Match thread. THE GRAND FINAL!!! Swans v Cats.

[ugg]

Match thread. THE GRAND FINAL!!! Swans v Cats.

ABC analysis of how the Cats won

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-09-25/how-geelong-won-the-2022-afl-grand-final/101472152

This quote really rang true for me

The Cats midfield worked hard to make space for their talisman, blocking their way in dead ball situations to turn Dangerfield loose.

I know most of us will never want to watch a replay of the game, but if you can somehow manage to stomach five minutes of footage just check out the centre bounces. Watch closely how the other Cats midfielders blocked for Dangerfield to work his magic.

In particular when Blicavs was playing as a midfielder, he used his bigger body to basically hold off his Swans opponent making a 3 on 3 (or 4 on 4 if you count the ruckmen) to a 2 on 2. He really has no interest in going for the ball. This resulted in more space for Dangerfield whom they backed to win the ball cleanly versus whoever he was up against

I saw this tactic in one of the previews (I think it was David King with a Champion Data analyst but I might be mistaken) so no doubt the Swans would have known about it too but seems like they couldn’t do anything about it

[Agent 86]

…I saw this tactic in one of the previews (I think it was David King with a Champion Data analyst but I might be mistaken) so no doubt the Swans would have known about it too but seems like they couldn’t do anything about it

Thanks Ugg. The ABC article you posted is the first one I’ve been bothered to read. The only thing I think we need to take from the game is how much we still have to learn as a team (& coaching panel).

We were in trouble from the get go with Hakwkin’s first goal looking like a training drill - everyone knows that’s his thing, so to let it happen in the first few minutes of the big game was a danger sign. Twice was unforgivable.

The training run just got worse and worse from there. Everything they tried came off & we seemed powerless to stop it.

[Roadrunner]

Ugg, your comments are spot on- maybe we should have moved Buddy for centre bounces counter their tactic! He is the only one who may have stopped Danger having a free reign.

[mcs]

Thanks Ugg. The ABC article you posted is the first one I’ve been bothered to read. The only thing I think we need to take from the game is how much we still have to learn as a team (& coaching panel).

We were in trouble from the get go with Hakwkin’s first goal looking like a training drill - everyone knows that’s his thing, so to let it happen in the first few minutes of the big game was a danger sign. Twice was unforgivable.

The training run just got worse and worse from there. Everything they tried came off & we seemed powerless to stop it.

When the Hawkins first goal from a ruck contest went in, alarm bells were ringing massively. When the second one went in, I was pretty sure it was going to be a long day at the footy.

That ABC article was a good read, thanks for sharing Ugg. The Cats did a brilliant job all day of the physical advantage to continually create space for their best players. Combined with our complete inability it seemed to even do the basics right, it created an absolute perfect storm.

[0918330512]

Who did we wear the black armbands for?

[ugg]

Who did we wear the black armbands for?

The McCartins's grandmother passed away recently.

[Ruck'n'Roll]

One other thing changed....we recruited Tippett and Buddy and became the hated. It was always going to be hard from that point to win on the last Saturday in September.
I swear we've had our papers stamped "Never to win the flag while Buddy's a Swan"....it certainly feels that way.

That sounds a touch paranoid Steve, rather than a conspiracy stamping our papers, maybe we did the stamping to ourselves.

[U.S. Swan]

That sounds a touch paranoid Steve, rather than a conspiracy stamping our papers, maybe we did the stamping to ourselves.

Fair enough! Not the first to call me paranoid but let me posit this. Remember that game and how many screw job calls there were. Remember the league , itself, was forced to concede the officiating was not “up to standard.” Professional sports leagues NEVER admit officiaiting is lacking. Even when it is awful they say it was standard. So that admission, in itself, states how bad it was. Remember the hype surrounding that grand final. Remember worldwide sensation Chris Hemsworth posing like Thor, flexing his muscles for worldwide audiences…hoping his team wins the flag in his lifetime.

Now, who signed an eight year deal with Etihad renaming it Marvel Stadium soon after? Disney. Who was VP and took over the Western Bulldogs as President? Kylie Watson-Wheeler. The same Kyle Watson Wheeler who just so happens to be a senior vice president od Disney. Who wore Thor jerseys to celebrate Marvel right after they won the flag? I can’t prove any of this (which is why I said its my opinion) and I LOVE footy but I have never seen a sport more influenced by corporatism and corporate interests. The amount of coincidences and conflicts of interest surroung that grand finals is sickening and the officiating was so admittedly bad, I can’t help but think maybe the Swans were screwed over to fit the narrative the league just so coincidentally wanted to have happen.

