2020 trading, drafting and list management: players and personnel

[bloodspirit]

I didn't know where to put this, but It looks as though COR has been training with Tipperary back in Ireland and has been given the thumbs up by the Swans to play finals.

I think it's a good move from the Swans as the Irish lads sacrifice a lot in coming over. Let's hope he returns elated and not with an injury.

Tipp boost as O'Riordan available for Munster final

How Colin O'Riordan convinced Sydney Swans to release him for the Munster final

Thanks for sharing, Mark. The second article is the better read. Good on Colin, and good on two of our club captains going in to bat for him!

[Auntie.Gerald]

A bullish optimistic view would be we could be a top4 team by 2023. Others may argue that it is unacceptable to be lost in the wilderness still in 2021.

Be that as it may, two extremes on this forum rarely meet.

So if we could make the top4 by 2023 what adjustments would be needed?

I don't think the team below has enough X factor and controlled caos players that can bust open a game like we saw Geelong vs Tigers in the 2020 GF

2023 guess?

B Melican? Rampe? Gould?

HB Lloyd Mills Dawson

C Florent Rowbottom Blakey

HF Heeney T.Mcartin McInerny

F Papley P.MCartin? Hayward

Foll Hickey Parker Hewett

Interchange: Gulden, Stephens, Cunningham, Campbell, Pick3 from 2020 draft?, Ling?

[707]

I didn't know where to put this, but It looks as though COR has been training with Tipperary back in Ireland and has been given the thumbs up by the Swans to play finals.

I think it's a good move from the Swans as the Irish lads sacrifice a lot in coming over. Let's hope he returns elated and not with an injury.

Tipp boost as O'Riordan available for Munster final

How Colin O'Riordan convinced Sydney Swans to release him for the Munster final

Happy for you to post this where ever we can notice it! Good news and a good read

[dimelb]

Happy for you to post this where ever we can notice it! Good news and a good read

Ditto. I'm very pleased to see this; I think COR is underrated by many of our locals. He is increasingly knowledgable about where to be and is, I think, one of our best at accurate kicking. I'm expecting he will be more regular in selection for us in the coming season.

[Melbourne_Blood]

Ditto. I'm very pleased to see this; I think COR is underrated by many of our locals. He is increasingly knowledgable about where to be and is, I think, one of our best at accurate kicking. I'm expecting he will be more regular in selection for us in the coming season.

I agree. He hasn’t done much wrong and ha some good attributes. Would be nice to see him get a solid crack with a bit of license to dash off half back.


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[Thunder Shaker]

A repeat of the draft simulation I posted at reply #3722, with current draft picks:

Academy and father/son players:

#1 Jamarra Ugle-Hagan - Western Bulldogs Academy
#8 Braeden Campbell - Sydney Swans Academy
#9 Lachlan Jones - Port Adelaide Academy
#12 Alex Davies - Gold Coast Academy - can be pre-listed by the Suns
#18 Reef McInnes - Collingwood Academy
#20 Errol Gulden - Sydney Swans Academy
#26 Joel Jeffrey - Gold Coast Academy - can be pre-listed by the Suns
#28 Brandon Walker - Fremantle Academy
#30 Joel Western - Fremantle Academy

Current draft picks for clubs with Academy players in the first 30:

Western Bulldogs - 26, 33, 41, 42, 54, 90
Sydney Swans - 3, 31, 34, 43, 60, 82
Port Adelaide - 35, 47, 57, 59, 73, 95
Collingwood - 14, 16, 65, 70, 75, 92
Fremantle - 12, 32, 55

Hypothetical draft:

* #1 Jamarra Ugle-Hagan (2400 points) - Bulldogs match with picks 26, 33, 41, 42, 54 (2319 points, incurring an 81-point deficit).
* Sydney drafts someone with pick 4.
* #8 Braeden Campbell (1240.8 points) - Sydney Swans match with picks 31, 33, 40 (1598 points). Pick 40 becomes pick 44.
* #9 Lachlan Jones (1175.2 points) - Port Adelaide match with picks 33, 42, 52 (1204 points). Pick 52 becomes pick 71.
* Collingwood drafts someone with pick 14.
* Collingwood drafts Reef McInnes with pick 16. (Collingwood's remaining picks after pick 16 are insufficient to match an Academy player in the first round.)
* #20 Errol Gulden (729.6 points) - Sydney Swans match with picks 43, 52 (629 points, incurring a 100.6 point deficit).

Campbell at 7, Gulden at 20: Deficit is 175.0 points.
Campbell at 8, Gulden at 20: Deficit is 100.6 points.
Campbell at 9, Gulden at 20: Deficit is 35.0 points.
Campbell at 9, Gulden at 18: Deficit is 93.4 points.
Campbell at 10, Gulden at 20: No deficit.

The actual deficit will vary according to the draft position of the other prospective Academy draftees. I have ignored the Suns Academy players in this simulation.

Will Sydney choose a deficit? Will there be a live pick trade to avoid it if Campbell is drafted early?

[Auntie.Gerald]

Thanks TS
Very practical guide

[Ludwig]

Campbell at 7, Gulden at 20: Deficit is 175.0 points.
Campbell at 8, Gulden at 20: Deficit is 100.6 points.
Campbell at 9, Gulden at 20: Deficit is 35.0 points.
Campbell at 9, Gulden at 18: Deficit is 93.4 points.
Campbell at 10, Gulden at 20: No deficit.

