2019 trading, drafting and list management: players and personnel

[Billericay]

Two first rounders for Daniher could theoretically be 17 and 18 rather than 4 and 8.

Would posters rather give up pick 4 for Daniher or Papley? The alternative would be to try and split pick 4 into two lower picks (8ish and something) and give up something around pick 8 plus a second rounder for Daniher whilst retaining Papley?

[KSAS]

The silly season seems to start earlier each season, mainly by the media trying to fan speculation. I read in the HS today that if we get Daniher who has a year remaining on his contract, that we can't keep hold of Papley! Gee I didn't know there was a rule you must trade out a player who is on a 4 year contract if you trade in a player who had 1 year remaining.

Daniher has already said he's committed to Essendon for next year (beyond that who knows). Papley has not asked to be traded & the Swans have also said he's not for sale. I'm ignoring the continual noise surrounding this because that's all it is. Makes sense to try get Daniher next year for nothing when he becomes a RFA, which is most likely behind his chat with Harley imo.

I also think Jones will re-sign after he finishes shopping himself around, because he'll find it's not worth to leave club he's happy at & poised for success again, for club like St Kilda for just a few dollars more. He's better off re-signing for another couple years when he becomes a RFA & then re-assess.

[dejavoodoo44]

The silly season seems to start earlier each season, mainly by the media trying to fan speculation. I read in the HS today that if we get Daniher who has a year remaining on his contract, that we can't keep hold of Papley! Gee I didn't know there was a rule you must trade out a player who is on a 4 year contract if you trade in a player who had 1 year remaining.

Daniher has already said he's committed to Essendon for next year (beyond that who knows). Papley has not asked to be traded & the Swans have also said he's not for sale. I'm ignoring the continual noise surrounding this because that's all it is. Makes sense to try get Daniher next year for nothing when he becomes a RFA, which is most likely behind his chat with Harley imo.

I also think Jones will re-sign after he finishes shopping himself around, because he'll find it's not worth to leave club he's happy at & poised for success again, for club like St Kilda for just a few dollars more. He's better off re-signing for another couple years when he becomes a RFA & then re-assess.

I tend to think that the period before trade week, is a bit like a zombie movie. Virtually nothing is reality based, but no matter how hard you try to kill off the rumours, they always still seem to survive.

[Auntie.Gerald]

Two first rounders for Daniher could theoretically be 17 and 18 rather than 4 and 8.

Would posters rather give up pick 4 for Daniher or Papley? The alternative would be to try and split pick 4 into two lower picks (8ish and something) and give up something around pick 8 plus a second rounder for Daniher whilst retaining Papley?

I think we will force paps to stay as he is on a contract that works us very well and we will say we will review year to year

For me a lot depends on jones as well as to whether we need to split pick 4 and or use our future first round pick next year

Not impossible to have jones to the bombers with something like draft pick 23 for JD to come Sydney

Or if we want two picks for pick 4 to trade in 3/4th year talent to even out our squad experience and competitiveness in 2020/2021

Ie the jones to the bombers possibility in comparison:

Chad Wingard two x all australian former pick6
traded by Port Adelaide for Ryan Burton, No. 18 and No. 40

Jaeger O'Meara former pick1 and only 22yrs of age at the time but serious injuries
traded by Gold Coast for No. 10 and 2nd round selection

[Auntie.Gerald]

Listening to KB interview on the Swans' website, I got the feeling that KB didn't value the first round in this year's draft that highly and seemed willing to trade out our pick 4 and look for value in the lower rounds of the draft.

It's hard to imagine our forward line with Buddy and Daniher. I suppose Reid could go back and play as a key defender, which wouldn't be all that bad. I would worry about the menagerie of young key position players that would find it hard to see a pathway to AFL footy.

It seemed that most were in agreement that we needed more midfield depth, but if the rumours are true, then we would be trading out midfielders for KPPs.

