2020 trading, drafting and list management: players and personnel

[Ludwig]

I think there will be list size cuts, but it will be over a period of several years. Maybe none or just one this year.

Cutting players is tough in the year of Covid, made difficult by the lack of a reserves competition and injuries to a number of younger and developing players. There may have to be cuts to players who haven't had much or any opportunity to show what they could do at AFL level (thinking Reynolds, Rowles and Knoll). Maibaum looks a likely cut, not getting a go this year after just surviving last year. Add a Naismith retirement and that would make 5. It really gets difficult for me after that, as I think Clarke and Thurlow might well survive, based on decent performances in recent weeks.

I think 5 cuts may just be enough. I can see us taking 3 in the draft and recruiting 1, which would easily be the smallest turnover in memory. If we have a big name recruit, like Daniher, maybe Papley will have to be traded.

I wouldn't be too quick to cut an injured developing player, e.g. Stoddart or Ronke, if it's just to open a place on our list for a draftee taken after Gulden.

Pending the outcome of the AFL investigation, Elijah Taylor could be subject to dismissal for cause. I don't want to prejudge the case while it's still being investigated.

[Markwebbos]

2 more games for these players to show what they’ve got. Particularly Amartey and Knoll.

[Thunder Shaker]

Before we think about who we can bring in, we need to consider who is leaving/being delisted. There has been some speculation that list sizes will be reduced to 40 including rookies. We are currently at 46.

Cutting the list size to 40 is not something the AFL should be doing without clear rules in place to handle situations where a club has a spate of injuries.

This week, West Coast had 16 players unavailable. North Melbourne also had 16 on their injury list a couple of weeks ago. That's about one-third of their lists unavailable. That meant the clubs had about 30 players from which they could pick a starting 22, plus 3 emergencies. Sydney had a similar problem where most tall players were injured.

Now imagine the playing list is cut to 40, and one-third of those players are injured (13). That would leave 27 fit players from which 22 + 3 emergencies are chosen. Just two players would be omitted. If the run of injuries was just a bit worse, clubs would be struggling to pick 22 fit players and three emergencies. A club in such a position would be one bad playing surface away from not being able to field a team.

Therefore, if the AFL reduces list sizes, the AFL must have clear rules to cover bad runs with injury. Would a club be able to list or recruit top-up players? Would there be an expanded rookie list? How would players not selected to play maintain match fitness? What would second tier competitions look like? How would clubs develop fringe players?

[SwanSand]

Some good players from other teams may be preferred over the ones suggested for delisting given the list size reductions. And these players from other teams are likely to come as Rookies.
I guess .... delist Ryley Stoddart and then revisit if there are no good players out there for the rookie contract.

Would certainly keep Clarke - Even though his disposals are poor they are probably better than last year. He is a good 2 way runner and good tackler. Good for us to have on the team for specific roles and also to make sure we remain competitive for another 1 - 2 years. However his contract should be yearly.
Dont know how Barry O'Connor is doing? And if he would be able to secure another rookie contract?
Ben Ronke delisting will depend on Tom Papley. If Tom Papley stays - Ben Ronke could be delisted, if not then he stays on the list. He is only young, has speed and is known to have a goal sense. Only problem is his ability to put himself in the right spot time and time again. I guess many small forwards struggle with positioning and are expecting the ball to come their way and then when it doesnt, they look stupid. So the question is whether there has been any improvement in his performance in the eyes of the coach or not.

Would not mind looking at Viney or Brayshaw if their feet are OK ! Both in good age group and have good skills. The problem with Melbourne is poor coaching and not personnel. When I watch Melbourne play I think there is no clear plan or strategy by the coaches or else there are extremely poor players on their list with big heads (I doubt that). Paul Roos did a good job getting the team ready for a final assault but since then they have lost their way by poor coaching.

Lets try and get Harry Perryman from GWS. Perfect Age group, Good skills, from NSW, midfield who kicks goals. I think he will be a great addition to our club.

[waswan]

I'm surprised a few people are down on Dylan Stephens. He has shown a lot from my perspective. Its his first year and he has played quite a few games with some of them showing his attributes.

Not down on it as he has shown enough but even KB would have to be concerned by not picking Serong, nearly a regular 20 touches after 5 games and from memory a Swans supporter too.

The top pick this year has to be a ball winner mid and not a player we would pick 10 spots ahead of everyone else.

[Markwebbos]

Not down on it as he has shown enough but even KB would have to be concerned by not picking Serong, nearly a regular 20 touches after 5 games and from memory a Swans supporter too.

The top pick this year has to be a ball winner mid and not a player we would pick 10 spots ahead of everyone else.

My theory is they didn’t pick Serong because he was too similar to the academy two this year.

We’ve made a few “left field” selections in the past including Rowbottom, JMac and McCartin, which have turned out ok

[waswan]

My thinking was the Academy duo too
Hopefully they are played as mids when we get them.

[Ludwig]

Not down on it as he has shown enough but even KB would have to be concerned by not picking Serong, nearly a regular 20 touches after 5 games and from memory a Swans supporter too.

The top pick this year has to be a ball winner mid and not a player we would pick 10 spots ahead of everyone else.

Serong and Sam Flanders must have been in serious consideration for our pick 5. Stephens wasn't on my radar at the time, but in retrospect, he certainly deserved to be in contention. Perhaps it was that Serong played mostly (or at least a lot) as a small forward, and we were looking more for a pure midfielder. Freo saw him as a midfielder and he's been fantastic for a first year player starting in the midfield.

Warner was a targeted player that we thought would be available later in the draft, and he was the one we saw filling the contested ball winning inside mid role. We continue to go for speed and skill as top requirements for our draftees. Our quicker ball movement this year is already evident and our transformation to a running game style is well underway.

