2020 trading, drafting and list management: players and personnel

[Ludwig]

A funny thing happens when a team wins the premiership. Players that most rated as average suddenly are recognised as actually being elite. They just flew under the radar. If we won the premiership this year, Jake Lloyd would be in the AA team.

Can I be so bold to say that when we win the premiership the names of elite Swans' players will be dribbling off the tongues of SEN talk jockeys like saliva from Pavlov's dogs.

Coming from Sydney and finishing 16th, it could take a couple of months of intense listening to footy media pundits before realising that the Swans are even in the AFL competition.

[Ludwig]

Well this is interesting as I have been called a heretic in these circles for suggesting that the answer to our future midfield might not be Florent & Rowbottom and yet the consensus seems to be that we need an elite talent in the midfield. Forgive me but if those lads are going to be as good as everyone thinks they are, why would we need to draft another ?

Well, the RWO heretics faction is growing by the day. We may have to burn a few at the stake to set an example for those who don't want to tow the company line.

What else should we expect. Finish bottom 4 two years running and half of RWO need therapy.

[bennyfabulous]

And not in our interest to offer him a deal that would push our pick 3 back to 4. Interesting times!

I'm still not convinced we are in the market for Crouch, but then I was totally blindsided by Buddy.

If its reported in the standard Melbourne "media", then you can safely assume its fairly unlikely. Most are just bottom feeders trying for the grubbiest angle they can find. Sydney is thrown into all trade/free agent "reports" for clicks. And the Buddy deal blindsided every media "expert" so you can safely assume that none of them know anything more than any average punter.

[bennyfabulous]

A couple of years down the track Stephens will be elite and Serong just another grab and kick it player. Remember Rhys Palmer and dare I say it, Lewy Taylor.

Both Serong and Stephens will be guns in the future, i hope we can find a way to convince Serong to come play for the team he barracked for and we can lock Stephens up for a long time. That would be an awesome midfield combo to watch from 2023-2030ish.

[mcs]

My biggest worry, is we are overrating our youngsters.

Got to remember that u/22 team is basically a glorified popularity contest - not a team selected by experts but in part by the general public. Hence players like Rankine, who despite having huge potential, really only had a couple of 'highlight' games and a bunch of bog standard ones, gets in there. Plus a few others.

That plus the fact we don't have too many at the top end of the bracket really tearing the walls down at elite level. Give it a couple of years and might have a few in there however.

[mcs]

I see Serong, a player many pundits had us selecting at pick 5 last year, won the best first year player. There is much positivity around Stephens here, and he's obviously a talented kid - but arguably, Serong might have been our third best midfielder already if we'd selected him. Beetson, who gets so many draft selections right, seems to get way too cute when it comes to the (non-academy) first round picks - dare I say it, Stephens has the whiff of Paddy Vezpremi about him. God I hope that's not how it plays out.

Everyone is absolute entitled to their opinion. But can I please see this post bookmarked for future reference.

Stephens will be a jet in time - certainly way in front of Vezpremi already. Last few games really started to show what he can do.

A lot of people are willing to make judgments based on so few games about players. Surely as a swans fan, where many times great patience with players has led to great rewards should highlight that first indications are not always a good indicator of long term outcomes with players.

[Auntie.Gerald]

For me there are several areas that can make a huge difference either way to our trajectory next 3 years

Id like to put coaching on the table as one area to add to greater success........my suggestion is starting the year 2022:

We have come 15th and 15th the last two seasons. Yes we have tended to play a one on one style of footy this year which makes it very difficult for a young team to win. Yes this style of accountability and development generally leads to greater experience and ability down the line, especially when key players come back into our team like Bud, Heeney, Hewett, Rampe.

Yet I think a coach swap for season 2022 ie Geelongs Chris Scott for John Longmire would be an amazing move by the Swans. Nothing to loose and only to gain with a coach like Scott and his success and acumen.

They have both coached almost identical amount of games in AFL. Scott 44yrs of age and Longmire 49yrs of age

Scott has lead Geelong to 9 finals appearances in 10 seasons. 160 wins from 232 games = 69% win rate

Scotts win-rate of 69 per cent is the best of any coach to ever lead a club in 100-plus games plus he was the equal youngest coach to win a GF in his first year coaching.

Johnny Longmire 144 wins from 235 games = 61%

Geelongs ability to recruit on the run, blood 10 new debutants in 2012 and similar in other seasons has been remarkable when it comes to making finals footy almost every year.

Both longmire and scott are under contract until 2022/23.

Both clubs could benefit, both clubs are going through a rebuild in some ways again. The Cats a fair few debutants last year and us a lot this year last year. Both clubs are about to loose super star players next year, year after etc so will have similar list challenges.

[Melbourne_Blood]

For me there are several areas that can make a huge difference either way to our trajectory next 3 years

Id like to put coaching on the table as one area to add to greater success........my suggestion is starting the year 2022:

We have come 15th and 15th the last two seasons. Yes we have tended to play a one on one style of footy this year which makes it very difficult for a young team to win. Yes this style of accountability and development generally leads to greater experience and ability down the line, especially when key players come back into our team like Bud, Heeney, Hewett, Rampe.

Yet I think a coach swap for season 2022 ie Geelongs Chris Scott for John Longmire would be an amazing move by the Swans. Nothing to loose and only to gain with a coach like Scott and his success and acumen.

They have both coached almost identical amount of games in AFL. Scott 44yrs of age and Longmire 49yrs of age

Scott has lead Geelong to 9 finals appearances in 10 seasons. 160 wins from 232 games = 69% win rate

Scotts win-rate of 69 per cent is the best of any coach to ever lead a club in 100-plus games plus he was the equal youngest coach to win a GF in his first year coaching.

