2019 trading, drafting and list management: players and personnel

[dejavoodoo44]

Young gun enhances top-five claims with stunning performance - AFL.com.au

GIPPSLAND Power midfielder Sam Flanders' brilliant finals performance on Sunday furthered his claims as a possible top-five pick at November's NAB AFL Draft.

Flanders was outstanding in the Power's tough eight-point loss to the Oakleigh Chargers, putting in a best-on-ground showing to boost his stocks at the business end of the season.

The powerful 18-year-old kicked four goals in the first half and finished with 27 disposals (16 contested), nine clearances and seven tackles in a well-rounded display at Ikon Park...

The clash between the sides was seen as a battle of some of the country's high-end talent, with Gippsland's Flanders and Caleb Serong taking on Oakleigh pair Matt Rowell and Noah Anderson.

Serong was also terrific throughout the contest, collecting 29 disposals, nine clearances and seven inside-50 entries. His form as a tough, contested ball-winner has continued unabated throughout the year.

Since I'm keen on either Serong or a bid on Green, it's good to see another midfield option, if both of those players are taken before our pick.

[S.S. Bleeder]

https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/...03-p52ncj.html

Article says Daniher is likely to stay at Essendon. But adds.

"should there be a late twist during the trade period, the Bombers could expect two first-round draft selections in return for him."

LOL. Two first rounders for a player that's injured most of the time? No thanks. Dealing with Dodoro would be a nightmare. Personally, I hope we pass on him or take him for free next year.

[Melbourne_Blood]

Does one Tim Taranto (draft pick 2) or one Callum Mills (pick3) make more difference in a team vs say having two top ten picks on the field ?

For me I think the best decision for our team is to have two players around draft pick 10

I think it is a very valid argument for an AFL team and statistically probably the smartest decision to diversify via two players at say pick 10ish rather then one at pick 4/5

I’d love to see any data that maybe floating around to support a for and against on this strategy ?

We have seen so many top draft players moderately successful the last 5 years or so. Why not average them out and strengthen ur team via two players

To take two picks around pick 10ish gives us twice the opportunity of getting it right and secondly if both players turn out above average then we have a much much stronger team

The contrary argument is that our draft committee think that our pick 4/5 gets us the front row seat to choose one of 5 players who are undoubtedly elite?

———

I still like the idea of being able to negotiate with a team that simply can not afford one of their drafted players from the last year or two. Ie a Jye Caldwell as an example pick 11 a year ago and a seriously emerging midfielder.
Gws have just paid a huge amount for Coniglio and they have a massively expensive midfield ie they have Kelly, Taranto, Green, ward, hopper, Whitfield and more emerging

Jye was a pick 11 but prior to 4 injuries in his draft year was ranked 5-10 as a draftee.

We trade pick 4 and pick 23 in exchange for a Jye Caldwell type player and say pick 11 in return

The pick 4 allows a team like gws to stretch out their salary cap constraints and even out the emergence of talent into their top 22 plus get their Tom green who is a top6 pick

Collingwood
Bulldogs
West coast
Geelong
Etc maybe in a similar challenge re salary cap and emerging talent

For us it gives us a very exciting midfielder who will be in their second preseason and still gives us another pick 11. Ready to get 20 games plus in 2020.
Come 2021 an important year for us - a player like Jye will be his third pre season and really humming when we need it........plus we will have another pick 11 also in their second pre season

Two players
Two picks around 10ish
Diversified yet top talent

They just drafted Caldwell , what makes you think they will want to let him go after one season ?


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[Auntie.Gerald]

Melbourne blood:

The main argument is if possible would you take two pick 11s for one pick 5 plus balance out with another 20s pick ?

Ie what formulae has more impact on a team? One player on the field that may become elite or two very good pick 11 players ?

Mills pick 3 vs two picks in the draft at pick 10 and pick 11 ?

——

Your comment MB is the perfect counter argument ie who would want to trade a pick 11 player they just recruited a year or so ago?

But there are reasons why a team can’t afford a last years top pick etc

As I mentioned above GWS has salary cap pressure and it is building year in year out as we have seen stacks of players released plus they have so much talent and experience ahead of Caldwell

Plus they get a pick 4 in return to even out cashflow on players ie recruit a pick 4 at two year contract for minimal compared to paying Caldwell 2021 large money

Their midfield is pyramid high with very expensive players - most bottom to middle teams would offer minimum below :

Coniglio $1mill pa?
Whitfield $650k pa?
Kelly $850k pa
Green $650k pa
Taranto $600k pa ?
Hopper $600k pa ?
Ward $650k pa ?

[bloodspirit]

AG, I like your thinking but I think it's over optimistic. I doubt GWS would be willing to do the deal you propose and who knows whether Jye would want to come. He might prefer to go home if he's going to be traded and there would be no shortage of suitors. But you've persuaded me: I'd sign off on that deal.

Aiden Bonar is not quite as promising a prospect but more gettable.

[111431]

The main argument is if possible would you take two pick 11s for one pick 5 plus balance out with another 20s pick ?

Ie what formulae has more impact on a team? One player on the field that may become elite or two very good pick 11 players ?

Mills pick 3 vs two picks in the draft at pick 10 and pick 11 ?

——

Your comment MB is the perfect counter argument ie who would want to trade a pick 11 player they just recruited a year or so ago?

But there are reasons why a team can’t afford a last years top pick etc

As I mentioned above GWS has salary cap pressure and it is building year in year out as we have seen stacks of players released plus they have so much talent and experience ahead of Caldwell

Plus they get a pick 4 in return to even out cashflow on players ie recruit a pick 4 at two year contract for minimal compared to paying Caldwell 2021 large money

Their midfield is pyramid high with very expensive players - most bottom to middle teams would offer minimum below :

Coniglio $1mill pa?
Whitfield $650k pa?
Kelly $850k pa
Green $650k pa
Taranto $600k pa ?
Hopper $600k pa ?
Ward $650k pa ?

