ROK - Re signs with swans for 4 years. (Confirmed)

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  • Legs Akimbo
    Grand Poobah
    • Apr 2005
    • 2809

    To put today's outcomes in context, % of possible games (roughly) played for their cohort by first round draftees since 1994. BEWARE OF PICK 6!

    1 75%
    2 73%
    3 66%
    4 47%
    5 61%
    6 25%
    7 50%
    8 48%
    9 33%
    10 49%
    11 45%
    12 40%
    13 50%
    14 35%
    15 37%
    16 42%

    Here is the pick 6 list

    Mitchell Thorp
    Beau Dowler
    Tom Williams
    Kepler Bradley
    Steven Salopek
    Ashley Sampi
    Dylan Smith
    Damian Cupido
    Murray Vance
    James Walker
    John Rombotis
    Daniel Healy
    Robert McMahon

    Here are the pick 16 list

    Mitchell Brown
    Richard Douglas
    Adam Pattison
    Josh Willoughby
    Stephen Gilham
    Rick Ladson
    Scott Thompson
    David Haynes
    Brett Burton
    Ben Wolton
    Pat Steinfort
    Shane Clayton
    Adam Yze

    ...and pick 11 list

    Andrejs Everitt
    Shaun Higgins
    Adam Thomson
    Beau Waters
    Jason Winderlich
    Richard Cole
    Trent Sporn
    Darren Glass
    Lenny Hayes
    Jason Saddington
    Brent Grgic
    Don Cockatoo-Collins
    Damien Ryan
    He had observed that people who did lie were, on the whole, more resourceful and ambitious and successful than people who did not lie.

    Comment

    • Legs Akimbo
      Grand Poobah
      • Apr 2005
      • 2809

      More for stat heads. Some measures of variation.

      e.g. for pick 6, average % potential is 25% of games played with two thirds playing between 2% and 48% of games played. Accepting pick 6 as an outlier, the story seems to be high reliability for top-3 picks, but consistent decreases in performance of picks after that. i.e. the draft position is a pretty good guide of what will happen probabilistically, the rank performance approximates the pick number.

      Too early to say yet but it does seem that for all draft picks, the proportion of possible games played has been increasing (i.e. clubs are getting better at drafting).

      draft pick mean stdev cv rank
      1 75% 21% 0.28 1
      2 73% 22% 0.31 2
      3 66% 25% 0.38 3
      4 47% 33% 0.70 9
      5 61% 30% 0.50 4
      6 25% 23% 0.92 16
      7 50% 36% 0.72 5
      8 48% 35% 0.72 8
      9 33% 30% 0.88 15
      10 49% 26% 0.54 7
      11 45% 24% 0.54 10
      12 40% 30% 0.74 12
      13 50% 32% 0.65 6
      14 35% 35% 0.99 14
      15 37% 33% 0.92 13
      16 42% 31% 0.74 11
      Last word in draft analysis to follow next few weeks (time permitting).
      Last edited by Legs Akimbo; 10 October 2008, 05:00 AM.
      He had observed that people who did lie were, on the whole, more resourceful and ambitious and successful than people who did not lie.

      Comment

      • barryswan
        On the Rookie List
        • Oct 2008
        • 17

        The possibility of Port or Essendon being interested in him if he goes into the preseason is fantastic. If true I can see some light at the end of the tunnel with at least a decent offer from Hawthorn or if true Carlton or at the worst O'Keefe trying to mend relations for a return to the Swannies.

        OK back to reality and work for me!

        Comment

        • Wardy
          The old Boiler!
          • Sep 2003
          • 6676

          I also wonder if it turns out that he stays whether he will retain his position in the Leadership group?
          I used to be indecisive, but now I'm not so sure..................
          Chickens drink - but they don't pee!
          AGE IS ONLY IMPORTANT FOR TWO THINGS - WINE & CHEESE!

          Comment

          • AussieAnge
            On the Rookie List
            • Sep 2003
            • 1057

            Originally posted by Wardy
            I also wonder if it turns out that he stays whether he will retain his position in the Leadership group?
            I doubt it and he can probably kiss goodbye to any thoughts of captaincy.
            Bring it on!

            Comment

            • Wardy
              The old Boiler!
              • Sep 2003
              • 6676

              Originally posted by AussieAnge
              I doubt it and he can probably kiss goodbye to any thoughts of captaincy.
              I was thinking that as well - just putting it out there really - I just heard on the 7.30 news that its now Carlton and Collingwood - so whats it to be?

              I reckon he will end up at Freo!
              I used to be indecisive, but now I'm not so sure..................
              Chickens drink - but they don't pee!
              AGE IS ONLY IMPORTANT FOR TWO THINGS - WINE & CHEESE!

              Comment

              • mcs
                Travelling Swannie!!
                • Jul 2007
                • 8166

                I think the captaincy issue might be the seed of the overall discontent from O'Keefe. I was suprised when bolton was promoted over him at the start of the year, and maybe that peeved him off a bit and the last few weeks it has all come to a head. Just a thought.

