Pre-season 2020

[Ludwig]

After Hobart will R1 look like this?

B: Mills, Rampe, Aliir
HB: Dawson, Brand, Lloyd
C: Florent, Kennedy, Cunningham
HF: Blakey, McCartin, Hayward
F: Gray, Naismith, Papley
Foll: Sinclair, Parker, Heeney

Int: (from) O'Riordan, Hewett, Taylor, Rowbotton, Stephens, that's 4 of this 5? Blakey & Hayward are the two in the 18 who could be under pressure? Gray done enough? If Buddy is available who goes out? Lots of questions

Reid should be ready for Round 1 if he gets through the NEAFL practice match this week. I think he replaces Sinclair , who didn't offer much either up forward or in the ruck.

I don't have Stephens in the best 22, but we usually like to fast track at least one draftee every season, like Florent and Hayward 3 years ago, McCartin 2 years ago and Blakey and Rowbottom last year. So there is no ruling him out.

We're not a premiership side this year. We all know that. No need to worry about making the top 8, or meeting any particular ladder position goals.

The main thing is to see progress being made through the season. We should have some real talent in the NEAFL side this year, which should make for good entertainment. Hopefully our young players will improve and push for selection. Even if injuries to our best 22 force selection of some of these players, there's plenty to be gained over the long term.

When we can add 'Franklin' to the selected side, we look more than half decent, and quite competitive, even against the best sides in the comp.

[Syd76]

The best thing out of that performance was the effort. On balance we will be competitive, but as to how many wins that translates into we will see. Encouraging performances from Rowbottom and Taylor. I think that JPK has a bit of a chip on his shoulder given that Champion Data has rated our midfield poorly (in the bottom five of the league). Let's hope he plays like this week in week out. Thought that Aliir played well also.

The first month will give us the best gauge how we will fare for the whole season. We play ADE (away), ESS (home), GC (away), CARL (home). Two years ago we would pencil them in for wins.... interesting to see how we go....

Any news on how Elijah Taylor is tracking?

[royboy42]

+1, When he was injured last year, he was playing as well as he ever had. And that was a VERY high standard.
People forget quickly.

Don't agree at all with this. Cunningham was leading our B&F last year before he was injured.

His run, speed and carry off half back/wing is the perfect replacement for Zack Jones.

[Ralph Dawg]

One thing I noticed last year that doesn't seem to have improved (at least in the two trials) is our tackling. Our boys seem to drop off alot of tackles or our opponents seem to be able to free the arms and dispose of the ball prior to going to ground. Surely we could get a tackling / wrestling coach from the Roosters to come and help out.

Also, is it my imagination but other than Parker and JPK, our midfielders look quite puny compared to the competition? GWS in particular just looked so much more physically imposing. It was like boys playing men.

[Auntie.Gerald]

We're not a premiership side this year. We all know that. No need to worry about making the top 8, or meeting any particular ladder position goals.

The main thing is to see progress being made through the season. We should have some real talent in the NEAFL side this year, which should make for good entertainment. Hopefully our young players will improve and push for selection. Even if injuries to our best 22 force selection of some of these players, there's plenty to be gained over the long term.

When we can add 'Franklin' to the selected side, we look more than half decent, and quite competitive, even against the best sides in the comp.

Im not counting on Buddy anymore...........thats like hoping your past star stock keeps your whole portfolio above index year after year. We need a better strategy for success then that !!!!

Ludwig I feel that what you are saying is only part of the truth and not the true reality of where we are at.

Im not comfortable with "progress" unless it is truly quantified and benchmarked vs the competition..........

I dont see a team that can win its own ball better then its opponent and that concerns me greatly when this was against a fellow bottom team. Against GWS it was bloody terrible and GWS had 6 rep midfielders not playing.

I dont see superior skills and nor cohesion vs a fellow bottom of the table team.........im not seeing a squad that is any better then bottom 5 on the ladder.

Worst of all we are primarily playing a style of football ie stack our backline to minimise blow outs by running into a wall of 18 players...... but that has a massive opportunity cost. Flooding your backline makes it very difficult to score and to breakaway from your opposition. We have seen teams in the AFL and especially Soccer, park the bus in their own half, then counter attack a few times a half. We saw this vs another bottom team on Monday where we had half the inside 50s.......that just doesnt give you the chance to dominate nor put score board pressure on.........without scoreboard pressure the opposition is in the game and take over.

