2020 trading, drafting and list management: players and personnel

[barry]

I was thinking Hanners was one. Mitchel was father-son so slightly compromised draft pick.

[Ludwig]

There will be many reviews of our season that will show lots of holes in our side. Data driven analyses, like Champion Data, will show that we had an ineffective midfield. This is not a matter of much debate. The question is what will be done about it?

I'll start with a possible best 22 starting side next year. There will be variations, but I don't think that's critical to this analysis, because it's more about who is not in the side that who is in the side.

Rampe, McCartin, Melican
Fox, Lloyd, Cunningham
Mills, Stephens, Blakey
JPK, Hewett, Parker
Rowbottom, Florent, McInerney
Heeney, Aliir, Dawson
Papley, Franklin, Hayward
Ruckman

Here's a partial list of players not included in above:

Experienced players not in best 22 (feel free to substitute any of these players for ones I have in the above side):
Reid, Brand, Thurlow
O'Riordan, Clarke, Taylor, Ronke

Inexperienced players:
Amartey, McLean, Gould, O'Connor
Ling, Stoddart, Wicks, Warner, Foot, Bell, Campbell, Gulden

Are our best 22 really that bad? Is it reasonable to expect players like Stephens, McInerney, Blakey and Rowbottom to improve?

And what about all those players not in the best 22? If we're in the running for finals, probably players from the experienced list will get first crack at replacing injured players over the season. What about the development and opportunities for those 12 players I've put into the inexperienced category?

Despite the criticism of our midfield, it appears to be a difficult midfield to break into. The number of players deserving of a chance at AFL levels exceeds in the worst estimates of injuries. Do we need more midfield prospects to join the competition for spots.

AB Swannie mentioned Chad Warner. I agree. What about Chad Warner. How many bodies does he have to crawl over to get an honest shot at a spot in our midfield?

What would adding an experienced player like Brad Crouch do for Warner's chances of getting selected?
What would adding Constable, or Will Brodie do to provide opportunities to the players already on our list?
Would drafting a player like Will Phillips do anything more than add another talented prospect to a list laden with talented prospects?

Is this list good enough to move up the ladder? And if not, what can we do about it?

There were a lot of rhetorical questions there, meant to give thought to whether we need to make dramatic changes to what has already been done with our list building. Do we need a rebuild on the rebuild, or do we go, for the most part, with those players we already have on our list?

We can make a tweak here and there, as well as target players where we have deficiencies, particularly in the ruck and key forward, but it's hard to see us doing a North Melbourne. I believe Longmire, Parker and Kennedy when they say they are confident that our young list can move the Swans forward significantly in the coming years.

[Ajax]

There will be many reviews of our season that will show lots of holes in our side. Data driven analyses, like Champion Data, will show that we had an ineffective midfield. This is not a matter of much debate. The question is what will be done about it?

I'll start with a possible best 22 starting side next year. There will be variations, but I don't think that's critical to this analysis, because it's more about who is not in the side that who is in the side.

Rampe, McCartin, Melican
Fox, Lloyd, Cunningham
Mills, Stephens, Blakey
JPK, Hewett, Parker
Rowbottom, Florent, McInerney
Heeney, Aliir, Dawson
Papley, Franklin, Hayward
Ruckman

Here's a partial list of players not included in above:

Experienced players not in best 22 (feel free to substitute any of these players for ones I have in the above side):
Reid, Brand, Thurlow
O'Riordan, Clarke, Taylor, Ronke

Inexperienced players:
Amartey, McLean, Gould, O'Connor
Ling, Stoddart, Wicks, Warner, Foot, Bell, Campbell, Gulden

Are our best 22 really that bad? Is it reasonable to expect players like Stephens, McInerney, Blakey and Rowbottom to improve?

And what about all those players not in the best 22? If we're in the running for finals, probably players from the experienced list will get first crack at replacing injured players over the season. What about the development and opportunities for those 12 players I've put into the inexperienced category?

Despite the criticism of our midfield, it appears to be a difficult midfield to break into. The number of players deserving of a chance at AFL levels exceeds in the worst estimates of injuries. Do we need more midfield prospects to join the competition for spots.

