2018 trading, drafting and list management: players and personnel

[707]

Gold Coast not interested in Lloyd is a big help because they were a club offering well overs just to get experience through the door. Saints, North and Carlton are cashed up clubs that could put bigger offers Lloyds way but I'd now be confident he re-signs.

Macca should definitely go round again next year and probably Grundy as well, neither would be any more than average contracts.

[barry]

The whole "Swans are hopeless with their first round picks" thing is a bit of a myth. We had one bad patch about 10 years ago, and have been at least ok before and after that. Here's our draft history for the last 11 years. Of all those players, only the ones you named are not still on an AFL list. You can argue Jetta, Rohan, Lamb & Towers are not "best-22" players, but they are not terrible (Jetta was instrumental in our 2012 flag). Also, a couple of those players like Towers & Lamb were right at the end of the first round. There's not much difference between first & second round at that point.

It's always a bit of a lottery and I don't think we've done too badly.

2017- pick 14 - Mathew Ling - too early to tell
2016 - pick 11 - Oliver Florent - good
2016 - pick 21 - Will Hayward - ok so far
2015 - pick 3 - Callum Mills - good
2014 - pick "18" - Isaac Heeney - good
2013 - pick 15 - Zak Jones - ok so far
2012 - pick 22 - Dean Towers - so-so
2011 - pick 21 - Tom Mitchell - good
2010 - pick 20 - Jed Lamb - not so great
2009 - pick 6 - Gary Rohan - so-so
2009 - pick 14 - Lewis Jetta - so-so
2008 - pick 12 - Lewis Johnstone - not so great
2007 - pick 11 - Patrick Veszpremi - not so great
2007 - pick 15 - Daniel O'Keefe - not so great

You are being very generous. Most haven't lived up to their pick status. Even mills at 3, isn't a pick 3 player yet.

[RogueSwan]

Liam Pickering said on SEN that St Kilda couldn't expect to get Hanners without offering their first pick as Hanners is contracted and St Kilda has absolutely zilch bargaining power. He also queried why Hannebery would leave to basically get the same money as he does now.

I wouldn't trust a single word Pickering says about trades.

[barry]

All st Kilda trade talk is to divert attention from their abismal season.

[wedge.maverick]

The whole "Swans are hopeless with their first round picks" thing is a bit of a myth. We had one bad patch about 10 years ago, and have been at least ok before and after that. Here's our draft history for the last 11 years. Of all those players, only the ones you named are not still on an AFL list. You can argue Jetta, Rohan, Lamb & Towers are not "best-22" players, but they are not terrible (Jetta was instrumental in our 2012 flag). Also, a couple of those players like Towers & Lamb were right at the end of the first round. There's not much difference between first & second round at that point.

It's always a bit of a lottery and I don't think we've done too badly.

2017- pick 14 - Mathew Ling - too early to tell
2016 - pick 11 - Oliver Florent - good
2016 - pick 21 - Will Hayward - ok so far
2015 - pick 3 - Callum Mills - good
2014 - pick "18" - Isaac Heeney - good
2013 - pick 15 - Zak Jones - ok so far
2012 - pick 22 - Dean Towers - so-so
2011 - pick 21 - Tom Mitchell - good
2010 - pick 20 - Jed Lamb - not so great
2009 - pick 6 - Gary Rohan - so-so
2009 - pick 14 - Lewis Jetta - so-so
2008 - pick 12 - Lewis Johnstone - not so great
2007 - pick 11 - Patrick Veszpremi - not so great
2007 - pick 15 - Daniel O'Keefe - not so great

I'd think if you did this same exercise with most other clubs the list wouldn't be much different. Some would in fact be far worse.

[RogueSwan]

I'd think if you did this same exercise with most other clubs the list wouldn't be much different. Some would in fact be far worse.

Carlton?

[Markwebbos]

Rumours re: the Giants having a salary cap squeeze and potentially open to trading Will Setterfield, former #5 draft pick inside midfielder.

Thoughts?

[707]

Rumours re: the Giants having a salary cap squeeze and potentially open to trading Will Setterfield, former #5 draft pick inside midfielder.

Thoughts?

Yes please, wouldn't have to move house!

[Auntie.Gerald]

Hawthorn might be outliers with first round picks

Roughy
Buddy
Hodge etc

All brilliant first round picks

For me given the difficulty in nailing it with a first round pick I would rather take two picks

Pick 5 vs pick 10 and 16

I’d take pick 10 and 16 and u might get two guns or one or none

[caj23]

Rumours re: the Giants having a salary cap squeeze and potentially open to trading Will Setterfield, former #5 draft pick inside midfielder.

Thoughts?

Sounds like bulltish to me, he's already contracted for another season and would be on a fairly minimal salary

I'm sure the Victorian clubs are in his ear about returning home, but the Giants would have no reason to trade him

[Nico]

I think our club squarely have their sites on getting Blakey for the best value possible in the draft. It appears the lauded depth of this draft is on the money and clubs will be pretty divided on who the best top 10 are. More than ever clubs will be in a position to get a quality pick/s to satisfy their needs. Will North or Brisbane be at all interested in bidding for him to force our hand.

Does anyone here know how many points we need and where, when it comes to our first pick, where the ideal spot in the draft he will be for it to be in our favour. Sure it would be nice if he was still not bid on by our first pick but that seems unrealistic to me. Which club will be the one that forces our hand?

[Markwebbos]

Interesting piece by Nick Bowen contrasting the Hawks rebuild with the Saints - one via trade the other via the draft. What I take from it is that people vastly overestimate the value of picks compared to players. The pick 14 we got for Mitchell has the potential to be a good player, but unlikely to be a Brownlow medallist. Ditto the picks Saints received indirectly as part of the Jaeger Omeara trade - 7 will probably never make it to the same level. I get where Paul Roos is coming from. A player is a known quantity, a draftee is not. Given the likelihood of failure, I reckon players should be swapped for 2 picks not one.

COMMENT: How to rebuild a list: Hawks v Saints - AFL.com.au

[waswan]

What I take from it is that people vastly overestimate the value of picks compared to players.

1000% agree
Even the sure things like Mcgrath Rayner etc etc are 3 yrs away from contending a F&B let alone a Brownlow

[S.S. Bleeder]

Yes please, wouldn't have to move house!

And no "go home" factor being an Albury boy. Only problem is that he might take a year or two to develop.

[Ludwig]

Interesting piece by Nick Bowen contrasting the Hawks rebuild with the Saints - one via trade the other via the draft. What I take from it is that people vastly overestimate the value of picks compared to players. The pick 14 we got for Mitchell has the potential to be a good player, but unlikely to be a Brownlow medallist. Ditto the picks Saints received indirectly as part of the Jaeger Omeara trade - 7 will probably never make it to the same level. I get where Paul Roos is coming from. A player is a known quantity, a draftee is not. Given the likelihood of failure, I reckon players should be swapped for 2 picks not one.

COMMENT: How to rebuild a list: Hawks v Saints - AFL.com.au

Swap head coaches and probably swap ladder positions as well.

Richmond have often gotten things wrong in both the draft and trading, but a good 3 drafts has formed the core of the current premiership team. So if you get it right, it can bring success. I'm hoping we're on a similar path.

2006: Riewoldt and Edwards
2007: Cotchin and Rance
2009: Martin, Asbury and Grimes