2018 trading, drafting and list management: players and personnel

[Swannette]

Gaff's family is in Melbourne and his father has just had heart surgery. He wouldnt consider Sydney if family reunion is his priority. Free agency gives him the advantage.


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[Kafka's Ghost]

He wasn't selected, only played 3 games up to round 16

There were plenty of others in the same boat who got games week in week out

He was selected for a couple of early games and played poorly in both. The one against the Bulldogs was so bad I thought he’d have his marching papers signed straight after it.

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Ludwig that would be truly amazing to pick up Shiel, Gaff and 2 first rounders before Blakey. But I suspect little of it will happen.

In no particular order:

*Rohan for Thurlow might get done with a swap of lower picks to compensate for any perceived difference in value. Although Gaz might end up at Norf.
*Gaff as free agent. Who knows. I think Sydney could be the ideal location for a player seeking to keep a low profile. And we wouldn’t necessarily have to match Norf. His decision will be about more than $.
*Lloyd plus a bundle of fringe players for pick 3. No. I do believe we expect him to stay. If he goes I’d be amazed if we got pick 3. I reckon pick 14 for Mitchell is a better reference point than pick 2 for Weller. I could see them on trading a mid first rounder. He’s out of contract so they could play hard ball.
*pick 4 for Hanners and change. I don’t think that will happen. More likely a second rounder (from someone else or future) or even a player.

I think Swans have plans to trade out the pick for a player. Possibly Darcy Moore.

*Shiel. Hmmm. Can’t afford Shiel and Gaff. But one or the other would be massive.

Gary Rohan will go to Geelong or not go at all. He’s not interested in North.

[Ludwig]

Ludwig that would be truly amazing to pick up Shiel, Gaff and 2 first rounders before Blakey. But I suspect little of it will happen.

In no particular order:

*Rohan for Thurlow might get done with a swap of lower picks to compensate for any perceived difference in value. Although Gaz might end up at Norf.
*Gaff as free agent. Who knows. I think Sydney could be the ideal location for a player seeking to keep a low profile. And we wouldn’t necessarily have to match Norf. His decision will be about more than $.
*Lloyd plus a bundle of fringe players for pick 3. No. I do believe we expect him to stay. If he goes I’d be amazed if we got pick 3. I reckon pick 14 for Mitchell is a better reference point than pick 2 for Weller. I could see them on trading a mid first rounder. He’s out of contract so they could play hard ball.
*pick 4 for Hanners and change. I don’t think that will happen. More likely a second rounder (from someone else or future) or even a player.

I think Swans have plans to trade out the pick for a player. Possibly Darcy Moore.

*Shiel. Hmmm. Can’t afford Shiel and Gaff. But one or the other would be massive.

This was what I would be trying to accomplish this year, but getting it done is another story.

I think we will keep Lloyd and I'm happy about that. But I think Lloyd + Newman, 2 players GC are interested in, and no go home factor, might be enough to have a conversation about pick #3. May suit both clubs.

It's not pick 4 for Hanners and change. It's pick 4 for Hanners and pick 13. That nets out to 822 value points. That looks like a win for St. Kilda, based solely on value. The Saints don't have another pick this year until 50 something. Their 2019 2nd rounder wouldn't be valued higher than a pick 30 this year, way too low for Hanners. We all know that we got unders for Mitchell. He was worth a pick 3 - 5, even without the use of hindsight. GC want players that they know want to play for the club.

Gaff and Shiel are 2 elite players who are ostensibly available this year for the right price. Both fit our needs perfectly and put us back in the conversation for top 4 next year. The money is always going to be a factor. It's very difficult to know what players really want and how much other considerations are weighed into the equation. They are the kind of players we should target, but the big fish are not easy to catch. However, we do have some history in this area.

[AnnieH]

That's consistent with what is being said by Cats supporters on the other board, Scarlett doesn't rate him

In that case... how likely is he to become a Teddy or Joey?
(Other famous non-raters who did/are doing a fine job.)

