Longmire.
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I don't think anything done during the season would have changed the result last night, but I think Longmire took the team in the wrong direction during the season in several respects.- We never managed to find a solution to our ruck set up. None of our ruckmen are really good enough to set a midfield around. We had to develop a game based on losing the hitouts and winning the ball after the opposition gets first touch on the ball. Unfortunately, Darcy Cameron didn't get enough of a chance to really show what he can do, but the early signs are promising. We should try to trade out one of our ruckmen and go with just one next season. Sinclair and Tippett are capable of having a big game here and there, but won't produce enough over the season to warrant a spot in the forward line. Longmire wasted a lot of time and effort trying to make a 2 ruckman solution work.
- We backed the wrong rookie player this year. I think Hayward is going to be a great player and did some impressive things for a slightly build 18 yo. His future looks bright. But Dawson was the player that Longmire should have backed in for senior football. He had a great pre-season. He has the size and strength to compete at AFL level. I said all year that Hayward was not fit for finals footy this year and was pulled before the finals. I think Dawson might have made it.
- We had plenty of other players to fill in our back 6, but Longmire persisted in playing Mills in defence when it would have made more sense to move him to the midfield where he could use his vision and skills to more advantage. He was very good in defence, but was forced to play some unfortunate mismatches that favoured bigger opposition forwards. I don't know why we put him in that position.
- We should have committed to playing Reg, Melican and Aliir in a 3 tall backline. You don't always need 3 talls, especially when Rampe can play tall, but it doesn't hurt. We got caught out throughout the year with tall opposition players finding a mismatch and going forward. It's too easy to isolate a favourable situation against a one on one defence like the Swans. We really need to play 3 talls in our kind of defence.
There are always a few surprises that come out of the preseason, but as it stands now I would expect that Aliir, Dawson, Hayward, Florent and Cameron will be the players to come into the side and play a fair chunk of senior footy next year. I don't know where the future lies for Sinclair and Towers. Both have improved this year, but maybe not enough to be regulars in a side looking to win a premiership. Harry Cunningham started the season well before his injury. He hasn't regained his pre-injury form, but next year is a chance to reboot and hopefully improve his game.Comment
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I don't think anything done during the season would have changed the result last night, but I think Longmire took the team in the wrong direction during the season in several respects.- We never managed to find a solution to our ruck set up. None of our ruckmen are really good enough to set a midfield around. We had to develop a game based on losing the hitouts and winning the ball after the opposition gets first touch on the ball. Unfortunately, Darcy Cameron didn't get enough of a chance to really show what he can do, but the early signs are promising. We should try to trade out one of our ruckmen and go with just one next season. Sinclair and Tippett are capable of having a big game here and there, but won't produce enough over the season to warrant a spot in the forward line. Longmire wasted a lot of time and effort trying to make a 2 ruckman solution work.
- We backed the wrong rookie player this year. I think Hayward is going to be a great player and did some impressive things for a slightly build 18 yo. His future looks bright. But Dawson was the player that Longmire should have backed in for senior football. He had a great pre-season. He has the size and strength to compete at AFL level. I said all year that Hayward was not fit for finals footy this year and was pulled before the finals. I think Dawson might have made it.
- We had plenty of other players to fill in our back 6, but Longmire persisted in playing Mills in defence when it would have made more sense to move him to the midfield where he could use his vision and skills to more advantage. He was very good in defence, but was forced to play some unfortunate mismatches that favoured bigger opposition forwards. I don't know why we put him in that position.
- We should have committed to playing Reg, Melican and Aliir in a 3 tall backline. You don't always need 3 talls, especially when Rampe can play tall, but it doesn't hurt. We got caught out throughout the year with tall opposition players finding a mismatch and going forward. It's too easy to isolate a favourable situation against a one on one defence like the Swans. We really need to play 3 talls in our kind of defence.
There are always a few surprises that come out of the preseason, but as it stands now I would expect that Aliir, Dawson, Hayward, Florent and Cameron will be the players to come into the side and play a fair chunk of senior footy next year. I don't know where the future lies for Sinclair and Towers. Both have improved this year, but maybe not enough to be regulars in a side looking to win a premiership. Harry Cunningham started the season well before his injury. He hasn't regained his pre-injury form, but next year is a chance to reboot and hopefully improve his game.
I think Hayward ran out of steam as an 18 year old kid. He went pretty well until the last 2-3 weeks (including the NEAFL GF) when he appeared to fall off a cliff. They gave Dawson one game and he didn't distinguish himself. I'm praying they give him an extended run in 2017 a bit like Newman who couldn't get a game in 2016 despite NEAFL form and is becoming a regular.
Re: talls in defence, I'll watch the remaining finals with interest. If Richmond go all the way (I suspect they'll be beaten by Adelaide in the GF) will we see smaller and smaller forward lines and defences in 2018? Given how hard it is to recruit tall players too. Melican didn't play v Richmond because he had no match up.
I'd certainly like to see Melican back and Aliir in the side. Don't want to see what happened with Danger happening in 2018 (although he is a pretty difficult match-up)
The question with Dawson, Aliir, Melican etc is who makes way? Cunningham for Melican, One ruckman for Aliir, I think Towers keeps his spot because of his rucking ability. Does Macca need to make way? I'd be happy to see Parker spend less time on the ball and more up forward.Comment
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The question with Dawson, Aliir, Melican etc is who makes way? Cunningham for Melican, One ruckman for Aliir, I think Towers keeps his spot because of his rucking ability. Does Macca need to make way? I'd be happy to see Parker spend less time on the ball and more up forward.