                I reckon he will end up somewhere today, cant see him risking it in the PSD. If he doesnt, he will re sign with us I expect
                "You get the feeling that like Monty Python's Black Knight, the Swans would regard amputation as merely a flesh wound."

                Comment

                • ugg
                  Can you feel it?
                  Site Admin
                  • Jan 2003
                  • 15970

                  Ryan O'Keefe trade deal on brink of collapse | The Australian
                  Reserves live updates (Twitter)
                  Reserves WIKI -
                  Top Goalkickers| Best Votegetters

                  Comment

                  • hammo
                    Veterans List
                    • Jul 2003
                    • 5554

                    Originally posted by Wardy
                    I also wonder if it turns out that he stays whether he will retain his position in the Leadership group?
                    No chance. ROK doesn't want to be there and clearly thinks his best chances of premiership glory lie elsewhere.

                    As for today, it's interesting that Hawthorn have put "all but 8" players on the table for trade to get O'Keefe. If more than a dozen premiership players doesn't interest the 15 other clubs in trade week then nothing will. It could still be a busy day.

                    "We recognise that Ryan is worth pick 16, but we've made a philosophical decision as a football club that we don't want our first selection in the draft to be pick 34," Hawthorn list and recruitment manager Chris Pelchen said. "If we could trade a player out for another pick, say, something in the low 20s, then we would give up 16 for Ryan, but to this point we haven't been able to do that."
                    Last edited by hammo; 10 October 2008, 08:11 AM.
                    "As everyone knows our style of football is defensive and unattractive, and as such I have completely forgotten how to mark or kick over the years" - Brett Kirk

                    Comment

                    • Jeffers1984
                      Veterans List
                      • Jan 2003
                      • 4564

                      Hawthorn is interested in packaging up its second round selection, pick 34, with a player, possibly Beau Dowler or Mitch Thorp, but Sydney is understood to want pick 16 to grease the wheels of another deal.
                      Like i said yesterday, i would accept 34 and Thorp if Whorethorn are so reluctant with 16. Or if they have a change of heart i would love 16 + Thorp for ROK + 30.
                      Official Driver Of The "Who Gives A @@@@ As The Player Will Get Delisted Anyway" Bandwagon.

                      Comment

                      • NMWBloods
                        Taking Refuge!!
                        • Jan 2003
                        • 15819

                        Originally posted by ugg
                        But when the Swans nominated Lewis, who was not on the list of untouchables, the Hawks were quick to add him to that group and decline the deal.
                        @@@@ing pricks!
                        Captain Logic is not steering this tugboat.

                        "[T]here are things that matter more and he's reading and thinking about them: heaven, reincarnation. Life and death are the only things that are truly a matter of life and death. Not football."

                        Comment

                        • ugg
                          Can you feel it?
                          Site Admin
                          • Jan 2003
                          • 15970

                          Originally posted by NMWBloods
                          @@@@ing pricks!
                          Makes you wonder why they bothered having a list in the first place.

                          Some more info here:
                          Hawthorn puts only eight players off-limits for Ryan O'Keefe | Herald Sun
                          Reserves live updates (Twitter)
                          Reserves WIKI -
                          Top Goalkickers| Best Votegetters

                          Comment

                          • Margie
                            Regular in the Side
                            • Sep 2003
                            • 800

                            Sounds like Hawthorn is keeping the deal dangling so no-one else can have him.

                            Comment

                            • AnnieH
                              RWOs Black Sheep
                              • Aug 2006
                              • 11332

                              Originally posted by Margie
                              Sounds like Hawthorn is keeping the deal dangling so no-one else can have him.
                              See ... this is why no one likes to deal with the poos and wees.
                              Wild speculation, unsubstantiated rumours, silly jokes and opposition delight in another's failures is what makes an internet forum fun.
                              Blessed are the cracked for they are the ones who let in the light.

                              Comment

                              • Xie Shan
                                Senior Player
                                • Jan 2003
                                • 2929

                                Originally posted by Legs Akimbo
                                To put today's outcomes in context, % of possible games (roughly) played for their cohort by first round draftees since 1994. BEWARE OF PICK 6!
                                Excellent work Legs. Interesting Salopek was taken at #6, a couple of picks after McVeigh IIRC. I recall at the time there was debate about whether we should have taken McVeigh or Salopek with our first pick in that year. I think that question has been decisively answered this season

                                I wonder how much the reliability of top picks will have to increase before the likely benefits of using the draft begin to exceed those from recruiting mature-age/ready-made players from other clubs/codes/countries. Some might argue we've already reached this point, but it would appear the draft can still be something of a lottery beyond the first handful of picks or so, and a lot still depends on how good clubs are at identifying young talent.

                                I guess each club/coach has their own assessment of the relative probability of success for each trading strategy. Not hard to guess which one Roos favours!!

                                Comment

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