2019 trading, drafting and list management: players and personnel

[Auntie.Gerald]

Unfortunately the ex players, media and a lot of VFL team supporters see Sydney swans as an enemy

They don’t see Sydney, GWS, GC or Brisbane as an enhancement to the VFL

On the contrary a dilution

Therefore when it comes to trading and media it is a bit of “stuff you” when Sydney looks like they are going to advance with a new player joining

I mean the pick suggestions for JD in the media and talkback are just stupid

Essendon would have made it private and clear on what they want and we would have pulled out if it was silly season trading

jD and Sydney also would be clear on what is possible

Essendon are under no illusion on what they will have to fight for next year to get JD to re commit as a Free Agent

That is why it is being taken seriously by Essendon and all the chest beating is pushing away a problem supporter and media backlash while negotiating something important for both clubs

[Ludwig]

That would be a sensational result if we could get 18 while handing back Jones and pick 42 for a draft perspective (getting 12 off them would be a dream Lol). If we did stick to our guns and claimed pick 9 off of Carlton without giving anything back except Papley and Essendon don't trade Daniher then we would be heading into the draft with 4 picks inside the top 25!

If we made the right selections along with 2 strong talents coming in next year via the Academy, as well as the young talent under 23 we have already, that's the type of off season that can set a club up for the next 10 years for a great run at winning multiple premierships!

I say back in Dalrymple and Beatson at the draft and give them a chance at doing something this club hasn't done in many, many years by bringing in top end talent via high draft picks! (Excluding previous Academy picks)

I agree.

I think we should back away from any trade that doesn't suit the club. A few months ago, none of us were thinking that we would lose Papley or be in the market for Daniher, and were happy enough to continue down the road we are headed.

I would take pick 9 for Papley, but if we can't get that done, then he can try again next year. Maybe he'll break up with his girlfriend (similar to the claim that maybe JD will stay and fall in love with Essendon again).

I think we will find a reasonable deal for Jones. If not, I think he would sign on for another year and we can try again next year. In 2 years he'll be a free agent and can determine his own destiny. I don't think he's desperate to move back to Melbourne. I never heard the term homesickness come up in the media. It's more a matter of being a bigger fish in his pond.

I would prefer that Daniher stays at Essendon, so any deal is a bad one from my perspective. It's not that Joe is not a real talent when fit, and it's not even that much of a fitness issue, but rather, I don't agree it's the best way for us going forward.

I agree with troyjones that we just take some good picks to the draft and back our guys to land some more talent. We have a young team and if we continue building through the draft it will all come together at the right time, which is probably when Richmond will start wilting. It would be nice to win a premiership next year, but losing touch with reality can make for poor decisions. I hope our management team down fall into that trap.

One of the big downsides of backing a team from the northern states is having to listen to 'birthright' arguments from the Melbourne media. Melbourne teams should stick to their guns and never let players get away with extracting every last ounce of blood from their non-Victorian suitors. Conversely, any Gold Coast player should be allowed to return home to Melbourne whenever they wish and accept whatever's on offer.

We should be more like Freo. How did they get pick 2 for Lachie Weller? Now they're playing hardball with the Hill trade. We never seem to be the ones extracting the most from our trading. Geelong is another club that are fair traders.

If we are falling behind our competitors, it's partly because we haven't milked players the expansion clubs of their best players. No one is doing us any favours and we can't afford to give away anything to satisfy birthright entitlements.

More than any other team sport, with 18 players on the ground, is truly a team sport. One player, however great doesn't make a great team. There is a real advantage of building a team via the draft and having them come through together, learning over a period a years of how the play together as a team. Something at Swanland must be visioning a miracle with a Buddy/Daniher forward line, like the vision of Buddy/Tippett/Reid forward line. It a great dream, until you wake up to find that ll you have is a big headache.

[Blood Fever]

That is why it is being taken seriously by Essendon and all the cheat beating is pushing away a supporter and media backlash while negotiating[/QUOTE]

Well described AG. Bomber supporters particularly feral and the media feed them red meat every day. HS alone has an enormous number of footy scribes.