AB Swannie mentioned Chad Warner. I agree. What about Chad Warner. How many bodies does he have to crawl over to get an honest shot at a spot in our midfield?

What would adding an experienced player like Brad Crouch do for Warner's chances of getting selected?
What would adding Constable, or Will Brodie do to provide opportunities to the players already on our list?
Would drafting a player like Will Phillips do anything more than add another talented prospect to a list laden with talented prospects?

Is this list good enough to move up the ladder? And if not, what can we do about it?

There were a lot of rhetorical questions there, meant to give thought to whether we need to make dramatic changes to what has already been done with our list building. Do we need a rebuild on the rebuild, or do we go, for the most part, with those players we already have on our list?

We can make a tweak here and there, as well as target players where we have deficiencies, particularly in the ruck and key forward, but it's hard to see us doing a North Melbourne. I believe Longmire, Parker and Kennedy when they say they are confident that our young list can move the Swans forward significantly in the coming years.

This is a great analysis Ludwig. You'd have to think that if all these players were fit and playing/developing well and we managed to add say Ben Brown and a ruckman then finals wouldn't be too far off.

[SwanSand]

One aspect is having the best 22 with decent skills. The second aspect is to have a back of 8 - 10 very good role players to be a successful team. We dont need all the backups to be amazing but atleast 3-5 should be AFL grade and ready to step up.
If the best 22 can get us there quickly, then the lack of skills or very young backups will hurt our chances.

With that best 21 without Ruckman, we probably struggle because of 4 things
1. Lack of Ruckman
2. Stoppages and clearances work (We are very good for counter punch but not so much for stoppages and clearances and with new plan off halfback run - we are even better)
3. Unknown factor with certain players in the best 22. Question marks over the ability of some players especially for 4 long quarters of footy. Fox got thoroughly beaten by Dangerfield in the last game, Florent fleeting, Kennedy slowing etc
4. Gelling of game plan and Personnel

Out of the backups only 1 - 2 of the experienced are good enough and again fleet a lot. If we are hoping that the younger ones will come through, for them to get the experience as backup and be confident to perform on the AFL stage it may take 3 - 4 years. There are always exceptions but the reality is that if the Best 22 are fit they younger ones are not going to get any experience.

So the answer is yes we dont need to make a lot of changes but we need to push the 22 so that they continue to get better and the only way it can happen is if there is pressure from the backups.

[stevoswan]

Pick 3 for anything but an All Australian is Overs...... granted id like Tom Green too but as a straight swap its overs

You have to ask what are we getting with Tom that we couldnt get with a Top mid this year.....
4 or 5 games experience, no thanks

But think about it this way, if Green was in this years draft and available at pick three....the club would take him in an instant and 4-5 games experience is better than no experience. He's sort of proved himself already....the kid is a gun! However, with Campbell and Gulden on their way in, we don't need him/can't fit him in.....so it's a moot point.

[Melbourne_Blood]

2020 trading, drafting and list management: players and personnel

But think about it this way, if Green was in this years draft and available at pick three....the club would take him in an instant and 4-5 games experience is better than no experience. He's sort of proved himself already....the kid is a gun! However, with Campbell and Gulden on their way in, we don't need him/can't fit him in.....so it's a moot point.

I’m sure we could fit him in, and I reckon a player like that would compliment some of the smaller mids we have on the list or coming in the draft. Anyway we ain’t getting him so you’re right, moot point.


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[707]

More skill needed so adding Campbell and Gulden, both elite by foot, immediately improves ball movement.

Having too many mids for spots must improve the overall talent base with the lesser ones dropping off the roster, just keep improving the overall quality.

Happy with whoever the recruiters decide with pick 3, regardless of type.

[Aaron]

There will be many reviews of our season that will show lots of holes in our side. Data driven analyses, like Champion Data, will show that we had an ineffective midfield. This is not a matter of much debate. The question is what will be done about it?

I'll start with a possible best 22 starting side next year. There will be variations, but I don't think that's critical to this analysis, because it's more about who is not in the side that who is in the side.

