2021 trading, drafting and list management: players and personnel

[Steve]

Wilmot might be the one we’re targeting - would make sense with being happy to slide back a few picks and be confident he’d still be available.

We have a history (successfully) going after those very young ones, and there wouldn’t be any pressure to step up straight away as we have plenty of youngsters queuing up already.

Goater may be a reasonable Plan B - it is a worry his highlight reel shows how ordinary a kick he is, but like Josh Dunkley you can probably get away with it if surrounded by good ball users which we now have.

[rb4x]

Yep, Cyril the draft tamperer.

Had a small smile seeing the player mentioned for Essendon in this list when you mentioned Cyril the draft tamperer. I recollect that James Davies announced that he was only going to play for Essendon before the draft. They duly drafted him and then found that his opnion of his ability greatly exceeded his actual ability. Could not have happened to a more deserving club.

[Ruck'n'Roll]

Fans can be hard taskmasters- from memory the concussions started relatively early.

I suspect the expectations on being the #1 draft pick must be just about the highest in recruiting, certanly more the #2 - and probably more than the sons of champrion fathers.

Pessimism is a prerequisite for Saints fans.....I wouldn't give their views too much credence.

They only got included by the VFL to act as everyone's whipping boy, and that's the way it's pretty much stayed

[Ruck'n'Roll]

i could forgive them for not getting the Towers one right if the years before and after were better

Actually, and this isn’t to talk up Towers, not many.
The 2012 draft was generally a stinker even at the top end: 2012 AFL draft - Wikipedia
The only two players picked after him, who weren’t father-sons or rookie elevations, who’ve had substantially better careers were McIntosh and …. Tim Membrey.

and .... Jake Lloyd and .... Dane Rampe.

So not only was Towers not really all that big of a bust, taken overall we pretty much shot the lights out of the 2012 draft, doing much BETTER than anyone else.

[i'm-uninformed2]

and .... Jake Lloyd and .... Dane Rampe.

So not only was Towers not really all that big of a bust, taken overall we pretty much shot the lights out of the 2012 draft, doing much BETTER than anyone else.

Good point. Hell, imagine how good our rookie draft would have been that year if Naismith’s body held up

[Vonsteinman]

Had a small smile seeing the player mentioned for Essendon in this list when you mentioned Cyril the draft tamperer. I recollect that James Davies announced that he was only going to play for Essendon before the draft. They duly drafted him and then found that his opnion of his ability greatly exceeded his actual ability. Could not have happened to a more deserving club.

Bizarre take. How does a player’s opinion of his own ability influence where he’s taken in the draft?

[TheBloods]

and .... Jake Lloyd and .... Dane Rampe.

So not only was Towers not really all that big of a bust, taken overall we pretty much shot the lights out of the 2012 draft, doing much BETTER than anyone else.

Did i not say EARLY ROUNDS , thats 1st and 2nd , not rookie draft where KB is exceptional

[Maltopia]

Did i not say EARLY ROUNDS , thats 1st and 2nd , not rookie draft where KB is exceptional

Our first round picks (excluding recent as too early to tell) have been shocking.

Yes all clubs miss some, but put it this way.

Name a Swans first round pick in the last 15-16 years that would be first 22 elsewhere that wasn’t an academy player. McVeigh clearly, Jetta several years ago, Jones possibly and maybe Florent and Hayward. Is that it?

Certainly the last three would be at best, in the bottom 10 of the first 22 of most teams?

Now name any other club who has less than say six or seven first round picks over the same period, who would make our first 22 if not every AFL.

Look at Dorks: Roughead, Franklin and Jordan Lewis the year before? we took McVeigh.

Then add Xavier Ellis, Grant Birchall, Rioli, Schoenmakers, Isaac Smith, Ryan Burton (played 24 games for Port this year).

And they traded away all their first round picks in several years as well. Nearly all of these players would have been in the top ten of our list at the time?

I love our team, but I wonder if anyone would even notice our success with later round picks and rookies if we didn’t bomb so much in the first round.

Other teams have late draft pick and rookie success too (and some have made All Australian, won Brownlow etc, eg Andrew Gaff a fourth round pick, Tom Stewart etc), but there isn’t as much talk about those teams’ late and rookie drafting because they get many more first rounders right.

[TheBloods]

Our first round picks (excluding recent as too early to tell) have been shocking.

Yes all clubs miss some, but put it this way.

Name a Swans first round pick in the last 15-16 years that would be first 22 elsewhere that wasn’t an academy player. McVeigh clearly, Jetta several years ago, Jones possibly and maybe Florent and Hayward. Is that it?

Certainly the last three would be at best, in the bottom 10 of the first 22 of most teams?

Now name any other club who has less than say six or seven first round picks over the same period, who would make our first 22 if not every AFL.

Look at Dorks: Roughead, Franklin and Jordan Lewis the year before? we took McVeigh.

Then add Xavier Ellis, Grant Birchall, Rioli, Schoenmakers, Isaac Smith, Ryan Burton (played 24 games for Port this year).

And they traded away all their first round picks in several years as well. Nearly all of these players would have been in the top ten of our list at the time?

I love our team, but I wonder if anyone would even notice our success with later round picks and rookies if we didn’t bomb so much in the first round.

Other teams have late draft pick and rookie success too (and some have made All Australian, won Brownlow etc, eg Andrew Gaff a fourth round pick, Tom Stewart etc), but there isn’t as much talk about those teams’ late and rookie drafting because they get many more first rounders right.