[Aprilbr]

That would be a sensational result if we could get 18 while handing back Jones and pick 42 for a draft perspective (getting 12 off them would be a dream Lol). If we did stick to our guns and claimed pick 9 off of Carlton without giving anything back except Papley and Essendon don't trade Daniher then we would be heading into the draft with 4 picks inside the top 25!

If we made the right selections along with 2 strong talents coming in next year via the Academy, as well as the young talent under 23 we have already, that's the type of off season that can set a club up for the next 10 years for a great run at winning multiple premierships!

I say back in Dalrymple and Beatson at the draft and give them a chance at doing something this club hasn't done in many, many years by bringing in top end talent via high draft picks! (Excluding previous Academy picks)

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I very much agree with this approach and scenario.

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[KSAS]

I'm going to try to explain it with the following:
1) Paps was actually happy to stay, as evident by his long term deal.
2) Daniher expresses interest, Swans management goes all Gaga and starts to work on how they can possibly satisfy an unreasonable Essendon
3) Know blues need a small forward, realise Paps has currency and decide he is expendable for pick 9; might also be aware Paps GF would prefer him Melbourne. Approach Blues with the trade and they jump at the opportunity.
4) Tell Paps that this is what they are working towards. Paps cracks it and his management release all the rubbish about his unhappiness. Swans then trott out lines about family reasons etc to soften the blow to supporters. Then also continue with BS about him being wanted and only trading if deal is right to demonstrate to supporters they are exercising due diligence, even though they have every intention of trading him to facilitate Daniher deal.

Conspiracy 101

I would be extremely angry with the club if there was any truth to this conspiracy theory at all, that they deliberately baited Papley to Carlton in order to load up with 2 x 1st rounders so that they get an injury proned Daniher, who is only 12 months away becoming a FA.

My theory is that Carlton were aware of Papley's relationship with his Melb girlfriend and took the chance to deliberately get him feeling uncomfortable with his Swans contract, by throwing a big alternate contract $$$$ in front of him. They probably also found & offered his girlfriend a well paid dream job so that she'd also put the pressure on Paps to request trade to Melbourne (ala Carlton).

[Auntie.Gerald]

Just curious ???

given the results of Collingwood and Geelong and evening the hawks rebuilding via significant trading.....why are some people on this forum so opposed ?

If JD was fit and firing with there be such opposition?

If JD wasn’t on the table would their be such opposition ?

Especially when kinnear beatson has been quoted as saying this draft being weaker and secondly he thinks this draft is better for later picks

I’m not saying either extreme is correct strategy ie polar opposites trade vs draft because we don’t know the draft players well enough and we don’t know the irons in the fire Re possible other trades

What I am saying Is that I think that recruitment is in cycles and if the draft pool ain’t that exciting to swim in then why jump in ?

Equally if trade players are weak then u don’t jump in that either unless filling a specific role

———

The way kinnear has discussed the draft so far is picks15 to 30ish sound like the most difficult to judge and or will have the greatest discrepancy and “opportunity” due to team needs taken prior. Rowbottom is a gem and was pick 25 last year.

——-

Split 5 / 44 in exchange for 14/17 geelong as mentioned earlier

Daniher and Dylan Clarke for pick 9 and 14 (Two first round draft picks) would be tremendous value And still possible .......and probably helps Essendon save a little face as DC is hard for supporters or the media to quantify but for us he fits a serious need with JPK leaving next year or two

Pick 17 - Go to the draft

Pick 25 - go to the draft only if ur INTEL is top notch like it was for rowbottom......OR for me I would try my very best to snare another important recruit as mentioned via a trade
ie a player that enables much greater flexibility in our game plan and brings intensity and leadership thru action and voice which we have lost in 2019.......ed langdon went for the same sort of pick as a mid 20s ......Plus Ed was a serious player for Freeo and their 6th in best and fairest and gave tremendous exit ability out wide and nullifies other teams abilities out wide via his elite running

Lewis Taylor for pick 62

Riley Knights for pick 63

Bennell for zero

[Ralph Dawg]

Just curious ???

given the results of Collingwood and Geelong and evening the hawks rebuilding via significant trading.....why are some people on this forum so opposed ?

If JD was fit and firing with there be such opposition?

If JD wasn’t on the table would their be such opposition ?

