2017 trading, drafting, list management

[Mug Punter]

Whilst I agree he is required I think his open market value is overstated
Mitchell got reportedly $700K over 5 yrs and Jones isn't at that level of consistency yet, same as what Treloar got.
I love the kid but he hasn't shown that level yet

I reckon he should/will get a 3 yr deal around 500K/year then demand a big contract at 25/26 yrs of age if he continues his trajectory

Market value is a rubbery notion at the moment, it's really based on what someone is prepared to pay and the future expectation of the player in question.

Personally I think that by the end of the season that Zak should be on at least the same money as Mitchell who is a one dimensional one paced ball magnet whereas Jones has the potential to be a genuine match winner.

Time to start a dedicated thread re this methinks

[Nico]

Our next generation midfield is Jones, Heeney and Mills. Have to keep Jones.

[Mug Punter]

Sam Reid and Zak Jones

Like all Swans fans I'm nervous about both of these players coming off contract.

I've got some form calling Jetta and Mitchell early as leavers and whilst I'm not at that stage yet I have a bad feeling in my bones.

Personally I don't think we can afford to re-sign both and it may be possible, in this crazy player market with clubs like St Kilda and Norf massively cashed up with their cap, that we may choose to let both leave if we believe the offers are overs.

My gut is that Zak is as good as gone. He is a Melbourne boy through and through, he has his big bro there and even if they don't play on the same team I see the lure of a home town return, an extra $200,000 a year plus in salary and a better chance of a flag at the Saints as almost impossible to turn down. He also has massive upside as he is an explosive player that is hard to find. If I was St Kilda I'd leave Nat Fyfe alone, he's from all reports a difficult character highly unpopular at Freo in the dressing room, and I'd take Zak with their first pick and keep the Pick 1-5 they get from the Hawks for another elite draftee.

Sam I think is much more likely to stay. He is more established in Sydney, he has a Sydney fianc?e who has her own career here and he has a lovely house etc etc. He may be able to get a bit more in Melbourne but I just feel we'll get close enough there to close the deal. Having said that, if either of these guys is still un-signed after the Bye going into July we should be very concerned.

As for what they would be worth, I agree with a poster on the other thread that bidding wars don't exist any more but a sought after player will extract a fair bid and a pick around 10 would be fair for Zak I believe. I cannot understand the RFA comp but surely an early second round pick would be the bare minimum for Sam.

The next question that begs to be asked is that, given our current situation, whether losing both would be such a bad thing? It clearly is preferable to keep both but I won't be slashing my wrists if we lose both and go into next years draft with draft picks of, for example, 5,10,23,24 and 42.

I personally think we are out the Flag window for at least three years now. We took a gamble with Tippett and Buddy soaking up so much space and hoped we'd get one flag out of it. It failed but I still think it was worth the effort. Now we need to rebuild. Five quality draft picks this year, including two elite, added to this years class of Florent, Hayward, Maubain and Cameron (who I all think will be 100 gamers) coupled with Mills and Heeney and the likely drafting of Nick Blakey the year after really would see us lined up in 2020 (when Heeney will still only be 24) with one of the best young lists in the comp. Also by this time Buddy will be into the 7th year of his contract with years 8 and 9 tailing off and taking up much less cap space.

It's why I think we'll try and re-sign these two but not at any cost.

[waswan]

Definitely see Jones as a better option then Mitchell
Im sure we could throw 550k at him to satisfy
If you are talking 600-700K we could get just about any up and coming mid, we could raid GWS

[Mug Punter]

Our next generation midfield is Jones, Heeney and Mills. Have to keep Jones.

We may not have that choice....

[tlock]

I think the Swans should hire a stats guy and "moneyball" the team. Take the emotion out of the equation and trade players based purely on data. Find players that are under-valued and get rid of over-valued players like Tippett. Pick players that are strong in key areas where the team is weak. Sort of like what this soccer team did:

[Nico]

Unless Reid has a career best rest of the season then his price must be devalued for us. If another club wants to pay him overs then keep the cards close to the chest and do a deal on a trade. If he is now entrenched in his personal life in Sydney he will probably take a haircut.

