ROK - Re signs with swans for 4 years. (Confirmed)

[Legs Akimbo]

To put today's outcomes in context, % of possible games (roughly) played for their cohort by first round draftees since 1994. BEWARE OF PICK 6!

1 75%
2 73%
3 66%
4 47%
5 61%
6 25%
7 50%
8 48%
9 33%
10 49%
11 45%
12 40%
13 50%
14 35%
15 37%
16 42%

Here is the pick 6 list

Mitchell Thorp
Beau Dowler
Tom Williams
Kepler Bradley
Steven Salopek
Ashley Sampi
Dylan Smith
Damian Cupido
Murray Vance
James Walker
John Rombotis
Daniel Healy
Robert McMahon

Here are the pick 16 list

Mitchell Brown
Richard Douglas
Adam Pattison
Josh Willoughby
Stephen Gilham
Rick Ladson
Scott Thompson
David Haynes
Brett Burton
Ben Wolton
Pat Steinfort
Shane Clayton
Adam Yze

...and pick 11 list

Andrejs Everitt
Shaun Higgins
Adam Thomson
Beau Waters
Jason Winderlich
Richard Cole
Trent Sporn
Darren Glass
Lenny Hayes
Jason Saddington
Brent Grgic
Don Cockatoo-Collins
Damien Ryan

[Legs Akimbo]

More for stat heads. Some measures of variation.

e.g. for pick 6, average % potential is 25% of games played with two thirds playing between 2% and 48% of games played. Accepting pick 6 as an outlier, the story seems to be high reliability for top-3 picks, but consistent decreases in performance of picks after that. i.e. the draft position is a pretty good guide of what will happen probabilistically, the rank performance approximates the pick number.

Too early to say yet but it does seem that for all draft picks, the proportion of possible games played has been increasing (i.e. clubs are getting better at drafting).

draft pick mean stdev cv rank
1 75% 21% 0.28 1
2 73% 22% 0.31 2
3 66% 25% 0.38 3
4 47% 33% 0.70 9
5 61% 30% 0.50 4
6 25% 23% 0.92 16
7 50% 36% 0.72 5
8 48% 35% 0.72 8
9 33% 30% 0.88 15
10 49% 26% 0.54 7
11 45% 24% 0.54 10
12 40% 30% 0.74 12
13 50% 32% 0.65 6
14 35% 35% 0.99 14
15 37% 33% 0.92 13
16 42% 31% 0.74 11

Last word in draft analysis to follow next few weeks (time permitting).

[barryswan]

The possibility of Port or Essendon being interested in him if he goes into the preseason is fantastic. If true I can see some light at the end of the tunnel with at least a decent offer from Hawthorn or if true Carlton or at the worst O'Keefe trying to mend relations for a return to the Swannies.

OK back to reality and work for me!

[Wardy]

I also wonder if it turns out that he stays whether he will retain his position in the Leadership group?

[AussieAnge]

I also wonder if it turns out that he stays whether he will retain his position in the Leadership group?

I doubt it and he can probably kiss goodbye to any thoughts of captaincy.

[Wardy]

I doubt it and he can probably kiss goodbye to any thoughts of captaincy.

I was thinking that as well - just putting it out there really - I just heard on the 7.30 news that its now Carlton and Collingwood - so whats it to be?

I reckon he will end up at Freo!

[mcs]

I think the captaincy issue might be the seed of the overall discontent from O'Keefe. I was suprised when bolton was promoted over him at the start of the year, and maybe that peeved him off a bit and the last few weeks it has all come to a head. Just a thought.

I reckon he will end up somewhere today, cant see him risking it in the PSD. If he doesnt, he will re sign with us I expect

[ugg]

Ryan O'Keefe trade deal on brink of collapse | The Australian

[hammo]

I also wonder if it turns out that he stays whether he will retain his position in the Leadership group?

No chance. ROK doesn't want to be there and clearly thinks his best chances of premiership glory lie elsewhere.

As for today, it's interesting that Hawthorn have put "all but 8" players on the table for trade to get O'Keefe. If more than a dozen premiership players doesn't interest the 15 other clubs in trade week then nothing will. It could still be a busy day.

"We recognise that Ryan is worth pick 16, but we've made a philosophical decision as a football club that we don't want our first selection in the draft to be pick 34," Hawthorn list and recruitment manager Chris Pelchen said. "If we could trade a player out for another pick, say, something in the low 20s, then we would give up 16 for Ryan, but to this point we haven't been able to do that."

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24472573-5012432,00.html

[Jeffers1984]

Ryan O'Keefe trade deal on brink of collapse | The Australian

Hawthorn is interested in packaging up its second round selection, pick 34, with a player, possibly Beau Dowler or Mitch Thorp, but Sydney is understood to want pick 16 to grease the wheels of another deal.

Like i said yesterday, i would accept 34 and Thorp if Whorethorn are so reluctant with 16. Or if they have a change of heart i would love 16 + Thorp for ROK + 30.

[NMWBloods]

We were after Jordan Lewis

O'Keefe's deal hits the wall - realfooty.com.au

But when the Swans nominated Lewis, who was not on the list of untouchables, the Hawks were quick to add him to that group and decline the deal.

@@@@ing pricks!

[ugg]

@@@@ing pricks!

Makes you wonder why they bothered having a list in the first place.

Some more info here:
Hawthorn puts only eight players off-limits for Ryan O'Keefe | Herald Sun

[Margie]

Sounds like Hawthorn is keeping the deal dangling so no-one else can have him.

[AnnieH]

Sounds like Hawthorn is keeping the deal dangling so no-one else can have him.

See ... this is why no one likes to deal with the poos and wees.

[Xie Shan]

To put today's outcomes in context, % of possible games (roughly) played for their cohort by first round draftees since 1994. BEWARE OF PICK 6!

Excellent work Legs. Interesting Salopek was taken at #6, a couple of picks after McVeigh IIRC. I recall at the time there was debate about whether we should have taken McVeigh or Salopek with our first pick in that year. I think that question has been decisively answered this season

I wonder how much the reliability of top picks will have to increase before the likely benefits of using the draft begin to exceed those from recruiting mature-age/ready-made players from other clubs/codes/countries. Some might argue we've already reached this point, but it would appear the draft can still be something of a lottery beyond the first handful of picks or so, and a lot still depends on how good clubs are at identifying young talent.

I guess each club/coach has their own assessment of the relative probability of success for each trading strategy. Not hard to guess which one Roos favours!!