2018 trading, drafting and list management: players and personnel

[R-1]

My error. You're correct (and was Ludwig). Not sure who I missed when I counted.

The article on the AFL site (probably the same as the one on the Swans' site) confirms that Tippett has been removed from the list.

I won't be surprised if that spot is filled by promoting Fox to the senior list. Alternatively, there could be a DFA that appeals to the club. Last time I looked the Suns hadn't finalised their list, and Jack Leslie was listed as still awaiting a new contract. He played some really good football as a key defender in 2017 but didn't seem to be favoured by Dew in 2018. He played the final few games of the season but that might have been due to injuries, as much as anything. He's one who could be a handy pick-up, especially given Harley said at the start of the trade period that trading for a key defender was an objective.

The Suns also brought in 22 and 24 year old state league defenders in Chris Burgess and former Docker Sam Collins, as well as Jack Hombsch, so in spite of the loss of May and Kolodjashnij, the competition for defensive spots isn't easing up for them either. They don't get a lot of attention because they're a garbage fire overall, but their backline is solid and battled hard this year.

[KSAS]

My error. You're correct (and was Ludwig). Not sure who I missed when I counted.

The article on the AFL site (probably the same as the one on the Swans' site) confirms that Tippett has been removed from the list.

I won't be surprised if that spot is filled by promoting Fox to the senior list. Alternatively, there could be a DFA that appeals to the club. Last time I looked the Suns hadn't finalised their list, and Jack Leslie was listed as still awaiting a new contract. He played some really good football as a key defender in 2017 but didn't seem to be favoured by Dew in 2018. He played the final few games of the season but that might have been due to injuries, as much as anything. He's one who could be a handy pick-up, especially given Harley said at the start of the trade period that trading for a key defender was an objective.

Nathan Freeman could be another alternate DFA we could be interested in. Finally got a senior game with St Kilda late in the season after being out several seasons due to injury, before being delisted (similar to AJ). Was originally pick 10 in 2013 Draft. Strong bodied in/out midfielder who is only 23yo & will be so eager to prove doubters wrong. I was impressed with his maturity & outlook when interviewed upon his delisting.

https://youtu.be/4SQqiJ2-Wgo

[Mark26]

?

Unless I've miscounted, we've cut seven players from the senior list and added two. That leaves five spots, which matches with Beatson's comment that the club intends to draft Blakey + three players (and we know that Ronke will be upgraded).

There are the two additional spots on the senior list that could be used, but the club has run with 38 for so many seasons now that it would be a surprise if they changed for 2019.



The announcement of these two delistings presumably means that Maibaum, Rose, Fox and Pink will remain on the list for another season. It doesn't make much sense to announce further delistings in dribs and drabs.

Did I miss something with J Bell? Has he been offered another year?

[Ludwig]

Did I miss something with J Bell? Has he been offered another year?

I think the fact that he wasn't cut when Brown was sort of indicates that he is likely to play on.

I won't be surprised if that spot is filled by promoting Fox to the senior list. Alternatively, there could be a DFA that appeals to the club. Last time I looked the Suns hadn't finalised their list, and Jack Leslie was listed as still awaiting a new contract. He played some really good football as a key defender in 2017 but didn't seem to be favoured by Dew in 2018. He played the final few games of the season but that might have been due to injuries, as much as anything. He's one who could be a handy pick-up, especially given Harley said at the start of the trade period that trading for a key defender was an objective.

I used to be quite keen Leslie. The few times I've seen him play this year I wasn't all that impressed, but it could be due to general dispondency of being on the Suns' list. I would give him a go if he's delisted.

[707]

So after counting and counting again, to be sure, to be sure we have 30 left from this years senior list, added two so we are at 32 plus the upgrade of Ronke so now 33.

We have 5 spots, Blakey plus picks 38, 39, 40 brings us to 37.

So it's either someone very late in the draft or upgrade Fox on a one year contract or a DFA.

[Ruck'n'Roll]

Nathan Freeman could be another alternate DFA we could be interested in. Finally got a senior game with St Kilda late in the season after being out several seasons due to injury, before being delisted (similar to AJ). Was originally pick 10 in 2013 Draft. Strong bodied in/out midfielder who is only 23yo & will be so eager to prove doubters wrong. I was impressed with his maturity & outlook when interviewed upon his delisting.

Freeman makes his long-awaited debut | Showreel | Round 20, 2018 | AFL - YouTube

I also wondered about him when he was delisted, but according to a Melbourne acquaintance the explosive pace that saw him so highly rated has completely gone.

[rickmat]

Liz, not sure we would elevate Fox as I feel he is a squad player and is included when we have injuries. I'd rather fill the spot with either a promosing draft pick we pick up or a talented delisted player we identify as able to help in either ,key position or specific need we lack

[Melbourne_Blood]

Talking of DFA’s, saw Tommy Sheridan of freo was delisted. I don’t know a lot about him but apparently a winger / utility type with elite endurance ( beat Bradley hill in their time trial ). Would he be worth a punt , as cheap depth. Delisted by Freo doesn’t speak volumes but you never know with guys when they get thrown a lifeline. Only 24.


