2016 trading and drafting (merged thread)

[bungwahl]

Why does everyone think that we'll go after Logue with our pick 9?

It's known that Sydney have an interest in him and would make sense as to why we were so keen to move up the draft in to the top 10 - to get a pick before WCE at 12.

[Mug Punter]

The class of 2016 was always weaker. In fact the class of 2017 usually pumped them when the teams played trial games or practice games at training.

Having said that the Swans are investing in Sydney (unlike GWS). The NSW junior comps are significantly lower in standard and numbers than similar comps in other states. The academy does a fantastic job and will produce a Mills or Heeney every few years, but for the most part it will contribute to the slow growth of our great game at the grassroots level in NSW.

Other important initiatives such as the Sydney Independent Schools Comp will also gradually raise the standard in NSW. In some ways this comp is just as important as the academies given the majority of elite AFL players go through the private school system.

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In addition, I also think the Victorians have their heads firmly up their arses and choose not to take much interest in anyone outside of the TAC cup.

A post by someone with a kid in the Academy system that knows what he is talking about.

The growth in standard from the Sydney academy will increase markedly in the next few years so that cheap shot by barry is pretty lame. GWS will be forced to invest in western Sydney and Canberra by taking away areas like Albury and Mildura that should never have been in their zone from a development zone, and if at all only temporarily until Western Sydney comes online.

GWS' lack of investment in their back yard will come back and bite them

[Auntie.Gerald]

our track record is developing Key Defenders not taking them in the top 20

Ted Richards - developed from a wing HBF player to a Key defender

Grundy - developed from a CHF to a Key Defender

Rampe - great example

AA - late pick slowly developed

Talia - ? we will see but brought in cheap

[Mug Punter]

I accept that that the Swans Academy has a head start on GWS in Sydney because the traditionally strong areas in Sydney (North Shore, Hills, Eastern Suburbs, The Shire) are in the Swans zone. Not that areas like Parramatta and Campbelltown haven't produced good footballers I might add.

Having said that GWS need to start developing kids in their own backyard and the fact that they haven't produced ONE player from Sydney in five years is not great. They're not a new club anymore so - they deserve the generosity of Albury and Mildura in the short to medium term but surely by 2022 (their 10 year anniversary) they shouldn't need that and they should be producing players from the fastest growing urban area in Australia.

Think about it, the idea of a kid from Albury who has done years 11 and 12 at Geelong Grammar (Setterfield) as a "GWS Boy" is pretty lame in terms of GWS contributing meaningfully to his football development. It will be nipped back by the AFL and so it should be

[Mug Punter]

Phantom Draft

No.	Club	@	@
1	ESS	Hugh McCluggage	@
2	GWS	Andrew McGrath	@
3	BL	Ben Ainsworth	@
4	GCFC	Jack Bowes	@
5	CARL	Sam Petrevski-Seton	Could take Brodie and SPS goes to GC
6	GCFC	Will Brodie	@
7	FREM	Tim English	@
8	GCFC	Jack Scrimshaw	Most likely to keep him away from Swans
9	SYD	Griffin Logue	Probably the one we were after.
10	GCFC	Jarrod Berry	Good Alternative if we don't take Logue
11	NMFC	Tim Taranto	Great get by NM at this pick
12	WC	Sam Powell-Pepper	Best WA player left in draft
13	ADEL	Oliver Florent	Best midfielder available
14	PORT	Todd Marshall	Port need KPPs
15	GWS	Will Setterfield	Matched bid for academy player
16	BL	Josh Battle	Best pick for BL at this stage. Still have 21 & 22
17	PORT	Will Hawyward	Probably would prefer KPD, but will get one later
18	WB	Daniel Venables	Best available player (maybe)
19	SYD	Jordan Gallucci	The next 2 are in the mix. Hard to call.
20	ESS	Alex Witherden	@
21	BL	Jy Sympkin	@
22	BL	Cedric Cox	@
23	STK	Jonty Scharenberg	@
24	GEEL	Patrick Kerr	@
25	CARL	Shai Bolton	@
26	WB	Brennan Cox	@
27	RICH	Jordan Ridley	@
28	COLL	Callum Brown	@
29	ESS	Josh Rotham	@
30	PORT	Alex Villis

Seems sound, I'll be interested to refer back to this on draft night and I'd take Logue and Galluci but I fear he'll be gone by 19

[Mug Punter]

Stop worrying about big bad GWS, and put more effort into why our academy zone is not delivering in 2016.

You clearly don't have any understanding of the local AFL landscape in Sydney barry.