I like this logic also

[bloodspirit]

AG, I like your thinking but I think it's over optimistic. I doubt GWS would be willing to do the deal you propose and who knows whether Jye would want to come. He might prefer to go home if he's going to be traded and there would be no shortage of suitors. But you've persuaded me: I'd sign off on that deal.

Aiden Bonar is not quite as promising a prospect but more gettable.

Maybe we could entice Caldwell:

* We're a good club

* He's already living in Sydney

* We can offer more money and, most importantly, more opportunity.

Your proposal is growing on me.

[Ludwig]

AG, splitting a high pick can be a good idea, especially in a flat draft year. 2017 was a good year for that kind of strategy as it was hard to separate some top 10 picks with picks going into the 20s. Some 'experts' are saying that this year is similar, although I don't know how deep the quality goes. But your arithmetic is a bit off. A pick 4 in the DVI equates to around 2 pick 17s and a pick 3 would equate to 2 pick 15s. This year looks to have a strong top 2, then a pretty good 6 or 7 picks to follow. I'm not so sure about how far the fall in quality is to picks in the late teens. In any case, it's not so easy to get another party to come to the table to do a pick swap the way the first party wants.

I would be happy to go to the draft with our current picks, but it looks as though we will be somewhat active in the trade period, even if Papley, Jones and Daniher are not involved, so we shouldn't be surprised to see some pick changes before we get to the draft. And then, who knows what kind of pick swaps we might pull off on draft night. We were certainly on top of this part of the game last year.

[bloodspirit]

Not especially in relation to the last few posts, just generally, want to point out that if the Suns get a priority pick after their first round pick (i.e. pick 2) we will likely wind up with pick 6 ( after GWS match a bid on Green). This needs to be factored in when looking at the value of our pick.

Also, for those touting splitting our pick, bear in mind that both Adelaide and Melbourne have put it out there that they may be willing to do the same and they have a better pick to offer and so we can expect to receive less in return than they might, and just generally it will be harder to get a good return with competitors.

[Ralph Dawg]

Maybe we could entice Caldwell:

* We're a good club

* He's already living in Sydney

* We can offer more money and, most importantly, more opportunity.

Your proposal is growing on me.

GWS have shown no inkling of ever wanting to deal with us. Off the top of my head, we have only ever had one player from them come to us, and he didn't last long (forgot his name).
Whenever anyone leaves GWS, they head back to their home states.
And I might be wrong on this one, but wouldn't Jye just be on the minimum draftees contract? If so, he's costing GWS bugger all and they would want to see how he progresses next year before entertaining any trade for him.
I'd say guys like Tomlinson, Corr, Bonar, Buntine, Reid, Lloyd, Cumming, Perryman and Keefe would be more likely to be put up for trade than Caldwell.
But if it could be done, I wouldn't be adverse to the idea. Just that I doubt it.

[707]

AG, I like your thinking but I think it's over optimistic. I doubt GWS would be willing to do the deal you propose and who knows whether Jye would want to come. He might prefer to go home if he's going to be traded and there would be no shortage of suitors. But you've persuaded me: I'd sign off on that deal.

Aiden Bonar is not quite as promising a prospect but more gettable.

Bonar is looking a bust, very underwhelming when he's played seniors.

[Thunder Shaker]

Not especially in relation to the last few posts, just generally, want to point out that if the Suns get a priority pick after their first round pick (i.e. pick 2) we will likely wind up with pick 6 ( after GWS match a bid on Green). This needs to be factored in when looking at the value of our pick.

The last time the AFL gave a priority pick, they gave Brisbane a pick at the end of the first round in 2016. In their three seasons before getting the pick, Brisbane finished 15th in 2014 (7 wins, 69.3%), 17th in 2015 (4 wins, 67.5%) and 17th (3 wins, 61.6%).

In the last 3 years, Gold Coast finished 17th (6 wins, 76.0%), 17th (4 wins, 59.9%) and 18th (3 wins, 60.5%).

Gold Coast's performance is similar to Brisbane's when Brisbane were awarded a priority pick. This precedent is why I think Gold Coast may get a pick at the end of the first round, not the start. The AFL don't just hand out priority picks. They've given out only one in the last 10 years.

[barry]

Gold coast have such a retention problem that they are prepared to only draft brothers or close friends in the hope they stay. Thats why they want pick 2 priority pick - to keep too friends together.

But its the tail wagging the dog. Fix the retention problem, and then you can draft whoever you like.

That should be the priority of the AFL.

[AnnieH]

https://www.smh.com.au/sport/afl/swans-step-up-pursuit-of-harley-bennell-20190904-p52nsw.html

Allegedly, we're stepping up our pursuit of Bennell.
Oh my.

[Ralph Dawg]

Gold coast have such a retention problem that they are prepared to only draft brothers or close friends in the hope they stay. Thats why they want pick 2 priority pick - to keep too friends together.

But its the tail wagging the dog. Fix the retention problem, and then you can draft whoever you like.

That should be the priority of the AFL.

Barry, you are 100% correct. Retention is a real problem for northern clubs.

I think sometimes we forget the young guys are in their late teens to early 20s. Most people of this demographic these days are still living at home and very dependent on their families. This includes the partners of the young guys. Now some might say suck it up, it's your job. This applies in the real world but in the AFL, if you are good enough, you will have a club from home saying not only will we offer you more, but we will also bring you back to your family. I bet St Kilda are already working on Ben King and his family saying exactly this. It's almost impossible for the northern clubs to counter this except the promise of a flag.