Serong doing well doesn't mean that Stephens wasn't a good choice, or is a reflection of a difference in potential. I wouldn't be surprised if Serong, Flanders and Stephens all become very good footballers. In fact, the top end of the 2019 draft looks very strong at this stage and likely to produce a host of Grade A players.

[The Runner]

Winning the rising star is not always an indication of becoming a success. Particularly at Freo (Rhys Palmer). Stephens is 2 years away from being judged against Serong adequately. I still like the selection.

Selection for the final 2 games will be a good insight in to the thinking of the committee on future contracts.
The success of Wicks as a tackling machine - 4.5 per game already. Parker is 5th in the comp and going at 5.3.. means Ronke is probably done now.

It would be strange to delist both Amartey and Knoll unless we have a clear plan in the ruck division at the trade table.

I'm surprised they have not persisted with Ling after his first few games. Thought he showed enough to be hopeful about as a small defender who can use the footy well. Hope he's not delisted.

[Ludwig]

My theory is they didn’t pick Serong because he was too similar to the academy two this year.

We’ve made a few “left field” selections in the past including Rowbottom, JMac and McCartin, which have turned out ok

Similarities to Campbell and Gulden, as you say, was a likely consideration in passing on Serong.

I don't think any of Rowbottom, JMac or McCartin were left field selections. They all went pretty close to projections. All are looking like bargains now. I think it says something about the quality of our recruiters. That's one of the reasons that I'm not too fast to pull the 'delist' trigger on our ND selections. We have a very good hit rate.

It's worth noting that Jake Lloyd didn't play a senior game in his 1st year and George Hewett didn't get a senior game until his 3rd year with the club. I just shows that we shouldn't rush to judgment on our draftees. A lot of improvement comes through our player development program.

[Blood Fever]

Similarities to Campbell and Gulden, as you say, was a likely consideration in passing on Serong.

I don't think any of Rowbottom, JMac or McCartin were left field selections. They all went pretty close to projections. All are looking like bargains now. I think it says something about the quality of our recruiters. That's one of the reasons that I'm not too fast to pull the 'delist' trigger on our ND selections. We have a very good hit rate.

It's worth noting that Jake Lloyd didn't play a senior game in his 1st year and George Hewett didn't get a senior game until his 3rd year with the club. I just shows that we shouldn't rush to judgment on our draftees. A lot of improvement comes through our player development program.

Agree on this. Bit of premature panicking going on. Patience and faith required with young group. Can only wait and see how it pans out.

[TheBloods]

Curious when everyone's patience and faith will run out ? Wait and see has been the motto for a few yrs now with Florent, Hayward , Aliir , HewettDawson, and none have become stars yet. Even Mills would barely be considered a star now in his fifth year. All good players but none reached the level we'd have hoped them to reach when they started out promising kids

[707]

One would have to assume that the AFLPA who hold the whip hand with a CBA won't agree to much in the way of cuts, if any given the revelations of this week.

In 2003 the AFL had 100 employees in non field roles, this year it's around 800 and a real boys club too say disgruntled insiders! We know that the AFL has flagged significant cuts but my feeling is the ALFPA will show the players have already sacrificed significantly this year so shouldn't be expected to make more sacrifices if things are back to normal in 2021.

Current lists are 38-40 plus 4-6 rookies for a total list of 44 PLUS up to two Cat B rookies. The rumoured 40+2 I asume will be 38-40+2-4 for a total just two less than this year. You would assume Cat B will stay and be in addition to encourage left field recruiting which we and HQ are keen on. So just two less spots, therefore fairly normal delistings I would reckon.

[Ludwig]

While I'm in the giving examples mode, I thought I would mention Jordan Dawson. Like Ling, he had a slow start because of injuries. He didn't play a senior game in his 1st year, had a single 10 possession game in his second and 4 games in his 3rd year. There were lots of doubters. Then last year he becomes the kicking revelation of the AFL and now is a walk up starter for the club.

We don't want to be discarding players like Jordan Dawson just because they don't make a big impression early on. He was a big possession winner in the NEAFL and a good tackler as well. He didn't bring the big possession numbers to AFL level, but maybe that will come as well, in due course.

Ling has made a very strong impression at the club despite his battle with injuries, and I don't see him being even a chance for delisting.

Those who have followed the NEAFL games know that Stoddart has been a solid and consistent performer in his 1st 2 seasons. Only injury stopped him form continuing his progress this year. I know others may differ, but I rate Stoddart ahead of both Clarke and Thurlow.

[Ludwig]

Curious when everyone's patience and faith will run out ? Wait and see has been the motto for a few yrs now with Florent, Hayward , Aliir , HewettDawson, and none have become stars yet. Even Mills would barely be considered a star now in his fifth year. All good players but none reached the level we'd have hoped them to reach when they started out promising kids

The expectation was that Mills would be a star. He did win the rising star award. He's been a great defender for us. Maybe if he plays midfield on a regular basis he will reach that Star status.

I think Aliir and Dawson, as 3rd round picks have exceeded expectations, and Hewett, a pick 32, has done very well with top 7 finishes in the B & F the last 2 years.

Florent and Hayward haven't reached the level which might have been expected, but they are improving although lacking consistency. There should be a lot of upside for both players.

I don't know what the threshold is for being deemed a Star. The salary cap effectively limits the number of stars a club will likely have. It's probably more important to have a team filled with good consistent players and a few stars, than one with lot of stars, but a lot of dud players as well.

In any case, I'm not sure what you are suggesting. You named 6 players who haven't met your expectations. Should we trade them all and start over again in the hope that the next half dozen lot will turn out better than the first?