2021 trading, drafting and list management: players and personnel

[bloodspirit]

Is all the excitement on here about Paddy Mac due to his former #1 status, his bonds to brother Tommy Mac, or something more substantial that people saw in his limited VFL games last year? Trying to understand what sits behind the buzz on here.

For me it's just a lot of upside for low cost - a bit like Jesse Hogan with the Giants. Yes, he is a #1 pick which shows he has character and talent. Also, he is a KPP who, it seems, can play forward or back - which is just what we need. Plus, he's the exactly right age and experience profile. Finally, we've spent a year thoroughly checking him out so it's not like we're casting away our list spot lightly. The fact that it helps bond us with the McCartins is a bonus.* All that said, Paddy's concussion history and his on-field act last year (and I can't help speculate that those two things might be connected) is a concern to me.

* This is not necessarily a bonus - could also be a problem if things go sour with Paddy - but I don't think it will be. Even if Paddy doesn't work out I think we'll communicate really clearly and hopefully maintain good relations.

[Roadrunner]

Dont care who we get just no more busts with our early picks please FFS

I’m with you TB but it seems like a numbers game- all clubs are playing the probabilities. Even established players can flop due to injuries, as we found with Tippett for example. Early picks should turn out better, but there are plenty of later picks that become top class but the odds do favour the early ones. KB and his team have done pretty well over the years hence we’ve been competitive. We just need a couple of excellent KP’s to complete the team and hope for no serious injuries- I’m thrilled with our squad and it can only get better!

[Thunder Shaker]

Dont care who we get just no more busts with our early picks please FFS

This year is the most difficult draft for many years due to limited game time for many of the draft prospects. We may find that more of the later first-rounders this year may be delisted without playing 10 games than several prior years.

2020 draft, first round (26 picks), no games: Elijah Hollands (GC, pick 7), Ryan Angwin (GWS, 18), Bailey Laurie (Melb, 22), Reef McInnes (Coll, 23), Blake Coleman (Bris, 24), Matthew Allison (StK, 26). All players are still on the club lists.
2019 draft, first round (22 picks), no games: Cooper Stephens (Geel, 16).
2018 draft, first round (23 picks), no games: Ely Smith (Bris, 21), Jez McLennan (GC, 23).
2017 draft, first round (19 picks), no games: nil.
2016 draft, first round (21 picks), no games: nil.
2015 draft, first round (23 picks), no games: nil.
2014 draft, first round (21 picks), no games: nil.
2013 draft, first round (20 picks), no games: nil.
2012 draft, first round (23 picks), no games: nil.

All current zero-game players are still on club lists.

In a few of these drafts every first-round pick managed 10 games or more but later drafts are less reliable.

The number of players in each year who didn't get to 10 games and have been delisted are: 2020: nil, 2019: nil, 2018: nil, 2017: 1 (Matthew Ling, Syd, pick 14, 3 games), 2016: nil, 2015: Kieran Lovell (Haw, pick 22, 2 games), 2014: nil, 2013: Nathan Freeman (Coll, pick 10, 2 games), 2012: Josh Simpson (Fre, pick 17, 2 games).

Considering that Sydney has had one of these four players, and this year's draft is harder to assess, your concerns about early draft busts are justified.

[Thunder Shaker]

The four clubs who have ‘doubled up’ their interest in top-20 draft hopeful Josh Goater
The four clubs are Essendon, Hawthorn, Sydney and GWS, with each club having two interviews or more.

Top 25 draft picks, these four clubs only: Essendon 11; GWS 2, 13; Hawthorn 5, 21; Sydney 16. GWS and Hawthorn won't take him with their early picks. Essendon and GWS may recruit him with their picks in the early teens, but if not Goater could be our pick.

[Markwebbos]

The four clubs who have ‘doubled up’ their interest in top-20 draft hopeful Josh Goater
The four clubs are Essendon, Hawthorn, Sydney and GWS, with each club having two interviews or more.

Top 25 draft picks, these four clubs only: Essendon 11; GWS 2, 13; Hawthorn 5, 21; Sydney 16. GWS and Hawthorn won't take him with their early picks. Essendon and GWS may recruit him with their picks in the early teens, but if not Goater could be our pick.

Classic KB misdirection!

[Ludwig]

Classic KB misdirection!

True. I remember that Horse went down to Melbourne the night before the draft to interview Jack Higgins and Laughlin Fogarty, but then decided to pick Matt Ling.