Im not seeing via recruitment that we have provided ourselves with the greatest probability to be back in the top8 in 2020 nor 2021.

The trajectory i am seeing is more then likely 3 years outside of the top8. That is not good enough for an AFL club and especially for the club i support. To many losses one, two and three years in row start to crush the aura of a culture like the Bloods. The players and opposition start to see our vulnerability.

Can the club hand on heart say they have provided us with the best chance or the greatest probability to be back in the Top8 in 2020 or Top4 by 2021 ?

No i dont think they can because the development of our youth strategy plus unwanted players the last three seasons we traded in or got for free is a high risk strategy.

A side by side strategy is crucial in the AFL......if we cant get a couple of key players traded in Nov 2020 we are in seriously deep water and maybe bouncing between the bottom 5 or so teams for an extended amount of time.

[Mr Magoo]

Have been watching the commentary evolution with interest . From playing all of the first years in round one to the stark reality after the first two games that maybe all of those rookies in the one team may not be such a good idea.

Its very simple for the swans this year, they will be competitive with their best team in but will need their next gen to step up. If they dont , then we will be back to the drawing board a little on the rebuild and we may struggle for the next few years. Its difficult to blame the recruiting as we were hampered for some time and maybe the starrk reality that we actually need COLA is coming home to roost. We have struggled to keep Jones, Mitchell and Papley from Melbourne clubs who have a falsely built in COLA through third party endoresements that the swans just cant offer in the sydney market.

We always made a an example of the recruiting teams abilty to take players who were fair at other clubs and make them into good players but now the same strategy is being criticised as going after time wasters. I am sure that if you go back and look , for every Richards, Mattner, Kennedy, McGlynn and Mumford there is at least two or three others that didnt do anything with us.

I dont think anyone realistically expected us to suddenly climb back into the four , but two preseason games should also not be seen as the barometer of our fortunes.

[Ralph Dawg]

I dont think anyone realistically expected us to suddenly climb back into the four , but two preseason games should also not be seen as the barometer of our fortunes.

True, we shouldn't write off the season based on 2 trials. BUT:

The trials seem to be a continuation of what was wrong last year, namely:
1) Struggle with clearances and subsequent attacking inside 50s. There still is an over reliance on JPK and essentially if you can tag him out of the contest, we struggle.
2) Lack of cohesion and precision. Our mids struggle for time and space to hit a forward on the lead.
3) Too many repeat defensive inside 50s. We flood back, hold on grimly, then eventually crack. When we get the ball in defence, struggle to find options up the ground.
4) After a lean season, as supporters we look for hope during trials. Imagine if Ollie had dominated Hopper et Al in the GWS game, McCartain had kicked a bag full, Dawson ripped open both games off HB with his left boot, Stephens and Blakey flying down a wing and delivering inside 50 with precision etc. The only thing from our younger brigade that sticks in my mind is Gould's bump! For me, the only thing about the trials that fills me with hope is that they were trials.

Sorry for sounding negative, I love my team and really hope they have a cracking 2020.

[bloodspirit]

Im not seeing via recruitment that we have provided ourselves with the greatest probability to be back in the top8 in 2020 nor 2021. The trajectory i am seeing is more then likely 3 years outside of the top8. That is not good enough for an AFL club and especially for the club i support. To many losses one, two and three years in row start to crush the aura of a culture like the Bloods. The players and opposition start to see our vulnerability.

Can the club hand on heart say they have provided us with the best chance or the greatest probability to be back in the Top8 in 2020 or Top4 by 2021 ?

First, the point needs to be made that most AFL clubs have to finish outside the top 8 every year. It doesn't necessarily mean you're a hopeless failure and need to go back to the drawing board.

Second, being in the top 8 is not the be all and end all. Winning flags is important too! And it is a different thing to aim to perennially make the top 8 compared to aiming to win a flag. More often on RWO we see people only valuing flags - a view I don't hold with. I think making finals and winning H&A matches is important too. But certainly winning flags is a hugely important and rebuilding towards a team capable of winning a flag is a well established strategy (that of course doesn't always work because only one team gets to win each year) and it's a strategy that takes time. It was particularly impressive that we managed to win a granny in 2012, 7 years after 2005 and only missed finals once in between times.

