2024 List Management

[Ruck'n'Roll]

Surprised we didn't match for Cochran - wonder what that is all about. Hope it isn't one over the longer term we regret.

Time will tell whether passing on a Sydney boy like Cochran will be more like when we overlooked Luke Parks or when we overlooked Lenny Hayes.

[liz]

it pains me to say this, but I dont sisprect I will be going to another GF dinner in 2025 and I also think we will struggle to make the 8. still cant beleive the draft picks all small except for riak who has injusy problems. We had a choice with or 2 earlier picks to take 1 or 2 swimgmen in the mould of sam reid, matt whitlock and James Barratt. Whitlock came from the same area of northern vic as reid. Like Reid they have both played key back and forward. I agree that King next year might be a go but if we passed on cochrane and didnt select him at our 3rd pick when Collingwood sprouted thay wanted him what message does that send to academy boys.

a) What impact do you think one of those "swingmen" would have on our 2025 prospects?
b) Based on your tracking of Cochran's junior career, how do you assess his strengths, what he needs to work on and what position he might play at senior AFL level?

[lwjoyner]

we will not know now, but it could have provided a bit of relief to overburdened tall defender Tom Mc and perhaps Lewis M, the rest other than Nick B are mid size.

[lwjoyner]

i dont have first hand info re cochran, but draft central says his strngths are endurance (elite) intercept marking,mobility,rebounding,verasatility and vertical leap. He needs nrove,emt in composure and kicking on the run. Collingwood msu have seen something in him they have been sprouting him for a while now.

[dejavoodoo44]

A few thoughts on Max King and draft picks. Firstly on Max. He definitely has the potential to attract a high bid. He's lightning quick, moves well through traffic, is an excellent field kick and can take spectacular marks. Though it's probably still undetermined what his best position is. At the start of the year he was 191cm, which isn't quite key forward size, so he was playing mainly outside mid, with a bit of time inside and a bit time in the forward line. However, if he grows a few centimetres, then he could be a very exciting hard leading, high marking, straight kicking, key forward. Which could see him ranked at the very pointy end of the draft.

What might see him slide though, is that he's probably already missed a fair few games with concussion. I say probably, because he was ironed out while over the ball, in an early season academy match against Brisbane and didn't play for the academy again. It looked like concussion to me, but in the absence of information, it's possible that it might have been a shoulder or collar bone injury. He did play late in the season for the Cardiff Hawks and was selected for the AFL futures game. If you cue the footage below to 53min 50sec, you can see him taking, what I presume was the best mark of the Newcastle competition and the reason why he missed the futures game. Which did look like another concussion.

https://www.bartvsports.com.au/afl/240907-video-afl-hunter-central-coast-grand-final-cup-newcastle-city-v-cardiff-hawks/

Personally, if I had my way, I'd very tempted to play him in a couple of early academy games, just to make sure that he's up to the task, then tell him to go for a holiday for the rest of the season, while releasing the false statement that he picked up a nasty head knock in training. The reason being, is that I really think that AFL has screwed us over with the new bidding system.

I finally got around to doing some hypothetical numbers and I really didn't like what I saw. For instance, take the best case for the season, but worst case for bidding scenario. That is, if we somehow get over our demons and win the premiership. Without our draft position being blown out by silly compensation picks and other bids, we have picks 18, 36 and 54. In the new system, these are worth 836, 317 and 14 points, which give a total 1,167 points. The highest bid that those points can match is pick 10; which is 1,276, minus the now 10% discount, for a total 1,148 points. So, in that scenario, if a bid for an academy player comes in earlier than pick 10, we can't match it without going into deficit or previously trading out a decent player to get more points. In the just concluded system, pick 4 would have been able to be matched with around 100 points left over.

Perhaps a more likely ladder position for 2025, is that we drop off slightly and finish sixth. So in that case, our picks 13, 31 and 49 yield 1,595 points, which leaves pick 6 the highest pick able to be matched. If we were to drop out of the eight and finish tenth, then the points would add up to 2,038; which would cover pick 3, but still be short of the mark for 1 and 2.

