2019 trading, drafting and list management: players and personnel

[707]

Gimme Grundy for picks 5 & 9. Club must stand firm and not be bluffed by the Dodo.

[Melbourne_Blood]

They are still 12 months away from drafting, who knows what might happen during that time. For all we know they might drop off the radar all together (see Rayner this year).

If they don’t then 2 2nd round picks is going to be a good start. If we still need more points we can deal next year

Exactly ! Campbell was named BOG in the all star game on GF day , he could go top 5 for all we know ! Can we match potentially a top 5 pick and a ( maybe ) pick 20 with no first round pick ? Doubtful

[Ludwig]

I went to the HPN trade calculator to see what they calculate Daniher is worth. I have found HPN a good valuation gauge when extenuating circumstances are not involved. Daniher's lack of playing time in the past 2 years certainly downgrades his value, but perhaps puts measure to his associated injury risk. The link to the calculator is here, if you want to play around with it: HPN Trade Calculator – HPN

HPN rates Daniher a pick 27. For comparison, Papley is rated a pick 7. Zak Jones is rated a pick 13. Buddy is rated a pick 54. Our top 5 rated players, in order, are Hayward, Heeney, Florent, Papley and McCartin.

Age and recent performance are obviously factored in. The designers of HPN are RWO members and hopefully they can add to the conversation.

So a fair trade would be: Tom Papley to Essendon for Joe Daniher plus pick 34. This would be considered madness by the Melbourne media, but it actually sounds about right to me, especially given the JD is a FA next year.

Anyway, if a trade gets done, I think we will give up a top 10 pick + a 2nd rounder for Daniher, or something equivalent.

There are a number of negotiating factors to be considered:

1. Next year's draft will be compromised by the large number of highly rated NGA and academy players which would devalue Essendon's draft position if Daniher goes FA. We have a couple of good players in Campbell and Gulden, but the draft overall doesn't look great at this point, albeit it's a year out and things will change.
2. We may not rate the quality of this year's draft and feel that 1st round picks are not worth that much to us. There may not be players we are really excited about in the top 10. I watched Serong and Flanders play in one of the championship games. I thought they were good, but more like late 1st rounders. I didn't think either was as good as Rowbottom.
3. We might be happy to let our first rounders go and use the trade to get picks for next year's academy players or trading for other players this year.
4. JD went to see his Sydney surgeon when he met with Tom Harley. I imagine the diagnosis was good, so we must feel that he can overcome his OP and will be ready to play 100% next year.

We will just have to wait and see how the trade period turns out overall before making an assessment.

[dejavoodoo44]

As I started reading your post there was a report on 7 news about Rantall and another player Jackson who both switched from basketball. There was no mention of John Rantall so they're probably not related. (When my dad saw his name he asked the same question).

Yes, I read a few articles about him and there was no mention of a family connection, but as far as I know, Rantall is an uncommon surname, so it is possible. Even if there's no link, he could be a good use of our second round pick; especially if Jones goes. Tough midfielders with escape velocity, is something that I think we need more of.

- - - Updated - - -

"The club acknowledges the reason behind this request from Joe, however he is a contracted player to the Essendon Football Club," its list manager Adrian Dodoro said.

"He is a very highly regarded player at our club and we have advised Joe that ultimately we want him playing for the Bombers in 2020."

These are the words I needed to hear, Dodo will play such hard ball that we'll relent and let Joe stay at Essendon for 2020 and revisit it as an RFA next year. Please let this eventuate, be good for us, and a nice smear for Dodo! Do not cave in Swans, be prepared to walk away.

I could live with the that.

[AB Swannie]

Life is never dull. One way or another, Joe Daniher will share a forward line with Buddy at some point and won’t that be exciting.

I acknowledge the risks involved with this deal but it is one we must take. We saw last year how difficult it is to attract players to come to live in Sydney. Therefore, when a play of the caliber of Joe says he wants to come here, we must take it and hope others follow suit.

Personally, I’d prefer to use next year’s first pick in this trade. Something like 2019 Pick 25 + 2020 1st round for Daniher. This allows us to keep pick 5 for Serong and Papley. Trade Jones for 2020 2nd round. Then use multiple 2nd round and 3rd round points for Campbell & Gulden.

[Nico]

I am not convinced that we don't need to go into the draft this year. I think we need to hold on to Pick 5 and pick up a quality player one more time. So many clubs seem to be looking for established players regardless of their ability to perform in the 2nd half of their careers. Geelong and Hawthorn continually do this. If we are genuine in rebuliding the club then Daniher is a genuine risk to that. If we trade out Papley and trade in Daniher and Daniher doesn't come up then it is a double whammy that we will pay for, for years. It would be tantamount to another trading ban.