[111431]

This was what I would be trying to accomplish this year, but getting it done is another story.

I think we will keep Lloyd and I'm happy about that. But I think Lloyd + Newman, 2 players GC are interested in, and no go home factor, might be enough to have a conversation about pick #3. May suit both clubs.

It's not pick 4 for Hanners and change. It's pick 4 for Hanners and pick 13. That nets out to 822 value points. That looks like a win for St. Kilda, based solely on value. The Saints don't have another pick this year until 50 something. Their 2019 2nd rounder wouldn't be valued higher than a pick 30 this year, way too low for Hanners. We all know that we got unders for Mitchell. He was worth a pick 3 - 5, even without the use of hindsight. GC want players that they know want to play for the club.

Gaff and Shiel are 2 elite players who are ostensibly available this year for the right price. Both fit our needs perfectly and put us back in the conversation for top 4 next year. The money is always going to be a factor. It's very difficult to know what players really want and how much other considerations are weighed into the equation. They are the kind of players we should target, but the big fish are not easy to catch. However, we do has some history in this area.

I think this logic is very sound

[swansrob]

Reports where?

AFL trades 2018: Sydney Swans, Andrew Gaff rumour | Dan Hannebery

[Markwebbos]

That article says Swans will be paying some of Hanners salary at St Kilda. Truth finally comes out.

[AnnieH]

That article says Swans will be paying some of Hanners salary at St Kilda. Truth finally comes out.

Why do they have to do that?
I would think that if St Kilda take him, they take what is owed on his contract as well.

[Hotpotato]

Sounds as if , like the fans, the Swans heavy hitters and shakers were pretty gutted the team finished 7th and advanced no further.

[aardvark]

We should trade Lloyd, he won't be needed with the 18 meter square coming in. We need to recruit that academy kid playing as a punter in the NFL. With the 18 meter square he could kick it straight to Buddy at the SCG.

[barry]

Gaff to GWS, Sheil to Swans, Hannerbury to Saints, Rohan to Pussy cats. Plus Swap of picks to make it all even.

[Cosmic Wizard]

The club is Gold Coast who apparently have no $ to throw at Lloyd. Who remains unsigned. I wonder if they’ll miraculously find the money during the trade period and pick up Lloyd and Newman?

Lloyd’s making me nervous now

Sorry, but does CC have to trade with us over Lloyd??

Just because he is out of contract, he is not a free agent or anything??

Because if so, one of their pick 2 or 3 will be grand!

[Markwebbos]

Why do they have to do that?
I would think that if St Kilda take him, they take what is owed on his contract as well.

Because we are offloading him. They are doing us a “favour”

[AB Swannie]

I’d love to do the pick upgrade of Hanners + 13 to Saints for 4. I think it’s fair but I don’t think it will happen.

My fearless predictions:

1. We get Gaff as a FA.
2. We trade pick 13 for Darcy Moore.
3. We trade Hanners for Saints 2019 2nd round + maybe some later pick swaps.
4. Lloyd re-signs (although I’d love to use him and Newman to get pick 3).
5. Rohan is traded to Geelong. Either we get a player like Thurlow in return or the equivalent of a few hundred points in picks or upgrades.
6. Newman is traded to Gold Coast for basically nothing.

[Ludwig]

State of Play - Part 5

Continuing on with the midfield analysis: focus on the ruckman and stoppages.

The evolution of the ruckman has perhaps been the greatest change in football the past 5 years. The general idea was that if you could have a ruckman like Dean Cox, why do you need a second ruckman? Why not use that spot in the side for another midfielder? As a result, most clubs have moved to a 1 ruckman policy, with the requirement that if the ruckman is not a stoppage dominating ruckman, he has to offer advantages around the ground.

The major impact of this evolution is the widening gap between the best and the worst ruckmen. Players like Hickey and Longer at St Kilda are lost. Leuenberger and Zac Smith, 2 players that many on here wanted to join the Swans, cannot get a game, even when fully fit. Max Gawn and Brody Grundy, the 2 ruckman most like Dean Cox, in that they can dominate in the ruck contest and make a big contribution around the ground, set the new standard for ruckmen.

