2021 trading, drafting and list management: players and personnel

[liz]

OK its VERY early but I will go all out.

If McCartin senior has a full pre season and we draft him I expect him to play next year. And do well.

I don't think that's "going all out". The club has no business recruiting him unless they think he's capable of a strong pre-season (ie his body is up to it) and that he will be playing in the senior team from the start of the season. And playing well. He's 25 and with a strong junior pedigree.

So if they do recruit him, and he doesn't suffer an unfortunate injury, I too expect him to play (and I hope he'll play well). But standing close to his brother, not up the other end. (Unless we suffer a 2020-style injury decimation of our tall forwards.)

[Foreign Legion]

I don't think that's "going all out". The club has no business recruiting him unless they think he's capable of a strong pre-season (ie his body is up to it) and that he will be playing in the senior team from the start of the season. And playing well. He's 25 and with a strong junior pedigree.

So if they do recruit him, and he doesn't suffer an unfortunate injury, I too expect him to play (and I hope he'll play well). But standing close to his brother, not up the other end. (Unless we suffer a 2020-style injury decimation of our tall forwards.)

I meant Liz that he would be rated (by other club members) about a 10% chance of playing a game next year.

If drafted he will play seniors. He will be desperate and know he is on his last chance.

[COB]

I am one of those who isn't optimistic about Paddy McCartin but happy to be wrong. 35 games over 7 years and none since R16 2018 doesn't fill me with confidence. I would imagine another concussion would at best result in considerable time on the sidelines. Plus I am not convinced he has the necessary running capacity. I think there is a reason 17 other clubs have shown little or no interest in him. Don't mind giving him a rookie spot though given his obvious talent.

[Ludwig]

I know Paddy may be only 1 concussion away from retirement, but right now I've got the McCartin brothers, Rampe and Blakey in our starting backline for round 1, 2022. That's a formidable looking group.

I can't fit JPK, Fox or Stephens into our best 22. Sounds crazy, but I find better options. So they're depth players, but should see a lot of time.

I'm becoming overly optimistic about 2022. Makes me nervous. But I think we're looking very solid across the board.

[Ludwig]

Drat prediction:

25% of the all the players taken in the 1st round will be named Josh.

[The Big Cat]

I think it’s now a cert that PMcC will finish up on our list. He’s said he wants another go at AFL so not nominating for the draft means he’s been given assurances by Sydney and doesn’t want to risk being snaffled by another club. It also allows Sydney to get the best out of the drafts without worrying about where Paddy might be snapped up.

[TheBloods]

I know Paddy may be only 1 concussion away from retirement, but right now I've got the McCartin brothers, Rampe and Blakey in our starting backline for round 1, 2022. That's a formidable looking group.

I can't fit JPK, Fox or Stephens into our best 22. Sounds crazy, but I find better options. So they're depth players, but should see a lot of time.

I'm becoming overly optimistic about 2022. Makes me nervous. But I think we're looking very solid across the board.

You cant fit JPK into our best 22 ? Cmon , i know your a joker but that one aint funny

[Ludwig]

You cant fit JPK into our best 22 ? Cmon , i know your a joker but that one aint funny

It came down to JPK or Chad and I went with youth. Here are the names


Paddy and Tom McCartin Rampe
Harrry-C Lloyd Blakey
McInerney Florent Campbell
Parker Rowbottom Mills
Heeney Warner Gulden
Hayward McDonald Franklin
Papley Ladhams Wicks
Hickey

[TheBloods]

It came down to JPK or Chad and I went with youth. Here are the names


Paddy and Tom McCartin Rampe
Harrry-C Lloyd Blakey
McInerney Florent Campbell
Parker Rowbottom Mills
Heeney Warner Gulden
Hayward McDonald Franklin
Papley Ladhams Wicks
Hickey

No disrespect but you are mad if you think its between JPK and Chad , one is our captain the other our best rising mid

[Ludwig]

No disrespect but you are mad if you think its between JPK and Chad , one is our captain the other our best rising mid

I frankly can't find anyone I would drop from that side in favour of a JPK who will be 34 yo next year and likely in his last year of football. Campbell, Warner and Rowbottom have not always been included in our 22 last year, but project that, form permitting, all will be fixtures in the 2022 side. So there's no one else to drop in favour of JPK.

I think JPK would make an excellent medical sub.

