2023 List Management

[Auntie.Gerald]

Hey Mark

I have never stood for a trade only strategy. The inference as well as direct comments I make are “I am still concerned we are under weight some important trades or non draft acquired players for specific roles that require a mature body to have immediate top22 impact.” Ie a couple talls.

Now Belle and Arnold could be project players that could also level jump much faster than I expect. Yet the horse has bolted for 2023 season which is a real shame given our performance in 2022 and 2023 being a season to go again and challenge for a strong finals series.

We have been successful in finding smart ways to attract players in the past outside of the main AFL national draft but I think we to go again to bulk up our list as the drafted players are developing.we do have a good hand to work with for the next draft and trade period.

I have never not acknowledged how strong some of our frugal trades have been over the years in amongst some real crap calls.

Hickey was a smart trade
Ladhams also
Paddy McCartin very much came into his own via a cost neutral way to join the club
Fox years later showing great value and development
Francis still possibly an important part of the squad and minimal cost
McClean good value so far
Arnold let’s see how he goes
Bullet same again early days
Paps elite and a bargain
Lloyd elite and a bargain
Rampe elite and a bargain
Etc
Etc

I also acknowledge that we live in a salary cap environment and draft environment so I totally that get every single tweak has an opportunity cost when building a strong and deep list.

What is up for debate as it is every single season is performance vs list development and my concern that we are little outside of where we want to be with the depth of our squad vs some others.

I do believe the obvious will be bringing in a ready made experienced AFL player or two ie one for our backline and one up front.

I do believe if we were deeper in these two areas this season we would be on 8 wins vs 5 wins when I reflect on the games we lost and how we lost. GWS, PIES, FREO, SAINTS games come to mind how we were heavily compromised in our line ups and 3 of these 4 games I felt with an extra tall or two with experience would have helped tremendously how we set up.

I mean we wouldn’t have a thread on the subject if it wasn’t important and or contentious and I feel our depth is weaker than the PIES, MELBOURNE, CATS, PORT, BRISBANE

Mark you make a good point (that I think all forum members have tended to agree with)……Sydney is not a destination city for all players and that makes it much easier for a Melbourne player to simply move from one club to another like Issac Smith did from the Hawks to the Cats and make a significant difference to the 2022 Cats team and a big difference in a GF.

So we will tend to draft more than we trade to maintain control of our cap as we are a city that will majority of time have to pay a premium to entice say a Melbourne player to leave their family and friends and move up the him highway.

I think if the put a man on the moon in 1969 we can make it happen Re our list for 2024

[Roadrunner]

Hey Mark

I have never stood for a trade only strategy. The inference as well as direct comments I make are “I am still concerned we are under weight some important trades or non draft acquired players for specific roles that require a mature body to have immediate top22 impact.” Ie a couple talls.

Now Belle and Arnold could be project players that could also level jump much faster than I expect. Yet the horse has bolted for 2023 season which is a real shame given our performance in 2022 and 2023 being a season to go again and challenge for a strong finals series.

We have been successful in finding smart ways to attract players in the past outside of the main AFL national draft but I think we to go again to bulk up our list as the drafted players are developing.we do have a good hand to work with for the next draft and trade period.

I have never not acknowledged how strong some of our frugal trades have been over the years in amongst some real crap calls.

Hickey was a smart trade
Ladhams also
Paddy McCartin very much came into his own via a cost neutral way to join the club
Fox years later showing great value and development
Francis still possibly an important part of the squad and minimal cost
McClean good value so far
Arnold let’s see how he goes
Bullet same again early days
Paps elite and a bargain
Lloyd elite and a bargain
Rampe elite and a bargain
Etc
Etc

I also acknowledge that we live in a salary cap environment and draft environment so I totally that get every single tweak has an opportunity cost when building a strong and deep list.

What is up for debate as it is every single season is performance vs list development and my concern that we are little outside of where we want to be with the depth of our squad vs some others.

I do believe the obvious will be bringing in a ready made experienced AFL player or two ie one for our backline and one up front.

I do believe if we were deeper in these two areas this season we would be on 8 wins vs 5 wins when I reflect on the games we lost and how we lost. GWS, PIES, FREO, SAINTS games come to mind how we were heavily compromised in our line ups and 3 of these 4 games I felt with an extra tall or two with experience would have helped tremendously how we set up.

I mean we wouldn’t have a thread on the subject if it wasn’t important and or contentious and I feel our depth is weaker than the PIES, MELBOURNE, CATS, PORT, BRISBANE

Mark you make a good point (that I think all forum members have tended to agree with)……Sydney is not a destination city for all players and that makes it much easier for a Melbourne player to simply move from one club to another like Issac Smith did from the Hawks to the Cats and make a significant difference to the 2022 Cats team and a big difference in a GF.