[controlink]

Will be devastated if Jones leaves, love watching him play. I think he should be our top priority this year. He's brother sent out a tweet saying something like "couldn't of gone to a better club" when he got drafted to us, so hopefully he remind him he's in a good place.

[Ludwig]

Like all Swans fans I'm nervous about both of these players coming off contract.

I've got some form calling Jetta and Mitchell early as leavers and whilst I'm not at that stage yet I have a bad feeling in my bones.

Personally I don't think we can afford to re-sign both and it may be possible, in this crazy player market with clubs like St Kilda and Norf massively cashed up with their cap, that we may choose to let both leave if we believe the offers are overs.

My gut is that Zak is as good as gone. He is a Melbourne boy through and through, he has his big bro there and even if they don't play on the same team I see the lure of a home town return, an extra $200,000 a year plus in salary and a better chance of a flag at the Saints as almost impossible to turn down. He also has massive upside as he is an explosive player that is hard to find. If I was St Kilda I'd leave Nat Fyfe alone, he's from all reports a difficult character highly unpopular at Freo in the dressing room, and I'd take Zak with their first pick and keep the Pick 1-5 they get from the Hawks for another elite draftee.

Sam I think is much more likely to stay. He is more established in Sydney, he has a Sydney fianc?e who has her own career here and he has a lovely house etc etc. He may be able to get a bit more in Melbourne but I just feel we'll get close enough there to close the deal. Having said that, if either of these guys is still un-signed after the Bye going into July we should be very concerned.

As for what they would be worth, I agree with a poster on the other thread that bidding wars don't exist any more but a sought after player will extract a fair bid and a pick around 10 would be fair for Zak I believe. I cannot understand the RFA comp but surely an early second round pick would be the bare minimum for Sam.

The next question that begs to be asked is that, given our current situation, whether losing both would be such a bad thing? It clearly is preferable to keep both but I won't be slashing my wrists if we lose both and go into next years draft with draft picks of, for example, 5,10,23,24 and 42.

I personally think we are out the Flag window for at least three years now. We took a gamble with Tippett and Buddy soaking up so much space and hoped we'd get one flag out of it. It failed but I still think it was worth the effort. Now we need to rebuild. Five quality draft picks this year, including two elite, added to this years class of Florent, Hayward, Maubain and Cameron (who I all think will be 100 gamers) coupled with Mills and Heeney and the likely drafting of Nick Blakey the year after really would see us lined up in 2020 (when Heeney will still only be 24) with one of the best young lists in the comp. Also by this time Buddy will be into the 7th year of his contract with years 8 and 9 tailing off and taking up much less cap space.

It's why I think we'll try and re-sign these two but not at any cost.

By the end of the year you'll be saying that we're a lock on the 2018 Premiership. We are certainly off to a poor start and it would take a miracle to get us back in the race for this year. But little has changed in the personnel from the team that, except for imaginative umpiring, could have won the flag. To that, we added and excellent crop of draftees, Reid is back from injury, AJ is coming along, and several players like Jones and Lloyd have taken their games to another level.

I don't see Jones as being Melbourne through and through. He has spent almost his entire adult life in Sydney. He seems passionate about the club and the club loves him. Not everyone will sell themselves to the highest bidder. Most people will stay at their job if they like their workplace, their colleagues and feel their employer is treating and compensating them fairly.

Mitchell going was an easy call. It was clear to me that we wanted him to go because we were overloaded with what he had to offer. We had to make room for Heeney, Mills and Jones. Zak is the kind of player we need and surely want. I feel confident a deal will be made to keep him at the club.

[waswan]

We should chase that Hopper from GWS, he is unsigned

[Ludwig]

Unless Reid has a career best rest of the season then his price must be devalued for us. If another club wants to pay him overs then keep the cards close to the chest and do a deal on a trade. If he is now entrenched in his personal life in Sydney he will probably take a haircut.

I agree with this, even though I do like him as a player. He's been well paid for what we've gotten from him so far and think he owes the club something. I don't know how much more of a haircut he can take. He already looks well-scalped. He will probably stay in any case.