[Aprilbr]

I frankly can't find anyone I would drop from that side in favour of a JPK who will be 34 yo next year and likely in his last year of football. Campbell, Warner and Rowbottom have not always been included in our 22 last year, but project that, form permitting, all will be fixtures in the 2022 side. So there's no one else to drop in favour of JPK.

I think JPK would make an excellent medical sub.

It will be interesting to see how we handle JPK next season. There is a string argument that he should have retired recently as he is probably too slow for the way footy is now played. However, his footy smarts and experience meant he was serviceable last season. Hopefully that will still be the case in 2022. I expect he will remain an asset playing mainly as a forward with bursts in the middle, and especially at home.

[Aprilbr]

I think some people forget that picking has been affected by the introduction of GWS and Sun's as well as Carlton and several other clubs getting bonus picks for just being crap. This did make things difficult but we were not that bad since 2011 with our first 3 picks. Sure some of them never came good. Others have since left the club, some due to our fault like Membrey & Nanka. Some for buck's like Mitchell. But recruiters do not have the benefit of hindsight. They do not make the contracts and pay the players. The have to work within those constructs and limitations.

No matter how good you believe Buddy has been for our footy club his contract did hurt us in regards to cap space and since the cap shrinkage it has been monumental.

Here are a list of all our top 3 picks since 2011:

2011

21 Mitchell
61 Brown
85 Gordon

We did not really have good picks in 2011 with 65 & 85 being 2 & 3. Mitchell was a great pick up. But the recruiters at the time would not have known he would bail. Gordon was a grafter and went on to play 2 seasons at Richmond after we delisted. Brown was a bust

2012

22 Towers
44 Marsh
46 Membrey

Not any low picks and I thought Marsh and Towers were serviceable if not world beaters. Not many players from this draft still playing. Membrey was the most disappointing after we did not offer him a contract. That was @@@@ by our footy dept. He was obviously the best of the bunch. But again, the recruiters do not have hindsight.

2013

15 Jones
32 Hewett
35 Nankervis

I think these were three good picks. Again hindsight would be a good thing

2014

18 Heeney
37 Rose
38 Hiscox

Even I was baffled by Hiscox. Rose was a risk that did not pay off. Hiscox was a disaster. He was a Rookie spot at best but I would not even have drafted Jack. I think our worst mistake in 10 years, possibly ever.

2015

3 Mills
51 Leonarsis
56 Dawson

Two out of three ain't bad. But Tyrone was terrible. He just did not understand two way footy and seemed as thick as a short plank.

2016

11 Florent
21 Hayward
45 Maibaum

Again two out of three. The first two are best 22

2017

14 Ling
33 McCartin
53 Stoddart

Poor Ling could not stay on the park long enough for us to see how good he could have been. The toe injury stuffed everything. When he played a few games he was quite good. But again hindsight is a good thing. Tom is a best 22 player. Stoddart was a bust

2018

10 Blakey
25 Rowbottom
44 McInerney

We blitzed this one. All three are best 22

2019

5 Stephens
26 Gould
36 E Taylor
39 Warner

How could anyone have predicted Taylor would be such a dropkick? He is a predigious talent and was looking good in his early matches.

Gould may yet come good. I put Warner in there because we had to sack Taylor. What a gem Chad is

2020

4 McDonald
5 Campbell
35 Gulden

All gold here





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A great analysis there of recent Swans draft history, WT. The only comment that I would disagree with is about Membrey. As others have stated, he was stuck behind Goidsie in playing senior footy and therefore decided to go to St Kilda who literally got him for nothing as they had the first pick in the PSD that year. He has since proven to be a very good AFL forward.

A bit of trivia on him. His junior team was Traralgon in the Latrobe Valley league. In their clubrooms, they have photos of past players who went on to play AFL. One of those photos is of Membrey proudly wearing his Swans jumper. I find that amusing given he hardly played a senior game for us. A psst excellent player for us also on display in that room is Neil Cordy, now an excellent sports reporter in Sydney.

[ugg]

Simon Dalrymple is on the latest NSW/ACT AFL podcast

https://aflnswact.com.au/podcast/

[bloodspirit]

The Doc's Top 30 AFL Draft Prospects - The Mongrel Punt - another draft ranking.

[Thunder Shaker]

Kevin Sheehan reveals his top NAB AFL Draft Prospects: Medium/Tall Midfielders
Players mentioned include Angus Anderson and Corey Warner. A lot of other good prospects were also mentioned and I expect about half of the first round of the draft to come from this list.

I expect the Swans will draft about two players from this list (Anderson being one of them).