2020 trading, drafting and list management: players and personnel

[707]

I'll start a seperate post for this blurb or the previous one will get too long winded.

We currently hold point bearing picks 4, 23, 54, 56. To use all them we need to have no more than 36 on our main list in the lead up to the draft when the picks are finally confirmed by the AFL.

Our next pick is 77 but it isn't worth points yet, the last point bearing pick is 72.

In the lead up to the draft every clubs picks will get pushed out by the dreaded FA Compo Pick, the more decent FA that move, the more compo picks created, the further back that pushes your picks, the less points they are worth.

Of danger to us is Brad Crouch getting big $ at another club and Crows getting Pick 2 compo, all our picks go out one including critically our pick 4 we'd be hoping to use before a Campbell bid. The other danger to our subsequent picks is a big contract for likely departures from GWS of Cameron and/or Williams getting first round or start of second round Compo Picks.

We will however be advantaged by the use of multiple (2-3) picks for JUH, Campbell, Jones (climbing the draft boards for Port), McInnes (Pies) and some second round matchings, hopefully Gulden here. These will elevate later picks which is why we'll delist sufficient players to get pick 77 activated as it's likely to move up to points bearing range which would assist in paying for Gulden and maybe preventing a 2021 deficit.

The elephant in the room at present is what will be the figure for list sizes in 2021, currently 40 which means we have to get down to maximum 35 but if it's 38 as has been rumoured in the press then we need to get down to 33 maximum. You can do your own list of 33 but remember that a number of players who could be on shaky ground will be saved by holding a 2021 contract, like Sam Gray

Intriguing stuff all this, we await to hear the list size announcement.

[Nico]

Heard that Crouch may only be a Round 3 compo pick.

[Colin Hounsell]

“The elephant in the room at present is what will be the figure for list sizes in 2021, currently 40 which means we have to get down to maximum 35 but if it's 38 as has been rumoured in the press then we need to get down to 33 maximum. You can do your own list of 33 but remember that a number of players who could be on shaky ground will be saved by holding a 2021 contract, “

If that’s the case. And the footy wire post on contract due dates is up to date.

Reckon we may end up cutting: Ronke, Brand, E Taylor, Thurlow, Stoddart, Ling from the main list

Draft 3 players in

And cut Maibaum, Amartey, Rowles, Knoll from the rookies.

Don’t ask me to do the math though

I’ll bet they wish they could retire or trade some of Naismith, Gray, L Taylor. ORiordan instead.

[Markwebbos]

Port just let six go. Reckon it’s going to be brutal

[707]

Port just let six go. Reckon it’s going to be brutal

They'll come thick and fast now, often there is a first batch, then a later batch. Port's early announcement did surprise me though.

Footywire is often wrong, Only drafted last year on the standard two year contract so E. Taylor has a 2021 contract - at this stage!

Longmire spoke glowingly of Amartey pre debut so he might be staying?

[Ludwig]

I don't see the need to have a turnover of more than 5 players. We will draft Campbell and Guiden, and pick up a couple of KPPs in either the draft, trade or FA. That's only 4. Beyond that, I don't see the point of delisting a player just to replace him with some late draft pick.

My delistings so far would be E. Taylor, Reynolds, Rowles, Maibaum and Knoll. There will probably be another one, but I wouldn't mind keeping the rest of our list at this point.

There may be some shuffling between the senior list and the rookie list, if the AFL continues to separate the lists. We may even take another Cat B rookie if it doesn't impact list sizes limits.

I can't see any of Ling, Stoddart, Ronke or Brand delisted, but there are always a couple of surprises. I think Foot showed enough to stay on. Clarke and Thurlow have also played well enough to keep a spot on the list, although I did have them atop the delistings only a couple of months ago.

[Nico]

I don't think Ronke has done enough to keep his spot.

[rb4x]

I don't see the need to have a turnover of more than 5 players. We will draft Campbell and Guiden, and pick up a couple of KPPs in either the draft, trade or FA. That's only 4. Beyond that, I don't see the point of delisting a player just to replace him with some late draft pick.

My delistings so far would be E. Taylor, Reynolds, Rowles, Maibaum and Knoll. There will probably be another one, but I wouldn't mind keeping the rest of our list at this point.

There may be some shuffling between the senior list and the rookie list, if the AFL continues to separate the lists. We may even take another Cat B rookie if it doesn't impact list sizes limits.

I can't see any of Ling, Stoddart, Ronke or Brand delisted, but there are always a couple of surprises. I think Foot showed enough to stay on. Clarke and Thurlow have also played well enough to keep a spot on the list, although I did have them atop the delistings only a couple of months ago.

Hi Ludwig
I agree that we do not need to delist more than five players if list sizes stay the same but they need to be players on the senior list. Of your five only E Taylor is on the senior list and he has a contract. Apart from the shenanigans of delisting and re rookie-ing none of the others will count. Ronke, Stoddart, Brand, and Ling are all in danger and more if list sizes are reduced. I would think the rookies Reynolds, Maibaum, Rowles and at least one of Amartey or McLean are gone as well. Knoll may just survive due to our dire ruck situation but I would not be surprised if he is also gone. Foot will also be nervous. The Sam's, Gray, Reid and Naismith are all fortunate in being contracted.