Reid is an RFA, so if he goes he will probably be getting something like 600-700k pa on a long term contract. That will probably be enough to get us a 1st round compensation pick after our own pick, but certainly no less than and end of 1st round pick. That's would be pretty fair if it happened.

I think he's a valuable player when he's up and going, but we could survive without him if he leaves.

I don't know how much more of a haircut he can take.

[Meg]

Pick players that are strong in key areas where the team is weak.]

That's exactly what we did when we recruited Tippett. Swans did not have a specialist full forward at the time and that was the role he was chosen to fill. Events since then have changed the scenario I agree.

[Bloody Hell]

Our next generation midfield is Jones, Heeney and Mills. Have to keep Jones.

Need to add a midfield bull to that list. It was Mitchell....now?

- - - Updated - - -

I agree with this, even though I do like him as a player. He's been well paid for what we've gotten from him so far and think he owes the club something. I don't know how much more of a haircut he can take. He already looks well-scalped. He will probably stay in any case.

Reid is an RFA, so if he goes he will probably be getting something like 600-700k pa on a long term contract. That will probably be enough to get us a 1st round compensation pick after our own pick, but certainly no less than and end of 1st round pick. That's would be pretty fair if it happened.

I think he's a valuable player when he's up and going, but we could survive without him if he leaves.

I don't know how much more of a haircut he can take.

Both Tippett and Buddy are 30. There's not much behind Reid as a KPF.

[Flying South]

If it was a choice of Jones or Reid, for me the choice is easy. Jones every day of the week. This is an early call and some may call me crazy, but he reminds a lot of Chris Judd at West Coast. He possesses a combination of speed, acceleration, agility and core strength. These attributes give him the ability to receive the ball in traffic, then break free from or weave around opponents, allowing him to dispose in open space which is damaging to opposition teams. It gets their defences on the back foot. We saw that a number of times on Sunday. Many have said that it was a breakout game for him. And i agree. Though not surprised. I believe he will be an elite player in the league within a year or two.

Reid on the other hand, IMO, doesn't provide the consistent goal threat that he is being paid for. And i highlight consistently. He often goes 3 or 4 games without kicking a goal. Sure he brings other attributes to the team, but i would have thought he is being paid very well to kick goals. His career average is 1 goal per game. Some midfielders can average that. In fact Luke Parker has kicked more goals than him (+1 Goal/+29 games). I have hopes that Dawson or Cameron could achieve those numbers and take up a lot less cap space. Just my opinion.

[Ludwig]

If it was a choice of Jones or Reid, for me the choice is easy. Jones every day of the week. This is an early call and some may call me crazy, but he reminds a lot of Chris Judd at West Coast. He possesses a combination of speed, acceleration, agility and core strength. These attributes give him the ability to receive the ball in traffic, then break free from or weave around opponents, allowing him to dispose in open space which is damaging to opposition teams. It gets their defences on the back foot. We saw that a number of times on Sunday. Many have said that it was a breakout game for him. And i agree. Though not surprised. I believe he will be an elite player in the league within a year or two.

Reid on the other hand, IMO, doesn't provide the consistent goal threat that he is being paid for. And i highlight consistently. He often goes 3 or 4 games without kicking a goal. Sure he brings other attributes to the team, but i would have thought he is being paid very well to kick goals. His career average is 1 goal per game. Some midfielders can average that. In fact Luke Parker has kicked more goals than him (+1 Goal/+29 games). I have hopes that Dawson or Cameron could achieve those numbers and take up a lot less cap space. Just my opinion.

Well said.

Jones does have the traits that made Chris Judd a such a great player. It just took 3+ years for it to develop, while it was evident with Judd right from the start. There are not that many players that can win the contested ball, break from the pack with speed and run downfield evading tacklers. Jones looked every bit as good as Dangerfield last game.

Teams don't need a big contested marking forward these days. The Bulldogs have done quite well without one. We still have Buddy plus the resting ruckman in either Tippett or Cameron (one day). Rohan and Dawson can provide good marking options even though they are not KPF size. Both are good contested marks and can kick the ball a long way. If we lose Reid we will probably take a KPF in this year's draft and will get Blakely next year, which should bode well looking longer term. In the short term, one of our backmen, either Aliir or Maibaum could play forward if need be.