2020 trading, drafting and list management: players and personnel

[Blood Fever]

Yep, Jack also allured JD might also be disappointed that we didn't push hard enough to get the trade done and so he's desire to join us might've now waned. Nevertheless Jack's take of our draft strategy with JD is in strike contrast with the many other so called footy experts who claimed it was a failure or embarrassment we didn't get the trade done.

Lot of fake news in the Melbourne footy media.

[TheBloods]

I think you guys are undererrating Hewett and underestimating his value to the team. He finished 2nd, I repeat 2nd, in our B&F last year. He fits the exact age and experience profile we need. He's learned to play alongside his teammates and they have built a synergy. He may also be less expensive than some of his flashier teammates. I suspect that he's still building his confidence as a leader and that once he develops a bit more in that space he could be part of our leadership group and drive the honest Bloods ethos.

No chance he's going anywhere if the club has a say.

I am a Hewett fan, but I think that a midfielder who averages 21 disposals and performs run-with roles finished second in our B&F says more about the performance of our overall team last year than it does about Hewett. On the one hand you think his value is under-estimated to the team, but on the other hand you say he would be less expensive than his team-mates. His salary essentially reflects his value to the club. If he's really so valuable, who is to say he won't think we're low-balling him and walk out the door like Mitchell?

[bloodspirit]

It's early days but I'm casting my eye ahead a little bit to the turnover of players that will come at the end of the season. I think we will turnover at least 6 players. It could be less - I think there is a requirement that you draft a minimum of three players? But realistically it's likely to be at least 6. I think it might be less than it has been in other recent years because we have such a promising, young list now.

I started turning my mind to who could be in the firing line, but then I looked back at the post that started this thread and saw that I have already given my views about that. I'm curious if anyone has any different views. Or even if you agree. Or, quite possibly you just think it's a stupid conversation to have at this time of year. I see that perspective but I bet our list managers are thinking about it already. And if it's soon enough for them, it's soon enough for me. Obviously an opinion given now is subject to what happens over the course of the season, and a lot could change.

Does anyone think there is any chance Buddy will retire? I don't see it happening, barring severe injury, and I think we will want him to go on given (a) he's so talented; and (b) we will have to count his salary in our cap anyway (even if we wouldn't actually have to pay him).

[TheBloods]

Those I think won't make it: Bell, Amartey, Clarke, Thurlow.

Those I think will have to pull a proverbial rabbit out of the hat at some point this year: Maibaum, Ronke, Stoddart, O'Riordan, Fox, Melican.

Ling probably has a bit more wiggle room as a first-rounder and popular figure at the club.

[Mr Magoo]

Those I think won't make it: Bell, Amartey, Clarke, Thurlow.

Those I think will have to pull a proverbial rabbit out of the hat at some point this year: Maibaum, Ronke, Stoddart, O'Riordan, Fox, Melican.

Ling probably has a bit more wiggle room as a first-rounder and popular figure at the club.

Why do you think Bell? I would have thought Stoddart is under more pressure to show something than Bell. Other than a few glimpses early one season a few years ago really hasnt done a lot since.

[stevoswan]

Perhaps we are waiting to see his performance in 2020. As it stands right now, he is very much a replaceable member of the best 22. The coaching staff may be waiting to see if he takes that next step and becomes on par with Kennedy and Parker, which has been the hope with Hewett all along.

Perhaps he is waiting to see how the team performs in 2020 before making any decisions.

[SeanM]

I think it will depend on position as well. Last year the three rookie rucks got re-signed early. Whilst someone like Hirst was unlikely when we signed Gray, Taylor, Papley stayed and Gulden/Campbell looked good in the futures games.

I can see Clarke being re-signed because he can play as a inside mid with decent running ability.

[TheBloods]

Why do you think Bell? I would have thought Stoddart is under more pressure to show something than Bell. Other than a few glimpses early one season a few years ago really hasnt done a lot since.

They were drafted the same year weren't they? So I'm not sure why Stoddart would be under any more pressure than Bell. Stoddart made the NEAFL Team of the Year last year, while Bell's trajectory looks similar to Jordan Foote.

[Mr Magoo]

I don’t see enough neafl to know stoddarts effectiveness at that level but just basing it on who has been given the greater opportunities at Afl level .