At first inspection, it doesn't look right, but teams usually find a way of working through these things and get the balance right in due course.

It's building up to an active and complex off season.

I also thought KB also sounded very open to our pick 4 being used for other options

KB did sound like he saw value though later in the draft because the talent was “not as obvious” in his words which was interesting

[Faunac8]

It’s always an intriguing time of the year for supporters although for us it’s come about a bit earlier than usual. Lots of chatter and conjecture about with the so called footy media pack throwing up their their reports based on conversations with unnamed club insiders.
I have faith in our recruiting team and after all who from the media and for that matter, the general public foresaw the announcement on October 1st 2013 ?
Not sure why but I have an inkling that something similar unforeseen by the pundits just might be in play by the Swans this year or possibly next.

[Melbourne_Blood]

It makes zero sense for us to pay in picks for JD this year when we could get him for free next year. It’s almost like Essendon want to move him now and get a good return rather than comp pick next year. Perhaps they are driving the speculation ? Maybe they are asking him to do a Hanners and take one for the team. Who knows , can’t see us bending over to take him this year though.


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[707]

I'm happy for some organic growth for the next 12 months, retain players, take our picks to the draft and reassess needs end of 2020 when it will be clear what picks we have and where Campbell and Gulden are projected in the draft.

Daniher BTW will have either become fit, stayed in the medical room, made up his mind but will also be a RFA so we can get him for free or drive a hard bargain under threat of matching from the Injectors.

I'm getting fearful however that this is going to turn into mush for us :-( One of the most important off seasons for us since 2009, have to hold our nerve and make the right decisions..

[AnnieH]

I'm happy for some organic growth for the next 12 months, retain players, take our picks to the draft and reassess needs end of 2020 when it will be clear what picks we have and where Campbell and Gulden are projected in the draft.

Daniher BTW will have either become fit, stayed in the medical room, made up his mind but will also be a RFA so we can get him for free or drive a hard bargain under threat of matching from the Injectors.

I'm getting fearful however that this is going to turn into mush for us :-( One of the most important off seasons for us since 2009, have to hold our nerve and make the right decisions..

Kinnear is in charge.
Don't panic.
He's the best in the business.

[Molly dooker]

Kinnear is in charge.
Don't panic.
He's the best in the business.

++++1

[Mountain Man]

Id be very pissed off if I was Sinclair.

He came in a 'swap' that let Jetta go back to the west, and has played well above expectations throughout his time with us. His value was dramatically shown on his injury this year.

Most on here seem to think he is really a forward-relief ruck, rather than a #1 ruck.

The addition of Daniher (and the hoped for return of Naismith) would leave Sinclair without a role in our best 22.

[Aprilbr]

I certainly concur with the view that this is the most critical trade period for us in quite a while. Maybe Joe Daniher will make the decision easy for us and decide to stay at the Bombers? If this occurs, then we need to be very careful what we do with Pick 4 and, of course, Papley. Our clear need is a proven ball winner who can win the contested football as we have dropped to the bottom of the ladder on that count. We also need forward help for Buddy and a tall defender. Those areas should be our priority.

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[bloodspirit]

I'm intrigued to see how it all plays out. I place my faith in our recruiters. I don't want to lose Papley unless it makes it possible for us to trade in someone else worthwhile (not Daniher). Pick 4 is the absolute most I could live with paying for Daniher. I agree he's worth a fair bit despite his injuries (25 yo AA KPF) but even pick 4 feels too steep. Particularly, and this is a point that hasn't been raised yet in this context I don't think, particularly in light of his salary. If he has a big salary then that definitely reduces how much we pay for him in pick wise. If he's on $900K (as someone posted), even if only for a year, and if we are going to pay that salary in full, then that dramatically drives down his trade value (as with Hanners).