[Markwebbos]

I think we might have shot Matt Ling in the foot

[TheBloods]

This year is the most difficult draft for many years due to limited game time for many of the draft prospects. We may find that more of the later first-rounders this year may be delisted without playing 10 games than several prior years.

2020 draft, first round (26 picks), no games: Elijah Hollands (GC, pick 7), Ryan Angwin (GWS, 18), Bailey Laurie (Melb, 22), Reef McInnes (Coll, 23), Blake Coleman (Bris, 24), Matthew Allison (StK, 26). All players are still on the club lists.
2019 draft, first round (22 picks), no games: Cooper Stephens (Geel, 16).
2018 draft, first round (23 picks), no games: Ely Smith (Bris, 21), Jez McLennan (GC, 23).
2017 draft, first round (19 picks), no games: nil.
2016 draft, first round (21 picks), no games: nil.
2015 draft, first round (23 picks), no games: nil.
2014 draft, first round (21 picks), no games: nil.
2013 draft, first round (20 picks), no games: nil.
2012 draft, first round (23 picks), no games: nil.

All current zero-game players are still on club lists.

In a few of these drafts every first-round pick managed 10 games or more but later drafts are less reliable.

The number of players in each year who didn't get to 10 games and have been delisted are: 2020: nil, 2019: nil, 2018: nil, 2017: 1 (Matthew Ling, Syd, pick 14, 3 games), 2016: nil, 2015: Kieran Lovell (Haw, pick 22, 2 games), 2014: nil, 2013: Nathan Freeman (Coll, pick 10, 2 games), 2012: Josh Simpson (Fre, pick 17, 2 games).

Considering that Sydney has had one of these four players, and this year's draft is harder to assess, your concerns about early draft busts are justified.

Not just this year look at KBs past record in early rounds

D O'Keefe
Meredith
Veszpremi
L Johnston
Lamb
Towers
Ling
Rowbottom
Gould

Too many busts , Stephens and Florent might end up the same if they dont improve , even the ones who turned out ok ended up pissing off - Rohan , Jetta, Hewett , Mitchell, Jones

Kinnear is a great asset for our club , i said earlier he is behind the bulk of our last premiership team , but hes been pretty poor in the early rounds . Can you imagine the success we could 've had if he'd nailed more of them ??

[bloodspirit]

In Twomey and Sheahan's mock draft they have Sinn, Goater, Wilmot and van Rooyen go in the four picks we slipped back and then we bid on Josh Fahey before taking Tom Brown: Road to the Draft podcast: 2021 Mock Draft (afl.com.au). Ouch! That 4 pick slide could hurt. I would prefer any of those 4 and I haven't heard enough to get that excited about any of the names around the mark of our pick if it's not one of them. That said, Tom Brown doesn't look bad (Tom Brown Draft Profile - Aussie Rules Rookie Me Central (formerly AFL Draft Central)) but is not nearly the defensive equal of Wilmot. Might we consider Sonsie? Taylor? Roberts (appears set to slide)? Would we even consider Leek Alleer? I'd be open to this although a bit of a wild card pick. Doesn't appear he'll get through to our next pick. If we hadn't picked up McAndrew and Ladhams we might have considered Conway but we don't need him any more. If I have to guess and those first four names are gone, I won't be surprised if KB & co pick someone altogether different.

Just realised that if the draft were to play out as per this mock draft, Arlo Draper would still be available at our pick and I'd be happy with him based on his reviews. Arlo Draper Draft Profile - Aussie Rules Rookie Me Central (formerly AFL Arlo Draper Highlights | 2021 NAB AFL Draft prospect | AFL - YouTube Draft Central)

[liz]

Not just this year look at KBs past record in early rounds

D O'Keefe
Meredith
Veszpremi
L Johnston
Lamb
Towers
Ling
Rowbottom
Gould

Too many busts , Stephens and Florent might end up the same if they dont improve , even the ones who turned out ok ended up pissing off - Rohan , Jetta, Hewett , Mitchell, Jones

Kinnear is a great asset for our club , i said earlier he is behind the bulk of our last premiership team , but hes been pretty poor in the early rounds . Can you imagine the success we could 've had if he'd nailed more of them ??

DOK was recruited before Beatson's tenure at the club. I think he'd just started consulting the year that Veszpremi and Meredith were recruited but wasn't the final decision maker. I believe Vez, in particular, was a Maxfield call.

