2018 trading, drafting and list management: players and personnel

[Melbourne_Blood]

Could be we think we can turn a pick 3 or 4 into some later first round/ early second round picks that would allow us to get Blakey but have something to bargain with at the trade table also ?


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[Nico]

I don't think anyone's written him off at all

A few have expressed concern for the following reasons:

1. Most experts didn't have him in their top 20 prospects so it was a surprise that we picked him over more highly credentialed draftees (i.e. Richards and Higgins) who are performing well at senior level; and

2. He struggled to find the ball in the few NEAFL games he did play

Given he's been injured it's too early to tell how he'll pan out, and he's contracted for another 2 seasons so hopefully we'll get that opportunity but at the moment there's not enough evidence to call it.

What the earlier poster was saying is that on their performances to date Richards (and Higgins) have shown enough already to suggest that they are going to be long term AFL players. Injury or not, we can't make that call on Ling yet.

We didn't see much of Melican early in his career. Wait until he gets a run of games under his belt. On what we have seen of Stoddart I am confident he will be in our top 22 next year.

[S.S. Bleeder]

It's amazing how often he has got it wrong with 1st round picks...Lewis Johnston, Josh Willoughby, Daniel O'Keefe etc...

But got it so right with 2nd and 3rd round picks...Parker, Hannebery, Aliir, Hewitt, McCartin etc...

Then there's the Rookie selections, which are off the scale...Smith, Lloyd, Rampe, Grundy, Melican, Papley, Jack etc etc

I wonder why this anomaly has occurred.

Is it spending too much time over analysing and over thinking the 1st rounders? And less time and more just gut feel for the rookie picks.

Back when we did have those high draft picks there was much less analysis on players and there was more uncertainty on draft selections. It is completely different now. As successful as KB has been, had those players gone to Saints or Demons, I doubt that they would be anywhere near the current players they are. Our record also goes to show the importance of creating an environment which is conducive to maximising youth development.

[Nico]

Thought the same when I heard Kingy made that comment. However I maintain Hanner's is worth 2 x 1st round picks going by Carlton receiving the same for Gibbs who was also still contracted (10 & 16), so Billiings & a early 2nd rounder is a minimum in my books. I can see Billings develop into a effective midfielder under our system. St. Kilda must think Hanners will return to AA form to offer him 5 year contract @ $800k (presumably). Interesting both Kingy & Terry Wallace thought St.Kilda going after Hanners isn't the right strategy for them. I'm so hoping Hanners stays & love to see him get to playing his 300th in Red & White!

Billings is very light on with not much meet on the bones. He looks very outside and at best opportunist. We have plenty of those who are or will be better. Now Gresham is a different kettle of fish. Good player now but put him our side and he would be a star. Strong at the footy, quick and reads the play.

[liz]

I think Billings has been in the AFL system long enough for the idea that he'd be better in a good team to be problematic. Most players will go better in a good team but given his supposed talent and the fact he's into his fifth season, he should be one of the players making St Kilda a better team and hence assisting his less credentialed team mates to look better, not one of those needing the lift from others. Or at least, if he's worth what St Kilda fans think he'd been worth* if they wanted to trade him, he should be providing the aforementioned.

*I realise fans of every club can be deluded when it comes to the potential trade worth of their players, but I read a handful of Saints supporters suggesting that if Sydney wanted Billings (and I'm not sure why they'd think he'd be a priority) it would cost our first round pick AND Florent AND Dawson.

[707]

Could be we think we can turn a pick 3 or 4 into some later first round/ early second round picks that would allow us to get Blakey but have something to bargain with at the trade table also ?

St.Kilda could probably convert it into two first rounders, keep one and trade the other and a future second for Hanners IF he requests a trade and it's a big IF at this stage.

Be great to get in a pick before Blakey is bid on but a lot still has to happen for that to come to pass.

[707]

I think Billings has been in the AFL system long enough for the idea that he'd be better in a good team to be problematic. Most players will go better in a good team but given his supposed talent and the fact he's into his fifth season, he should be one of the players making St Kilda a better team and hence assisting his less credentialed team mates to look better, not one of those needing the lift from others. Or at least, if he's worth what St Kilda fans think he'd been worth* if they wanted to trade him, he should be providing the aforementioned.

*I realise fans of every club can be deluded when it comes to the potential trade worth of their players, but I read a handful of Saints supporters suggesting that if Sydney wanted Billings (and I'm not sure why they'd think he'd be a priority) it would cost our first round pick AND Florent AND Dawson.

Ah the narrow and unintelligent views of many BF traders. The one I like that often comes up is bundling a heap of fringe players and converting them for another teams high pick. This year it's Gold Coast that could supposedly do with a heap of dross from another team in exchange for one of their first rounders.

Unfortunately this board also does a bit of that, Robbo, Towers, Foote for a good pick from GC because Dew knows the players. Just doesn't happen!

Good to see Dawson has caught the attention of other teams supporters :-)

[Blood Fever]

The Swans are not demanding anything. The HS article says industry sources believe a swap of picks would be necessary. Harley said on SEN that he is not going to give any oxygen to the story as Hannebery is contracted and he hasn't requested a trade. All paper talk based on St Kilda attention seeking.

