2023 List Management

[Ruck'n'Roll]

Are the Giant's not trying to make him into a KPP, is that the difference?

O'Connor would be an interesting pick. Though I think GWS have been trying to turn him into a big bodied midfielder.

I wondered, thanks for confirming the posi change. Even with our current lack of big body midfielders, picking BOC might be a bit of admission we were too hasty - can't see it happening.

Oscar McDonald delisted by two other clubs. Surely Melican is at least as good and knows our systems.
McDonald would indicate the club still believes they can make finals.
WCE, Hawks, Norf and GWS select before us. Hawks bound to have a Box Hill special tucked away, WCE probably take a Perth local, Norf will take a prayer book as they need one, GWS likely to be a young player as they have already ruled out finals this season so McDonald will be available all right, but I hope not.

Even with no other choice, we haven't picked Melican - so his cards appear to be marked. As to McDonald, from the outside it looks a bit of a desperation move - I hope it isn't.

[liz]

Even with no other choice, we haven't picked Melican - so his cards appear to be marked. As to McDonald, from the outside it looks a bit of a desperation move - I hope it isn't.

Melican is one and a half VFL games back from his latest injury setback. Given his long history with soft tissue injuries, I think it would have been a bit of desperation to select his this week.

I don't have any particular views on McDonald as a player. (My recollection is that, at Melbourne, he was decently quick but with ordinary kicking skills and was pushed out when the Dees went on the recruitment spree that netted them Lever and May). But people have been bemoaning our lack of tall defensive depth this season (even though any club would struggle to cover losing its three key defenders all at the same time - I'm counting Rampe as a key defender despite his height). McDonald is exactly the kind of player who could be cheap defensive cover to come in for a game here and there when we need him, and will otherwise be content to be in the AFL system and meantime help out our developing VFL squad. If we were to draft him in the MSD, I doubt it would be with a view to just holding him for six months, but looking towards next year as well.

There are strong question marks over Paddy McCartin, maybe some over Tom. Rampe probably only has a year or two left at best. Even if we draft a key defender (or two) in the year end National Draft, history suggests there's a chance they won't fit into the AFL system (Fischer McAsey), struggle to develop physically, at least in their early years (Denver Grainger-Barras), suffer career ending injuries early in their careers (Alex Johnson) or growing pain injuries that curtail their early development (Zach Reid), or forge out a career but one that is continuously interrupted by injury (Ben Reid).

If we are lucky, we might pick the next Sam Taylor, Jake Lever, Harrison Petty, Tom McCartin but they won't be ready to come in and hold down a key defensive role for several seasons.

So if we rebound next season, with this year proving to be an injury-caused temporary setback, and our young brigade of midfielders surging forward in unison, and McDonald/Amartey forging a masterful duo in our forward line, and Heeney miraculously ridding his body of the niggles he carries, and Rampe proving he's not yet ready for his swan song, and Tom McCartin shaking any lingering long-term concussion issues, and the arrival of a mature talent like Himmelberg, and McAndrew proving to be the tall tap ruckman that can give our mids first sight of the ball, et etc, it will still be useful to have a player like Oscar McDonald in reserve, providing that depth that everyone cries out for (but bemoans when it's actually called upon).

[Roadrunner]

Melican is one and a half VFL games back from his latest injury setback. Given his long history with soft tissue injuries, I think it would have been a bit of desperation to select his this week.

I don't have any particular views on McDonald as a player. (My recollection is that, at Melbourne, he was decently quick but with ordinary kicking skills and was pushed out when the Dees went on the recruitment spree that netted them Lever and May). But people have been bemoaning our lack of tall defensive depth this season (even though any club would struggle to cover losing its three key defenders all at the same time - I'm counting Rampe as a key defender despite his height). McDonald is exactly the kind of player who could be cheap defensive cover to come in for a game here and there when we need him, and will otherwise be content to be in the AFL system and meantime help out our developing VFL squad. If we were to draft him in the MSD, I doubt it would be with a view to just holding him for six months, but looking towards next year as well.

There are strong question marks over Paddy McCartin, maybe some over Tom. Rampe probably only has a year or two left at best. Even if we draft a key defender (or two) in the year end National Draft, history suggests there's a chance they won't fit into the AFL system (Fischer McAsey), struggle to develop physically, at least in their early years (Denver Grainger-Barras), suffer career ending injuries early in their careers (Alex Johnson) or growing pain injuries that curtail their early development (Zach Reid), or forge out a career but one that is continuously interrupted by injury (Ben Reid).