So, I might use the sixth place finish to hypothesise further on what could happen next year. Currently we have King, Carmichael and Chamberlain all in the running to be first round selections. If King fires during the season, and attracts a bid of 6, 7 or 8, there's no way we could get Carmichael and Chamberlain, without trading out a quality player before the draft. Not only that, it would be a case of taking the one academy player with our first, second and third round picks, then having to take two players with fourth and fifth round picks. So, it'd be a case of King, plus something like picks 56 and 65. Which makes me wonder, if the original picks 13, 31 and 49 would actually offer better value? Therefore, it's possible that our academy develops three high quality players, through years of time, money and effort, and all three end up going to Victorian clubs.

Anyway, I suspect that the northern clubs have already made their displeasure known behind the scenes. So hopefully, scenarios like the one above, will clearly demonstrate how problematic the new system is and the AFL will rapidly come to its senses. Though I suspect, public outrage from northern clubs and their fans, might not influence them too much, but when Collingwood, Carlton or Geelong are denied the services of the next gun father/son, then the need for a few revisions will become apparent.

[liz]

we will not know now, but it could have provided a bit of relief to overburdened tall defender Tom Mc and perhaps Lewis M, the rest other than Nick B are mid size.

A newly drafted 18 or 19yo mid-draft tall would be better equipped to do that than any of Snell, Edwards, Hamling or Francis?

[KSAS]

Anyway, I suspect that the northern clubs have already made their displeasure known behind the scenes. So hopefully, scenarios like the one above, will clearly demonstrate how problematic the new system is and the AFL will rapidly come to its senses. Though I suspect, public outrage from northern clubs and their fans, might not influence them too much, but when Collingwood, Carlton or Geelong are denied the services of the next gun father/son, then the need for a few revisions will become apparent.

Thanks for the new bidding points system examples & how it will detrimentally impact on our Academy selections next year.

Hope alot of noise is made about the inadequacies of this new bidding system. As i"d posted earlier in this thread, it's unfair that the Northern Academies where clubs have heavily invested to develop players with no AFL pathways are under same rules as F/S who are lucky freebies from established AFL pathways.

Makes it worse that Premiers Brisbane were able to draft top F/S & Academy prospects when they would have no chance of doing so next year.

FWIW, i've curiously watched a few of these draft reviews rankings on YT & not surprisingly we were generally ranked in the bottom 4. Apart from Dattoli, they weren't particularly excited or familiar with the other players we had drafted. Says not much about the validity of these rankings without any of them having played an AFL game yet! Best when these are done in retrospect after a few years.

[Ludwig]

Maybe the solution to next year's draft points shortage is that Chad is traded to WA team. That should get us enough points to cover all our highly rated prospects. Perhaps the 'problem' will be taken out of our hands.

[dejavoodoo44]

Maybe the solution to next year's draft points shortage is that Chad is traded to WA team. That should get us enough points to cover all our highly rated prospects. Perhaps the 'problem' will be taken out of our hands.

Yes, that's who I was mainly thinking of when I mentioned "trading out a quality player before the draft". If we got two first round picks for Warner, then we should get all three academy prospects. But I do think that's a solution to a problem that shouldn't exist.

[Thunder Shaker]

Rookie Me has a list of 25 draft prospects for 2025.

Academy players mentioned:

Brisbane Lions: Daniel Annable
Gold Coast Suns: Beau Addinsall, Dylan Patterson, Zeke Uwland, Kalani White, Jai Murray
GWS Giants: none
Sydney Swans: Lachlan Carmichael, Noah Chamberlain, Max King
NGA Academies: Wesley Walley, Koby Evans
Father-son: Thomas McGuane (Collingwood), Kalani White (Melbourne), Charlie Banfield (West Coast Eagles)
A few players also mentioned from the National Academy.

Note: Kalani White is in the Suns Academy and is also eligible to join Melbourne as a father-son selection.

[dejavoodoo44]

Thanks for the new bidding points system examples & how it will detrimentally impact on our Academy selections next year.

Hope alot of noise is made about the inadequacies of this new bidding system. As i"d posted earlier in this thread, it's unfair that the Northern Academies where clubs have heavily invested to develop players with no AFL pathways are under same rules as F/S who are lucky freebies from established AFL pathways.