I think some people at the Swans are having very vivid dreams if all this talk is true. You must attempt to bring in the best possible youth every year and hang on to your best players. We must always be improving our bottom line. I am not convinced a risky Daniher will do this.

[Auntie.Gerald]

I think most clubs and coaching departments know how hard it is to win a GF and they would rather be competitive and in the fight and featuring around the 4th to 8th place on the ladder where ever possible in any given year as a minimum

I think the reason for this is the Geelongs and Hawthorns and West Coasts and Sydney’s know that with a stroke of luck Re minimal injuries and or the right trades fall your then anything is possible when in the hunt for a final series

With twin towers that are mobile like bud and JD and if Paps stays for one more season then next year we could be seriously competitive again

It now makes sense why we doubled down on costs in the Ruck last two seasons and kept it seriously lean

We saved serious $ in a year that didn’t matter Re the finals like 2019 while rebuilding and we now are bouncing back out for 2020 and 2021 with a more even spread amongst Ruck and key forwards

[waswan]

Hold Paps for at least another year
His dollars would be attractive to us and also Pick 9 is nothing
Draft Cerong pick 5
The Danniher trade should look similar to the Hannabery trade and we should include swapping later pick for additional picks next year

Put a decent deal in front of Jones, surely Richmond cant do anything like we can even with Danniher

[Cainit]

Bring in Daniher frees up Reid to play down back really like below team setup

AA, Reid, Melican
Mills, Rampe, Lloyd

Naismith, Hewitt,Parker
Kennedy, Blakey, Florent

Heeney , Daniher, Dawson
Ronke, Buddy, Hayward

Int Rowbottom, Mcartin, Cunningham, Orodian

[Markwebbos]

Bring in Daniher frees up Reid to play down back really like below team setup

AA, Reid, Melican
Mills, Rampe, Lloyd

Naismith, Hewitt,Parker
Kennedy, Blakey, Florent

Heeney , Daniher, Dawson
Ronke, Buddy, Hayward

Int Rowbottom, Mcartin, Cunningham, Orodian

No Papley in the side?

[Auntie.Gerald]

Dan Butler - richmondfc.com.au

Supposedly available

Anyone keen ?

[Auntie.Gerald]

Are third party arrangements still permissible in the AFL for non Collingwood clubs ?

I wonder if Joe would have part of his salary paid as a third party payment ?

My guess is that we wouldnt have access to a third party payment without a name / player as big as JD ?

So JD might only be $750k pa under the cap instead of $900k pa as an example ?

Also the agreement we put forward to JD will have multiple clauses re games played etc which protects our downside massively

Buddy deal was different because the AFL shafted is to pay in full which is very different to most other AFL contracts

[Ludwig]

Bring in Daniher frees up Reid to play down back really like below team setup

AA, Reid, Melican
Mills, Rampe, Lloyd

Naismith, Hewitt,Parker
Kennedy, Blakey, Florent

Heeney , Daniher, Dawson
Ronke, Buddy, Hayward

Int Rowbottom, Mcartin, Cunningham, Orodian

Funny, but when a took a look at a possible lineup after trades I came up with the same best 22 and thought it looked a pretty good side. We also have Stoddart, Ling, Bell and McInerney, at a minimum, who should be pushing for selection. Also agree that Reid is a better fit in defence. Adds some needed height and think McCartin would be a better fit in the forward line with Daniher; also helps toward a longer term working relationship.

If Jones goes, we should be able to trade in a quality midfielder, like Tom Cutler.

[goswannies]

When previously asked, Buddy indicated that he expected (or perhaps desired) to see our his contract, which intimated that he would retire after that at age 35.

I wonder whether having another monster forward, in Daniher, could take the physical pressure off Buddy allowing him to play as a deep forward - or a high forward with less opposition attention, and thus allow him to extended annually with us as long as his ageing body allowed (or as long as the Buddy/Joe +/- Reid/MaCartin/Blakey forward combination worked)?

If Buddy at 36 or 37 years had a reduced disposal output of 10 kicks a game, but as a deep forward still managed to convert those to 3 goals a game, would he be worth playing along side Joe?

[AB Swannie]

Anyone wanting to feel optimistic should watch this. You won’t find too many better highlights packages unless your search includes “Franklin”.

Joe Daniher - Best goals on the run - YouTube