No they wouldnt notice our later picks /rookies because we wouldnt have any success at all without them. No way we win the flag in 2012 without Jack , Grundy , Smith, Pyke, O'keefe, Malceski

The team we have now wouldnt come close either , without Lloyd , Papley, Rampe , Dawson this yr, Cunningham , Jmac

They get noticed because the majority of players who have made us successful have been from that range of late draft / rookies . & also bargain trades like Joey , Richards, Shaw, McGlynn , Mattner etc

We have got hardly any bang for our buck from picks inside the top 30 , nearly all have been busts or been traded out . Current list who do we have to show outside of the academy players ? Stephens , Florent & Hayward ? Wow .. thats impressive !

I'll add i am probably too hard on Gould who was a pick 26 , hasnt played a game yet so bit harsh to say hes a bust , cant make a judgment on him either way , we'll see this yr

[Ruck'n'Roll]

Did i not say EARLY ROUNDS , thats 1st and 2nd , not rookie draft where KB is exceptional

Yes you did. And then I asked who you thought should have been taken instead of Dean Towers. Do you remember your response?

[bloodspirit]

Our first round picks (excluding recent as too early to tell) have been shocking.

Yes all clubs miss some, but put it this way.

Name a Swans first round pick in the last 15-16 years that would be first 22 elsewhere that wasn’t an academy player. McVeigh clearly, Jetta several years ago, Jones possibly and maybe Florent and Hayward. Is that it?

Certainly the last three would be at best, in the bottom 10 of the first 22 of most teams?

Now name any other club who has less than say six or seven first round picks over the same period, who would make our first 22 if not every AFL.

Look at Dorks: Roughead, Franklin and Jordan Lewis the year before? we took McVeigh.

Then add Xavier Ellis, Grant Birchall, Rioli, Schoenmakers, Isaac Smith, Ryan Burton (played 24 games for Port this year).

And they traded away all their first round picks in several years as well. Nearly all of these players would have been in the top ten of our list at the time?

I love our team, but I wonder if anyone would even notice our success with later round picks and rookies if we didn’t bomb so much in the first round.

Other teams have late draft pick and rookie success too (and some have made All Australian, won Brownlow etc, eg Andrew Gaff a fourth round pick, Tom Stewart etc), but there isn’t as much talk about those teams’ late and rookie drafting because they get many more first rounders right.

Geelong.

Like us, they haven't had many high picks (like Roughed, Buddy etc.). Like us they also have an excellent record with late picks (although maybe nobody compares to us in the rookie draft).

Rohan is best 22 at Geelong.

[Aprilbr]

I think we have to look at the overall picture when assessing our draft/trading performance. These days they are all inter-connected. For example, trading in players from elsewhere means giving up something elsewhere, usually a pick. While first round picks have not been kind to us over the past decade (Ling for me hurts the most as he was a left-field selection that nobody else rated and due to injuries and lack of elite talent he never made it), we have more than compensated for it with a combination of canny trades, rookies, academy products and finding diamonds in the rough in selection from the 30s onwards.

If you were to ask a football analyst from elsewhere, I would think most would say that our list-building ability rates up there with the best 6 or so teams over time. Our recruiting team are also highly rated as evidenced by efforts in the past to poach Beatson and others from us (I seem to recall one of our recruiters ended up at Carlton a few years back?). Most would also say that we currently have one of the best young lists in the AFL. Our challenge is to hang onto them.

[liz]

Other teams have late draft pick and rookie success too (and some have made All Australian, won Brownlow etc, eg Andrew Gaff a fourth round pick, Tom Stewart etc), but there isn’t as much talk about those teams’ late and rookie drafting because they get many more first rounders right.

They have - and indeed, no club would draft players with 3rd, 4th round onto rookie draft picks if they didn't think they had much chance of finding good players with those picks.

But Gaff is an odd choice to use as an illustration. He was a pick 4 - not a 4th round pick.

[Thunder Shaker]

I love our team, but I wonder if anyone would even notice our success with later round picks and rookies if we didn’t bomb so much in the first round.

To be fair though, most of the first round picks themselves haven't been early first-round picks.

2020: 4, 5 (Academy).
2019: 5.
2018: 10 (Academy).
2017: 14.
2016: 11, 21 (end of first round).
2015: 3 (Academy).
2014: 18 (Academy).
2013: 15.
2012: 22.
2011: 21 (Father-son).
2010: 21.
2009: 6, 14.
2008: 12.
2007: 11.
2006: 15.
2005: nil.
2004: nil.
2003: 16.
2002: 5.
2001: nil.

That's about as far back as I want to go, as that roughly covers the careers of all current players in the AFL. It should be clear from this list that we have had very few non-Academy draft picks 10 or earlier, a total of four in 20 seasons. If we include the Academy players, that number increases to seven. By comparison, Geelong has had five in 20 years.

The draft busts in the first round have all been with later picks, earliest was pick 11 (2007, Veszpremi, 11 games).

In a typical draft, there's a couple of outstanding prospects, and several excellent players. These players are usually all gone by pick 10. At that point, the draft becomes more speculative. This is reflected in the points value of each pick, where pick 1 is 3000 points, picks 2 to 4 are over 2000 points, and picks 5 to 8 are over 1500 points.

A rough rule of thumb (that I've just made up but is not too inaccurate) is divide the points by 10 for the number of games that player should play on average. So a pick 1 should play 300 games on average, a pick 10 should play 139 games on average, and so on. A draft bust would be a number of games significantly less than this average, perhaps 50%.

[Markwebbos]

There is an article on Zero Hanger looking at how well top ten picks taken between 2000-2015 have performed.

The success rate of top 10 draft picks - AFL News - Zero Hanger

Some of them, particularly 6 have performed terribly (pick 6s average only 95 games and have only one B&F between all of them)

I think people have unrealistic expectations when it comes to predicting success with the draft. Particularly with first rounders.

I’m crossing everything that this time next year we’ll be feeling a lot better about the two SA players we took in 2019.