2020 trading, drafting and list management: players and personnel

[Ludwig]

FYI, im still dark on the muppet that offered what we did for Danniher too......same incompetence this year with Alir worries me

I don't think a formal offer was ever made. There was talk about 2 first rounders, one of which to come from trading Papley to Carton, but as I've conjectured before, it may have all been a smokescreen to prevent Papley from leaving. So, on the contrary, it may have been a very astute bit of bluffing and keeping things in limbo until it was too late to do any damage.

[Thunder Shaker]

AA is not going to ... Pick 29 will turn into pick 35/36 with NGA's and F/S. There is a snowflake's chance in hell that KB would do that

Later picks will improve in value. It balances out.

A hypothetical situation to illustrate this (because I was bored):

Here is a list of the players tied to clubs via father/son or Academy, along with their ranking via AFL Draft Central Power Rankings - November Top 20:

#1 Jamarra Ugle-Hagan - Western Bulldogs Academy
#8 Braeden Campbell - Sydney Swans Academy
#9 Lachlan Jones - Port Adelaide Academy
#18 Reef McInnes - Collingwood Academy
#20 Errol Gulden - Sydney Swans Academy
#28 Brandon Walker - Fremantle Academy
#30 Joel Western - Fremantle Academy

Also includes:
#12 Alex Davies - Gold Coast Academy - can be pre-listed by the Suns
#26 Joel Jeffrey - Gold Coast Academy - can be pre-listed by the Suns

Current draft picks for clubs with Academy players:

Western Bulldogs - 14, 41, 54, 90
Sydney Swans - 3, 25, 58, 62, 82
Port Adelaide - 29, 35, 47, 57, 59, 95
Collingwood - 16, 39, 42, 75, 92
Fremantle - 12, 32, 55

Hypothetical trades:

* Western Bulldogs trade pick 14 (1161 points) to Adelaide for picks 33, 40 and 56 (1186 points).
* Western Bulldogs trade their future second-round pick to West Coast for pick 34 (542 points).
* Sydney Swans trade pick 27 (703 points) from Gold Coast for a future second-round pick (Gold Coast may only need one draft pick this year because they can pre-list Davies and Jeffrey).

Hypothetical draft:

* #1 Jamarra Ugle-Hagan - Western Bulldogs match with 33, 34, 40, 41, 54 and 56 (incurring a 40-point deficit). Picks between 1 and 32 inclusive shift down the draft one place. Picks between 35 and 39 inclusive are promoted one place, and so on. Our picks become 4, 26, 28, 52 and 56 (the second-round picks are demoted by one place, the later picks are promoted by five places).
* We draft someone at pick 4, perhaps Thilthorpe (though it doesn't matter for the sake of exposition here).
* #8 Braeden Campbell - Sydney Swans match with 26, 28 (1406 points). Pick 28 becomes pick 59. Sydney Swans picks are now 50, 54 and 59.

If Gulden was drafted at pick 20 with those picks, we would incur a deficit of about 100 points. But other clubs also have prospects to match in the draft:

* #9 Lachlan Jones - Port Adelaide match with 30, 33. Pick 30 slides down the draft to pick 72 (19 points). Our picks are promoted to 48, 52, 57.
* #18 Reef McInnes - Collingwood match with 33, 34. Pick 34 goes down to pick 47. Our picks are promoted to 46, 51, 56. The first two picks were originally picks 58 and 62 and have been promoted about 12 places because many picks before them have been extinguished.
* #20 Errol Gulden - Sydney Swans match with picks 46, 51 and 56. Pick 56 becomes 69.

The actual mechanics of pick matching may differ a bit from this hypothetical scenario. I find it amusing how pick 33 got used up multiple times to match bids, this is possible.

[Thunder Shaker]

Yes, I have probably messed up the pick movements a bit in my previous comment, as it is very complicated. However, two things are clear from my example: (1) pick 27 as hypothetically traded from the Suns only moved down the draft one place, as only one NGA player was drafted before we had to use that pick on a hypothetical bid on Campbell, and (2) the value of the later picks will improve significantly because many picks before them will be removed in the mechanics of pick matching. I also expect the Dodo to use Essendon's consecutive draft picks to wreak a little mischief.