I agree the rest don't make for great reading, though if you look at who was taken after Towers in his draft year you'll see it was pretty slim pickings.

Including Rowbottom (and Florent as a potential) bust on the list shows unrealistic expectations. Both are clearly in the best 25 on the list in the view of the coaches (ie the ones that matter) - probably best 22 (certainly best 22 in Florent's case).

I do find it odd that a club can choose Lamb with its first pick and then land Parker twenty odd picks later. And Membrey late in the draft we took Towers. (Membrey being one of only a handful picked after Towers that has carved out a good career.) Maybe there's a temptation to "reach" too much for potential with those earliest picks, projecting forward and overlooking limitations, while caring less about limitations with those later picks and focusing just on what they are capable of.

[stevoswan]

Classic KB misdirection!

Is it? Maybe.....maybe not. Goater looks the goods to me, would be happy to get him.

[TheBloods]

DOK was recruited before Beatson's tenure at the club. I think he'd just started consulting the year that Veszpremi and Meredith were recruited but wasn't the final decision maker. I believe Vez, in particular, was a Maxfield call.

I agree the rest don't make for great reading, though if you look at who was taken after Towers in his draft year you'll see it was pretty slim pickings.

Including Rowbottom (and Florent as a potential) bust on the list shows unrealistic expectations. Both are clearly in the best 25 on the list in the view of the coaches (ie the ones that matter) - probably best 22 (certainly best 22 in Florent's case).

I do find it odd that a club can choose Lamb with its first pick and then land Parker twenty odd picks later. And Membrey late in the draft we took Towers. (Membrey being one of only a handful picked after Towers that has carved out a good career.) Maybe there's a temptation to "reach" too much for potential with those earliest picks, projecting forward and overlooking limitations, while caring less about limitations with those later picks and focusing just on what they are capable of.

Lamb was shocking , his attitude stunk . There was a 2k time trial years back where he underperformed , puked his guts out and got reamed by the coaches , then had a hissy fit because of it !! i could forgive them for not getting the Towers one right if the years before and after were better , but they clearly werent! One wrong decision here or there isnt too bad but when its year in in year out its a problem .

The way they are going Florent and Rowbottom will be out , if the expectation that a pick in the first 2 rounds will be good enough to be in the team for a decade is unrealistic then whats realistic ? We didnt draft these players to be VFL captains ! And what about the ones who left ? Money grub Mitchell , homesick Jetta and Jones .. did we do our research on them to find out what sort of blokes they were ?

[Markwebbos]

DOK was recruited before Beatson's tenure at the club. I think he'd just started consulting the year that Veszpremi and Meredith were recruited but wasn't the final decision maker. I believe Vez, in particular, was a Maxfield call.

I agree the rest don't make for great reading, though if you look at who was taken after Towers in his draft year you'll see it was pretty slim pickings.

Including Rowbottom (and Florent as a potential) bust on the list shows unrealistic expectations. Both are clearly in the best 25 on the list in the view of the coaches (ie the ones that matter) - probably best 22 (certainly best 22 in Florent's case).

I do find it odd that a club can choose Lamb with its first pick and then land Parker twenty odd picks later. And Membrey late in the draft we took Towers. (Membrey being one of only a handful picked after Towers that has carved out a good career.) Maybe there's a temptation to "reach" too much for potential with those earliest picks, projecting forward and overlooking limitations, while caring less about limitations with those later picks and focusing just on what they are capable of.

RB was ranked in the top ten from his draft year in the Herald Sun (link posted earlier in this thread)

- - - Updated - - -

Is it? Maybe.....maybe not. Goater looks the goods to me, would be happy to get him.

I thought the knock on the Goat was his disposal and his endurance. The latter might put us off perhaps?

[Thunder Shaker]

Classic KB misdirection!

Yes, I was thinking the same, even as I posted it. Still, if Goater happens to be available, would he be considered?

--

Here is a list of each clubs draft needs, according to SEN: What your club must target in the 2021 National Draft. Swans needs are given as a similar player to Dawson, an inside midfielder, and depth in the backline. Mentions recruiting Paddy McCartin in the PSD.

[Ludwig]

I thought the knock on the Goat was his disposal and his endurance. The latter might put us off perhaps?

Lamb not working out puts me off the Goat. But whatever Horse decides is fine by me.