I'm hoping Cameron comes good. We could have a ruck rotation involving Cameron, Reid and Aliir. We won't dominate in the ruck, but all are dangerous matchups for an opposition ruckman around the ground and going forward. One of the things the team needs is to be more unpredictable and not be so Buddy-centric. It's not helping Buddy or the team when everyone knows the ball is coming in to him all the time.Comment
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From yesterday's team, Macca, Sinclair, Naismith, Cunningham and Towers would be the ones most under pressure to lose a spot. It doesn't mean they all should go. It depends on how things look as we go through the pre-season. Maybe Towers would be better than Florent next year, but we need to look down the road a bit to develop a player with more upside.
I'm hoping Cameron comes good. We could have a ruck rotation involving Cameron, Reid and Aliir. We won't dominate in the ruck, but all are dangerous matchups for an opposition ruckman around the ground and going forward. One of the things the team needs is to be more unpredictable and not be so Buddy-centric. It's not helping Buddy or the team when everyone knows the ball is coming in to him all the time.Comment
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Your analyses are food for thought Ludwig but I think you are writing Naismith off too early. Hasn't played too many games and does get first hand on ball a lot. Plenty of improvement in him. Tippett should go before Sinclair who has improved. We got pumped by Hawks in 2011 equivalent semi final. 2012 went ok.Comment
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Not long after Naismith came into the senior side (after his very heavily interrupted pre-season), both Sinclair and Tippett found themselves in the reserves. Part of that was due to Tippett's propensity to get injured at regular intervals, but it shows that the coaches believe(d) he was good enough to play as a lone ruckman.
When Naismith returned to the senior side for the Essendon game, he did the vast majority of ruck work on his own, with Towers providing some relief. Sinclair was picked as a forward (and played as a very effective one last week). So again, that suggests the coaches believe that Naismith is good enough to play as a lone ruckman.
I am a big fan of Naismith's potential (and yes, I realise that, now into his mid-20s he needs to become more than just potential). I think this season would have been very challenging for him. I dropped in on a decent number of training sessions over the pre-season, spaced out between November and February. Well into the New Year, Naismith was running, on his own, and very slowly. He had a very limited period to develop any kind of fitness base and I doubt he participated in ANY skills/drills practice with the team before the season got under way.
When he established himself in the senior team midway through last year, I thought he had an immediate and tangible impact on our clearance work, especially at centre bounces. His ability to win pure taps and direct them into some space, rather than just try to negate the opposition ruckman and get the ball to drop close to their feet so that Kennedy or Parker could go burrowing, paid immediate rewards. To some extent I think he's been able to do this in 2017, though maybe not quite as effectively as last year. And while his contributions around the ground last year were hardly the thing of Dean Cox, he did offer more in 2016. I reckon this can be largely explained by his limited pre-season.
Even yesterday, I thought Naismith was one of the few players who played his primary role OK. Much of the match is a haze because it became an exercise in gritting my teeth just to sit there and get through it to the final siren, but when I was playing close attention, he seemed to get his hand to the ball first at many centre bounces and often into the hands of a Swan. It was just the next part in the chain that completely fell away, partly due to the Cats' excellent pressure and partly due to our entire midfield's inability to handle a greasy ball, even when in a little bit of space.
Who knows whether Naismith will ever be durable enough to get a full season under his belt and survive almost a full season as a lone ruckman. Certainly it has to be questioned. But to Ludwig's point about a single ruckman being a preferable way to structure the team, I think there's substantial evidence from this year to suggest the Swans coaching panel agrees.
Then it comes to a separate question of whether Tippett or Sinclair (or Cameron, in time) can be a productive enough very tall forward to be part of an effective forward line, or whether the team would be better off with more mid-sized players surrounding Buddy and Reid (a bulked up Hayward, in time, or a Dawson - though it's worth noting that Dawson dominated the NEAFL this year playing mostly as a tallish midfielder who can also drift forward and kick goals, rather than as a forward).Comment
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Your analyses are food for thought Ludwig but I think you are writing Naismith off too early. Hasn't played too many games and does get first hand on ball a lot. Plenty of improvement in him. Tippett should go before Sinclair who has improved. We got pumped by Hawks in 2011 equivalent semi final. 2012 went ok.Comment
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Don't let them play a spare behind the ball; man them up and force them to kick to contests would be a start. Having the spare just lets them move the ball laterally and makes our forwards run and run and run chasing them from side to side. But when our defence is outgunned and getting monstered like last night, it would be a brave call to go man on man at the back. I guess we really should have picked Melican last night to take the pressure off Rampe early.Comment
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Don't let them play a spare behind the ball; man them up and force them to kick to contests would be a start. Having the spare just lets them move the ball laterally and makes our forwards run and run and run chasing them from side to side. But when our defence is outgunned and getting monstered like last night, it would be a brave call to go man on man at the back. I guess we really should have picked Melican last night to take the pressure off Rampe early.
Just about every team plays a spare behind the ball. When you are not winning the ball or are under pressure going forward like last night, it works a treat. We are normally masters of it. We didn't help ourselves by bombing it aimlessly or mis kicking it. Cunningham chief offender unfortunately.Comment
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I was impressed with his 9 tackles (and a little surprised). When I was watching the game I thought he was missing a number of tackles and didn't realise how many were successful. His efforts have been consistent over the last few games and he was doing a lot of defensive work. I hope he continues to work hard next year.
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