On another note, I see that Todd Goldstein has re-signed with North. Tough luck Geelong. Not bad for us because as supply goes down, demand for Darcy Cameron may increase and we stand to get a better price if we trade him out. I guess Cameron leaves if he sees himself as #3 ruck here and has prospects of becoming #2 ruck or better somewhere else (e.g. GWS). However, if we trade out Cameron, we need to trade in another ruck. Does anyone think there's any chance we're chasing Brodie Grundy? Word is he's holding off re-signing with the Pies because they aren't offering him a long enough deal and other clubs are wooing him. Still think it's most likely Grundy stays. Very hard to see the Pies letting him go unless he's really unhappy there, which doesn't appear to be the case. More realistically, I haven't really seen him play but someone suggested that Nicholls could be a good get as a pure ruck and, if that's right, that makes sense to me as a good replacement for Cameron.

[bloodspirit]

Today they have reviews for Thurlow and Menzel up on the Swans website. They're a bit light on for my liking. I'm not sure how much to read into Stevie J's comments about Menzel in terms of whether Menzel will be retained. He says "we'd love to see what he's capable of after a full pre-season" - but I note that there's an "if" there as in "we would love to.... (if he's still here)". I reckon that whether we keep him depends on what happens through the trade period and this is probably also one reason why we haven't delisted anyone yet. I still think there are going to be some players that will be delisted come what may but maybe there are more cases where it depends on who we trade in and out and so we're holding off with the delistings. In Menzel's case there is lots of optimism about getting his body right but I'm pretty sure it was the same story last year. Hopefully he's a bit closer because he's a worthwhile player when he's up and going.

Someone mentioned Bennell earlier. I'm content if we choose to recruit him but in no way can he be considered a replacement for Papely, even if he ultimately could play a similar role between small forward and midfield. He's just much too speculative.

What I was a bit more willing to infer from KB's interview is that we will probably persist with Tucker for another year.

[liz]

We also need forward help for Buddy and a tall defender. Those areas should be our priority.

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Do we? I reckon our forward line is developing fine, and will be even finer if Franklin is able to have a good pre-season and remain reasonably free from injury. And especially so if Naismith is available next year (big "if", I realise). Sinclair can play as a tall target close to goal (with McLean as his understudy / apprentice). Reid and McCartin can both play as mobile "3rd talls", and then we have the flexible Blakey who will spend time up forward. Add in a reasonable mix of developed and developing medium and smaller forwards (if Papley stays), and a couple of mids in Heeney and Parker who are handy in the forward line, plus the versatile Dawson who has also demonstrated he can kick goals, and it's a handy mix. This year there were a few games when the forward line didn't function well as a unit, but on the whole, I reckon it did a reasonable job of generating (and even converting) scoring shots when the ball was delivered to them with purpose.

There seems little point in investing more of our salary cap and list spaces in forward line players before we have given the ones we already have a chance to develop. Finding ways to win more clearances and contested ball in the middle of the ground, and thus creating more opportunities for the forward line to go to work, seems to be the overwhelming need.

Even with tall defenders, I am not sure it's a great need. McCartin and Reid can both play down there is necessary, Melican had some ordinary games this year, but also many promising ones, and Pink's development as a dour but quick fullback in the NEAFL this year was very encouraging. I'll be surprised if he's not elevated to the senior list for next year, and I reckon he's a decent chance to play some senior football, especially if we get some injuries amongst our first choice tall defenders. He looks to be a more natural fullback than Melican, who I think is better suited to be a "bits and pieces defender" playing on opposition "3rd tall forwards" or medium forwards, or even some of the less slippery small forwards. Maybe he can release Mills further up the ground in time - I don't mind Mills as a defender but I reckon he has to be part of the answer to our midfield challenges. He was too good of a ball winning midfielder at U17/18 and NEAFL level not to be tried there at senior level.

Losing Jones and/or Papley would set our midfield back even further. And given how hard it is to persuade decent, developed players to leave their existing clubs (and even harder to persuade them to travel north), it will set a mighty challenge for the list management team if we lose both.