If we are lucky, we might pick the next Sam Taylor, Jake Lever, Harrison Petty, Tom McCartin but they won't be ready to come in and hold down a key defensive role for several seasons.

So if we rebound next season, with this year proving to be an injury-caused temporary setback, and our young brigade of midfielders surging forward in unison, and McDonald/Amartey forging a masterful duo in our forward line, and Heeney miraculously ridding his body of the niggles he carries, and Rampe proving he's not yet ready for his swan song, and Tom McCartin shaking any lingering long-term concussion issues, and the arrival of a mature talent like Himmelberg, and McAndrew proving to be the tall tap ruckman that can give our mids first sight of the ball, et etc, it will still be useful to have a player like Oscar McDonald in reserve, providing that depth that everyone cries out for (but bemoans when it's actually called upon).

I’m following your thinking Liz and you make a lot of sense. My colleague is a longtime Dees fan and he used to moan every time Oscar was picked as he was sure they would lose! So I wouldn’t want him in our seniors but he could play the odd game when we don’t have anyone else- however I’m not in favour of “wasting” a draft pick.

[KSAS]

The conundrum is that it's difficult to maintain decent KPPs on your list who are only depth players, as they are likely to look for more opportunities elsewhere or be targeted. Particularly if you have seasons with very few injuries/suspensions.

Maybe the trick is to rotate (manage) the veterans on your list to keep them fresh & improve their longevity, as Geelong seemed to have done?

The depth issue manifests when you have a horror injury run season like we're experiencing, particularly with our KPP stocks, which is pretty dam difficult to cover adequately as we're finding out!

Aaron Francis was recruited as a depth player but is now getting games due to the big hit with our KPP stocks. Melican may also once he gets enough VFL games under his belt. Hope Gould makes most of his opportunities to prove his wares.

List Management will become more crucial with the increasing concussion protocols, likely to sideline more players for longer periods.

Edit: Really bemoaning this season whenever I hear how important Allir, Darcy Cameron, Jordan Dawson, Nankervis & to an extent Tom Mitchell are to their respective teams, with the benefit of hindsight.

[liz]

I’m following your thinking Liz and you make a lot of sense. My colleague is a longtime Dees fan and he used to moan every time Oscar was picked as he was sure they would lose! So I wouldn’t want him in our seniors but he could play the odd game when we don’t have anyone else- however I’m not in favour of “wasting” a draft pick.

I suspect that says more about your colleague's perceptions than reality. I went and had a look at his Melbourne career. Starting from round 22 2015 to the end of 2020, when he was delisted, he played 81 games and was absent for 29. The Dees' win/loss record when he played was 42/39 and when he didn't play it was 11/18.

(I deleted one data point because my source didn't record whether it was a win or loss and I couldn't be bothered to go and look it up. Maybe it was a draw.)

I took data from here.

Oscar McDonald All AFL Statistics - FinalSiren.com

When you say "waste a draft pick", what are your criteria / measurement standards. Thus far you could probably judge the number of players taken in a mid-season draft who have been roaring successes on the fingers of one hand. Noble. Pickett. Jai Newcombe. Ash Johnson. Who else? There are a handful who have managed the odd game here and there, but few others (I can think of who have really established themselves) A few from last year's draft are showing some promise, including the now injured number 1 pick who nevertheless snared a Rising Star nomination before hurting his knee, but most are going to be delisted at the end of this season without making a dent in the competition.

We will get our first ever "reward" from our past pre-season picks tomorrow when McAndrew makes his debut.

[i'm-uninformed2]

My issue with McDonald would be he's a pick for the here and now, rather than one for Grand Final Day, 2025-28.

I get we have real issues down back now due to injuries, but I'd be more inclined to give Francis and Gould a chance to find out once and for all, rather than someone who was at best a B-grade defender, an average field kick and easily pushed off the ball by the big boys. McDonald is no better a footballer than Melican from anything I've seen - and he's 27.

I'd prefer the club invest in someone like an Elliot who has potential upside and can be groomed and developed over the next 18 months. Is there a guarantee it will work? No. But is Oscar McDonald going to radically improve our list and come a big final, be the difference? Highly unlikely.