It takes time. At the moment kids like Mills and Heeney are outliers but in 5-10 years with the GPS and CAS school comps having full comps at all age groups (Shore have more AFL players now than rugby which is an astounding stat) the Swans Academy will produce regular first rounders

[Ludwig]

The Sydney metropolitan area has been poor for producing AFL players given the population base. It will take quite a few years to see if the academy programs are significantly growing the number of high level players. Queensland seem to be doing well considering they are also a rugby state and have a much smaller population base. They have another good crop coming next year. Here are 2 big names:

Connor Ballenden
Key Position Forwad (University of Queensland/Queensland)
29/03/1999 | 198cm | 95kg
One of the best key forwards in the 2017 draft will have a massive price tag if he plays as well as he has so far this year. Ballenden has shown real strength up forward this year, including two goals and nine marks in the Queensland trial match against Vic Country earlier in the year. Ballenden was superb in the Under 16 championships last year, winning the Queensland MVP kicking six goals for the carnival. A five-goal haul in the Under 18 championships against Tasmania this year ensured his selection in the Allies squad. Ballenden takes the ball out in front of his body using his body to his advantage. Ballenden?s set shot technique is good and he works hard on the lead. Ballenden has all the potential to being the a top five selection in 2017. Ballenden is a member of the Brisbane Lions academy and should make a dynamic duo with Josh Schache in years to come.


Brayden Crossley
Ruckman (Labrador/Queensland)
16/08/1999 | 198cm | 100kg
Gold Coast Suns academy member Brayden Crossley is one of the best talls in the 2017 crop. Crossley is predominantly a ruckman, but does have the capabilities to play forward. A strong Under 16 championship last year saw him just miss out on AFL Academy selection, after kicking four goals and being named in the best in all games. Crossley also become the NEAFL Rising Star in Round 7 this year, collecting 21 disposals and 17 hit-outs. Crossley is a tough and skillful ruckman who has many traits needed to be drafted, after starting 2016 well.

This is why I can't see GC taking a KPP or ruckman in this draft. Once Ballenden comes in they can move Sam Day to defence. They will have Lynch, Ballenden and Peter Wright in a giant forward line.

GC will do very well in this draft with 5 top notch players. Brisbane seem headed for an excellent draft as well. In addition to their 1st 4 picks inside the top 22, the can add Jacob Allison and perhaps another academy player. GC have 3 second round picks next year, all probably inside pick 30, although one will likely go to pay the deficit on Brad Scheer. Brisbane look headed for 2 top 10 picks with PA 1st rounder next year.

Both Queensland clubs could be moving up the ladder quite rapidly, although probably not next year. They just need to keep their players from leaving.

[Ludwig]

Seems sound, I'll be interested to refer back to this on draft night and I'd take Logue and Galluci but I fear he'll be gone by 19

It's very hard to know how those late 1st round picks will fall. But the point is that if PA and WB decide to take Gallucci and Simpkin instead of the ones I have, then Hayward and Venables are available to us at 19. So however you mix things up there will good players for the pickings.

I think the players I have listed at 8-11 are a small cut about the next group. Excluding Todd Marshall and the GWS picks, the next 7 or 8 are all quite close in the talent they've shown and only the future will tell how they should be ranked. And having a few coming back from injury and not testing in the combine makes it all that much harder to judge.

[rb4x]

Except Ballenden is Brisbane Lions Academy not Gold Coast.

[Ludwig]

Except Ballenden is Brisbane Lions Academy not Gold Coast.

Good pick up. Bad mistake by me. I have to rethink my phantom draft now. Brisbane probably won't take Josh Battle then and he slips beyond the 1st round.

It's impossible to know where Todd Marshall will go. Probably the hardest call in the 1st round. Port Adelaide are also a difficult call because they seem to need KPPs, but there aren't many in this draft. And they haven't had a 1st round pick in the past 3 years.

[bloodspirit]

Jake Barrett has been delisted by GWS: Talented Giant on the table as a free agent - AFL.com.au. Even though they are likely to rookie list him if they get the chance, surely someone will take him. He would be great depth for us and given that he is facing rookie listing he might be ok with a minimum wage if he gets a spot on the senior list. Are we better off saving the spot for someone who is not another inside mid? I think he's too good to let pass at this price. He's got great running ability, great at tackling, only 20 years old and is a (relatively) local product - from Temora and already lives in Sydney. I hate to say it, because it feels disloyal, but I think he is similar to but a little better than Foote. What do others think?

The problem is, we want to take 4 picks at the draft and we have already upgraded 4 rookies so either we would have to take one less at the draft (somehow can't see that happening) or we increase our list by one. Not sure why this has to be such a problem.

Is it possible/likely the Giants deliberately held off delisting Barrett until we had upgraded Foote, and other clubs presumably have gone further along settling their lists and so have less flexibility to pick Barrett up?

[Ludwig]

I rate Barrett very highly. I wish we held off on elevating Marsh. I would prefer to have Barrett on our senior list. But he would still face a struggle to get senior games because of the strength of our midfield. He would do well at a club like Richmond or Carlton that could use a hard edged inside mid and would probably be a starter at those clubs. Probably the best of the DFAs so far.

[bloodspirit]

Good pick up. Bad mistake by me. I have to rethink my phantom draft now. Brisbane probably won't take Josh Battle then and he slips beyond the 1st round.

He won't slip past the first round if we take him at 19. Should we? We don't really have any KPFs outside our best 22, especially with X and Abe gone. The nearest we have is Towers. We probably have more need for a Battle (or Marshall if he were still available) than we do for a Gallucci/Simpkin/Witherden/Venables.

