2021 trading, drafting and list management: players and personnel

[Blood Fever]

It also runs the following risks:
* The player could end up at another club.
* The AFL could change the rules to protect the integrity of trading and the draft.
* A club that tampers with trading in this way could be penalised. For example, Adelaide could end up with a two-year ban on trading in players and a two-year ban on participating in the PSD.
* The player could be refused permission to play.
* The rules could be changed so the player is not allowed to stipulate any contract terms in the PSD. The player has to take what is offered or sit out for 12 months.
* The PSD could be scrapped entirely.
* Other clubs could exact payback in future drafts.

So such a move is not without possible consequences. The most likely way it could go wrong is for Norf to pick up Dawson in the PSD.

I expect Adelaide's going to cough up a first-round pick as a part of the trade, but with three to choose from (including next year's), there's plenty of scope for haggling.

AFL site has a video of Dawson's highlights. Seriously spectacular and made me a bit sick in the stomach watching it.

[bloodspirit]

I hate to say it but I am not so sanguine about the Crows offering us their 2022 first rounder. My reasons are:

1. They hold the whip hand because (a) Dawso is out of contract; and (b) they have pick 4 in the PSD; and

2. Only today AFC Director, Mark Ricciuto, mentioned the threat of taking Dawson in the PSD and said "it's a game of poker a bit and Charlie Gardiner is having a crack at this stage.": Adelaide Crows could pull pre-season draft heist to secure Sydney Swan Jordan Dawson (afl.com.au). That does not to me sound like the prelude to Adelaide rolling over and coughing up their first pick next year. Of course, as Director, Ricciuto is a bit removed from the dealmaking, and also the first pick could be offered in return for some stuff going the other way e.g. we swap our 2022 first and second rounders for Adelaide's first and second rounders.

Still, I will remain uneasy until a deal is done. Our position is much weaker than if we were talking about a contracted player.

[bloodspirit]

AFL site has a video of Dawson's highlights. Seriously spectacular and made me a bit sick in the stomach watching it.

Completely agree. Here's the link - if you can stomach it: Trade targets: Why the Swans are playing hardball on Jordan Dawson (afl.com.au).

[rb4x]

If I were North and Dawson went to the PSD I would have no hesitation in taking him. North with Horne-Francis and Dawson could be quite a challenge to play next year. Picks after six are quite a lottery this year so we in reality are not losing much if we take a firm stand.

[MattW]

Niall, Gleeson and Ryan article raises possibility the 4-team trade could facilitate trade for Adelaide's future first to us.

"The deal gives the Crows the chance to offer the Swans a future first-round pick tied to them as part of a deal for Dawson while holding on to a first-round pick tied to Melbourne for 2022."

[Ludwig]

But we refused the equivalent pick they were going to get from the Dogs.

That's right. Since we have already refused pick 17, we are not likely to accept next year's pick 17 or 18 (given the odd that Melbourne will make the GF next year). A future draft is always worth less than the current year because you're forfeiting one year's value of a 1st round pick.

That means the only way to up the offer is to make it include the Crows' future 1st, because the lost value of a year is compensated for by the probability of getting a much higher draft pick.

I also disagree that plans for recruiting one of the Suns' SA players comes into the calculations for Adelaide. There is too much uncertainty to have that disrupting the current year's recruiting. If the Crows want to walk Dawson to the PSD, they might as well plan to walk Lukosius to the PSD as well, so there would be no need for the Crows to have draft picks to recruit players, if we want to really get cynical about this.

The fear of KB's evil eye holds more power than the lure of the PSD.

[Steve]

A future draft is always worth less than the current year because you're forfeiting one year's value of a 1st round pick.

I think that very much depends on where your list is at and what you would do with that player for the 12 months in question.

If you’re in rebuild mode then definitely you want as many good kids in ASAP, give them games and develop them.

But if like us you already have a lot of youngsters struggling to get a game, there is benefit in pushing picks back into the next year.

Better to get a top talent in next year, have them develop over 2023/24 and really start contributing from 2025 onwards. We already have plenty who are capable of doing that between 2022-2025.

And then you can also gain if a club wants to trade out of a future draft for points, you accurately predict a team dropping down the ladder, or have some luck - GWS did OK trading for a future pick last year.