[U.S. Swan]

That sounds a touch paranoid Steve, rather than a conspiracy stamping our papers, maybe we did the stamping to ourselves.

So my point being as it relates to our friend Steve is “just because you are paranoid doesn’t mean they aren’t after you.”

[barracuda]

My 2 cents on why we lost:

1. The Reid/Logan/Mclean disaster. We started with only 21 players in the first quarter and gave up 6 goals. Logan and Armartey should have played. Reid and McLean should have not. It destroyed our forward line
2. Outcoached in the mids. Including super weird player positions. For example why was Mills playing in the forward line in the first half with Gulden playing back flank? Weird deviation from the game plan that got them to the final.
3. Too sociable. How many times do we have to see interstate teams go meekly to the MCG and get slaughtered by a Vic team. I'm thinking WC, Adelaide, Port Adelaide, GWS and now Sydney again! Blind freddy can see a different approach is need. Hawthorns premierships were built on unsociable footy. The swans players needed to be thumping the geelong players. The geelong players never once had to look over their shoulders giving them plenty of confidence. I was at the game and was expecting a melee at the end of the first quarter but the swans were too meek and it never came.
4. Deviation from the normal game prep. After the full squad had been involved in every match pre-meeting etc for the entire year, for some weird reason it was decided that the non playing players stay in a different hotel and be completely excluded from the entire prep. Suddenly instead of the team being surrounded by their fellow team mates geeing them up they were put in a bubble with guys like Brett Kirk talking his special brand of crap.

In my view something happened at the coaching/administration level that resulted in the team not preparing properly. They should have maintained their normal approach and positions except with a focus on playing hard, winning the contests and making the opposition hurt.

[ugg]

Can't speak for the other parts, but Mills started forward against the Dees so I don't think that was the issue. Also I don't Gulden was playing back flank specifically but pushing back there to help.

[Agent 86]

My 2 cents on why we lost…

2 Cents well spent!

We lost our nerve on the big stage from the top down to the fine details.

[stevoswan]

That sounds a touch paranoid Steve, rather than a conspiracy stamping our papers, maybe we did the stamping to ourselves.

Well yeah, we recruited Buddy....I think our only crime was underestimating the vengeful @@@@ storm it would create for us.

[mcs]

Some really interesting analysis of the centre bounces on Saturday and our mix of players on bigfooty.

https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/2022-grand-final.1332743/post-76814135

Extract from it:

Our five most used centre bounce combinations in order of success rate at winning centre clearance on Grand Final day:
1. Isaac Heeney, Luke Parker & James Rowbottom (four times with a strike rate of 75%)
2. Tom Papley, Luke Parker & James Rowbottom (four times with a strike rate of 50%)
3. Tom Papley, Luke Parker & Chad Warner (eight times with a strike rate of 37.5%*)
4. Errol Gulden, Luke Parker & Chad Warner (three times with a strike rate of 33.3%)
5. Callum Mills, Luke Parker & Chad Warner (four times with a strike rate of 25%)

*This figure is extremely flattered by two late centre clearances won in the last two minutes of the game.

Our mids by number of centre bounces attended in the run of six straight clearance losses in the 3rd term:
Luke Parker/Chad Warner - 5/6
Callum Mills - 3/6
Tom Papley - 2/6
Errol Gulden/Isaac Heeney/James Rowbottom - 1/6

Our mids in order of success rate at centre bounces with a winning centre clearance:
1. Isaac Heeney (62.5%)
2. James Rowbottom (58.3%)
3. Tom Papley (46.7%)
4. Callum Mills (42.9%)
5. Chad Warner (40.9%)
6. Luke Parker (40.7%)
7. Errol Gulden (25%)

[ugg]

The stats say we won the clearances but that of course doesn't tell the full story. The last comment in the AFL.com.au live timeline was the most telling for me.

The stoppage contest was where this game was decided, with Geelong losing possession after just one of their 33 clearances, whereas the Swans lost possession from 17 of their 37 clearances. This allowed the Cats to outscore the Swans 65-15 from this source, the largest margin from this source recorded in a Grand Final.

There are clearances, and then there are clean clearances. I lost count of the number of times Dangerfield, Blicavs, Selwood, Atkins, Guthrie and co. would have the time and space coming out of the stoppage whereas the Swans clearances were scrappy and often under pressure. I posted earlier how the Cats set up so well to block for Dangerfield, I wonder if we will employ similar tactics to assist Warner next year.