It's possible to have an ordinary ruckman, like Toby Nankervis, if your game style is primarily a running outside game not dependent on contested possession. For reference, the bottom 4 teams for hitouts were the Swans (15th) followed by St Kilda, Richmond and WB. The Tigers were 15th in contested possession differential and also ranked low for uncontested possessions and disposal efficiency, by 2nd only to Melbourne in metres gained. So the Tigers have found another way, and it's a game style best suited for the MCG. Hawthorn have also found a way to win without being dominant at stoppages, primarily through a great structure, intelligent players and precise kicking.

The SCG is suited for a strong stoppage game and contested footy and JPK is the ideal midfielder for that game style. He's an offensive midfielder, in that, he wins the ball in close and once he does, it's pretty hard to stop him from moving the ball forward, one way or another. When we lost our strong ruck division, Kennedy lost the kind of game that suited him best, and found himself out of the game for long periods during this season.

Sinclair has been a revelation this year and is one of the most improved players in the competition. He's nearly certain to be a top 5 finisher in the B&F, and if I had to make a guess, I'd have him 2nd to Jake Lloyd. It was also remarkable that he played every game and put in big minutes, taking marks around the ground and becoming one of the best ruckmen once outside the ruck contest. But he forced the Swans to change from an offensive to a defensive setup at stoppages, and we really don't have the players just yet to do that.

Our problems really started in the 2013 draft, taking Nankervis at pick 35. Nothing against Toby, but we added yet another ruckman when the tide was just beginning to turn to the 1 ruckman setup. There was a year when we had 6 ruckman on our list.

Eventually, all ruckmen will have to produce both in the ruck and around the ground. It will take some time to sort itself out. It makes it hard to carry 2 top quality ruckman on a list, as the 2nd one will be playing reserves football unless the top ruckman is injured.

We got whacked this year by losing our 2 top ruckman before the season began. I think we made a mistake not playing Cameron early in the season, but the season is over and we need to move on. We are unlikely to have a dominant ruckman, and given that we are still more of a contested inside footy team, some adjustments will have to be made next year. Our ruck situation is not all that bad and we are in a good position to find a more balanced solution to our stoppage and inside game. Here's my take on our 4 ruckmen:

1. Naismith: Our best tap ruckman and the one who could match it with the best. His problem is that he's coming off an ACL reco and is not likely to have a serious go at senior footy until mid season. His main goal is to stay fit. He needs to have enough continuity to develop the weak parts of his game. He is a Max Gawn type ruckman, so there is a target for him to aim for. Potentially the solution to our ruck situation, but much uncertainty.
2. Cameron: My first choice ruckman for the start of next season. He's shown in the NEAFL this year that he's got an excellent all around game. He just needs to bring that game to the AFL. He won't be the best tap ruckman going around, but should be better than Sinclair and give us a more even contest in the ruck.
3. Sinclair: He had such a good year, yet there probably isn't a starting spot in our side for him next year. He's an excellent backup, both in the ruck and forward, and could still see plenty of action the way injuries are trending these days.
4. Amartey: A great player to have on our list. He should have been taken in the National Draft. He's a good size, very athletic, a good mark, tackles and makes good decisions. I see him as a tall utility, capable of playing many positions. I don't know where he will end up and look forward to seeing further development next year. He's capable of being a Patrick Ryder type ruckman.

I see Cameron and Naismith as our 2 best ruck options for next year. We still need to make adjustments to our midfield for a more balance game. We are moving in this direction anyway, and there's really no way to stop it.

Except for Naismith, our other ruckmen are all capable of playing key forward and make a real impact. The 'balanced' ruckman gives the club the option to play 2 in the same side. It's not really the same as playing 2 ruckmen, but rather 2 forward/ruckmen. I wouldn't be surprised to see more teams playing 2 big forwards capable of sharing the ruck duties as a the positional requirements continue to evolve.

More to come