Especially when kinnear beatson has been quoted as saying this draft being weaker and secondly he thinks this draft is better for later picks

I’m not saying either extreme is correct strategy ie polar opposites trade vs draft because we don’t know the draft players well enough and we don’t know the irons in the fire Re possible other trades

What I am saying Is that I think that recruitment is in cycles and if the draft pool ain’t that exciting to swim in then why jump in ?

Equally if trade players are weak then u don’t jump in that either unless filling a specific role

———

The way kinnear has discussed the draft so far is picks15 to 30ish sound like the most difficult to judge and or will have the greatest discrepancy and “opportunity” due to team needs taken prior. Rowbottom is a gem and was pick 25 last year.

——-

Split 5 for 14/17/44 geelong as mentioned earlier

Daniher and Dylan Clarke for pick 9 and 14 (Two first round draft picks) would be tremendous value And still possible .......and probably helps Essendon save a little face as DC is hard for supporters or the media to quantify but for us he fits a serious need with JPK leaving next year or two

Pick 17 - Go to the draft

Pick 25 - go to the draft only if ur INTEL is top notch like it was for rowbottom......OR for me I would try my very best to snare another important recruit as mentioned via a trade
ie a player that enables much greater flexibility in our game plan and brings intensity and leadership thru action and voice which we have lost in 2019.......ed langdon went for the same sort of pick as a mid 20s ......Plus Ed was a serious player for Freeo and their 6th in best and fairest and gave tremendous exit ability out wide and nullifies other teams abilities out wide via his elite running

Lewis Taylor for pick 62

Riley Knights for pick 63

Bennell for zero

I think no one is against recruiting Daniher, but it is more the figures being thrown around as what is required to make the deal happen. If it plays out the way many pundits and dodo are saying, then we lose 5,9 and 2nd rounder (Papley) and Reid or McCartain for big Joe.

If the club could do what you're proposing, then most could live with that. Shame you're not the Bombers list manager Aunty!

[Auntie.Gerald]

Ps

Did anyone else see how softly softly the media on afl.com positioned this info re Jon Patton no1 draft pick in 2011

130 goals
89 games
26yrs of age

—//-


"I feel we're getting there," Giants list manager Jason McCartney told SEN Radio.

"They haven't been unreasonable … Jon, in his position, he's fit and healthy. The reason he didn't play the back-half of the year was more a mental thing.

"Our position is we're after a mid-third-round pick and we're trying to work that out with Hawthorn and what they've got and what can go back the other way."

[Ludwig]

Just curious ???

given the results of Collingwood and Geelong and evening the hawks rebuilding via significant trading.....why are some people on this forum so opposed ?

If JD was fit and firing with there be such opposition?

If JD wasn’t on the table would their be such opposition ?

Especially when kinnear beatson has been quoted as saying this draft being weaker and secondly he thinks this draft is better for later picks

I’m not saying either extreme is correct strategy ie polar opposites trade vs draft because we don’t know the draft players well enough and we don’t know the irons in the fire Re possible other trades

What I am saying Is that I think that recruitment is in cycles and if the draft pool ain’t that exciting to swim in then why jump in ?

Equally if trade players are weak then u don’t jump in that either unless filling a specific role

———

The way kinnear has discussed the draft so far is picks15 to 30ish sound like the most difficult to judge and or will have the greatest discrepancy and “opportunity” due to team needs taken prior. Rowbottom is a gem and was pick 25 last year.

——-

Split 5 / 44 in exchange for 14/17 geelong as mentioned earlier

Daniher and Dylan Clarke for pick 9 and 14 (Two first round draft picks) would be tremendous value And still possible .......and probably helps Essendon save a little face as DC is hard for supporters or the media to quantify but for us he fits a serious need with JPK leaving next year or two

Pick 17 - Go to the draft

Pick 25 - go to the draft only if ur INTEL is top notch like it was for rowbottom......OR for me I would try my very best to snare another important recruit as mentioned via a trade
ie a player that enables much greater flexibility in our game plan and brings intensity and leadership thru action and voice which we have lost in 2019.......ed langdon went for the same sort of pick as a mid 20s ......Plus Ed was a serious player for Freeo and their 6th in best and fairest and gave tremendous exit ability out wide and nullifies other teams abilities out wide via his elite running

Lewis Taylor for pick 62

Riley Knights for pick 63

Bennell for zero

These teams you mention were built through a period of strong drafts and supplemented through trading at the time when they were ready to strike at a premiership. As Victorian clubs, they have more opportunities to top up with high end talent at the right time.