Rampe, McCartin, Melican
Fox, Lloyd, Cunningham
Mills, Stephens, Blakey
JPK, Hewett, Parker
Rowbottom, Florent, McInerney
Heeney, Aliir, Dawson
Papley, Franklin, Hayward
Ruckman

Here's a partial list of players not included in above:

Experienced players not in best 22 (feel free to substitute any of these players for ones I have in the above side):
Reid, Brand, Thurlow
O'Riordan, Clarke, Taylor, Ronke

Inexperienced players:
Amartey, McLean, Gould, O'Connor
Ling, Stoddart, Wicks, Warner, Foot, Bell, Campbell, Gulden

Are our best 22 really that bad? Is it reasonable to expect players like Stephens, McInerney, Blakey and Rowbottom to improve?

And what about all those players not in the best 22? If we're in the running for finals, probably players from the experienced list will get first crack at replacing injured players over the season. What about the development and opportunities for those 12 players I've put into the inexperienced category?

Despite the criticism of our midfield, it appears to be a difficult midfield to break into. The number of players deserving of a chance at AFL levels exceeds in the worst estimates of injuries. Do we need more midfield prospects to join the competition for spots.

AB Swannie mentioned Chad Warner. I agree. What about Chad Warner. How many bodies does he have to crawl over to get an honest shot at a spot in our midfield?

What would adding an experienced player like Brad Crouch do for Warner's chances of getting selected?
What would adding Constable, or Will Brodie do to provide opportunities to the players already on our list?
Would drafting a player like Will Phillips do anything more than add another talented prospect to a list laden with talented prospects?

Is this list good enough to move up the ladder? And if not, what can we do about it?

There were a lot of rhetorical questions there, meant to give thought to whether we need to make dramatic changes to what has already been done with our list building. Do we need a rebuild on the rebuild, or do we go, for the most part, with those players we already have on our list?

We can make a tweak here and there, as well as target players where we have deficiencies, particularly in the ruck and key forward, but it's hard to see us doing a North Melbourne. I believe Longmire, Parker and Kennedy when they say they are confident that our young list can move the Swans forward significantly in the coming years.

We all know your stand against ruckman but still surprise why Sinclair is not in any of your 3 lists of players.

[Syd76]

Forgotten player alert ???? - Chad Warner, pick 39 in 2019 draft. Strong bodied, inside mid. Due to zero NEAFL has been given no chance to show wares.

He was given a few games to prove he is capable. I hate to say it but he looked lost in his 3 or 4 games. Hopefully he will come good as he is only young.

[Ludwig]

We all know your stand against ruckman but still surprise why Sinclair is not in any of your 3 lists of players.

I just put in the position name 'Ruckman' instead of putting in Sinclair or whoever we pick up in a trade, which sounds a bit long-winded. How we handle the ruck stocks situation I felt was separate and apart from the central issues of the post. My displeasure concerning ruckmen is more to do with how we have handled the position in recent years, rather than any given ruckman. I actually like Sinclair as the kind of ruckman we should have, particularly in the matter of his versatility, but would prefer someone a bit more effective in the ruck contests as our primary ruckman. He's also getting toward the end of his career.

[AB Swannie]

He was given a few games to prove he is capable. I hate to say it but he looked lost in his 3 or 4 games. Hopefully he will come good as he is only young.

Agreed that he looked lost as a small forward. That’s not what he was drafted for. Give him a chance in a season where people can actually train as a group and play actual reserve games.

[Blood Fever]

Agreed that he looked lost as a small forward. That’s not what he was drafted for. Give him a chance in a season where people can actually train as a group and play actual reserve games.

Early days

[Nico]

Am I missing something? Is Tom Green on the market after one season?

[MattW]

There will be many reviews of our season that will show lots of holes in our side. Data driven analyses, like Champion Data, will show that we had an ineffective midfield. This is not a matter of much debate. The question is what will be done about it?

I'll start with a possible best 22 starting side next year. There will be variations, but I don't think that's critical to this analysis, because it's more about who is not in the side that who is in the side.