[Mug Punter]

The Sydney metropolitan area has been poor for producing AFL players given the population base. It will take quite a few years to see if the academy programs are significantly growing the number of high level players. Queensland seem to be doing well considering they are also a rugby state and have a much smaller population base. They have another good crop coming next year. Here are 2 big names:



This is why I can't see GC taking a KPP or ruckman in this draft. Once Ballenden comes in they can move Sam Day to defence. They will have Lynch, Ballenden and Peter Wright in a giant forward line.

GC will do very well in this draft with 5 top notch players. Brisbane seem headed for an excellent draft as well. In addition to their 1st 4 picks inside the top 22, the can add Jacob Allison and perhaps another academy player. GC have 3 second round picks next year, all probably inside pick 30, although one will likely go to pay the deficit on Brad Scheer. Brisbane look headed for 2 top 10 picks with PA 1st rounder next year.

Both Queensland clubs could be moving up the ladder quite rapidly, although probably not next year. They just need to keep their players from leaving.

Queensland has a much better historical record of producing decent AFL players than Sydney (Dunstall and Reiwoldt being two elite examples). And the local comp up there has traditionally been much stronger than the SFL with lots of cash being thrown about. Not sure why that is the case but suspect it has a lot to do with Victorian migration to the Sunshine State over the generations.

Having said that I think that Sydney has more upside, especially with the CAS/GPS comps coming on board. Those kids will play for their school on Saturdays and their clubs on Sundays and from a socio-economic point of view most of those kids will be from Swans territory so we get another free kick v GWS.

But GWS has a massive catchment area in terms of young families and the crowds at SS are pretty encouraging (lots of kids). They're being really really silly if they ignore their Sydney area and rely on the Murray border long term and I can't see them being that na?ve that their generous concessions will last forever.

The next few years will be critical, I think that if there isn't *some* representation in the U16 NSW/ACT rep teams from Western Sydney by 2018 then they will have failed in their responsibility to grow the game but having said that some of the trials at younger age groups (U13,14) show some pretty encouraging signs for the GWS Western Sydney squads. I guess only time will tell.

I agree re Brisbane though they have to keep Schache. Him, Ballenden and Hipwood could certainly provide the key forwards for a decade to come. They'll get a good pick at 3 this year, Brodie I suspect, but as usual keeping him will be the issue. What they do with 16,21 and 22 will be interesting and then they'll get Jacob Allison as F/S. Their recent trading has been appalling and I really can see their only option is going to the draft often and deep. They must have been tempted to trade Pick 3 for a couple of later first rounders but I guess that would have been seen as lacking in ambition. Of course the Lions' problems run a lot deeper than their list - unlike the Suns post Comm Games their training facilities are appalling and they seem to have chronic financial issues. The NRL is so entrenched up there and interest in the AFL is so passing that I really worry for that club.

As with all the Northern clubs, getting a homegrown list that can compete asap must be their priority and it's their only chance reallt.

[Mug Punter]

It's very hard to know how those late 1st round picks will fall. But the point is that if PA and WB decide to take Gallucci and Simpkin instead of the ones I have, then Hayward and Venables are available to us at 19. So however you mix things up there will good players for the pickings.

I think the players I have listed at 8-11 are a small cut about the next group. Excluding Todd Marshall and the GWS picks, the next 7 or 8 are all quite close in the talent they've shown and only the future will tell how they should be ranked. And having a few coming back from injury and not testing in the combine makes it all that much harder to judge.

Pretty impressive research Ludwig. I have a feeling Gold Coast will take English at 6, I think he is a freakish talent and whilst they have good talls already he is so versatile. That would leave SPS at 7 for Freo so it the Gold Coast pick at 8 that is vital though tbh I'd take anyone you've got from 8-11.

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Jake Barrett has been delisted by GWS: Talented Giant on the table as a free agent - AFL.com.au. Even though they are likely to rookie list him if they get the chance, surely someone will take him. He would be great depth for us and given that he is facing rookie listing he might be ok with a minimum wage if he gets a spot on the senior list. Are we better off saving the spot for someone who is not another inside mid? I think he's too good to let pass at this price. He's got great running ability, great at tackling, only 20 years old and is a (relatively) local product - from Temora and already lives in Sydney. I hate to say it, because it feels disloyal, but I think he is similar to but a little better than Foote. What do others think?

The problem is, we want to take 4 picks at the draft and we have already upgraded 4 rookies so either we would have to take one less at the draft (somehow can't see that happening) or we increase our list by one. Not sure why this has to be such a problem.

Is it possible/likely the Giants deliberately held off delisting Barrett until we had upgraded Foote, and other clubs presumably have gone further along settling their lists and so have less flexibility to pick Barrett up?

I reckon we're running a tight ship cap space wise so there's no way we'll go to a list of 39. Even at minimum wages of approx. $65K that's money that counts to the TPP which we can't use to re-sign Heeney and JPK. The more I look at our list I am glad Mitchell left because I just feel more confident we can keep the rest of the squad now