Look at Richmond for example. They were a basket case until 2017. That premiership was build around drafted players who had reached the age range of 26 to 28: Martin, Cotchin, Edwards, Rance, Riewoldt and Grimes. Then they topped up with star players they raided from the Suns.

I think we are in the process of doing this, but we need to show patience. Geelong had a great stretch of success and after 3 premierships in 5 years, did a good job of staying near the top for a long time. But it's starting to look as though age has caught with them and they they too will have to rebuild through the draft.

If JD were fit and firing, as you say, and not a free agent next year, I think there would be less opposition. Everything has to be factored in when determining the value of a player. All this silly posturing by Dodoro and others is annoying.

Of course, if JD wasn't on the trade table, as you conjecture, there wouldn't be any opposition, because there would be nothing to discuss. There would just be a table with nothing on it.

The Buddy Franklin deal was a year in the making. We didn't try to get him from Hawthorn in 2012, but rather waited until he was a free agent. If we had discussions with Daniher, and he was interested incoming to the Swans, then we should have orchestrated something where he comes to the Swans in 2020 as a free agent. We knew quite well what Dodo would put us through. How did we fall into this trap?

I'm sure there's lots of stuff going on behind the scenes that will play out in the next few days and we will just have to wait and see how it all comes out in the end.

[707]

Latest Trade Winds has us coughing up 5 & 9 & a player from somewhere. I'm hearing this so frequently now that I'm worried it has some basis in fact!

Would be the most paid for any player, more than Chris Judd in his prime and uninjured. Waaay more than Dangerfield.

[Steve]

We're over a barrel with the Jones trade and won't get anything better than a pick in the 30's. St Kilda won't have anything better to offer, nor would they bother - if it came down to the deadline and we were looking at pick 30-something versus nothing, you have to take it, no matter how much you'd like to make a stand.

You look at guys we've drafted in the 30's and we might be losing out on another McCartin, Hewett, Parker, Reid, Hannebery etc by holding out and making a stand, even if we think Jones is worth a pick in the 20's.

I'm concerned we'll overpay for Daniher to get it done, but it is genuinely hard to decide what is a fair deal. On one side a player of his type is so rare and valuable, and the potential is there for him to play a number of dominant years of footy in the future. On the other is his injury issues, FA status, and desire to no longer play for his current team.

Picks 5 & 9 IMO are way too much, considering everything - when you look the last 20 years there's only a couple of trades that come anywhere close to what we'd be giving up with two top-10 picks. Bell to Freo and Carey to Adelaide were in the early 2000's, so a very different landscape back then. The only other would be Judd to Carlton.

More recently it's more difficult to compare when more top players have moved via FA instead, or even with Dangerfield that was a compromise of sorts in lieu of Adelaide trying to match a bid for him.

Losing pick 5, Papley and Jones and getting in Daniher (with the question marks over his fitness) doesn't seem like a great deal.

I suspect we're not offering that though. Pick 9 and next year's first rounder is still a lot but would probably be reasonable overall. Particularly if any other swaps or add-ons were us receiving 2020 2nd/3rd round picks to use towards Academy selections.

[Markwebbos]

... The Buddy Franklin deal was a year in the making. We didn't try to get him from Hawthorn in 2012, but rather waited until he was a free agent. If we had discussions with Daniher, and he was interested incoming to the Swans, then we should have orchestrated something where he comes to the Swans in 2020 as a free agent. We knew quite well what Dodo would put us through. How did we fall into this trap?

That's a very important question. Why the heck did Daniher make his move this year, rather than waiting until next when he's a RFA and would be out of contract? Surely we would have rather waited a year.

[Thunder Shaker]

Split 5 / 44 in exchange for 14/17 geelong as mentioned earlier

Geelong may consider using both picks. They need to use a first-round pick this year and two in total over the next four years (per AFL rule). If they use both picks then they are free to trade away their first-round pick in the next three years.

