2023 List Management

[i'm-uninformed2]

I like the fact the club didn’t dither around and just got the deals done, and it’s probably helped that we are regarded as fair players and dealing with clubs who just want to do business. Melbourne are very good at just moving stuff along.

I get there is some risk re the Grundy deal if we collapse next year but a) I doubt it and b) even if we finish as we did this year, it’s worth about pick 20 on its face, but we know from this year, a pick in the second round gets shoved back a bit anyway due to FS, FA, Academy and other assorted kinks in the system. So in effect we have traded him for around pick 25-30. I think it’s a fair deal.

The deal I feel most queasy about in some ways is Stephens, as I suspect once he frees his mind, his talent will shine. But it was beyond redemption with us and I wish him well.

We’ve strengthened our list and our depth, nabbed two players for free via FA, kept our first round this year, will get our best Academy player, probably another in May via the rookie list - and got two first round picks for next year. And my understanding is we still have some good room in our salary cap. Don’t be surprised to see us have another dash next year.

All up, it’s very sound work. Now let’s go sign Errol and Logan to make the summer of progress complete.

[crackedactor 01]

Clearly

A productive day for Sydney at the trade table. I haven't seen a day like it for some time.

Stephens

In: future pick 19, pick 44.
Out: pick 25, Stephens:
Points: 756
Value: pick 34

This is not too far off what others here were saying would be fair value.

Grundy

In: Grundy.
Out: pick 46, future second-round pick (assumed pick 31 for calculations)
Points: 937
Value: Pick 20

I calculated the future pick as being equivalent to pick 31. This assumes Sydney finishes 8th next year, and takes into account North Melbourne's two assistance picks at the end of the first round.

Melbourne did well out of this trade, considering they got Grundy last year for pick 27. Are they paying for part of his salary?

Adams

In: Adams.
Out: pick 33

A good trade, which suggests Collingwood may have got a favourable salary outcome somewhere.

Draft picks

Picks 12, 44, 54. Sydney squeezed a lot of value out of its picks.

Future picks: Sydney upgraded its second-round pick to a first-round pick. Picks: first round, end of first round (pick 19), third round, fourth round.

Cleary

Picks 44 and 54 are worth 582 points, equivalent to pick 33. With a 20% discount, Sydney can match a bid on Cleary at pick 26 or later without going into a points deficit.

My guess for the draft

Pick 12: Defender. Murphy (200cm) if available, perhaps Leake (188cm).
Match bid on Cleary
Three remaining list spots to be filled with rookies.

I hope they are smart enough to choose Caiden Cleary at 12 and not take the risk with draft pick 44.

[rb4x]

The two picks we have 44 and 54 can cover pick 33 for Cleary at present. Obviously will change with trading F/S FA and academy bidding etc. Could move in or out but would be nice not to have future picks slide. There might to be some more action. Hopefully we do not trade down with 12.

[Auntie.Gerald]

It appears to me we are covered

Ie go for it at 12 and the two later picks will cover us for Cleary

Worst comes to worst we go into next season Re pts

[Goal Sneak]

I saw John Ralph on Fox saying that Melbourne are not paying any money for Grundy. Collingwood are paying $250k a year over 4 years and the Swans pay $650K.

[Auntie.Gerald]

That is a bargain then

As long as Grundy does his normal thing and be a ruck and contested follow up bull

Stoked especially given a few hunters now right in the out foraging for truffles

Honestly this trade period has been what I hoped for last year

Sometimes you just have to wait for Santa to get to the regional areas ????????????

[wolftone57]

Any hint of detail on the financial side of Grundy ?

I heard Barrett say a player cant have a deal with 3 clubs at the same time.
I wonder if Pies are paying some of Adams and Melb paying some of Grundy ?

Pies contract and agreement was with Grundy, not Melbourne. Pies are stuck with the agreement they made with Grundy to pay so much of his contract. We now pick up the portion Melbourne were paying.

Adams will be signing a new deal with Sydney. It has nothing to do with the Pies deal. As soon as he was traded that deal became null & void.

[Smith]

I saw John Ralph on Fox saying that Melbourne are not paying any money for Grundy. Collingwood are paying $250k a year over 4 years and the Swans pay $650K.

I call BS. You don’t go from offering a pick in the 40’s one minute (reportedly), to then offering the same pick and a 2024 2nd rounder the next, without some movement.

Not sure these guys ever really know.

[Thunder Shaker]

I hope they are smart enough to choose Caiden Cleary at 12 and not take the risk with draft pick 44.

The only real concerns are Cleary being drafted before our pick (very unlikely), or Cleary being drafted between our first-round pick and pick 26.

Our first draft pick is currently pick 12, but that will slide to as low as 17 on draft night. Conversely, our later picks will move up as earlier picks are used for matching bids.

Let's look at the clubs holding later points-bearing picks as it currently stands.

Gold Coast: 23, 26, 27, 31, 35, 37, 61, 65, 70, 73
Hawthorn: 32, 53 (equivalent to pick 17 for matching with 20% discount) - also hold pick 4.
Western Bulldogs: 39, 47, 52, 68, 71, also hold pick 5.

It's possible that eight of these picks before pick 44 will be used up in bid matching (Gold Coast 6, Hawthorn 1, Bulldogs 1). So our pick 44 could improve to pick 36 by the end of the first round of the draft. Pick 54 would improve to pick 44. If Sydney holds pick 36 and 44, that would be 864 points, equivalent to pick 16 for matching bids with 20% discount.

After bid matching, the gap between our first-round pick and a points deficit would be closed. So the concern of an early bid on Cleary after our first-round pick is not really a problem.

[wolftone57]

Hamling?

Yes, Joel Hamling was a first round draft pick. he played in a premiership. If his body did not let him down I am certain he would still be one of the best defenders in the AFL. If he can get his body right we have a bargain.

[wolftone57]

There’s a tweet from a journo saying Melbourne are not paying any of Grundy’s salary

That is because Collingwood are still paying a portion of his salary. The deal was between Grundy & Collingwood, not Melbourne & Collingwood

[Mel_C]

Was pleasantly surprised both deals were done today. I thought for sure they were going to drag on until the last day.

[Dow]

That is a bargain then

As long as Grundy does his normal thing and be a ruck and contested follow up bull

Stoked especially given a few hunters now right in the out foraging for truffles

Honestly this trade period has been what I hoped for last year

Sometimes you just have to wait for Santa to get to the regional areas ????????????

I have to say, when all the deals where going down I thought AG will be beside himself lol ????

[liz]

After bid matching, the gap between our first-round pick and a points deficit would be closed. So the concern of an early bid on Cleary after our first-round pick is not really a problem.

It's not a problem at all. I have our two late picks, as they currently stand, being points-equivalent to around pick 26. But as you say, they'll increase in value long before then. If someone bids earlier, we let him go or we go into slight deficit on our first round pick next year (since we've traded away our second round pick).

He's pretty good at his main trick but he lacks the positional flexibility that clubs love. And it's not very hard to find players like him in the draft. They are rarely selected with early picks unless they are big, explosive and/or highly skilled. I'll be surprised if he attracts a pick before we have sufficient points to cover.

[wolftone57]

I call BS. You don’t go from offering a pick in the 40’s one minute (reportedly), to then offering the same pick and a 2024 2nd rounder the next, without some movement.

Not sure these guys ever really know.

John Ralph is right about the Grundy payment. this has been discussed ad nauseum on all AFL sites for a month now. pies still have to pay their part because the deal they did WAS WITH GRUNDY NOT MELBOURNE