[707]

We'll find out on May 31st what the club thinking is

[Jimitron5000]

With clouds over both McCartins and Rampe, I get the need for Oscar McDonald. I don't have any particular issue with him as a player except that he is limited. I would rather go for someone like Ethan Phillips at Port Melbourne, who is 23, a good size and has been super for Port over a couple of seasons.

[Auntie.Gerald]

My take on a mid season type pick like a Oscar Mac or a Francis end of season no currency cost is that they wont tend to loose you a game

they are brought in to minimise weaknesses we have in our squad and minimise opposition ability to expose your obvious deficiency on game days when your best are not available

ie last few weeks

If these types of players can play a role ie run with or body on body and reduce the way an opposition team wants to take you on then they have true value for our squad and game management

[Roadrunner]

I suspect that says more about your colleague's perceptions than reality. I went and had a look at his Melbourne career. Starting from round 22 2015 to the end of 2020, when he was delisted, he played 81 games and was absent for 29. The Dees' win/loss record when he played was 42/39 and when he didn't play it was 11/18.

(I deleted one data point because my source didn't record whether it was a win or loss and I couldn't be bothered to go and look it up. Maybe it was a draw.)

I took data from here.

Oscar McDonald All AFL Statistics - FinalSiren.com

When you say "waste a draft pick", what are your criteria / measurement standards. Thus far you could probably judge the number of players taken in a mid-season draft who have been roaring successes on the fingers of one hand. Noble. Pickett. Jai Newcombe. Ash Johnson. Who else? There are a handful who have managed the odd game here and there, but few others (I can think of who have really established themselves) A few from last year's draft are showing some promise, including the now injured number 1 pick who nevertheless snared a Rising Star nomination before hurting his knee, but most are going to be delisted at the end of this season without making a dent in the competition.

We will get our first ever "reward" from our past pre-season picks tomorrow when McAndrew makes his debut.

Player stats are one thing Liz- supporters watching him play think he’s bang average, though of course he can play the odd good game. The “reward” in taking a young player is that his potential can be high, but he may never make it either. So it’s your risk/reward situation and this is where the expertise of the recruiting team can tip the odds in our favour. Of course there can never be any guarantees, only probabilities, and luck with injuries. However, my language may have been too harsh when saying “wasted” and therefore I’m happy to correct it. Still, I would prefer if we picked the best available tall rather than Oscar, even though it may take 2-3 years for the lad to develop. List management should be about forward planning as well as filling immediate gaps in our squad, and clearly we have neglected talls the last few drafts.

[Velour&Ruffles]

Player stats are one thing Liz- supporters watching him play think he’s bang average, though of course he can play the odd good game. The “reward” in taking a young player is that his potential can be high, but he may never make it either. So it’s your risk/reward situation and this is where the expertise of the recruiting team can tip the odds in our favour. Of course there can never be any guarantees, only probabilities, and luck with injuries. However, my language may have been too harsh when saying “wasted” and therefore I’m happy to correct it. Still, I would prefer if we picked the best available tall rather than Oscar, even though it may take 2-3 years for the lad to develop. List management should be about forward planning as well as filling immediate gaps in our squad, and clearly we have neglected talls the last few drafts.

An incredibly well reasoned comment followed by an incredibly well reasoned response. I don't think RWO has ever experienced this before. Great stuff Liz and Roadrunner.

[wedge.maverick]

Did anyone notice the 20 year old CHB that took 13 marks and had 27 touches for Northern Bullants in our VFL game?
His name is Baker Smith and his stats this season are pretty impressive. He’s a good longer term option KPP.

[gloveski]

Gold Coast will have to shop around there first round pick this year as they have 3 Academy players that all could potentially go top 20 to 30 , they need points. Would love to see us target that somehow while also keeping our first round pick this year .
We could package the two first rounders plus our future first to at least get in the conversation for a crack at Harley Reid . Especially if West Coast finish last


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[gloveski]

As for mid year draft I hope we target a developing tall that’s no older than say 24 . It fits better with our age profile


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[707]

There have been a number of mature talls become MSD success stories. MSD is a chance to fill a list gap at no cost - Baker Smith, give KB a call in case he missed him :-)