As TBC points out, Harley rightly refuses to comment. People are talking as if this is a done deal. Plausible explanation - St Kilda and Lethlean want to be seen to be taking bold action when the club is at a low ebb. Lethlean wants to be seen to be making his mark. Not necessarily corresponds to reality and what will actually happen in the future.

[Blood Fever]

The Swans are not demanding anything. The HS article says industry sources believe a swap of picks would be necessary. Harley said on SEN that he is not going to give any oxygen to the story as Hannebery is contracted and he hasn't requested a trade. All paper talk based on St Kilda attention seeking.

As TBC points out, Harley rightly refuses to comment. People are talking as if this is a done deal. Plausible explanation - St Kilda and Lethlean want to be seen to be taking bold action when the club is at a low ebb. Lethlean wants to be seen to be making his mark. Not necessarily corresponds to reality and what will actually happen in the future.

[Ludwig]

As TBC points out, Harley rightly refuses to comment. People are talking as if this is a done deal. Plausible explanation - St Kilda and Lethlean want to be seen to be taking bold action when the club is at a low ebb. Lethlean wants to be seen to be making his mark. Not necessarily corresponds to reality and what will actually happen in the future.

If there is a deal in a seriously advanced stage the last thing Lethlean would want to do is upset the parties involved because of a news leak. It was probably someone lower down in the Saints organisation with a friend in the media.

Also, if the deal falls through they once again look like failures, so it doesn't really serve their interests to let the rumour out this early.

Another interesting thing is that Luke Dahlhouse is out for the season with an ankle injury, but not a whisper about him being connected to any club, including re-signing with the Bulldogs. He must surely be going to a club still in contention for finals. Also pretty quiet on the Gaff front.

[liz]

I am with those who can't see the Swans being prepared to conduct negotiations in public on a contracted player who they have stated is still a required player and who still has between 2 and 6 games to play this season.

However, if Hanners does ask for the trade and the Swans are willing to entertain it, I doubt their starting point would be a swap of first round picks. I know my starting point would be St Kilda's first round pick full stop. It appears (and the Saints haven't denied it) that they are actively pursuing a high quality, contracted player and offering him a contract extension. He's a similar age to Gibbs a year ago and has achieved a consistently higher level of performance over his career (three AAs, AFLCA winner vs a player who has never made the AA team). Gibbs secured the Blues two mid to late first round picks, with some later picks or pick upgrades going back the other way.


Sure, I realise that recent form and fitness concerns for Hannebery cloud his value somewhat but, again, this appears to be the Saints chasing him.

I wouldn't necessarily expect that starting point to be the final position, if the two clubs decided to trade, but nor would I expect the Swans to start by offering our first round pick back the other way. I'd maybe offer one of our two second round picks back.

[Blood Fever]

If there is a deal in a seriously advanced stage the last thing Lethlean would want to do is upset the parties involved because of a news leak. It was probably someone lower down in the Saints organisation with a friend in the media.

Also, if the deal falls through they once again look like failures, so it doesn't really serve their interests to let the rumour out this early.

Another interesting thing is that Luke Dahlhouse is out for the season with an ankle injury, but not a whisper about him being connected to any club, including re-signing with the Bulldogs. He must surely be going to a club still in contention for finals. Also pretty quiet on the Gaff front.

You may be right but Lethlean was publically big noting his relationship with the Hanneberry family. He may reckon making a splash and getting the Saints in the media more often is worth more than lying low and missing out.

[Ludwig]

However, if Hanners does ask for the trade and the Swans are willing to entertain it, I doubt their starting point would be a swap of first round picks. I know my starting point would be St Kilda's first round pick full stop. It appears (and the Saints haven't denied it) that they are actively pursuing a high quality, contracted player and offering him a contract extension. He's a similar age to Gibbs a year ago and has achieved a consistently higher level of performance over his career (three AAs, AFLCA winner vs a player who has never made the AA team). Gibbs secured the Blues two mid to late first round picks, with some later picks or pick upgrades going back the other way.


Sure, I realise that recent form and fitness concerns for Hannebery cloud his value somewhat but, again, this appears to be the Saints chasing him.

I wouldn't necessarily expect that starting point to be the final position, if the two clubs decided to trade, but nor would I expect the Swans to start by offering our first round pick back the other way. I'd maybe offer one of our two second round picks back.

I roughly calculate the Gibbs deal netted out to around a pick 17 or thereabouts, as Adelaide got back Carlton's 2nd and 3rd round picks for this year. I think our 1st pick would be part of the swap because we don't need it; we just need the points for Blakey and it doesn't matter how we get there. It also looks better for St. Kilda to say they just swapped 1st rounders rather than gave away a pick 4. STK don't have either a 2nd or 3rd round pick this year, so their 2019 2nd rounder is likely to come into play.

I can't believe what a sorry state the Saints are in, with such a poor list and only that pick 4 before the 4th round. It's going to be a long rebuild.

[Mel_C]

It seems like the saints are targeting a player from each club and hoping that one will eventually come. so far I have heard Hanners, Lycett, Menzel and Roughead.

[liz]

It seems like the saints are targeting a player from each club and hoping that one will eventually come. so far I have heard Hanners, Lycett, Menzel and Roughead.

At least the other three of those players are out of contract and free agents (unrestricted, I think, though Lycett could be restricted). One still has three years left to run on his existing contract...