2023 List Management

[BRS328]

BRS328

Tom De Koning was drafted with pick 30 in 2017. Tom De Koning (footywire.com)

Games: 2018:2, 2019:none, 2020:7, 2021:13, 2022:19, 2023:8. Total:49. Tom De Koning (afltables.com) Carlton has played 118 games in that time.

Is he really worth $800K? IMO, no.

I wouldn’t read to much into the $800K talk. It may well be the number for the first season, but a lot less over the 7 years. Clubs play games with this. If you recall Carlton paid Jack Martin $1 million for his first season when he came from the Gold Coast. What this does is insure the club losing the player gets an early round draft pick as compensation.

For the record Martin has proved to be a waste of money given he was at the time, and still is, injury prone. TDK on the other hand may be well worth the risk given his age and undoubted talent, provided, as I suspect, the salary long term will be more in line with reasonable expectations.

[Auntie.Gerald]

BRS
I tend agree re TDK and the $ sensationalising in the media

Tom De Koning - AFL Season 2022 Highlights - YouTube

The kid has massive upside and has been through the typical ups and downs of a super tall young fella easing into Snrs

He is about to start making his presence felt and could definitely help us be a better team.

If we sense we have our backline all covered and or we have our eyes on another trade but a value trade $ for our backline then TDK makes a lot of sense given he can play forward when needed but could be a very dominant Ruckman

Hmmmmm I don’t know where I stand with TDK - I just haven’t thought it through enough or watch him super close but on the surface I can see why he would be very attractive to the Swans at the right price and right trade

Maybe we do have a player in our squad who really wants to get back to Melbourne?

Maybe there are compromising factors we don’t know about as yet? That could nurture a good outcome for Carlton and the Swans vs the an unpalatable alternative ?

Or maybe it is just noise selling media eyeballs?

????

[Auntie.Gerald]

Just wondering if anyone else has noticed the injury list for the Pies this season?

Some fairly serious players in amongst that list and just as costly as our injury list ie 7 snt best 22 players missing for both teams

I wonder how the Pies have continued to function so effectively and win 11 games vs our 5 wins?

Is our list not deep as some believe it to be?

Did they Pies make sure leading into this season with their mix of trades and draft picks that they had a much deeper list?

Is there some learnings right here for our mix of talent acquisition and deeper list for 2024?

Charlie Dean Foot Season
Jamie Elliott Shoulder Test
Will Hoskin-Elliott Ankle Test
Jeremy Howe Forearm TBC
Nathan Kreuger Ankle TBC
Patrick Lipinski Shoulder Test
Beau McCreery Ankle TBC
Dan McStay Finger Test
Joe Richards Hamstring Test
Steele Sidebottom Knee 3-5 weeks

Nick Blakey Toe Test
Peter Ladhams Ankle TBC
Paddy McCartin Concussion Season
Tom McCartin Concussion TBC
Logan McDonald Ankle 3-5 weeks
Callum Mills Calf 1-2 weeks
Sam Reid Hamstring Season
Matt Roberts Knee 2-4 weeks
Marc Sheather Foot Season

[Jimitron5000]

I hadn't looked at that, but I think the main difference is the majority of our injured players were what I will call structural (ie key position players and rucks) and this has a much bigger impact than injuries to other types of player, such as half forward flankers and forward pockets.
It's a real issue if it's all players, like West Coast.

[Auntie.Gerald]

agree Jimi you need to weight these roles that are missing

BUT........is it 11 wins vs 5 wins that really would be the difference given we are halfway through the season?

would 11 wins vs 8 wins be fairer effort by us if the Pies can achieve 11 wins under adversity similar?

hmmm......a little bit to ponder........

i think the Pies squad has been up and about to achieve 11 wins with serious players missing.........a deep list or an over achieve?

i mean 7 players missing against Melbourne and they loose by 4 pts .......... that is an amazing effort

Melbournes defence is so bloody hard to break down and they counter super quick which is a nightmare

great effort and maybe i have underestimated our list somewhat and we are not as deep as i thought leading into the finals of 2022??

and I wonder why?

[liz]

a) You need to look at injuries across the season, not just at a point in time. Some of the players on that list have been available for almost all the first half of the season. Like Sidebottom. And Elliott.

b) You need to be careful with making assessments based on AFL injury lists at a midweek point in time because they include players who may play the following week. For example, Lipinski is on the list you quoted but he played yesterday.

c) Yes, Collingwood have experienced a "healthy" injury toll this season. Notwithstanding my observation in b) above, Cameron missed a big chunk of the season and for a few weeks they were also without Cox. The first week they were without both, they lost.

d) Yes, Collingwood have an older, more experienced, deeper squad than us.

e) The scoreboard says they lost yesterday by 4pts but it should have been by a whole lot more had Melbourne kicked straight.

f) Take Moore out of the Collingwood team and I wonder how they'd be going. Yes, Moore is a better player than either Tom McCartin or Dane Rampe but he kind of does on his own what Rampe and McCartin do for us - plays on the best key forward (some of the time, and can switch onto them when needed) and organises their defence. He's probably their most important player, not just for what he does directly but because he allows Daicos and others to run and gun in the way they do.

Just over a month ago, someone compared our injury list to Geelongs, and noted that Geelong were missing more players than we were. It was a valid observation. Geelong then proceeded to lose the next three games.