So we will tend to draft more than we trade to maintain control of our cap as we are a city that will majority of time have to pay a premium to entice say a Melbourne player to leave their family and friends and move up the him highway.

I think if the put a man on the moon in 1969 we can make it happen Re our list for 2024

Agree with a lot of that Auntie. I just feel that tour forward planning has not been as good as we thought.
We unfortunately lost 2 key players in AA and Dawso, through no fault of our own, and this left a significant gap in our list, especially AA, as things turned out re the McCartin injuries.

Furthermore, our drafting strategy has been a bit flawed imho in taking the best available rather than KP’s which were so obviously needed. I like Gus and hope he makes it but we really should have taken Van Rooyen- and I’m not saying this with hindsight, as he was an obvious choice given our list. Most on here had him pencilled in if available. Then we let go a player like Cameron without a proper go, etc- ok, there may have been extenuating circumstances but let’s face it, our management could have done better.

The main thing is to learn from mistakes and not repeat them. Don’t trade in players to play for our VFL team- if they are not good enough for our seniors we don’t need them! List cloggers will never win us a flag!

[liz]

Some good pints Liz to weigh up all the data

Something I did forget was that we had a full team the Dees earlier this year less Hickey and we lost by 50pts

Pies had approx 7 best 22 players out and lost by 4 pts

Yes Melbourne kicked terribly but partly where the Pies shaped them to kick from

But either way……. It’s fair data to take into account when comparing two teams who were neck and neck into the finals last year and how they recruited in the off season…….and how they are delivering in 2023

Or not delivering

I don't think anyone would argue that injuries are the only reason for our drop off this season. It's just that they have been so pervasive, it is hard to untangle their impact - at least from the outside - from whatever else hasn't gone right.

And yes, we did play poorly against Melbourne. We were also prone to throw in the odd stinker last season, especially in the first half of the year. And in 2021 also. Most teams have off days, though ours do seem to be whiffier than other clubs. Or maybe we just pay more attention to them than we do those of other clubs.

[Blood Fever]

Your last sentence is spot on. We often focus solely on our team and its flaws as if a lot of other sides don't have any. Nature of fanatical supporters I guess.

[Mountain Man]

I posted some time ago that the injuries to our Key Defenders had a knock on effect on the rest of the team as Key Defenders tend to have very high Time On Ground.

If you look at our narrow losses, the TOG for our makeshift defenders was lower than normal %, and the mids in particular had to play more minutes - and inevitably tired in 4th quarters

[Thunder Shaker]

I don't think anyone would argue that injuries are the only reason for our drop off this season. It's just that they have been so pervasive, it is hard to untangle their impact - at least from the outside - from whatever else hasn't gone right.

And yes, we did play poorly against Melbourne. We were also prone to throw in the odd stinker last season, especially in the first half of the year. And in 2021 also. Most teams have off days, though ours do seem to be whiffier than other clubs. Or maybe we just pay more attention to them than we do those of other clubs.

It's also worth mentioning that we've had a few close losses. Port 2 points, GWS 1 point. Had we won both of those, we would be in 8th or 9th place (same wins as Western Bulldogs and close to them on percentage). We also lost to Freo by 17 and St Kilda by 14, in games we should have won.

So the problem here is closing out games.

Crucial injuries played a part. Would we have lost to Port if the McCartins had not both got concussed? Would we have lost to St Kilda if we were not subbing out Blakey?

[barry]

It's also worth mentioning that we've had a few close losses. Port 2 points, GWS 1 point. Had we won both of those, we would be in 8th or 9th place (same wins as Western Bulldogs and close to them on percentage). We also lost to Freo by 17 and St Kilda by 14, in games we should have won.

So the problem here is closing out games.

The problem with that thought process, is teams that are around us on the ladder have the same sad story. GWS, Richmond, even Carlton could have easily snagged a few more wins if they were lucky.

So if we did, and they did, we'd still be 14th.

[Markwebbos]

Swans may be asking about Tom Barass again according to Mitch Cleary. He’d be handy right now.

Do we need another KPP?
What about another mid? And if so, who?

[Auntie.Gerald]

https://archive.md/LN4Op

[Thunder Shaker]

The problem with that thought process, is teams that are around us on the ladder have the same sad story. GWS, Richmond, even Carlton could have easily snagged a few more wins if they were lucky.

So if we did, and they did, we'd still be 14th.

You omitted my remarks about injuries in my previous post. This was a part of the post for a reason.

In a couple of our losses, we lost players to injury early in the game. We lost to Port by 2 points after playing an entire half without a backline. We lost to St Kilda after Blakey was subbed out in the second quarter. We struggled in the last quarter, not because we were playing badly but because the players were covering for injured players for much of the game.

If these injuries were happening in the last quarter, or there were no injuries at all, would we have lost all those games? I doubt it.

