Finals

[Doctor J.]

You are probably right ... but ... it is a strange season. There are 10 games to go. We are only two games off fourth spot (with good percentage that will keep rising if we keep winning) and at our best (such as the second half on the weekend), there is no team we can't beat. Anything could happen.

Meanwhile, the Bulldogs showed last year that momentum at the right end of the season can be a juggernaut (with the help of umpires).

Pure optimism, of course.

We wont get this so don't put it into any of your calculations.

[Mel_C]

Oh, and what was the reason that the AFL gave for shifting our home final to ANZ? Was it that the SCG wouldn't be able to hold the bumper crowd? Surely that would apply to Spotless, given that it's half the size of the SCG?

I'm sure that Gill made a comment earlier in the season that if the Giants hosted a final against us that it would be at ANZ. Now of course knowing the AFL , they like to make up the rules as they go so this could change [emoji6] .

Sent from my HTC_PN071 using Tapatalk

[707]

.....Meanwhile, the Bulldogs showed last year that momentum at the right end of the season can be a juggernaut (with the help of umpires).

Pure optimism, of course.

Optimism about the umpires I assume and not the team!

[bloodspirit]

Fox Footy is tipping us to finish 8th with 13 wins! The Run Home, AFL fixture 2017 analysed: Predicted ladder, predicted finals series | Fox Sports

However I think there are a lot of doubtful claims in this. For instance:

* I don't see the Giants finishing with a 19-3 record and going the rest of the season undefeated
* I don't think Melbourne is going to wind up with better percentage than us

It seems that their predictions are based on games all going to the favourites (logical but also obviously flawed). I'm not sure how they have decided who the favourites are - it's obviously not based on ladder position because otherwise they wouldn't be tipping us to go 8-2 over the rest of the season.

So, not worth all that much but on topic.

[mattybloods]

If we manage 13 wins our percentage would be better than most. Difficult year to pick a top 8!

[Go Swannies]

The way this season is running, the Giants will probably lose to the Lions this weekend.

[bloodspirit]

In depth article about probability of whether we'll make finals using ELO ratings and worthy of neilfws (to the untrained eye anyway): Footy Forensics AFL Will your team make the finals?

If we win both of our next two matches, we are a very good chance. If we drop even one of them, we'll still be a less than even money bet. Sounds about right to me. What's also interesting is that we are currently rated the 4th best team!

[Billericay]

In depth article about probability of whether we'll make finals using ELO ratings and worthy of neilfws (to the untrained eye anyway): Footy Forensics AFL Will your team make the finals?

If we win both of our next two matches, we are a very good chance. If we drop even one of them, we'll still be a less than even money bet. Sounds about right to me. What's also interesting is that we are currently rated the 4th best team!

I think that assessment is spot on. The next two are season defining. I'm pretty nervous as think it will be tough to win both.

[Thunder Shaker]

Fox Footy is tipping us to finish 8th with 13 wins! The Run Home, AFL fixture 2017 analysed: Predicted ladder, predicted finals series | Fox Sports

However I think there are a lot of doubtful claims in this. For instance:

* I don't see the Giants finishing with a 19-3 record and going the rest of the season undefeated
* I don't think Melbourne is going to wind up with better percentage than us

It seems that their predictions are based on games all going to the favourites (logical but also obviously flawed). I'm not sure how they have decided who the favourites are - it's obviously not based on ladder position because otherwise they wouldn't be tipping us to go 8-2 over the rest of the season.

So, not worth all that much but on topic.

I also agree with the idea that a few claims are doubtful.

* Giants will drop a few games due to their injury list.
* They have overrated Richmond, who have to learn how to play in the second half so they don't keep choking in close games.
* Port Adelaide are underrated. They had one bad game against Essendon, but their monster percentage shows they are better than that. I expect them to be in the top four.
* Melbourne are also underrated.
* Western Bulldogs have had a significant drop in form in the last month. I doubt they will make the finals.

With the closeness of the season, it comes down to the results of single games potentially being the difference between finishing fifth and missing the finals. It's that close.

They're also suggesting that 10th place will have 13 wins. That's not going to happen. The middle sides will drop games to the lower sides. If Carlton can beat GWS, many other upsets are on the cards.