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[Melbourne_Blood]

Both jordan Murdoch and Daniel Menzel both got delisted by the cats just now too.


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[liz]

Both jordan Murdoch and Daniel Menzel both got delisted by the cats just now too.


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Geelong has indicated they were keen to keep Menzel but only on a one year contract. His manager has been quoted a couple of times saying that he was scouring clubs looking for a two year deal. Geelong delisting him suggests he’s found himself a two year deal and that Geelong are doing the right thing by him and helping him get to that club as a DFA. I very much doubt it will be the Swans. Harley has previously said he wasn’t on our radar. St Kilda is my best guess. They must still have loads of cap space and need to take a few risks.

[stellation]

Both jordan Murdoch and Daniel Menzel both got delisted by the cats just now too.


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Both of those guys were more than serviceable this year for Geelong.

- - - Updated - - -

Geelong has indicated they were keen to keep Menzel but only on ao e year contract. His manager has been quoted a couple of times saying that he was scouring clubs looking for a two year deal. Geelong delisting him suggests he’s found himself a two year deal and that Geelong are doing the right thing by him and helping him get to that club as a DFA. I very much doubt it will the Swans. Harley has previously said he wasn’t on our radar. St Kilda is my best guess. They must still have loads of cap space and need to take a few risks.

That would make some sense, then- he seems a pretty handy forward.

[0918330512]

Both of those guys were more than serviceable this year for Geelong.

That would make some sense, then- he seems a pretty handy forward.

Almost a slap in the face to AJ tho

[stevoswan]

Almost a slap in the face to AJ tho

Menzel hasn't just undergone a knee reco.....he's been back a few season's. I think AJ would be happy for him.

[Danzar]

I have charts on hit rates of picks (live picks only, father/sons etc are excluded):

This one shows the percentage of players taken in each band of picks who get to 100 games. 20 to 40 isn't a huge step down, and even 40 to 50 has a bit of a hit rate. Take several shots in these ranges and you're likely to get something out of it. Three picks in the 30s is probably going to have odds around that of two picks in the 20s.

Barry is right that a 1 in 3 hit rate of 100 gamers from picks 30-40 is a good outcome, but that's also true of all picks past pick 10.

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This one is the log-regressed value we use for each pick at HPN. The main noteworthy feature is, compared to the AFL's Draft Value Index (academy points) the picks in the back end of the second round have more value - the AFL undervalues them compared to what they actually produce. A general rule of thumb is if you've got say pick 22 from early in the second round, you should trade for any two picks before about pick 35 (Port's trade in 2016 that netted us 9 and 19 got them 14, 17 and 31 was a bet something like this that worked out for both parties - Florent and Hayward on one side, Powell-Pepper and Marshall on the other, jury still out on Atley and Drew).

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Example theoretical equivalent expected values are: pick 5 likely to give about what two pick 25s or three pick 43s do. The "sure thing" status of very high picks drops off a lot after about pick 3, and pick 5 usually goes well but has some notably ordinary recruits attached to it such as Xavier Clark, Matt Buntine, Brock McLean and Jarrad Grant.

Those values are all a bit theoretical, and clubs simply would not trade backwards just to get the equal odds suggested here. They'd want significantly greater odds from sacrificing the high pick. In reality everyone puts a premium on the early picks because they're surer things, they have prestige, you have a wider range of choices about who to take, and because list spots are finite. Carrying multiple guys as bets on getting at least one good best 22 player has a cost in terms of list spots. If you did it three years in a row, you might be carrying ten or twelve guys in the hope of getting what 3 high picks could give you.

(Plus I think list managers have a bias towards not trading early picks because of reputation risk).

But clubs do trade backwards occasionally, and to good effect. They do much more in US sports with drafts, and I reckon we're a bit too conservative about trading down to take multiple shots in the AFL. This is, after all an unusually team oriented game, and 22 good players is a lot of players, and hard to get quickly. Quantity has its own value, and spreading your risk over more players means less eggs in one high pick basket who might blow an ACL. I also think the "trade backwards and take multiple picks" approach probably needs to be done as a long term game. There's an unavoidable failure rate to taking a higher quantity of second and early third rounders, but if done consistently over several years it should smooth out the probabilities and ensure enough successful strikes to help build a team.

Upshot: If we get Blakey at 7 that leaves picks 37, 38 and 40, and at least one of those 3 later guys would be expected to work out as well, and sometimes a second guy might work out too. Especially if we choose to believe Sydney are, through Beatson and co, better at drafting and developing from the middle part of the draft than the average club is. These averages and probabilities do, after all, include players selected by the clubs who are worst at drafting and developing players.

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Ripper of a post R-1, thank you

[Auntie.Gerald]

How does buddy rate in influencing a season or game vs someone else who has played the same amount of games ?