Hawthorn is often held up as the club to follow because of their flag threepeat. But since winning their threepeat they haven't done any better than us despite having supposedly the best coach in the business. They've done worse AND they're less advanced in terms of a rebuild and winning another flag, whether or not they are closer to playing finals. (In 2016 they lost in the semis and they haven't won a final since: in 2017 they missed finals altogether, in 2018 they went out in straight sets and last year they missed finals again. Meanwhile their senior players are aging and they're increasingly relying on thin draft talent to vouchsafe their future, although they have done some canny recruiting, picking up some elite but damaged players cheaply. Shrewd as those trades were I still don't know that I'd feel that much happier to have Scully and Patton and Scrimshaw compared to Florent and Rowbottom and Gould. And I'd rather have Blakey and Stephens et al compared to Worpel and they're more anonymous recent draft picks. In any event, they're two different but equally valid strategies.) In my view the club can "hand on heart say" they have done their best to give us the greatest chance of rising back up the ladder. Whether it happens according to your arbitrary cut-offs of top 8 this year and top 4 next year is not the point. Do you think the Hawks list managers need to start saying mea culpas if they fail to win a final again this year too? If not, is that because you disagree with my assessment, and you think the Hawks are closer to winning flags and finals in the seasons coming than we are?

[caj23]

First, the point needs to be made that most AFL clubs have to finish outside the top 8 every year. It doesn't necessarily mean you're a hopeless failure and need to go back to the drawing board.

Second, being in the top 8 is not the be all and end all. Winning flags is important too! And it is a different thing to aim to perennially make the top 8 compared to aiming to win a flag. More often on RWO we see people only valuing flags - a view I don't hold with. I think making finals and winning H&A matches is important too. But certainly winning flags is a hugely important and rebuilding towards a team capable of winning a flag is a well established strategy (that of course doesn't always work because only one team gets to win each year) and it's a strategy that takes time. It was particularly impressive that we managed to win a granny in 2012, 7 years after 2005 and only missed finals once in between times.

Hawthorn is often held up as the club to follow because of their flag threepeat. But since winning their threepeat they haven't done any better than us despite having supposedly the best coach in the business. They've done worse AND they're less advanced in terms of a rebuild and winning another flag, whether or not they are closer to playing finals. (In 2016 they lost in the semis and they haven't won a final since: in 2017 they missed finals altogether, in 2018 they went out in straight sets and last year they missed finals again. Meanwhile their senior players are aging and they're increasingly relying on thin draft talent to vouchsafe their future, although they have done some canny recruiting, picking up some elite but damaged players cheaply. Shrewd as those trades were I still don't know that I'd feel that much happier to have Scully and Patton and Scrimshaw compared to Florent and Rowbottom and Gould. And I'd rather have Blakey and Stephens et al compared to Worpel and they're more anonymous recent draft picks. In any event, they're two different but equally valid strategies.) In my view the club can "hand on heart say" they have done their best to give us the greatest chance of rising back up the ladder. Whether it happens according to your arbitrary cut-offs of top 8 this year and top 4 next year is not the point. Do you think the Hawks list managers need to start saying mea culpas if they fail to win a final again this year too? If not, is that because you disagree with my assessment, and you think the Hawks are closer to winning flags and finals in the seasons coming than we are?

Your comparisons to the Hawks are puzzling, one team took their opportunity and won 3 premierships in a row, whilst we squandered our chances and managed to win one seven seasons ago. I would fully expect Hawthorn to be in a worse position than us. I'm pretty sure most of us would be comfortable with a few years down the bottom of the table had we managed a three-peat, just as most Hawks supporters are.

[The Big Cat]

Your comparisons to the Hawks are puzzling, one team took their opportunity and won 3 premierships in a row, whilst we squandered our chances and managed to win one seven seasons ago.

We really had two flags in that time. The proceeds of crime is currently stored at the Whitten Oval!

[Blood Fever]

Your comparisons to the Hawks are puzzling, one team took their opportunity and won 3 premierships in a row, whilst we squandered our chances and managed to win one seven seasons ago. I would fully expect Hawthorn to be in a worse position than us. I'm pretty sure most of us would be comfortable with a few years down the bottom of the table had we managed a three-peat, just as most Hawks supporters are.

