2019 trading, drafting and list management: players and personnel

[Markwebbos]

I think 12 + 18 might be for Brad Hill.

Which would prove Freo were insane as they could have just taken pick 6 and done the swap themselves.

[Jimitron5000]

I read in the Herald Sun that GWS will entertain top-30 pick offers for Aiden Bonar, he of 6 games.
Yet, Zak Jones is apparently a second rounder!
The value of potential really is amazing!

[i'm-uninformed2]

OK, how does something like this work (recognising St Kilda might have other intentions for 13)?

Bulldogs get 18 + Bruce
St Kilda get Bulldogs 13 + 32
We get then get 13 and St Kilda's 2020 4th
St Kilda get Jones + our pick 44.

Haven't run the points on it but reckon each player ranks around 18-20, we get extra leverage for this year and a bonus pick for academy kids next year.

[Ludwig]

Reports that Carlton are willing to part with pick 9 for Papley. It doesn't necessarily mean that's a straight swap, but would still give us 2 top 10 picks this year.

It sounds so much better to me that we go to the draft with picks 5 and 9, which could really set us nicely for the future, plus knowing that we are getting 2 quality academy players next year, rather than handing over those picks for someone we could get for nothing next year as a FA.

Just from a general business viewpoint, why should we give up something of high value this year for something we really don't need next year and will probably be available for free after the end of next season?

Why should we pay out an additional $800,000 and assume the injury risk for nothing really beneficial in return?

Why would we enter into such a high risk, low reward, transaction?

From my perspective, the next season or 2 would be a good time build the team with a solid core of players to make a realistic run for a premiership in a couple of years time. Richmond are just too powerful for the next few years. The Eagles and GWS are also looking very powerful.

Something like Sam Flanders and Luke Jackson, followed next year with Campbell and Gulden, seems to put the finishing touches for a club moving up the ladder and hoping to stay there for a long time.

Joe Daniher adds so little for us the next couple of years. With a starting base of McCartin and Blakey as key marking targets in the forward line in the post Franklin/Reid era, we are already in a good position of having a strong forward line.

Even in the case that Daniher would not choose free agency and pick the Swans next year (I would give that a 10% chance), we will still be in a strong position to land an elite key forward of the Daniher class in the next few years, or develop one from within our ranks.

Getting Daniher this year seems a loser to me, irrespective of what we have to give up for him. I can make a case for recruiting Daniher this year, but it's a very weak case when compared to the alternatives.

[neilfws]

Which would prove Freo were insane as they could have just taken pick 6 and done the swap themselves.

Freo living up to their reputation as terrible traders then! There's even a Wikipedia page devoted to it.

Fremantle Football Club drafting and trading history - Wikipedia

[707]

Think most of us are in agreement that we're better of taking the risk and not trading in Daniher if the demands are too high. Agree that it's us taking all the risk at a too high price.

We're not getting the two picks Saints just got from GWS, will be used in the Hill trade. We're still getting bad unders for Jones IMO, Dougal Howard their second priority now after Hill, Jones will be last on their trade in list and we'll get dregs :-(

[bloodspirit]

Ludwig, I found the first part of your post persuasive but got less persuaded the further I read. I think you are undervaluing Daniher, especially when you write "Why would we enter into such a high risk, low reward transaction?" I would characterise this transaction as high risk, high reward. There is a real risk that he doesn't get there (hence the "high risk") but the JD of 2017 is a superstar player (like you said earlier, worth a pick 5 + 9) and that should not have been his peak. It would be a nightmare for oppositions to deal with a fit and in-form Daniher and Buddy (provided we have a midfield capable of giving them the ball). I find you are more persuasive when you are talking about the virtues of taking picks 5 and 9 to the draft rather than underselling JD.

[Jeynez]

I think 12 + 18 might be for Brad Hill.

Nah I think the Saints have killed that trade now.

Freo wanted pick 6 so they can draft a high pick before anyone bids on Liam Henry from the NGA.

[Ruck'n'Roll]

Reports that Carlton are willing to part with pick 9 for Papley. It doesn't necessarily mean that's a straight swap, but would still give us 2 top 10 picks this year.

It sounds so much better to me that we go to the draft with picks 5 and 9, which could really set us nicely for the future, plus knowing that we are getting 2 quality academy players next year, rather than handing over those picks for someone we could get for nothing next year as a FA.

Just from a general business viewpoint, why should we give up something of high value this year for something we really don't need next year and will probably be available for free after the end of next season?

Why should we pay out an additional $800,000 and assume the injury risk for nothing really beneficial in return?

Why would we enter into such a high risk, low reward, transaction?

From my perspective, the next season or 2 would be a good time build the team with a solid core of players to make a realistic run for a premiership in a couple of years time. Richmond are just too powerful for the next few years. The Eagles and GWS are also looking very powerful.

Something like Sam Flanders and Luke Jackson, followed next year with Campbell and Gulden, seems to put the finishing touches for a club moving up the ladder and hoping to stay there for a long time.

Joe Daniher adds so little for us the next couple of years. With a starting base of McCartin and Blakey as key marking targets in the forward line in the post Franklin/Reid era, we are already in a good position of having a strong forward line.

