2019 trading, drafting and list management: players and personnel

[707]

So on balance, Kelly was obtained for effectively 2 x 14 and 24, that's for a absolute gun player in smoking hot form.

We shouldn't pay that much for a crippled Daniher. Watching with trepidation fearing we'll collapse on this :-(

[Thunder Shaker]

The point is if they dont select one in the 1st round this year it means they have to use their next 2x 1st round picks in the draft 2020 21 and not trade them.
Effectively ruling them out of the big fish race til 2022

This applies to both Essendon and Geelong. Geelong must use a first-rounder this year, while Essendon must use one this year or next.

As it stands, Geelong currently hold four first-round picks in the next two drafts. They only have to use two of them (including one this year) and they have four spare first-round picks between now and 2022 that they can trade.

Essendon's position is shakier. They currently lack a first-round pick. They do not have to use one this year but are in the position where they must use two by 2021.

Hence your remarks about being nobbled in the "big fish race" are quite correct.

[Bloods05]

He is still closely tied to the bombers and will commenting with that bias ala Lloyd.

Yep.

[Auntie.Gerald]

Dangerfield cost the Cats Pick 9, 28 and Dean Gore for a player who has won a Brownlow Medal, three best and fairest awards — he finished runner-up in the other by half a vote — and four All-Australian blazers

[Ludwig]

I can't believe this moronic club is still contemplating Kurt Daniher.
Does my head in.

Same for me, but I'm trying to find some positives in this as time passes and I can get my head around what the future looks like with Daniher in and Papley and Jones out.

What annoys me the most about the Daniher trade is a 2020 without Daniher is probably better than 2020 with Daniher, because it gives more opportunity to players we should take a closer look at, and having Daniher will use a spot that could be used for this purpose (and if Daniher can't play, it's even worse):

1. I would like to see if Menzel can get in a full pre-season and how he might fit into the forward mix.
2. Hayden McLean: I would like to see how he goes as a forward, rather than mainly as a ruckman, where he's not really qualified at AFL level.
3. Joel Amartey is a raw talent with some real upside. It should be a key year in his development and he may be ready for a few games at senior level.

It might turn out that we really don't need a Daniher in any case. We already have 2 young players McCartin and Blakey to form the core of a powerful forward line after the end of the Franklin era.

But I think Daniher is coming to us and we will lose Papley, Jones and Cameron, for no other reason than these kind of deals almost always get done. I agree with those that we shouldn't be offering much for Daniher, but I imagine that 1 of our first rounders is going to be our offer. I just hope it's not more, because it's already overs. We should also make sure we get fair compensation for players leaving.

We finished 15th. We are not in a position to show the kind generosity we have in the past.

Losing Papley and to a lesser extent Jones, is a bit of a setback, but I think we can cover both. It usually doesn't look easy at first, but other players step up and it turns out okay.

We will likely recruit a couple of decent players to cover their spots, who may not be as good, but nonetheless are AFL ready. Some of the names mentioned so far have been Taylor, Cutler, Acres, Knight and Bennell. Other names pop up as trade week moves toward a close.

If the version of Joe Daniher we get is of the 2017 variety, we will all be happy we did the trade. But it could be another Kurt Tippett, or worse. I don't think it's worth the risk. The best way to mitigate the risk would be to wait till next year and get him as a free agent, if he can prove he's fit to play. The long off season will seem even longer next year, especially when JD misses multiple training sessions.

Funny how Adrian Dodoro's stubbornness may be our salvation. But I think there will be an override from higher up at Essendon and trade will get done, for whatever terms are on the table next Wednesday evening.

[KTigers]

I think when a player says they want to leave (ala Papley or Daniher) then sure the club they are leaving predictably says
initially they are gun players and we want the world for them. The reality is the relationship between the player leaving
and the club will change substantially pretty quickly, and basically all the clubs know this (because it's happened to all
of them) and then usually a more reasonable price is ultimately agreed to. That's why Danger is only worth a pick 9, Kelly
a pick 14 and Zac Jones a set of steak knives.

[Markwebbos]

I think when a player says they want to leave (ala Papley or Daniher) then sure the club they are leaving predictably says
initially they are gun players and we want the world for them. The reality is the relationship between the player leaving
and the club will change substantially pretty quickly, and basically all the clubs know this (because it's happened to all
of them) and then usually a more reasonable price is ultimately agreed to. That's why Danger is only worth a pick 9, Kelly
a pick 14 and Zac Jones a set of steak knives.