[Ludwig]

I don't think Ronke has done enough to keep his spot.

I agree that he hasn't helped his cause for the better part of the past 2 seasons and there is some chance that he will be delisted. With all the youth on our list, I don't see the advantage of delisting someone like Ronke, who might well regain the form he showed in 2018, with a late draft pick.

I think it will be very difficult for a newly drafted player who needs a few years of development to get much of a go at the Swans in the next couple of years. We just have too many good prospects on our list already, and will be adding a few more this draft. Opportunities won't arise and it will likely just be a wasted draft pick. Better to keep the player already on the list in these circumstances.

[Ludwig]

Hi Ludwig
I agree that we do not need to delist more than five players if list sizes stay the same but they need to be players on the senior list. Of your five only E Taylor is on the senior list and he has a contract.

Taylor has been sacked, basically a termination for cause, which I'm certain is in his contract.

There's no problem with with moving a few players from the senior list to the rookie list if we need to satisfy the AFL category rules. Clarke, Thurlow, Stoddart and Ronke can all be moved to the rookie list. It's even been done with contracted players. Naismith and Gray can be moved to the rookie list as well if we are desperate.

There are a few AFL administration regulations that seem to easy to accommodate by technical fixes. In another kind of business it would be called cooking the books. But the AFL seems to allow clubs to work these things out if they are not too abusive. Very much like the rules of the game, there's room left for interpretation if AFLHQ think it's best for the what they want to achieve.

[barracuda]

“The elephant in the room at present is what will be the figure for list sizes in 2021, currently 40 which means we have to get down to maximum 35 but if it's 38 as has been rumoured in the press then we need to get down to 33 maximum. You can do your own list of 33 but remember that a number of players who could be on shaky ground will be saved by holding a 2021 contract, “

If that’s the case. And the footy wire post on contract due dates is up to date.

Reckon we may end up cutting: Ronke, Brand, E Taylor, Thurlow, Stoddart, Ling from the main list

Draft 3 players in

And cut Maibaum, Amartey, Rowles, Knoll from the rookies.

Don’t ask me to do the math though

I’ll bet they wish they could retire or trade some of Naismith, Gray, L Taylor. ORiordan instead.

I saw an interview on twitter with a Tla player agent this morning who said they (AFL and Union) are closing in on a list size including cat A rookies of 42 for 2020. Given the current size is 44 (38 + 6) this is only a cut of 2.

[barracuda]

Taylor has been sacked, basically a termination for cause, which I'm certain is in his contract.

There's no problem with with moving a few players from the senior list to the rookie list if we need to satisfy the AFL category rules. Clarke, Thurlow, Stoddart and Ronke can all be moved to the rookie list. It's even been done with contracted players. Naismith and Gray can be moved to the rookie list as well if we are desperate.

There are a few AFL administration regulations that seem to easy to accommodate by technical fixes. In another kind of business it would be called cooking the books. But the AFL seems to allow clubs to work these things out if they are not too abusive. Very much like the rules of the game, there's room left for interpretation if AFLHQ think it's best for the what they want to achieve.

I agree, I think the swans along with all the other clubs would be looking for ways to address contracted players who looked ok before covid but with reduced lists don't offer much. For example Sam Grey would be the type of player the swans would like to pay out, and at the same time free up a list spot. The AFL may simply say the swans are at fault for bad drafting. Pre covid grey looked like cheap insurance, but it is clear he doesn't have the grunt for senior footy anymore.

[Markwebbos]

There have been a few contracted players deciding to “retire” in recent years, which has always felt extremely dodgy to me. But not at the Swans with the exception of Tippo who was genuinely forced to retire!

[Captain]

My list changes would be:

Delist: Knoll, E Taylor, Reynolds, Ling, Stoddart, Rowles, Maibaum
Rookie list: Naismith

Assume we draft in Daniher and trade Reid (though keep Reid if we can't trade Daniher).

Best 22 looks like:

Papley Daniher Wicks
Hayward Buddy Blakey
Florent Heeney Rowbottom
Lloyd Rampe Dawson
Cunningham McCartin Fox
Naismith Parker Mills
Aliir Stephens JPK McInerney
E: Melican Hewett O'Riordan Thurlow

If Buddy or Daniher go down, McCartin to play forward and Melican to come in.

Solid team but we are lacking in the ruck department and desperately need to trade one in and ideally draft one.

[707]

I saw an interview on twitter with a Tla player agent this morning who said they (AFL and Union) are closing in on a list size including cat A rookies of 42 for 2020. Given the current size is 44 (38 + 6) this is only a cut of 2.

Good, I thought the AFLPA, correctly for once, would play hard on this one. Save the money by big cuts at the bloated AFLHQ not by cutting the people who are on the ground!

Down two is a non event really