2020 trading, drafting and list management: players and personnel

[barry]

It is simply about fairness.

The AFL and fairness are as compatible as ice cream and tomato sauce.

Unfair advantages being offered to the Suns and GWS only disadvantages the Swans because the backlash against it lumps us together with them and we get penalised.

I agree with the backlash, but not on them being unfair to begin with.

[barry]

Astute trading and lucky timing got us the high profile players. Lockett - astute trading to tear him away from the lure of Collingwood and Richmond (helped by their salary cap being full and ours being devoid of paying high end talent).

i dont think it quite played out like that. The AFL were in it neck deep to get Lockett to Sydney. They basically blocked the collingwood trade.

[The Big Cat]

i dont think it quite played out like that. The AFL were in it neck deep to get Lockett to Sydney. They basically blocked the collingwood trade.

No it didn’t. The Collingwood board did. They were worried it would impair the development of Sav Rocca

[rb4x]

Double jeopardy refers to being tried twice for the same crime, not losing your job in addition to a felony conviction sentence.

Definition "Double jeopardy: the prosecution or punishment of a person twice for the same offence"

Perhaps double penalty would be a better understood term but double jeopardy is correct as meaning double punishment. If the sentence imposed on December 2 is just and sufficient and does not impact ET's ability to fulfill his contract with the Swans, why should he be further penalised?

I would hope that ET is reimbursing the Swans for the $25k they are out of pocket for the quarantine breach.

Like most I have no knowledge of what the specific clauses exist in ET's contract that would be relevant to his offence nor am I aware of the full details of the offence. Neither the quarantine breach or the assault would be likely to occur or be condoned in my world. I do understand that there were many pressures on ET as a young aboriginal away from family and basically locked up in a quarantine hub for months. The fall out from the quarantine folly would have further affected his mental state. I would expect that with a good lawyer and by showing remorse by pleading guilty as a first offender that he will end with a good behaviour bond, a community service order and maybe a suspended jail term. If so this would not prevent him from fulfilling his contract with the Swans.

[Mark26]

I think a player like Ronke would not be delisted now as the Swans want to first see if he has any trade value. If other clubs show no interest in him then he is a chance to be delisted. I also think Ling is still a chance to be delisted pending talks with other clubs. I am pleased to see that Bell has survived. I like his aggressive attitude.

I hope we retain both Ling and Bell. Both have upside if they can stay healthy and bring a bit of agro too. I suspect there will be more cuts as others on here have intimated. And maybe a trade or two as well.

[wolftone57]

Peter Ladhams extends contract with PA.
Preuss requests trade to GWS. I can only imagine that the Swans didn't want him that much, since we must have had more loose change in the kitty than the Giants.

The available ruckmen ranks are running low. There's Peter Wright, who has said he prefers not to be a ruckman. And a couple of Richmond players in Coleman-Jones and Chol. Maybe we've made a play for CJ and are just waiting for the season to end to go public, since Richmond are still playing finals. Otherwise, it's looking like Cal Sinclair is the man in the middle next year again.

No Ruckman, No Cry! It looks as though I'm getting my wish that the Swans play ruckless, even as I was starting to change my mind. I guess it's too late to go back. They've taken me seriously.

Baydon Crossley finishes his ban in April. The panel said he did not ingest the alcoloid associated with Cocaine deliberately but it was a part of a suppliments he took which is negligence. That is why the ban was only for 12 months. So not a bad boy a sad boy.

This guy has real grunt in the Mummy way. He makes players he hits stay down and all legal. They hurt after a Crossley bump. He is also a talent. U18 All Australian ruck. He can take a good grab and hits the packs really hard. His kicking is really good too. I think we should give him a look and a chance. He could be a revelation.

Sent from my JAT-L29 using Tapatalk

[Bloods05]

The AFL and fairness are as compatible as ice cream and tomato sauce.

Not the point. You might believe that the principle of fairness is foreign to the AFL, and I probably wouldn't disagree, but it still has to be the basis on which these decisions are made. What other principle would you suggest?

[Ludwig]

It's worth noting that ET remains stood down. Now that the season is done for us, some change in this status must be made. Either he is reinstated or terminated. It's hard to know where this case stands as far as his AFL career goes, and we're unlikely to find out until a decision is made. I don't think his sentencing is relevant.

Does anyone recall or know the disposition of similar cases? Tony Olango was out of contract, so was delisted, avoiding the legal issues.

[Ludwig]

Baydon Crossley finishes his ban in April. The panel said he did not ingest the alcoloid associated with Cocaine deliberately but it was a part of a suppliments he took which is negligence. That is why the ban was only for 12 months. So not a bad boy a sad boy.