[i'm-uninformed2]

a) You need to look at injuries across the season, not just at a point in time. Some of the players on that list have been available for almost all the first half of the season. Like Sidebottom. And Elliott.
b) You need to be careful with making assessments based on AFL injury lists at a midweek point in time because they include players who may play the following week. For example, Lipinski is on the list you quoted but he played yesterday.
c) Yes, Collingwood have experienced a "healthy" injury toll this season. Notwithstanding my observation in b) above, Cameron missed a big chunk of the season and for a few weeks they were also without Cox. The first week they were without both, they lost.
d) Yes, Collingwood have an older, more experienced, deeper squad than us.
e) The scoreboard says they lost yesterday by 4pts but it should have been by a whole lot more had Melbourne kicked straight.
f) Take Moore out of the Collingwood team and I wonder how they'd be going. Yes, Moore is a better player than either Tom McCartin or Dane Rampe but he kind of does on his own what Rampe and McCartin do for us - plays on the best key forward (some of the time, and can switch onto them when needed) and organises their defence. He's probably their most important player, not just for what he does directly but because he allows Daicos and others to run and gun in the way they do.

Just over a month ago, someone compared our injury list to Geelongs, and noted that Geelong were missing more players than we were. It was a valid observation. Geelong then proceeded to lose the next three games.

Collingwood are enjoying a sweet spot with their list.

Their oldest players - Pendlebury, Sidebottom, Cox etc - are enjoying Indian summers the way Bud, Ramps, Hickey and even JPK did in 2021. Players that had extensive history of injury like Elliott and Moore have been able to get on the park.

Their mid aged players have peaked, and they've got some exciting youngsters - though bar Daicos, not truly elite.

Whereas we're largely at base camp with our list, with a few mid-aged players like Mills, Paps and Heeney not at their best this year due to injury - and older players fading off (Parker being the exception here).

But I do think our batch of 23 and unders are superb, and if they stay together will see us bounce back quickly, when coupled with some smart recruitment and Paps, Heeney and Mills still having a good five years.

[Ludwig]

As liz noted, Darcy Moore is the best key defender in the league. The Pies also have a pretty good #2 KPD in Nathan Murphy. The Swans, on the other hand, had their entire key defence gone in 1 game, without any competent backup.

The Pies have been playing a mixed forward line for years, with Brody Mihocek thge one constant kPF. One key forward is very playable, as Richmond showed in 2017 when they won the premiership. We've been Buddy focused up forward for 10 years. And this year we lost our top 2 next generation key forwards.

Collingwood added a lot of depth to their list in the off season, while we went back to the draft.

Drafting Arnold and Buller has put us on the right track to remedy a bad situation. With one or two good recruits post season, we could be back in the mix next year. We will have to get lucky though if we want to fill the void left by the loss of the McCartin brothers.

[Kafka's Ghost]

agree Jimi you need to weight these roles that are missing

BUT........is it 11 wins vs 5 wins that really would be the difference given we are halfway through the season?

would 11 wins vs 8 wins be fairer effort by us if the Pies can achieve 11 wins under adversity similar?

hmmm......a little bit to ponder........

i think the Pies squad has been up and about to achieve 11 wins with serious players missing.........a deep list or an over achieve?

i mean 7 players missing against Melbourne and they loose by 4 pts .......... that is an amazing effort

Melbournes defence is so bloody hard to break down and they counter super quick which is a nightmare

great effort and maybe i have underestimated our list somewhat and we are not as deep as i thought leading into the finals of 2022??

and I wonder why?

Melbourne dominated that game. The only thing keeping the Magpies in it was the shoddy goal kicking. Shoddy is actually something of an understatement. 8:18, with many of those set shots, is diabolical, and many other teams would have lost with that sort of conversion.


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[Thunder Shaker]

Melbourne dominated that game. The only thing keeping the Magpies in it was the shoddy goal kicking. Shoddy is actually something of an understatement. 8:18, with many of those set shots, is diabolical, and many other teams would have lost with that sort of conversion.

Like Carlton. 6.16, more scoring shots than Essendon 13.8 and lost by 34. (This equalled their record for biggest losses with more scoring shots. Their previous 34-point losses with more scoring shots were against Hawthorn in 1945 and Essendon in 1931.)

[Ruck'n'Roll]

There's be a lot of hype about Arnold and Buller, I've only seen one game so I've not formed an opinion yet - but jeez if both make it then the Swans 2023 Mid Season draft will go down as possible the greatest recruitment coup of all time.

[Blood Fever]

Let's wait to see if they play seniors first.

[Auntie.Gerald]

Some good pints Liz to weigh up all the data

Something I did forget was that we had a full team the Dees earlier this year less Hickey and we lost by 50pts

Pies had approx 7 best 22 players out and lost by 4 pts

Yes Melbourne kicked terribly but partly where the Pies shaped them to kick from

But either way……. It’s fair data to take into account when comparing two teams who were neck and neck into the finals last year and how they recruited in the off season…….and how they are delivering in 2023

Or not delivering

[Markwebbos]

Some good pints Liz to weigh up all the data

Something I did forget was that we had a full team the Dees earlier this year less Hickey and we lost by 50pts

Pies had approx 7 best 22 players out and lost by 4 pts

Yes Melbourne kicked terribly but partly where the Pies shaped them to kick from

But either way……. It’s fair data to take into account when comparing two teams who were neck and neck into the finals last year and how they recruited in the off season…….and how they are delivering in 2023

Or not delivering

AG you seem to be inferring that if we’d just traded in more players at the end of 2023 we’d be a top-4 side this year. I think that’s a gross oversimplification.

And id live to know who we should have grabbed that we didn’t?

[troyjones2525]

I fear that we will foolishly trade away our first round pick (or trade further back) in a supposedly very strong draft for key position players.

At this early stage, a player like O'Sullivan looks like he'd be a great selection for us! He's a versatile 198cm player from NSW and is a Swans supporter too!

He'd be a great pick for our current list demographic!

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