility) to find that person.

Michael Agresta, ex Swans is now working at Carlton, so there is a connection there to lure KB. It may be that the Swans brought in SD expecting that KB would want to move on sometime - i.e. he is being groomed as his successor.

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GWS moving up the draft makes no sense if they want to match a bid on Green. It will be a failure unless they get a player before Green or they pass on him.

My point was if they are higher up the draft only a few clubs can match for Green. Lets say they want both Green and Delahunty, if they pick up green at 6, they then can sit and wait if someone else makes a call for Delahunty after that and they can match with enough points from lower order picks they have OR they just let him fall down the order if no one does try and take him.

Whereas, if they had their first pick at say fifteen , then they might find that matching bids for both green and delahunty becomes difficult.

Just me speculating and it might show my naivety at how the points system comes together.

[Markwebbos]

No club is going to bid on their own academy player. If no bid comes before 6 they’ll take someone else.

They didn’t need to move up the draft for Green as they already had the points before they traded up.

It cost them about 500 points to move up, which has weakened their ability to get Green and Delahunty.

[Mr Magoo]

No club is going to bid on their own academy player. If no bid comes before 6 they’ll take someone else.

They didn’t need to move up the draft for Green as they already had the points before they traded up.

It cost them about 500 points to move up, which has weakened their ability to get Green and Delahunty.

Understand your point re not going for green but lets say we bid at 5 , they elect to take him (therefore forgoing another pick 6) , will that put them in any better position to also match for Delahunty should they need to or does it make no difference ?

Say in my example Sydney also then choose to bid for Delahunty at 25 or 32 which comes before GWS Pick 40

[dazedjosh]

Understand your point re not going for green but lets say we bid at 5 , they elect to take him (therefore forgoing another pick 6) , will that put them in any better position to also match for Delahunty should they need to or does it make no difference ?

Say in my example Sydney also then choose to bid for Delahunty at 25 or 32 which comes before GWS Pick 40

Ok so if we bid on Green at 5 they will almost undoubtedly match because it effectively costs them nothing and gains them nothing. To match a bid the team matching gets a 20% discount on the points required. This system is being reviewed for future drafts but is still in place.
So we bid on Green at 5 that means 1878 - 376 (20%) = 1502
Pick 6 is worth 1751 so they can match 1502 and 249 points remaining, meaning they would get Green and pick 52 in return.

So they will definitely match because at that point they might as well. They won't get two top 10 picks like they hope, but not matching would mean that a crosstown rival gets the player that they have developed.

So then let's say we bid on Delahunty at 25. That's where things get interesting. It should be noted I don't think we will bid on Delahunty but let's say we do.
25 is worth 756 points.
So 756 -150 (20%) leaves them with 606 points to make up. That would require 40 (429) and 52 (246) with 69 points remaining meaning they get lose both of those picks and get Delahunty and pick 69 in return.

So the Giants would have Green, Delahunty, 59, 60, 69, 80, and 94 if we bid on both of their players and they matched. Assuming no draft night trading happened.

EDIT - It should also be noted that the reason the Giants traded up was specifically in the hope that they can get two top 10 players. If they had kept their original picks, they would be in a better position to match on Green and still have some 2nd or 3rd round picks left over to use. But doing it this way means they have a genuine chance at two top 10 talents in this draft. So even if they trade out of next year's 1st round, they don't care because they don't have any academy first rounders next year, and it is a draft that has a lot of father/son and academy kids in the first 2 rounds anyway. They may as well get top talent now, then skip the 2020 draft. It's a good tactic on their part but one that I hope backfires for them as they are the Giants.

[Mr Magoo]

Ok so if we bid on Green at 5 they will almost undoubtedly match because it effectively costs them nothing and gains them nothing. To match a bid the team matching gets a 20% discount on the points required. This system is being reviewed for future drafts but is still in place.
So we bid on Green at 5 that means 1878 - 376 (20%) = 1502
Pick 6 is worth 1751 so they can match 1502 and 249 points remaining, meaning they would get Green and pick 52 in return.

So they will definitely match because at that point they might as well. They won't get two top 10 picks like they hope, but not matching would mean that a crosstown rival gets the player that they have developed.

So then let's say we bid on Delahunty at 25. That's where things get interesting. It should be noted I don't think we will bid on Delahunty but let's say we do.
25 is worth 756 points.
So 756 -150 (20%) leaves them with 606 points to make up. That would require 40 (429) and 52 (246) with 69 points remaining meaning they get lose both of those picks and get Delahunty and pick 69 in return.

So the Giants would have Green, Delahunty, 59, 60, 69, 80, and 94 if we bid on both of their players and they matched. Assuming no draft night trading happened.

EDIT - It should also be noted that the reason the Giants traded up was specifically in the hope that they can get two top 10 players. If they had kept their original picks, they would be in a better position to match on Green and still have some 2nd or 3rd round picks left over to use. But doing it this way means they have a genuine chance at two top 10 talents in this draft. So even if they trade out of next year's 1st round, they don't care because they don't have any academy first rounders next year, and it is a draft that has a lot of father/son and academy kids in the first 2 rounds anyway. They may as well get top talent now, then skip the 2020 draft. It's a good tactic on their part but one that I hope backfires for them as they are the Giants.