This is the nature of an injury-depleted season. There is much discussion about players being unable to be selected due to injury, and for good reason. What's not discussed as much is the effect of injuries in the matches in which the injuries occur. This is has a greater effect if the injuries occur early, as has happened a few times this year. Not only are the players unable to play due to injury, we play the rest of the game with fewer players.

Matches we lost without reported injuries:
* Melbourne (R3) - Melbourne had one injury.
* GWS (R7) - no injuries to GWS.

Matches we lost with injuries:
* Port (R4) [P.McCartin (concussion), T.McCartin (concussion)] - no injuries to Port.
* Geelong (R6) [Matt Roberts (knee)] - no injuries to Geelong.
* Collingwood (R8) [Ladhams (shoulder/neck), Sheather (left knee)] - one injury to Collingwood.
* Fremantle (R9) [Mills (calf), McDonald (ankle)] - no injuries to Fremantle.
* St Kilda (R13) [Nick Blakey (toe)] - no injuries to St Kilda.

Matches we won without reported injuries:
* Gold Coast (R1) - Gold Coast had one injury.
* Hawthorn (R2) - no injuries to Hawthorn.
* Carlton (R11) - Carlton had four injuries.

Matches we won with injuries:
* Richmond (R5) [Amartey (hamstring)] - no injuries to Richmond (they had injuries in earlier matches).
* North Melbourne (R10) [Ladhams (ankle)] - no injuries to North Melbourne.

This is the nature of an injury-depleted season. Three of our losses (Port, Fremantle, St Kilda) were influenced by injuries to key players. Our opponents in those three games had none between them.

Does luck play a role here? Definitely, and it's correct for you to point that out. However, do not ignore the nature of that luck. A few lucky bounces or a few bad decisions in a game has much less influence in the game and future games than an unlucky injury.

[Thunder Shaker]

Addendum: The only one of our wins that could have been influenced by injuries during the match was the win over Carlton (we had none, Carlton had four).

[Blood Fever]

You omitted my remarks about injuries in my previous post. This was a part of the post for a reason.

In a couple of our losses, we lost players to injury early in the game. We lost to Port by 2 points after playing an entire half without a backline. We lost to St Kilda after Blakey was subbed out in the second quarter. We struggled in the last quarter, not because we were playing badly but because the players were covering for injured players for much of the game.

If these injuries were happening in the last quarter, or there were no injuries at all, would we have lost all those games? I doubt it.

This is the nature of an injury-depleted season. There is much discussion about players being unable to be selected due to injury, and for good reason. What's not discussed as much is the effect of injuries in the matches in which the injuries occur. This is has a greater effect if the injuries occur early, as has happened a few times this year. Not only are the players unable to play due to injury, we play the rest of the game with fewer players.

Matches we lost without reported injuries:
* Melbourne (R3) - Melbourne had one injury.
* GWS (R7) - no injuries to GWS.

Matches we lost with injuries:
* Port (R4) [P.McCartin (concussion), T.McCartin (concussion)] - no injuries to Port.
* Geelong (R6) [Matt Roberts (knee)] - no injuries to Geelong.
* Collingwood (R8) [Ladhams (shoulder/neck), Sheather (left knee)] - one injury to Collingwood.
* Fremantle (R9) [Mills (calf), McDonald (ankle)] - no injuries to Fremantle.
* St Kilda (R13) [Nick Blakey (toe)] - no injuries to St Kilda.

Matches we won without reported injuries:
* Gold Coast (R1) - Gold Coast had one injury.
* Hawthorn (R2) - no injuries to Hawthorn.
* Carlton (R11) - Carlton had four injuries.

Matches we won with injuries:
* Richmond (R5) [Amartey (hamstring)] - no injuries to Richmond (they had injuries in earlier matches).
* North Melbourne (R10) [Ladhams (ankle)] - no injuries to North Melbourne.

This is the nature of an injury-depleted season. Three of our losses (Port, Fremantle, St Kilda) were influenced by injuries to key players. Our opponents in those three games had none between them.

Does luck play a role here? Definitely, and it's correct for you to point that out. However, do not ignore the nature of that luck. A few lucky bounces or a few bad decisions in a game has much less influence in the game and future games than an unlucky injury.

Excellent analysis. Cut throat competition where injuries play a crucial part. We could easily be 7 and 5 in a season where the competition is very even although we were lucky with injuries to Carlton.

[chalbilto]

Spot on Thunder Shaker. Also after the Port game we lost Rampe resulting in 50% of the back-line being decimated.

[Auntie.Gerald]

Wow
Buller maybe straight in this weekend?

I could be so wrong that we went super light on talls last two years and we will be rescued by a tall mid season to right our path back to the finals?

[707]

I'll forgive the recruiters if Buller turns out as good as Van Rooyen!