Johnny Longmire 144 wins from 235 games = 61%

Geelongs ability to recruit on the run, blood 10 new debutants in 2012 and similar in other seasons has been remarkable when it comes to making finals footy almost every year.

Both longmire and scott are under contract until 2022/23.

Both clubs could benefit, both clubs are going through a rebuild in some ways again. The Cats a fair few debutants last year and us a lot this year last year. Both clubs are about to loose super star players next year, year after etc so will have similar list challenges.

Maybe a great idea for a reality TV show ‘ coachSWAP! ‘ but I’m not sure this would ever happen in reality. If coaches are out of favour they usually get sacked, if they aren’t they stay or they are poached. I doubt we’ll ever see a straight ‘swap’ happen in footy.

I also don’t necessarily think Scott would be an improvement on Horse. His win % overall is only marginally better ( they also hold one of the biggest home ground advantages at Kardinia - whatever it’s called these days - due to its unusual playing dimensions. But take a look at their finals record. Since that flag in 2011 they’ve been very poor in finals. Haven’t progressed past a prelim.


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[The Runner]

I can't see how Crouch would be a pick 3 compo. Martin maybe, but Crouch is a round 2.

It's relative to the contract he gets offered, not his perceived worth.

[Blood Fever]

I see Serong, a player many pundits had us selecting at pick 5 last year, won the best first year player. There is much positivity around Stephens here, and he's obviously a talented kid - but arguably, Serong might have been our third best midfielder already if we'd selected him. Beetson, who gets so many draft selections right, seems to get way too cute when it comes to the (non-academy) first round picks - dare I say it, Stephens has the whiff of Paddy Vezpremi about him. God I hope that's not how it plays out.

Stephens was excellent v Cats and will be at least the equal of Serong when he gets stronger. He was selected because of our need for speed and elite kicking. McInerney the same. Serong is very good but didn't fit our needs as well. Simple really. Vezpremi comparison bewilders me.

[Ludwig]

An article on the AFL website about small forwards in demand has Ben Ronke as someone who could be one of those. I've been against delisting Ronke, mainly because I think he's too good to be delisted, but I think trading Ronke would be a good move. With Papley staying, we are loaded up with small forwards: Taylor, Gray, Foot. I don't have any of these in our best 22.

A third round pick would seem fair to me.

[dejavoodoo44]

An article on the AFL website about small forwards in demand has Ben Ronke as someone who could be one of those. I've been against delisting Ronke, mainly because I think he's too good to be delisted, but I think trading Ronke would be a good move. With Papley staying, we are loaded up with small forwards: Taylor, Graya, Foot. I don't have any of these in our best 22.

A third round pick would seem fair to me.

I would leap at a third round pick. I wonder if Hawthorn may have a slightly inflated view of his worth, as his 7 goal game was against them? Their third rounder might be really helpful, when we attempt to minimize how much we go into deficit next year.

There's also Wicks as a small forward, who sticks tackles more than Ronke, and Gulden, who was played

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...as a small forward. Although I prefer him as a midfielder, they might want to ease him into the squad.

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I would leap at a third round pick. I wonder if Hawthorn may have a slightly inflated view of his worth, as his 7 goal game was against them? Their third rounder might be really helpful, when we attempt to minimize how much we go into deficit next year.

There's also Wicks as a small forward, who sticks tackles more than Ronke, and Gulden, who was played

- - - Updated - - -

...as a small forward. Although I prefer him as a midfielder, they might want to ease him into the squad.

Of course, 'helpful' and 'Hawthorn' never really go together in my mind.

[Thunder Shaker]

Everyone is absolute entitled to their opinion. But can I please see this post bookmarked for future reference.

Stephens will be a jet in time - certainly way in front of Vezpremi already. Last few games really started to show what he can do.

A lot of people are willing to make judgments based on so few games about players. Surely as a swans fan, where many times great patience with players has led to great rewards should highlight that first indications are not always a good indicator of long term outcomes with players.

Recruiters are much better at their job than a club's fans. That's why they are working as recruiters and the club's fans are not.

Recruiters are not always going to get it right, but they would have a better success rate at recruiting than individual club fans would.

[stevoswan]

I see Serong, a player many pundits had us selecting at pick 5 last year, won the best first year player. There is much positivity around Stephens here, and he's obviously a talented kid - but arguably, Serong might have been our third best midfielder already if we'd selected him. Beetson, who gets so many draft selections right, seems to get way too cute when it comes to the (non-academy) first round picks - dare I say it, Stephens has the whiff of Paddy Vezpremi about him. God I hope that's not how it plays out.

What a strange thing to say......did Vezpremi even get a game? Stephens has already shown that he is way above Vezpremi.

On Serong, we should get in his ear in the near future. If he had barracked for Hawthorn, the Vic journo's would already be writing things like "when the Hawks lure Serong back to Victoria to bolster their midfield, ect". Although with Freo seemingly on the rise......luring him to NSW may be a challenge. We need to thrash them next year!

[707]

Correct, how much has anyone on here actually seen of potential draftees every year? We all just go on the thumbnail highlights packages and write ups to form an opinion.

Ever noticed how when you read a potential "Top 20" Phantom draft that every player seems so desirable? Then they get in the system, a couple become stars (not necessarily the suggested top picks) a few are duds, and the rest are very good to just role players.

That's where the recruiters who watch heaps of games live, watch hundreds more games on video and hone down to what players can do, what will translate to AFL senior level, what faults are coachable out and what faults are terminal.

In KB & Dalrymple we trust. Hopefully three elite kickers this draft :-)