[Nico]

I also was listening to AA's manager being interviewed today on trade radio. So I guess we have to decide whether to take the gamble to hang onto him and hope that we can re-sign him, or go into the lottery of FA which means that we may be get less for him next year if we cannot convince him to stay.

Managers get way too much air time. These people are the ones gaming the system to keep getting a roll over commission for their players.

[AB Swannie]

I'm a bit torn about AA. At his best, he is as good as Nick Haynes was this year in the intercept defender role. But then there are those times where my heart is in my mouth as he drops the simple chest mark or disposes the ball like an amateur. I have often wondered if the bad moments are as a result of no consistency in his selection or position?

Overall, if he's at the stage he wants to go, it might be best to part company but only for appropriate compensation.

I agree with this. I have written a few times how I think Aliir is overrated and not in our best back 6. However, I do agree that he has a lot of value.

To be honest, I am getting a little annoyed with the current generation of players who want to dictate where they will play in a team. The age of entitlement is definitely here if a player can demand to be played as an intercept defender and if he is not, he is being mismanaged by the coach. "He's a confidence player and Longmire has shattered that confidence by playing him in all these other positions." Give me a player like Mills or Cunningham or Fox who will run through brick walls for their teammates playing in any position that is needed.

[MattW]

Those quotes from Allir's manager make it sound like his head has been turned. I actually think a pick in the 20s is decent value given he's probably not best 22 and he has a year left on his contract. But surely we'll only trade if it helps us get a ruckman and there should be no way pick 29 is used in any trade for Hickey.

[Mel_C]

I'm not a fan of players dictating where they want to play. You have to do what's best for the team.

[Nico]

The reason managers play this "one year to end of contract until he is a FA" game is because they get their commission one year early. On this basis Allir is gonsky, all over red rover.

[Markwebbos]

Something fishy is going on, AA claims he wants to play as a full-time back. And his manager says he had a "difficult year" being played all over the place. As a result he wants to be traded to Port who like his versatility, which includes playing him in the ruck.

[MattW]

Something fishy is going on, AA claims he wants to play as a full-time back. And his manager says he had a "difficult year" being played all over the place. As a result he wants to be traded to Port who like his versatility, which includes playing him in the ruck.

I think the fishiness is that Aliir wants to go and his manager is trying to make the case. However, the Papley situation last year demonstrates we're happy to stare that sort of thing down unless it suits us.

[ugg]

The AFL website article says Port are offering a three year contract with an option for a fourth. I think that would be the main reason he’s had his head turned.

[Ludwig]

Managers get way too much air time. These people are the ones gaming the system to keep getting a roll over commission for their players.

These managers deserve to get air time exactly because of what you say. They are the ones who have taken control of the system, so they have become the ones with the most information. It's for us to sort out what is propaganda and what is factual.

I agree with this. I have written a few times how I think Aliir is overrated and not in our best back 6. However, I do agree that he has a lot of value.

To be honest, I am getting a little annoyed with the current generation of players who want to dictate where they will play in a team. The age of entitlement is definitely here if a player can demand to be played as an intercept defender and if he is not, he is being mismanaged by the coach. "He's a confidence player and Longmire has shattered that confidence by playing him in all these other positions." Give me a player like Mills or Cunningham or Fox who will run through brick walls for their teammates playing in any position that is needed.

Something fishy is going on, AA claims he wants to play as a full-time back. And his manager says he had a "difficult year" being played all over the place. As a result he wants to be traded to Port who like his versatility, which includes playing him in the ruck.

I don't think we should attribute too much of this chatter to Aliir himself, but rather to Paul Connor, who's creating a story line to extract the biggest contract for Aliir and biggest commission for himself. It's true that Aliir's value decreases when he plays away from his best position, because he looks pretty ordinary. With free agency on the horizon for him, of course he should want to play in a position the enhances his value the most.

If you're an accountant, but your boss has you cleaning the toilets, you wouldn't think it was helping your career development.

[i'm-uninformed2]

I suspect the Swans will play this like Papley last year.

Unless we get what we want from the trade, a ruckman, then forget it.

Then back ourselves to get Hickey, return Aliir to defence where he likes and is best to play, and sort an appropriate contract.

[andy0414]

How about Hickey and Brander for pick 29

[Markwebbos]

How about Hickey and Brander for pick 29

I'd take that