They will definitely use one first-round pick this year. They have no choice.

[Ludwig]

Here is a possible 2021 team (using my position labels which excludes bench players):

FB Melican Aliir Reid
HB O'Riordan Rampe Stoddart
CB Lloyd Florent Harrry-C
MI Hewett Rowbottom Parker
CF Mills Heeney Ling
HF Ronke McCartin Dawson
FF Hayward Amartey Blakey
Ruck Sinclair or Naismith

I've omitted Franklin and Kennedy, even though they still should be available in 2021. Also no Papley and Jones. This is young team, but looks pretty strong nonetheless. It's worth noting that Parker will still only be 28 in 2021, a year younger than Dangerfield was this year.

What's not in the team above:

1. Any players recruited, such as Lewis Taylor and Harley Bennell.
2. Players from the next 2 drafts, including this one, where we could go to the draft with 4 top 30 picks.
3. Campbell and Gulden.
4. Bell, McInerney, McLean, Foot, Fox, Clarke, Maibaum and Pink. So still a few good depth players and prospects not in the calculations.

What I want to show here is just how strong the upcoming base of players is for the Swans, in that so many good players and prospects, both on our list now and in the coming drafts, can be excluded and still looks pretty good.

The purpose of this post is to show just how much the Swans have to build on that our 2 best players can be omitted as well as all the additions to the team that will come over the next 2 draft years.

There are 2 ways of looking at this:

1. The team base is so strong that we can afford to waste a few top draft picks to put another star player (Daniher) into the team.
2. We don't need to sell the farm for anyone. We are very likely to be a strong competitive team just building through the draft and taking recruiting opportunities when good value comes along.

I personally favour option 2, but I can understand if our list managers see option 1 as the way to go. I think there is pressure on the club to return to finals contention asap and we might be willing to overpay for a top player to get him a year earlier.

At he end of the day, regardless of Daniher being a contracted player, we are in the drivers seat here. No club wants a player on their list that doesn't want to be there. Essendon will be forced to let him go when all is done. It's nearly certain that Daniher will be a Swan next year. It's just a matter of how generous we want to be to get him. I'm okay with playing fair, but there's no reason to get rolled. We are in the box seat.

[Blood Fever]

Here is a possible 2021 team (using my position labels which excludes bench players):

FB Melican Aliir Reid
HB O'Riordan Rampe Stoddart
CB Lloyd Florent Harrry-C
MI Hewett Rowbottom Parker
CF Mills Heeney Ling
HF Ronke McCartin Dawson
FF Hayward Amartey Blakey
Ruck Sinclair or Naismith

I've omitted Franklin and Kennedy, even though they still should be available in 2021. Also no Papley and Jones. This is young team, but looks pretty strong nonetheless. It's worth noting that Parker will still only be 28 in 2021, a year younger than Dangerfield was this year.

What's not in the team above:

1. Any players recruited, such as Lewis Taylor and Harley Bennell.
2. Players from the next 2 drafts, including this one, where we could go to the draft with 4 top 30 picks.
3. Campbell and Gulden.
4. Bell, McInerney, McLean, Foot, Fox, Clarke, Maibaum and Pink. So still a few good depth players and prospects not in the calculations.

What I want to show here is just how strong the upcoming base of players is for the Swans, in that so many good players and prospects, both on our list now and in the coming drafts, can be excluded and still looks pretty good.

The purpose of this post is to show just how much the Swans have to build on that our 2 best players can be omitted as well as all the additions to the team that will come over the next 2 draft years.

There are 2 ways of looking at this:

1. The team base is so strong that we can afford to waste a few top draft picks to put another star player (Daniher) into the team.
2. We don't need to sell the farm for anyone. We are very likely to be a strong competitive team just building through the draft and taking recruiting opportunities when good value comes along.

I personally favour option 2, but I can understand if our list managers see option 1 as the way to go. I think there is pressure on the club to return to finals contention asap and we might be willing to overpay for a top player to get him a year earlier.

Putting a lot of faith in Oriordan, Stoddart, Ling and Amartey. Mills is a star down back. Blakey will play midfield so Daniher could fit in up forward. McInerney earmarked for HBF. Love Papley to round it off.