Even in the case that Daniher would not choose free agency and pick the Swans next year (I would give that a 10% chance), we will still be in a strong position to land an elite key forward of the Daniher class in the next few years, or develop one from within our ranks.

Getting Daniher this year seems a loser to me, irrespective of what we have to give up for him. I can make a case for recruiting Daniher this year, but it's a very weak case when compared to the alternatives.

[Markwebbos]

There's an assumption on RWO that we are going to give up two top ten picks for Daniher.
I'm happy to stick my neck out and say we will not be doing that.

Trading is all about playing the game, with posturing on both sides. It's very hard to know what each side actually wants to do:

*Bombers say he's a contracted player we'll do everything we can to keep him, but may be keen to get more for him now than they would in a year's time (and if he stays injured they'll get nothing).
*Swans say we'll do whatever it takes to get him, but may (or may not) be keen to actually fail to get him this year and take their chances next.

I think the Fantasia decision, and the movements at the Saints at least mean things are inching forward. If we got pick 18 from Saints for Jones and chucked in something else you never know that might go close to getting it done for Daniher.

I also wonder what the arrival of Daniher means for Sam Reid?

[Blood Fever]

Reports that Carlton are willing to part with pick 9 for Papley. It doesn't necessarily mean that's a straight swap, but would still give us 2 top 10 picks this year.

It sounds so much better to me that we go to the draft with picks 5 and 9, which could really set us nicely for the future, plus knowing that we are getting 2 quality academy players next year, rather than handing over those picks for someone we could get for nothing next year as a FA.

Just from a general business viewpoint, why should we give up something of high value this year for something we really don't need next year and will probably be available for free after the end of next season?

Why should we pay out an additional $800,000 and assume the injury risk for nothing really beneficial in return?

Why would we enter into such a high risk, low reward, transaction?

From my perspective, the next season or 2 would be a good time build the team with a solid core of players to make a realistic run for a premiership in a couple of years time. Richmond are just too powerful for the next few years. The Eagles and GWS are also looking very powerful.

Something like Sam Flanders and Luke Jackson, followed next year with Campbell and Gulden, seems to put the finishing touches for a club moving up the ladder and hoping to stay there for a long time.

Joe Daniher adds so little for us the next couple of years. With a starting base of McCartin and Blakey as key marking targets in the forward line in the post Franklin/Reid era, we are already in a good position of having a strong forward line.

Even in the case that Daniher would not choose free agency and pick the Swans next year (I would give that a 10% chance), we will still be in a strong position to land an elite key forward of the Daniher class in the next few years, or develop one from within our ranks.

Getting Daniher this year seems a loser to me, irrespective of what we have to give up for him. I can make a case for recruiting Daniher this year, but it's a very weak case when compared to the alternatives.

Blakey will primarily be a mid fielder, floating forward. Very quick with a big tank and excellent disposal.

- - - Updated - - -

There's an assumption on RWO that we are going to give up two top ten picks for Daniher.
I'm happy to stick my neck out and say we will not be doing that.

Trading is all about playing the game, with posturing on both sides. It's very hard to know what each side actually wants to do:

*Bombers say he's a contracted player we'll do everything we can to keep him, but may be keen to get more for him now than they would in a year's time (and if he stays injured they'll get nothing).
*Swans say we'll do whatever it takes to get him, but may (or may not) be keen to actually fail to get him this year and take their chances next.

I think the Fantasia decision, and the movements at the Saints at least mean things are inching forward. If we got pick 18 from Saints for Jones and chucked in something else you never know that might go close to getting it done for Daniher.

I also wonder what the arrival of Daniher means for Sam Reid?

Means he won't get a dream run and automatic selection that he is used to getting.

[dimelb]

I also wonder what the arrival of Daniher means for Sam Reid?

I agree with others who have him as a defender, especially if he can float forward and kick the odd goal.

[Melbourne_Blood]

The only way I can see the saints pick swap working out for us is if the thinking is something like this : their pick 12 to us for Jones and our pick 25. Their pick 18 and their 2020 first round pick for Hill. It’s probably of similar if not better value for Freo , saints first rounder next year likely to be as good or probably fair bit better than pick 12. Freo get their two first rounders which is what they want albeit spilt over two drafts. We get adequate compensation for Jones ( well still probably dudded a little bit much better than pick 33 or whatever the talk is ). Hopefully the swans are pushing for something like this. If not Jones can look elsewhere, go to the draft , or re-sign .


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[stevoswan]

Lance from Lara would be especially happy with the picks received in the Tim Kelly trade,

As would Peter from Peterborough!

[i'm-uninformed2]

The only way I can see the saints pick swap working out for us is if the thinking is something like this : their pick 12 to us for Jones and our pick 25. Their pick 18 and their 2020 first round pick for Hill. It’s probably of similar if not better value for Freo , saints first rounder next year likely to be as good or probably fair bit better than pick 12. Freo get their two first rounders which is what they want albeit spilt over two drafts. We get adequate compensation for Jones ( well still probably dudded a little bit much better than pick 33 or whatever the talk is ). Hopefully the swans are pushing for something like this. If not Jones can look elsewhere, go to the draft , or re-sign .


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Saints won’t be using next year’s first round. They’ll need it to try to haul Ben King back from GC

I don’t think the deal re Jones is a bad one though