Beaten by West Coast in Perth in qualifying final in 2015- ended up playing Eagles in GF on their home ground. Delete at least one of the three.

[Auntie.Gerald]

First, the point needs to be made that most AFL clubs have to finish outside the top 8 every year. It doesn't necessarily mean you're a hopeless failure and need to go back to the drawing board.

Second, being in the top 8 is not the be all and end all.

In my view the club can "hand on heart say" they have done their best to give us the greatest chance of rising back up the ladder. Whether it happens according to your arbitrary cut-offs of top 8 this year and top 4 next year is not the point.

Interesting points BS

lots to cover so I will keep it to what I was talking about originally.

For me being in the top 8 not only gives you a chance at finals and a potential GF, but it ultimately justifies your strategy of list selection, recruitment, game plan, coaching staff etc etc........I think we have not given ourselves the best chance of making the top8 happen in 2020 and I dont think we have given ourselves the best chance of a top4 come 2021.

That can obviously change within and also from without ie a complimentary side by side strategy of serious trading in 2020........not sure what we would give up to make that happen? Other sides around the top8 may also suffer a big injury list which changes everything also.

Time will tell but that is my position for now. I am not convinced we have given ourselves the greatest probability of medium term success ie moving into top8 then top4 next few years.........I am prepared to have a period of development and we are on the same page there..........I personally feel it is not unfair to drawn a line in the sand on what i expect re trajectory of improvement and the speed that occurs at.

If you want to keep your trajectory of improvement open ended, that probably clashes in part with my summary and expectations

[crackedactor]

Im not counting on Buddy anymore...........thats like hoping your past star stock keeps your whole portfolio above index year after year. We need a better strategy for success then that !!!!

Ludwig I feel that what you are saying is only part of the truth and not the true reality of where we are at.

Im not comfortable with "progress" unless it is truly quantified and benchmarked vs the competition..........

I dont see a team that can win its own ball better then its opponent and that concerns me greatly when this was against a fellow bottom team. Against GWS it was bloody terrible and GWS had 6 rep midfielders not playing.

I dont see superior skills and nor cohesion vs a fellow bottom of the table team.........im not seeing a squad that is any better then bottom 5 on the ladder.

Worst of all we are primarily playing a style of football ie stack our backline to minimise blow outs by running into a wall of 18 players...... but that has a massive opportunity cost. Flooding your backline makes it very difficult to score and to breakaway from your opposition. We have seen teams in the AFL and especially Soccer, park the bus in their own half, then counter attack a few times a half. We saw this vs another bottom team on Monday where we had half the inside 50s.......that just doesnt give you the chance to dominate nor put score board pressure on.........without scoreboard pressure the opposition is in the game and take over.

Im not seeing via recruitment that we have provided ourselves with the greatest probability to be back in the top8 in 2020 nor 2021.

The trajectory i am seeing is more then likely 3 years outside of the top8. That is not good enough for an AFL club and especially for the club i support. To many losses one, two and three years in row start to crush the aura of a culture like the Bloods. The players and opposition start to see our vulnerability.

Can the club hand on heart say they have provided us with the best chance or the greatest probability to be back in the Top8 in 2020 or Top4 by 2021 ?

No i dont think they can because the development of our youth strategy plus unwanted players the last three seasons we traded in or got for free is a high risk strategy.

A side by side strategy is crucial in the AFL......if we cant get a couple of key players traded in Nov 2020 we are in seriously deep water and maybe bouncing between the bottom 5 or so teams for an extended amount of time.

Most people will find this amusing,, but I. Thought I would mention it for the record. Luke Parker was interviewed on SEN radio and when asked is it the Swans ambition to play finals football, he said a big NO! It's our ambition to win the Premiership this year! I confessed I did laugh when I heard it.


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[stevoswan]

Most people will find this amusing,, but I. Thought I would mention it for the record. Luke Parker was interviewed on SEN radio and when asked is it the Swans ambition to play finals football, he said a big NO! It's our ambition to win the Premiership this year! I confessed I did laugh when I heard it.

Gotta aim high!

[Blood Fever]

Gotta aim high!

Aim high and allow for gravity!