Makes it worse that Premiers Brisbane were able to draft top F/S & Academy prospects when they would have no chance of doing so next year.

FWIW, i've curiously watched a few of these draft reviews rankings on YT & not surprisingly we were generally ranked in the bottom 4. Apart from Dattoli, they weren't particularly excited or familiar with the other players we had drafted. Says not much about the validity of these rankings without any of them having played an AFL game yet! Best when these are done in retrospect after a few years.

Yes, it's ridiculous that people want to rank drafts before any games are played. And it's scandalous that F/S and NGA selections are now treated by the AFL, as having exactly the same merit as northern academy selections, when no work goes into F/S selections, minimal work goes into NGAs and a huge amount of work goes into academy selections.

And the future F/S and academy selections, give an extra bit of interest to this Rookie Me article on their best 25 prospects for 2025.

https://central.rookieme.com/afl/2024/11/22/25-in-2025-a-look-ahead-to-next-years-top-prospects/

Our trio of Carmichael, Chamberlain and King make the list. There's also four Suns on the list. Which might be a problem for them, but they do have the first round picks of Collingwood and Port. So, depending on how bids come and their ladder position, they'll probably be able to take three of those players. Since one of those, Kalani White, is eligible for Melbourne as a F/S, it's probable that he might nominate for the Demons instead. Although, since Melbourne don't have a 2025 first round pick, they currently can only cover late first round onwards.

It seems that the most highly rated F/S is Thomas McGuane, who's the son of Mick McGuane. Since the Suns have Collingwood's first rounder, they currently can't match a first round bid. So, hopefully it stays that way, to generate a bit of outrage.

[Thunder Shaker]

It seems that the most highly rated F/S is Thomas McGuane, who's the son of Mick McGuane. Since the Suns have Collingwood's first rounder, they currently can't match a first round bid. So, hopefully it stays that way, to generate a bit of outrage.

The first time a Victorian club loses a father-son player to the bidding system, the howls of fist-shaking outrage will be heard loudly in the AFL world. Meanwhile, Josh Dunkley was drafted by the Bulldogs and is currently playing for the Lions, despite being a potential father-son player for Sydney.

[rb4x]

Just for the heck off it I looked up Ben Paton on the Saints site. 26yo medium defender at 187cm from North Albury. Recovered from broken leg and this year a ruptured tendon. Below average in all stats on front page, i.e. disposals, kicks, tackles, marks, handballs and meters gained. Why did we recruit him when he is not good enough for the Saints and we have also taken Bice, Andrew, and Leidler for a similar role as well as retaining Francis and Hamling. In my view we have the least need for an injury prone medium defender of any of the positions on our list. Does anybody disagree?

[dejavoodoo44]

Just for the heck off it I looked up Ben Paton on the Saints site. 26yo medium defender at 187cm from North Albury. Recovered from broken leg and this year a ruptured tendon. Below average in all stats on front page, i.e. disposals, kicks, tackles, marks, handballs and meters gained. Why did we recruit him when he is not good enough for the Saints and we have also taken Bice, Andrew, and Leidler for a similar role as well as retaining Francis and Hamling. In my view we have the least need for an injury prone medium defender of any of the positions on our list. Does anybody disagree?

Apparently he was a quality player before being injured, so perhaps we're taking a punt on him recapturing that form? That being said, my preference probably would have been to take a punt on an athletic key position player, who might need a couple of seasons to develop. Maybe the plan is to revert Roberts back to being an inside mid, as well playing Mills largely inside as well? So, with Rampe aging, then perhaps it was decided that a bit more medium defender depth was needed.

[UUaswan]

I see chris keane is still bragging about us having a good draft even when we did not draft for our immediate needs. Longmire missing from both nights does this mean anything. I think its time to revamp our recruiting team and get some football (not maths) knowledge back.

I'd be staggered if something isn't up with Horse ?
???????
Featured once in a month on the Facebook feed and that was a picture for Skiltons Bday

Unsighted why we added 6+ players ? Have I missed something