Right , get it now. See your reasoning around next year as well as GWS dont seem to have anyone at this time that is likely to go top 20 . The other factor is they may also think they can trade back in to next years draft if need be during the trade period when one or more melbourne clubs inevitably decide that one of the local boys needs to come home from GWS.

[stevoswan]

Let's hope we uncover some '1994 like' jewels in the draft this year, even if picks 2 and 3 from that year pissed off back to Victoria pretty quickly. Check the gem we got at pick 40 and the bonus 'zone selection'!

The golden Swans of 1994 - sydneyswans.com.au

[rickmat]

Today is another delisting deadline for teams. It will be interesting how many teams add to their delistings.

[Pmcc2911]

Agree he is not a top 10 pick but more like a top 30 pick. (Delahunty that is)

[dazedjosh]

If I'm not mistaked, Delahunty was rated pretty highly in his underage year, but seems to have dropped off in 2019. It happens with young guys and I'd imagine he'll be in that 30-40 range. It will be interesting to see how Gulden and Campbell develop for us as their underage years have been really strong, and they could go either way in 2020. As they're both a bit small I doubt they'll crack the top 10 but they seem to be pretty talented and I look forward to them running around in the red and white.

Because of the two of them being available to us in 2020 I also think we'll see the Swans trade out of the draft as soon as we've got 2 or 3 players to start stockpiling points for those guys.

[bloodspirit]

Ok so if we bid on Green at 5 they will almost undoubtedly match because it effectively costs them nothing and gains them nothing. To match a bid the team matching gets a 20% discount on the points required. This system is being reviewed for future drafts but is still in place.
So we bid on Green at 5 that means 1878 - 376 (20%) = 1502
Pick 6 is worth 1751 so they can match 1502 and 249 points remaining, meaning they would get Green and pick 52 in return.

So they will definitely match because at that point they might as well. They won't get two top 10 picks like they hope, but not matching would mean that a crosstown rival gets the player that they have developed.

First, if GWS use pick 6 to match the a bid for Green by us at pick 5, they don't get back pick 52 as 'change'. They just lose the points difference.

Second, although I think failing to get a pick in before a bid for Green makes for a trade period disaster for the Giants, I think they will still match the bid but I hold some hope that they won't. They are already very well stocked for inside mids and it would mean their whole strategy of trading picks 12 and 18 for pick 6 (at a cost of MANY hundreds of 'draft value points') will not necessarily prove to be a flawed and and poorly executed strategy ending in farce. Although, losing a top end talent from their own Academy would remain a disaster whichever way you slice it, which is why I expect them to match. I still think the Giants are likely to trade up the order somehow and at (additional) great expense. Time will tell.

I am slightly warming to Flanders. After initially being dismayed after seeing his 'highlights' package, I am being swayed by all the people who oughta know talking him up real high. I hope the Crows take him and we can pick someone else better. But if they don't, and we wind up with him, I'll try to stay optimistic. Not sure how I feel about us drafting Jackson if we get the opportunity. Probably I will just reserve judgment and hope he comes good down the track. Not too keen on Robertson. Don't think we should risk Kemp given our recent run with injured players. Young would be good. Serong seems to be sliding. Ash?

[Mr Magoo]

If I'm not mistaked, Delahunty was rated pretty highly in his underage year, but seems to have dropped off in 2019. It happens with young guys and I'd imagine he'll be in that 30-40 range. It will be interesting to see how Gulden and Campbell develop for us as their underage years have been really strong, and they could go either way in 2020. As they're both a bit small I doubt they'll crack the top 10 but they seem to be pretty talented and I look forward to them running around in the red and white.

Because of the two of them being available to us in 2020 I also think we'll see the Swans trade out of the draft as soon as we've got 2 or 3 players to start stockpiling points for those guys.

Can happen with big guys as they may be dominating at the underage level mainly because of their size and then when the field starts to catch up , other shortcomings may become apparent (such as lack of pace, kicking ability , ground ball ability and contested marking). Not sure if Delahunty falls into this basket but this has happened with Rayner this year from the Swans academy.

Cant see it happening with Gulden and Campbell. They arent getting any smaller and they have proven that there size hasnt been an issue so far.

[bloodspirit]

Apparently we are considering Ollie Florent's younger brother, Jai, and he will train with us: Family ties could see another speed demon land at Swans - AFL.com.au. Also confirmation that Hebron, Bartholomaeus and Aidyn Johnson are all currently training with us (as I reported last week).

[Mr Magoo]

Not sure on the whole younger brother thing - in my experience younger brothers of drafted players generally get a bigger legup in junior years because of it, so if he hasnt broken into the dragons lineup late this year (as the brother of a well regarded player like Ollie) , really have to question the merit of taking him unless there is someone (other than just being Ollies brother) that the Swans see that his local coaches havent.

If you consider that his current coaches arent going to come out and say "We dont rate him, hes nowhere near as good as his brother" the rather diplomatic response to me doesnt really give me confidence.

[Auntie.Gerald]

Interesting
At my school and sports I payed the younger brothers killed t because they had t contend wth their older brothers day in day out

Examples in the AFL of both older or younger brother being better

Do like the idea of Johnson being given a shot

I would prefer him Fighting for a spot in our HBF rotation ......a little like the genius move made by Clarkson with a Johnson’s ex team mate Impey

Super quick Aidyn

Running off Dawson, AA, Rampe and our silent cop Mills lol