It's one thing to go through each team and pontificate on their form. It's another to run a Monte Carlo simulation with 100,000 random seasons weighted on form as I did. That simulation suggest that Adelaide are the most likely to make the finals (>99% chance) and we're about 50% (eighth). Dropping two or three games won't necessarily be a problem as long as we don't get thumped. Conserving our good percentage is as good as a win.

Our run:
* Essendon at SCG (we are better than 50% of winning)
* Melbourne at MCG (this game will be a hard game)
* Gold Coast Suns at SCG (should win)
* GWS Giants at Spotless (not favoured to win here, but we are a chance to steal an upset if the Giants' injuries are still a problem)
* St Kilda at SCG (should win this)
* Hawthorn at MCG (should win this, but then again that's what we thought last time)
* Geelong Cats at Simonds (Hard but doable)
* Fremantle at SCG (Percentage boost?)
* Adelaide Crows at AO (Hardest game)
* Carlton at SCG (We will know our fate by then - my tip: win and we're in)

Games most likely to lose: Melbourne, GWS Giants, Geelong, Adelaide. I'm guessing 7-3 from here for 12 wins total.

- - - Updated - - -

I think that assessment is spot on. The next two are season defining. I'm pretty nervous as think it will be tough to win both.

We might end up losing to Melbourne and beating the Giants a few weeks later to get the game back. Who knows?

[liz]

We might end up losing to Melbourne and beating the Giants a few weeks later to get the game back. Who knows?

The Dees are still a bit hot and cold. They're still prone to throw in the odd stinker. Also, the game we play against them will be their 3rd six day break in a row, and they will be returning from Perth.

Hopefully Gawn will return for them this weekend, and not be held back to the game against us (though with it involving travel to Perth, they may not take him). Top-line players coming back from longish injury lay-offs often have a very good first game back, as the adrenalin flows, but then struggle for the next week or two until their bodies get back into the swing of things.

[dejavoodoo44]

Fox Footy is tipping us to finish 8th with 13 wins! The Run Home, AFL fixture 2017 analysed: Predicted ladder, predicted finals series | Fox Sports

However I think there are a lot of doubtful claims in this. For instance:

* I don't see the Giants finishing with a 19-3 record and going the rest of the season undefeated
* I don't think Melbourne is going to wind up with better percentage than us

It seems that their predictions are based on games all going to the favourites (logical but also obviously flawed). I'm not sure how they have decided who the favourites are - it's obviously not based on ladder position because otherwise they wouldn't be tipping us to go 8-2 over the rest of the season.

So, not worth all that much but on topic.

Interestingly, if we get in front of Essendon on Friday night, the live ladder will have us in eighth. Though to stay there until the end of the round, North will have to beat the Dogs, the Cats will have to beat the Dockers and the Suns need to get over the Saints. Fairly long odds, but far from impossible. And if we're eighth on Friday, we have plenty of rounds to improve that position.

[Markwebbos]

The Dees are still a bit hot and cold. They're still prone to throw in the odd stinker. Also, the game we play against them will be their 3rd six day break in a row, and they will be returning from Perth.

Hopefully Gawn will return for them this weekend, and not be held back to the game against us (though with it involving travel to Perth, they may not take him). Top-line players coming back from longish injury lay-offs often have a very good first game back, as the adrenalin flows, but then struggle for the next week or two until their bodies get back into the swing of things.

Good points. I think Demons are beatable.

[Boddo]

Not sure where to put this but because there is a chance we may not make finals ive put it here

AFLX on its way: Footy 'Big Bash' set for September - M.afl.com.au

What do any of you think of this? I don't know why clubs would risk their players for a bit of circus stuff. If there were a good amount of prize money I could understand it. And I could imagine most sides would consist of more reserve grade players than star senior players.

[liz]

And yet, if we do miss the finals this year, our reserves team will almost certainly still be going in the NEAFL right to the pointy end. So maybe the likes of Lance and Isaac will need to don their clown suits.

This sounds like one of those ideas that someone threw up and no-one was game enough to point out how stupid it was. Who do they think is going to have any interest in watching something like this?

[Boddo]

And yet, if we do miss the finals this year, our reserves team will almost certainly still be going in the NEAFL right to the pointy end. So maybe the likes of Lance and Isaac will need to don their clown suits.

This sounds like one of those ideas that someone threw up and no-one was game enough to point out how stupid it was. Who do they think is going to have any interest in watching something like this?

Well said.