This guy has real grunt in the Mummy way. He makes players he hits stay down and all legal. They hurt after a Crossley bump. He is also a talent. U18 All Australian ruck. He can take a good grab and hits the packs really hard. His kicking is really good too. I think we should give him a look and a chance. He could be a revelation.

According to this AFL statement, Crossley's ban is already finished (June 2020):

AFL Statement: Brayden Crossley sanction

I don't recall too much about him, except that he was rated very highly at some point in his draft year, but ended up going to the GC in the 3rd round. Agree with you that he should be added to the list of players considered for a ruck/forward spot.

[Scottee]

Delistings announced:

https://www.sydneyswans.com.au/news/826644/swans-make-list-changes

[dejavoodoo44]

I don't think ET can be delisted, but rather can be terminated, assuming he breached his contract. We may wait until the end of the contract year, which ends this month. I think this will happen, but it's a legal matter, so not clear if he actually did breach his contract. I've just assumed he had, without actually ever seeing an AFL player contract.

I was a bit surprised about the Stoddart delisting. He played 2 games in each of his 3 years. I thought his last game was his best, but was unfortunate to suffer a season ending back injury afterwards, which likely contributed to his delisting. We also do have an excess of halfback flanker types, and still have plenty of depth in that area. In fact, Reynolds and Rowles would fall into this category as well. I know a lot of RWOers had a negative impression of him, but I always liked his game and thought he was a solid chance of being a long-term AFL player.

Clarke and Thurlow having good years and holding spots in the side through the end of the season, put additional pressure on developing players who have seen little AFL action to stay on our list.

The delisting of Knoll and retention, so far, of both McLean and Amartey may hint of our recruiting intentions. We probably will recruit a ruckman, and might not go hard for a top line forward. It could also be a bit of another kicking the can down the road year, not finding a KPP on the market at a price we are willing to pay. It's also a positive for a Paddy McCartin signing.

These initial cuts favour a trade and draft period of 3 draftees, Paddy McCartin, a ruckman (one of Hayes, Wright, CCJ or Chol) and a list reduction of 1 with an ET termination, and Ronke on the trade table. McLean and Amartey are not safe just yet.

Yes, of the delistings, Stoddardt was the one I was a bit disappointed with. I thought that he had a very promising NEAFL season in 2019, and it was unfortunate that he got injured, just as he was starting to transfer that form to AFL level. I also agree with the rest of what you posted, except that I really have my doubts about Paddy McCartin playing again.

To fully explain why, would require a long post about neuroscience, rather than football, so instead, I'll just try to give a brief sketch.

The main neuronal damage in concussion is to the axons: which are the longer parts of the neuron, which convey signals to other neurons. There are two lingering conditions that can arise from axonal damage. One is post-concussion syndrome and the other is chronic traumatic encephalopathy. PCS has a range of symptoms, such as, dizziness, memory loss, confusion, etc. This is because the damage that occurred in the concussion, means that communication between neuron to neuron, and brain area to brain area, is compromised. These symptoms gradually lessen, as axons regrow and undamaged axons sprout new connections. I suspect that this is why Paddy has improved.

However, getting over PCS, doesn't mean that CTE is not a problem, since the cause is a bit different. Because axons are much longer than they are wide, they need structural support. A major part of the internal support network is provided by tau proteins. When axons are damaged in a concussion, these tau proteins are released and then they tend to form tau tangles. These tangles are a major cause of dementia, because they not only get in the way of effective neuronal communication, they also damage adjacent healthy neurons. Which releases more tau proteins, that in turn, form more tangles.

While some new research is suggesting that CTE may be able to be picked up by diffusion tensor imaging, it's generally only conclusively diagnosed post mortem. However, with the number and severity of concussions that Paddy has had, I think that it would be a fair assumption, that at least, he would have a much higher risk of developing CTE, than players who have not been concussed. So on the precautionary principle, he probably should limit himself to a sport with less contact.

[bloodspirit]

Really intriguing suggestion with Crossley - got me interested. Thanks wolfie. Here's a somewhat out of date profile from afldraftcentral: https://afl.draftcentral.com.au/player/brayden-crossley/. Suggests that Crossley has good strength and physicality but isn't particularly good at jumping and needed to work on his tank (which he has presumably done by now).

I agree with most of what Ludwig's had to say.

Re: ET

1. I haven't seen his contract but I would confidently expect that all player contracts allow players to have their contracts terminated if they fail to fulfil certain obligations like not bringing the club and the AFL into disrepute. Potentially this could be invoked even if he was not convicted for an offence.

2. I don't know much about the facts of the case but I think it more likely than not that as a young, first-time offender, he will avoid gaol for his crimes.