The key to it is the clubs keeping their playing list onside. Once a player wants to go, you are generally not going to get what they are worth for the reasons you've outlined.
Collingwood have an amazing recent record of retaining core players despite what must be a very stretched salary cap. I guess the imminent possibility of a flag is a pretty decent retention tool (and lack of that possibility part of the reason for the mini exodus at the Swans)

[Nico]

I disagree with your characterisation of Harley here. Harley on Monday kept suggesting words to the effect that when a good player says he wants to come to Sydney the club is duty bound to try to make it work.

I believe him. I don't think we planned for or overtly chased Daniher. I think Joe flagged the interest and we sought to make it happen.

I think we're being stereotyped as the raiding Swans, poaching big name forwards. But I think that does not accurately reflect what occurred.

Further, I reckon Joe came to us not just because of the lifestyle in Sydney, but because he respects Harley. Now we're trying to do the right thing by him and us.

I get that he might not be what we need and that we're anxious about overpaying for him and being dudded. But he's shown taste in seeking to leave Essendon and join us, he's about to be hated by their fans and be one of us, and is reported to be a good person. In those circumstances, reckon we should be respectful to him.

I just hope Harley isn't influenced by his friendship with Daniher. Should be no mates when it comes to this stuff.

[Ludwig]

I think when a player says they want to leave (ala Papley or Daniher) then sure the club they are leaving predictably says
initially they are gun players and we want the world for them. The reality is the relationship between the player leaving
and the club will change substantially pretty quickly, and basically all the clubs know this (because it's happened to all
of them) and then usually a more reasonable price is ultimately agreed to. That's why Danger is only worth a pick 9, Kelly
a pick 14 and Zac Jones a set of steak knives.

This doesn't reflect the reality of what transpired. The Danger deal was a compromise, given he was an RFA and there were many considerations factored into the trade. I calculate that the Kelly trade went down for around a pick 2, when everything is netted out to 1 pick. Probably a fair trade given the circumstances. Jones will go for more than steak knives. He's not a free agent.

[Nico]

This doesn't reflect the reality of what transpired. The Danger deal was a compromise, given he was an RFA and there were many considerations factored into the trade. I calculate that the Kelly trade went down for around a pick 2, when everything is netted out to 1 pick. Probably a fair trade given the circumstances. Jones will go for more than steak knives. He's not a free agent.

Do they have steak knives in Thailand? You are right into steak knives at the moment. I thought pork was the go there. By the way, have you called SEN yet. A guy from the US named Harrison called this arvo and nailed it. Sounded suspiciously like you. "If the bloke has a 4 year contract then say NO". He follows the AFL closely but doesn't get the culture of asking for a transfer with years on contracts. He said we need players/midfielders to kick the ball to the forwards, not more forwards. Then went on to say JK was on the slide and we look like losing Papley and Jones. QED, but the club can't see it.

[sprite]

AFL proposing a Pre-Season Trade period.

[bloodspirit]

Cliff from Clematis told me the same thing. Asked me to check it out.

What is subreddit? What is Clematis? Who is Cliff? Am I missing the joke?

[Ludwig]

Geelong are looking to move up the draft order having acquired some top picks from WCE.

What if we offered our picks 5 + 44 (which Geelong could use as an offer for Jack Steven) in exchange for pick 14 + the 2020 1st rounder from WCE?

It comes out pretty close on value points. That would take pick 5 off the table for Daniher and indicate that we aren't ready to cough up too much for JD.


PS: Not me, Nico. I wouldn't waste a call to SEN. I've never called in to any radio station, anywhere, ever. No radio station has been able to come up with a suitable honorarium for my speaking services.

I didn't have any steak knives at home until I heard about the Daniher thing. Then I went out and bought one just in case I needed to slit my wrists if Harley offers picks 5 and 9 for him.

[Bloods05]

What is subreddit? What is Clematis? Who is Cliff? Am I missing the joke?

Clematis is where Cliff lives. He thrives on rumours. Listen to the Coodabeens online (10-12 Saturdays during the footy season), especially the talkback they do in their last 10 minutes. All will become clear.

As for the subreddit, I have NFI.

[sprite]

What is subreddit? What is Clematis? Who is Cliff? Am I missing the joke?

Cliff from Clematis is a character from the "Coodabeen Champions", an ABC radio Saturday morning program that is on through the football season. He rings in with stories he has overheard in the pub.