You still haven’t explained why bell is under pressure - comparing to Foote is not an explanation .

Don’t get me wrong I’m not a fan of bell and actually didn’t think he was that effective when I did watch him but just interested in your view

[Ralph Dawg]

I don’t see enough neafl to know stoddarts effectiveness at that level but just basing it on who has been given the greater opportunities at Afl level .

You still haven’t explained why bell is under pressure - comparing to Foote is not an explanation .

Don’t get me wrong I’m not a fan of bell and actually didn’t think he was that effective when I did watch him but just interested in your view

As a regular NEAFL viewer, I feel Stoddart is more effective than Bell. His distribution and run off half back / wing is excellent at the lower level and he can also bob up in the forward line to kick the odd goal.

Bell gives it his all and as a NSW and proud indigenous boy, he is a great role model but I just feel his skill level and overall polish is still behind comparable team mates.

[TheBloods]

I don’t see enough neafl to know stoddarts effectiveness at that level but just basing it on who has been given the greater opportunities at Afl level .

You still haven’t explained why bell is under pressure - comparing to Foote is not an explanation .

Don’t get me wrong I’m not a fan of bell and actually didn’t think he was that effective when I did watch him but just interested in your view

Bell is under pressure because he reminds me of Foote's few senior games. Just did not look up to it. It took Bell over a season and a half to produce the kind of form that would warrant a senior appearance. Stoddart produced it within two months of his first year, and then again last year, meaning the coaches must see something in him.

[dejavoodoo44]

I don’t see enough neafl to know stoddarts effectiveness at that level but just basing it on who has been given the greater opportunities at Afl level .

You still haven’t explained why bell is under pressure - comparing to Foote is not an explanation .

Don’t get me wrong I’m not a fan of bell and actually didn’t think he was that effective when I did watch him but just interested in your view

I tend to think that both have the potential to make it, but I wouldn't be be shocked if one or both didn't.

With Stoddart, he was constantly among our best in the NEAFL: to the extent that I was quite surprised that he didn't transfer that form to the AFL, in his couple of opportunities. He is an excellent rebounder; with aggressive, elusive running and a long, accurate kick. He will also throw his slim body into contests. It would be handy if he added a bit more bulk, but not entirely necessary, if he plays as an outside running back. His downfall might be if he only gets limited game time, behind all our other rebounders: Cunningham, Dawson, Ling, Lloyd, O'Riordan, etc.

With Bell, his effort was impressive last year, when he was playing as an inside mid. Plenty of putting his body on the line and hard tackling. However, his body may be more suited to an outside role and was probably only playing inside, because of a lack of other options. Outside, he has pace and elusiveness, but his kick accuracy and decision making can let him down. However, I think he's a late convert to the game, so there should be a realistic chance of improving his skills. Of course, his downfall could be if he can't make the necessary improvements and he ends up in the no mans land, of not quite bulky enough for the inside, but not quite skilful enough for the outside.

[SeanM]

I think it would take a few games for Stoddart to get used to playing as a half back flanker at AFL level. NEAFL seems more unstructured, you don't get punished for your disposal mistakes as much and there would be more of an encouragement to take attacking risks. But it might be hard to get an opportunity if he has Cunningham, CoR and Gould ahead of him for backline position. And a few players ahead of him for wing positions.

One of Bell strengths is being able to make a late run into space in the attacking 50. So I can see him as a winger/half forward who plays his role and can scrap for contested ball but is able to get free in open space. Then try to play a few AFL games a seasons and gradually improve his ball winning ability and disposal.

Generally with our players we have had a lot of late draft picks. So I think sometimes we pick raw players with higher potential upside and are patient with their development. From the 2018 draft I recall Mcinerney and Reynolds being seen as quite raw and mainly playing school football. From last years draft probably only Rowles was seen as raw, having a great leap and running ability but needing to work on his endurance and other aspects of his game.

[bloodspirit]

Only ourselves to blame for midfield blues.
Traded away Mitchel, and failure to negotiate with GWS for a extra draft pick a few months ago. Plenty of others, but these are symptomatic of ideology driven trading and retention over practical realities.

Considering the academy picks we've had, we would be on par with other clubs.