3. I think the reason the club has not announced a more long term decision is because they are 1. keeping an open mind; and 2. waiting to see the outcome of the court case (obviously if he gets gaol, he's out); and that the ball may be in Elijah's court to some degree to show that he is changing his ways. Personally I support such an approach. I don't think it is essential we get rid of him. I do think it is essential that we sanction him for what has happened in a meaningful way (as we have done but we would need to go substantially further), although it is important to take account of the punishment that is imposed by the justice system also. I also think that we shouldn't keep him, and give him another chance, unless we are really convinced his attitude has genuinely and significantly shifted (which doesn't provide any guarantees, of course).

I do think there will be more players out the door. I also hope Ling and Bell survive the cull.

I would be happy to see us draft P. McCartin. Would also be interested in Jesse Hogan at the right price. Definitely need a ruck, and given we have delisted Knoll, I'm confident we have someone lined up. I hope it's not Hickey. I suspect it isn't Hickey.

[Scottee]

I am sorry to see Harry Reynolds go because I thought he had a bit of dash and really good footy smarts.

I wish I had seen Brady Rowles play to form my own opinion. He was supposed to be super quick according to some but I guess the coaches thought his football skills weren't up to it.

Jack is a bit stiff to not a game before getting delisted and Stoddart is really the victim of an abundance of quality mid sized backs. Knoll leaves us with even less rucks

Only one delisting from the senior list so I wonder if they are going to expand it from 38 to 40 and take the minimum picks in the draft.

[Ludwig]

Yes, of the delistings, Stoddardt was the one I was a bit disappointed with. I thought that he had a very promising NEAFL season in 2019, and it was unfortunate that he got injured, just as he was starting to transfer that form to AFL level. I also agree with the rest of what you posted, except that I really have my doubts about Paddy McCartin playing again.

To fully explain why, would require a long post about neuroscience, rather than football, so instead, I'll just try to give a brief sketch.

The main neuronal damage in concussion is to the axons: which are the longer parts of the neuron, which convey signals to other neurons. There are two lingering conditions that can arise from axonal damage. One is post-concussion syndrome and the other is chronic traumatic encephalopathy. PCS has a range of symptoms, such as, dizziness, memory loss, confusion, etc. This is because the damage that occurred in the concussion, means that communication between neuron to neuron, and brain area to brain area, is compromised. These symptoms gradually lessen, as axons regrow and undamaged axons sprout new connections. I suspect that this is why Paddy has improved.

However, getting over PCS, doesn't mean that CTE is not a problem, since the cause is a bit different. Because axons are much longer than they are wide, they need structural support. A major part of the internal support network is provided by tau proteins. When axons are damaged in a concussion, these tau proteins are released and then they tend to form tau tangles. These tangles are a major cause of dementia, because they not only get in the way of effective neuronal communication, they also damage adjacent healthy neurons. Which releases more tau proteins, that in turn, form more tangles.

While some new research is suggesting that CTE may be able to be picked up by diffusion tensor imaging, it's generally only conclusively diagnosed post mortem. However, with the number and severity of concussions that Paddy has had, I think that it would be a fair assumption, that at least, he would have a much higher risk of developing CTE, than players who have not been concussed. So on the precautionary principle, he probably should limit himself to a sport with less contact.

Thanks for the informative reply on concussion. I was wondering if tau proteins always tangle in brain trauma, because if they do, then it would seem that all concussions would lead to brain morbidity of some sort. I suspect that there are normally functioning tau proteins and some events that cause tau proteins to tangle, but not all. Could you elucidate on this? There are lots of concussions in football, so it would be prohibitive to the game continuing if it were known that every concussion causes this positive feedback tau tangling effect.

I agree that this should be a major consideration in recruiting Paddy McCartin.

[Ludwig]

I am sorry to see Harry Reynolds go because I thought he had a bit of dash and really good footy smarts.

I wish I had seen Brady Rowles play to form my own opinion. He was supposed to be super quick according to some but I guess the coaches thought his football skills weren't up to it.

Jack is a bit stiff to not a game before getting delisted and Stoddart is really the victim of an abundance of quality mid sized backs. Knoll leaves us with even less rucks

Only one delisting from the senior list so I wonder if they are going to expand it from 38 to 40 and take the minimum picks in the draft.

Our delistings are a reflection of the difficulty we face this year in ranking the bottom rungs of our playing list in view of the lack of a NEAFL competition and injuries in the cases of Reynolds, Stoddart and Knolls. Perhaps the Stoddart injury dropped him behind Foot in the delisting race.

I remember in the year Jordan Foote was delisted, he started the season on fire in the NEAFL, then got injured and missed most of the remainder of the season. I was hoping we would give him another year, but it's a cruel game.

The positive spin on this is that it reflects how much depth there is in our list. Every delisted player seems a bit hard done by.