Rampe, McCartin, Melican
Fox, Lloyd, Cunningham
Mills, Stephens, Blakey
JPK, Hewett, Parker
Rowbottom, Florent, McInerney
Heeney, Aliir, Dawson
Papley, Franklin, Hayward
Ruckman

Here's a partial list of players not included in above:

Experienced players not in best 22 (feel free to substitute any of these players for ones I have in the above side):
Reid, Brand, Thurlow
O'Riordan, Clarke, Taylor, Ronke

Inexperienced players:
Amartey, McLean, Gould, O'Connor
Ling, Stoddart, Wicks, Warner, Foot, Bell, Campbell, Gulden

Are our best 22 really that bad? Is it reasonable to expect players like Stephens, McInerney, Blakey and Rowbottom to improve?

And what about all those players not in the best 22? If we're in the running for finals, probably players from the experienced list will get first crack at replacing injured players over the season. What about the development and opportunities for those 12 players I've put into the inexperienced category?

Despite the criticism of our midfield, it appears to be a difficult midfield to break into. The number of players deserving of a chance at AFL levels exceeds in the worst estimates of injuries. Do we need more midfield prospects to join the competition for spots.

AB Swannie mentioned Chad Warner. I agree. What about Chad Warner. How many bodies does he have to crawl over to get an honest shot at a spot in our midfield?

What would adding an experienced player like Brad Crouch do for Warner's chances of getting selected?
What would adding Constable, or Will Brodie do to provide opportunities to the players already on our list?
Would drafting a player like Will Phillips do anything more than add another talented prospect to a list laden with talented prospects?

Is this list good enough to move up the ladder? And if not, what can we do about it?

There were a lot of rhetorical questions there, meant to give thought to whether we need to make dramatic changes to what has already been done with our list building. Do we need a rebuild on the rebuild, or do we go, for the most part, with those players we already have on our list?

We can make a tweak here and there, as well as target players where we have deficiencies, particularly in the ruck and key forward, but it's hard to see us doing a North Melbourne. I believe Longmire, Parker and Kennedy when they say they are confident that our young list can move the Swans forward significantly in the coming years.

Helpful.

I think that best 21 is finals-quality. In answer to your question, I’m very confident that Rowbottom, Blakey, Stephens and McInerney will leap again next year. Those four are ambitious competitors, who hit their stride this season, and key members of our next finals-winning team.

Florent is really the only one of that team I worry about - we really need a development leap from him. Fox is limited, but I’m not too worried about him in bigger games.

But when you put it like that, our experienced depth is mediocre. Sure, you can make an argument about most having the capacity to play a role, but none of them are starting in a successful side. A large part of our issue over the last couple of years is an over-reliance on that mediocre depth.

Campbell and Gulden aside, it’s conceivable we miss with all of those young players. Wicks is a competitor, but needs to keep developing. Gould, Ling and Warner seem the most likely to emerge, but none assured.

- - - Updated - - -

He was given a few games to prove he is capable. I hate to say it but he looked lost in his 3 or 4 games. Hopefully he will come good as he is only young.

Needs to play in the middle when he comes in. A season in the VFL will help.

[Ludwig]

But when you put it like that, our experienced depth is mediocre. Sure, you can make an argument about most having the capacity to play a role, but none of them are starting in a successful side. A large part of our issue over the last couple of years is an over-reliance on that mediocre depth.

Campbell and Gulden aside, it’s conceivable we miss with all of those young players. Wicks is a competitor, but needs to keep developing. Gould, Ling and Warner seem the most likely to emerge, but none assured.

I agree that our experienced depth is mediocre, but yet can play well enough at AFL level. I find these players sitting just outside the best 22 are roughly of the same caliber that you would find on teams playing finals. We usually don't find too many stars not playing regular senior footy regardless of club.

Let's say that 5 developing players, Gould, Ling, Warner, Campbell and Gulden become good players deserving of being in the senior side. We are only losing JPK and Buddy to retirement in the next few years, so 2 out and 5 in makes for positive result, at least as far as numbers go. There's no replacing a Buddy Franklin. so no point in even discussing it. We just have to do the best we can with a replacement key forward and move on.

I can't predict the future, but looking at our list, I think it's the kind of list that should bring some real improvement to the performance of the Swans in the coming years, even with mediocre results in player development, such as only 5 out of 12 developing players actually go on to become solid best 22 players. Like any typical fan, I'm going to have a positive outlook on the playing group until shown otherwise. I'm hoping that my bias hasn't become Carltonesque.