[Auntie.Gerald]

i suspect we know what North want to do and equally do Adelaide re PSD

I also think the only reason we would not match Adelaides offer is because we can find another player that is key for us to run at the top4 in 2022. ie a player or a role that we see is more important for a final series than Dawsos role on the wing

Otherwise I think if we are confident that Dawso can not get to Adelaide via the PSD then we will match Dawso's offer by Adelaide and he will stay........unless the offer by Adelaide to Dawso is just silly monopoly money

[liz]

i suspect we know what North want to do and equally do Adelaide re PSD

I also think the only reason we would not match Adelaides offer is because we can find another player that is key for us to run at the top4 in 2022. ie a player or a role that we see is more important for a final series than Dawsos role on the wing

Otherwise I think if we are confident that Dawso can not get to Adelaide via the PSD then we will match Dawso's offer by Adelaide and he will stay........unless the offer by Adelaide to Dawso is just silly monopoly money

That's not how it works.

[Aprilbr]

I would agree with Ludwig that in most cases, a current draft pick is worth more than an uncertain one for the following season. However, I think that this draft is so uncertain due to the lack of established form for these young players. According, a 2022 pick could be more valuable on this occasion.

[Aprilbr]

That's not how it works.

Agreed. Judas Dawson is not a restricted free agent.

[Bangalore Swans]

We really need North and GC to get excited in the PSD. That would up Dawsons asking price in order to make it through to the Crows.

The Crows may decide at that point that they don’t want a severely overpriced player on their books and stay with their original offer. This means that North or GC would take him.

He then may decide that it’s better the devil you know and stick with the Swans for two more years until he’s a free agent.

Or the Crows can do a fair deal of a 8-12 first round pick.

[Bangalore Swans]

I would agree with Ludwig that in most cases, a current draft pick is worth more than an uncertain one for the following season. However, I think that this draft is so uncertain due to the lack of established form for these young players. According, a 2022 pick could be more valuable on this occasion.

I think in the Swans case that future picks are more valuable. The Academy allows to predict the available talent years out.

[Markwebbos]

Assuming Crows don’t make finals next year that’s a top ten pick, which feels reasonable to me.

[Ludwig]

I think that very much depends on where your list is at and what you would do with that player for the 12 months in question.

If you’re in rebuild mode then definitely you want as many good kids in ASAP, give them games and develop them.

But if like us you already have a lot of youngsters struggling to get a game, there is benefit in pushing picks back into the next year.

Better to get a top talent in next year, have them develop over 2023/24 and really start contributing from 2025 onwards. We already have plenty who are capable of doing that between 2022-2025.

And then you can also gain if a club wants to trade out of a future draft for points, you accurately predict a team dropping down the ladder, or have some luck - GWS did OK trading for a future pick last year.

I agree that there are strategic reasons for pushing picks into future drafts and I have argued that we are in such a position this year. But this is not the same as what I said about the relative value of current and future picks as a general principle. For example:

Let's say we could draft an 18 yo Errol Gulden in 2020 or use that pick to take an 18 yo Errol Gulden in 2021. What would be preferable? If we take option 2, then we would lose the value of Errol's 2020 season. It seems that you would pick up the lost year at the end of Errol's career. Let's say you lose Errol in 2035 in case 1 versus 2036 in case 2. But if you play this out, one day the world comes to an end and you just lose out by delaying drafting the player a year later.

Another example: Let's assume that Bailey Smith from the 2018 draft and Caleb Serong from the 2019 draft go on to have identical careers. Which selection would be better? This is the same as the Gulden example. As of today, the Bulldogs have benefited from 3 years of Smith, while Freo have benefited from 2 years of Serong.

What is the value, in draft points, of 1 year of average service from a top rated player? I don't know, but there is certainly some non-trivial additional value in it.

A closely related question is: What is the draft pick a club would give up to get Clayton Oliver on loan for a year? Maybe a 2nd round pick? Maybe someone who is familiar with the player loan market in soccer would have a better feel for this.

I'm just making a rough estimate on this, but if we take out all the anomalies, like Covid effects, so all years are rated equally, I think a pick 15 in the current year is equal to a pick 10 or better in the following year. It's an interesting exercise that I have never heard discussed. It's like the question I pose almost every year: What do clubs and players receive in compensation for playing finals games? I've never gotten an answer on this either, but someone must know.