I mostly agree with you, barry. We don't appear to have done enough to shore up our midfield in the short term (which would have been medium term a couple of seasons ago), especially through trade.

I don't agree about failing to negotiate with GWS for that extra pick - there is nothing to suggest we had that opportunity. GWS was always going to prefer to get pick 4 from the Crows than pick 5 from us. The Crows were just at the right spot and we weren't. If we had held pick 4, then we might have got a deal done. BTW, was interesting watching episode 3 of Melbourne FC's 'To Hell and Back'. Apparently they rated Luke Jackson as the second best player in the draft and Tom Green at 3. There was a real risk they could have bid on him. They were tossing up between the two of them and (the doco makes it appear) they went with Jackson because he was a better fit for their needs given their depth of inside mids. I still wouldn't have minded if we had bidded on (or gotten) Tom Green ahead of Dylan Stephens. I guess the reasons we didn't are (1) we felt that Stephens, as a balanced inside-outside midfielder was a better fit for our needs; and (2) to a lesser degree, we wanted Stephens to feel like he was wanted and not a second choice option.

Looking forward, we are going to get a couple of players who can play through the midfield in Gulden and Campbell, and possibly this has been a factor in our choosing not to prioritise bolstering our midfield more in the short term. In fairness, we have done ok at looking after our midfield at the draft (Rowbottom and McInerney in 2018 and then Stephens and Warner last year).

It's at the trade table where it feels like we maybe could have done more. I think we could have looked at a player like Hugh Greenwood as an interim measure (I think he might be 27 or 28 already). I agree with those suggesting we target some of the surplus mid-stock that GWS have, especially since they are already located in Sydney. Hately was born in Canberra and played for Central Districts in South Australia before he was drafted and so hopefully would come with a limited go-home factor. Caldwell is regarded as the more talented of the two. Encouragingly Caldwell is from Vic Country and played for Bendigo Pioneers, so maybe less go-home factor than a Vic Metro boy. I wonder if he's mates with either Dyl Stephens or Brady Rowles? Caldwell got 2 games last year whereas Hately got 7 and is considerably bigger than Caldwell (190 cm v 183 cm). Hately played together with Gould at National Champs in 2018 and so they might be mates. The other inside mid GWS drafted also in 2018, Xavier O'Halloran was from Vic Metro and so perhaps is more likely to accept an approach from a Melbourne club.

I think GWS will be keen to hang on to Hately given his Canberra connection but surely there is no way they can hang on to everyone given the list they have and the lengths they will have to go to to re-sign Cameron and Williams after already signing up Coniglio, Whitfield and Kelly. Also you'd think we'd have to give up a pretty decent pick to get Hately. They paid pick 14 for him in 2018. Depending on where we finish on the ladder this season, we may have the currency.

[barry]

I mostly agree with you, barry. We don't appear to have done enough to shore up our midfield in the short term (which would have been medium term a couple of seasons ago), especially through trade.

I don't agree about failing to negotiate with GWS for that extra pick - there is nothing to suggest we had that opportunity. GWS was always going to prefer to get pick 4 from the Crows than pick 5 from us. The Crows were just at the right spot and we weren't. If we had held pick 4, then we might have got a deal done. BTW, was interesting watching episode 3 of Melbourne FC's 'To Hell and Back'. Apparently they rated Luke Jackson as the second best player in the draft and Tom Green at 3. There was a real risk they could have bid on him. They were tossing up between the two of them and (the doco makes it appear) they went with Jackson because he was a better fit for their needs given their depth of inside mids. I still wouldn't have minded if we had bidded on (or gotten) Tom Green ahead of Dylan Stephens. I guess the reasons we didn't are (1) we felt that Stephens, as a balanced inside-outside midfielder was a better fit for our needs; and (2) to a lesser degree, we wanted Stephens to feel like he was wanted and not a second choice option.

You may be right that GWS werent interesting in trading picks with us, but to be honest I think pick 5 would have been enough to deliver them Green and the other first round pick.
Why GWS didnt sound us out (if they didnt) could be a culmination of some historical animosity between the two clubs. But again, you reap what you sow.
Was the ideological animosity costly in the end?
Why cant we prise away any of these young midfield guns from GWS? They dont even have to move house to join us.