2023 List Management

[Smith]

John Ralph is right about the Grundy payment. this has been discussed ad nauseum on all AFL sites for a month now. pies still have to pay their part because the deal they did WAS WITH GRUNDY NOT MELBOURNE

That’s understood. The question is moreso if Melbourne had to also lump up part of the remaining salary. Ralph says no, unless Kinnear has said it I’m not so sure.

[waswan]

That’s understood. The question is moreso if Melbourne had to also lump up part of the remaining salary. Ralph says no, unless Kinnear has said it I’m not so sure.

I think its true, a player can only have a deal with 2 teams

[MattW]

A productive day for Sydney at the trade table. I haven't seen a day like it for some time.

Stephens

In: future pick 19, pick 44.
Out: pick 25, Stephens:
Points: 756
Value: pick 34

This is not too far off what others here were saying would be fair value.

Grundy

In: Grundy.
Out: pick 46, future second-round pick (assumed pick 31 for calculations)
Points: 937
Value: Pick 20

I calculated the future pick as being equivalent to pick 31. This assumes Sydney finishes 8th next year, and takes into account North Melbourne's two assistance picks at the end of the first round.

Melbourne did well out of this trade, considering they got Grundy last year for pick 27. Are they paying for part of his salary?

Adams

In: Adams.
Out: pick 33

A good trade, which suggests Collingwood may have got a favourable salary outcome somewhere.

Draft picks

Picks 12, 44, 54. Sydney squeezed a lot of value out of its picks.

Future picks: Sydney upgraded its second-round pick to a first-round pick. Picks: first round, end of first round (pick 19), third round, fourth round.

Cleary

Picks 44 and 54 are worth 582 points, equivalent to pick 33. With a 20% discount, Sydney can match a bid on Cleary at pick 26 or later without going into a points deficit.

My guess for the draft

Pick 12: Defender. Murphy (200cm) if available, perhaps Leake (188cm).
Match bid on Cleary
Three remaining list spots to be filled with rookies.

Great post, exactly what I was looking for, so thanks.

We were pretty generous with Melbourne, noting albeit, as others have said, thst 46 wasn't a pick we would have used.

[MattW]

The only real concerns are Cleary being drafted before our pick (very unlikely), or Cleary being drafted between our first-round pick and pick 26.

Our first draft pick is currently pick 12, but that will slide to as low as 17 on draft night. Conversely, our later picks will move up as earlier picks are used for matching bids.

Let's look at the clubs holding later points-bearing picks as it currently stands.

Gold Coast: 23, 26, 27, 31, 35, 37, 61, 65, 70, 73
Hawthorn: 32, 53 (equivalent to pick 17 for matching with 20% discount) - also hold pick 4.
Western Bulldogs: 39, 47, 52, 68, 71, also hold pick 5.

It's possible that eight of these picks before pick 44 will be used up in bid matching (Gold Coast 6, Hawthorn 1, Bulldogs 1). So our pick 44 could improve to pick 36 by the end of the first round of the draft. Pick 54 would improve to pick 44. If Sydney holds pick 36 and 44, that would be 864 points, equivalent to pick 16 for matching bids with 20% discount.

After bid matching, the gap between our first-round pick and a points deficit would be closed. So the concern of an early bid on Cleary after our first-round pick is not really a problem.

Again - appreciate the analysis.

[Markwebbos]

Top work KB and team. No messing around.

I’m hoping we are bundling up two firsts (12 and 19 next year) to go after Geelong’s pick 8.

Btw If we are short on points for Cleary we can always do a side deal to swap a future pick for one this year.

[waswan]

Can see Pick 12 going top 7 and 19 going 2nd round this year

[Ludwig]

No one saw this coming. I was totally unprepared for how we handled this trade period. It could hardly have gone better. All the recruits and what remained with our draft picks worked out perfectly.

As noted, we have enough points nominally for Cleary at pick 26, but picks 44 and 51 will come in by at least 5 places once GC and others cash in their 2nd round picks for their high draft picks, so we are looking okay for a bid at pick 18. Ain't gonna happen. We will have a pick in the 40s left over.

I think we still have 3 draft picks + a Cat B selection in play, even if we sign Reid.

With Jordon and Adams added to our midfield and hopefully a fit Sheldrick and Roberts, we look more than deep enough to cover the absence of Mills. When he does return there should be a dogfight for spots.

Yes, Joel Hamling was a first round draft pick.

2011 2nd round Pick 32.

[stevoswan]

Those attachments don't work for me for some reason

Yeah, some attachments put up by others don't work for me either.....most of the time in fact.

These images appeared on the ABC Trade Feed from the Swans X (Twitter) account if you want to follow them up.

[stevoswan]

We have Tom Mc with Hamling, Melican or Reid (imo).

The last 3 played a combined for less than 12 games this year.

Obviously Fox and Rampe can help out too.

God help us if Tom Mc has an issue

You're in WA, is it true that Hamling played a near full season in the WAFL, when he wasn't playing those 6 games for the Dockers.......or was he injured a lot?

I'm sure someone said he played in the WAFL most of the year.

[waswan]

You're in WA, is it true that Hamling played a near full season in the WAFL, when he wasn't playing those 6 games for the Dockers.......or was he injured a lot?

I'm sure someone said he played in the WAFL most of the year.

Finish 2nd in the F&B and played almost a full year

Hamling can be a good pickup, only cautious part about him for me is that he has looked like a good pick up for 8yrs. He did have a bad ankle injury for most of his time at Freo

[barry]

A productive day for Sydney at the trade table. I haven't seen a day like it for some time.

Stephens

In: future pick 19, pick 44.
Out: pick 25, Stephens:
Points: 756
Value: pick 34

This is not too far off what others here were saying would be fair value.

I think the puts a full stop on one of the worst draft decision we made in picking Stephens at 5 , or 6 .. whatever it was.
To now be ranked the 34th best player in a draft in only two years, questions need to be asked what the selectors saw in him, and how that didn't translate into a decent long term player for the club.

I wish him all the best and hope he does well at North.

[The Big Cat]

I think the puts a full stop on one of the worst draft decision we made in picking Stephens at 5 , or 6 .. whatever it was.
To now be ranked the 34th best player in a draft in only two years, questions need to be asked what the selectors saw in him, and how that didn't translate into a decent long term player for the club.

I wish him all the best and hope he does well at North.

4 years

[longmile]

I think the puts a full stop on one of the worst draft decision we made in picking Stephens at 5 , or 6 .. whatever it was.
To now be ranked the 34th best player in a draft in only two years, questions need to be asked what the selectors saw in him, and how that didn't translate into a decent long term player for the club.

I wish him all the best and hope he does well at North.

I'll never forget. I was so convinced that day we were going to pick Serong. What could of been

[barry]

I'll never forget. I was so convinced that day we were going to pick Serong. What could of been

Would have been nice. However it was a strange draft. A lot of hit and miss in 2019 by everyone.

Take a look at 2018 draft. Almost every player played like their draft position.

[waswan]

I'll never forget. I was so convinced that day we were going to pick Serong. What could of been

Same
Im sure KB bought dinner and drinks tonight for that screw up