The actual deficit will vary according to the draft position of the other prospective Academy draftees. I have ignored the Suns Academy players in this simulation.

Will Sydney choose a deficit? Will there be a live pick trade to avoid it if Campbell is drafted early?

If we finish 14th or lower we can absorb a 100 point deficit without dropping a spot (assuming Nick Daicos goes before our pick). In any case, it's unlikely that we will drop more than 1 spot under most scenarios. Not a big deal.

[Thunder Shaker]

Thanks TS
Very practical guide

It's not going to be super accurate, but it does allow us to gain some insights.

* The Bulldogs are looking at a small deficit if JUH is drafted at pick 1. They may choose to wear this deficit. They could erase it by swapping a future fourth-round pick, but that would leave their 2021 draft looking quite bare (they have already traded away their future 2nd-round and 3rd-round picks). If JUH is not drafted until pick 2, they gain 386.4 points and end up with a surplus of 305.4 points (equivalent to pick 48).
* Sydney are looking at a deficit of about 100 points if the players are picked at 8 and 20. If the players go earlier, a live pick trade may have been arranged to cover the shortfall.
* Port Adelaide have enough draft points to match a bid on Jones at 8. It's more likely that Port may end up with surplus picks. I'm expecting they will hold their remaining picks.
* Collingwood still hold two first-round picks, an unusual holding for a club with an Academy prospect that is likely to be drafted in the first round. I expect Collingwood to use their first pick to draft from the open pool, and their second pick to draft Reef McInnes directly. If McInnes is bid on before their first pick (14), they will match with their first pick and keep their second pick. It is unlikely that the bid matching will see their second pick fall out of the first round because that would require the bid to come before about pick 8.

I didn't look in detail at Fremantle, but their draft hand is looking a little light for recruiting two players inside the top 30. I'm expecting that they will swap their first-round pick to gain more points. A plausible trade would be pick 12 and 55 (1475 points) to Melbourne for picks 19 and 28 (1625 points). If they held 19, 28 and 32, they could draft their prospects with their second and third picks. Many other swaps are possible.

[Thunder Shaker]

If we finish 14th or lower we can absorb a 100 point deficit without dropping a spot (assuming Nick Daicos goes before our pick). In any case, it's unlikely that we will drop more than 1 spot under most scenarios. Not a big deal.

We would probably not do much about the deficit, but that is assuming Campbell goes at pick 8 or later. If there's an earlier bid on Campbell, I expect a contingency plan to be in place. A surprise bid at pick 5 would be hard to deal with without such a plan.

Any deficit would likely come off our 2021 first-round pick. The first round of the draft already has 21 picks (Essendon compo pick, GWS compo pick and Gold Coast concession pick held by GWS). That will become 22 when a bid comes on JUH, 23 when Campbell is drafted, 24 when Jones is drafted and 25 if Gulden is bid on before the start of the second round. (McInnes won't affect the first round if Collingwood chooses to use pick 14 or 16 to draft him.)

[bloodspirit]

I think it's still quite possible we will trade further down the draft to gain more points, provided we have the list spots available to accommodate that approach. We may also have to compete with the other clubs that want to gain points.

[Thunder Shaker]

I think it's still quite possible we will trade further down the draft to gain more points, provided we have the list spots available to accommodate that approach. We may also have to compete with the other clubs that want to gain points.

Another approach - We could collaborate with other clubs that need points. I expect some surplus picks to be actively traded between the clubs that need the points when they are no longer needed, and then given to clubs like North Melbourne that want to have more picks higher than 74.

[rb4x]

Collingwood supporters are hoping that a bid for Reef McInnes does not come until after 16 so that they can have two picks and then match for McInnes using 2021 points. They may need to trade their 2021 first rounder in that scenario before the McInnes match.

[Thunder Shaker]

Collingwood supporters are hoping that a bid for Reef McInnes does not come until after 16 so that they can have two picks and then match for McInnes using 2021 points. They may need to trade their 2021 first rounder in that scenario before the McInnes match.

Collingwood would have two picks no matter where McInnes is drafted. The question is whether Collingwood get two first-round picks, with McInnes being one of them.

Collingwood go to the draft with picks 14 and 16, but these picks will move down the draft and my previous posts overlooked this. By the time Collingwood get to draft, it is likely that Jamarra Ugle-Hagan, Braeden Campbell and Lachlan Jones would already have been drafted so Collingwood's picks would become 17 (1025) and 19 (948).

For Collingwood to get to use a first-round draft pick while matching a bid on McInnes, the bid must come later than about pick 8. If the bid comes earlier than pick 8, their remaining pick will be in the second round of the draft.

I doubt they would use 2021 points. It's more likely that they would use their two picks as I outlined.

[RogueSwan]

... Pies aim was to shed salary and get i to the 1st Round 10/10 ...

Does anyone here listen to the Junk Time AFL podcast?
Their latest episode has special guest Craig Coombes (recruiter). Around the 22 minute mark, he said, hypothetically, something along the lines of the AFL has had such a @@@@ty year with all the COVID breaches they didn't want another have to fine a club for salary cap breaches. So a certain club was told to fix their problem or the AFL would have to step in, allegedly.